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  1. JB_Iowa's Avatar
    I appreciate the stats, Andrew but there seems to be a gap between the statistics and perception. And I wonder why that is?

    Is there something that observation tells us that can't be defined statistically? Even before last night's game, what percentage of the people who comment on this board (or of all fans for that matter), would have wanted Mauer to come up in that situation and what percentage would have had a sinking feeling in the pit of their stomach?

    For reasons I can't explain, Mauer doesn't inspire much confidence in me. And it sounds like I'm not the only one. So what explains the discrepancy between our "gut feelings" and the stats you've cited?
  2. deanlambrecht's Avatar
    Probably the biggest problem with the Clutch statistic is sample size. Even a multi-year veteran like Mauer takes a great deal of Clutch opportunities to compile statistically significant numbers.

    @TwinsFanLV, I understand your frustration, but I think it's misdirected here. This post is about Joe Mauer's ability to hit with RISP and in Clutch situations. The numbers support the notion that he's especially productive in such situations. If the "only" stat the counts is wins, then each year there are 29 "losers" and 1 "winner," and oddly enough under your construct, the "winner" is not even necessarily the team that wins the World Series (because that team doesn't always and doesn't necessarily have the most wins). So I think your notion of the "one stat that counts" can only lead you to a frustrating end. There's much more going on in a game than that, and I think you'll have more fun with the sport overall if you start appreciating the nuances, as frustrating as losses can be. Trust me, I'm not terribly happy, either.
  3. Twins Fan From Afar's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by TwinsFanLV
    I think you must be campaigning for a job as the Twins' chief apologist. Ther is only one stat that counts. wins! Runner on third, less than 2 outs, $23 million, home town, Head and Shoulders boy at the plate....fails!

    The Twins are 5-12. Any in depth analyisis on that? Or are you "glad" they aren't starting too fast?
    I think it's abundantly clear that Mauer, Willingham and Doumit failed last night.
    Does the fact that Mauer is now paid $23 million a year, and is now a spokesman for Head and Shoulders, make it more likely that he will drive that run in, as compared to when he was making league minimum, or $12 million a season, or before he was a paid spokesman?

    I'm not sure why you are so snarky. I'm no apologist for this team -- they're not good. In fact, they've been awful thus far. I guess I went into this season expecting, at best, a .500 team, but hoping against reason for better. All I was doing in this post was looking up some data to figure out whether what was in my memory -- Mauer's failures this season to drive in RISP -- was reflected in the stats. Simple as that.
  4. TwinsFanLV's Avatar
    I think you must be campaigning for a job as the Twins' chief apologist. Ther is only one stat that counts. wins! Runner on third, less than 2 outs, $23 million, home town, Head and Shoulders boy at the plate....fails!

    The Twins are 5-12. Any in depth analyisis on that? Or are you "glad" they aren't starting too fast?
  5. TwinsGuy55422's Avatar
    Thanks for checking into that. Those are interesting findings.
  6. Twins Fan From Afar's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by TwinsGuy55422
    Mauer did look upset on his way back to the dugout. I am going to the game tonight and I expect he will come out with something to prove. I enjoyed your analysis. After reading this, I got to thinking about the following question. I wonder what Mauer's career numbers with RISP would show when you factor the score of the game and inning into the equation. For example, do the numbers hold when he comes up with RISP in a close game in the 7th inning or later? I don't know these stats off the top of my head, but I am guessing his average is still good but maybe not quite as great as his overall batting average with RISP. I love Mauer and always have so I am excited to see him healthy and producing.
    That is a fantastic question. Definitely deserving of its own post. I don't have an exact answer. Looking on fangraphs, they have a stat called Clutch. Here's how they define it:
    "Clutch measures how well a player performed in high leverage situations. Its calculated as such:
    Clutch = (WPA / pLI) WPA/LI
    In the words of David Appelman, this calculation measures, how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. It also compares a player against himself, so a player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when hes an overall .300 hitter is not considered clutch.
    Clutch does a good job of describing the past, but it does very little towards predicting the future. Simply because one player was clutch at one point does not mean they will continue to perform well in high-leverage situations (and vice versa). Very few players have the ability to be consistently clutch over the course of their careers, and choking in one season does not beget the same in the future."

    They go on to say the majority of players scale between 1 and -1, with 0 being average. So where does Mauer figure on their scale? Very good.
    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...ion=C#advanced

    Scroll down to the "Win Probability" section, and it's all the way on the right. For his career, he's at a .99, just .01 below "great," according to Fangraphs. For this season, though, he's at a -.25 -- just below average.

    I'm not sure that I really buy into this stat. It doesn't completely answer your question about how he does in high leverage RISP situations, either, but it's at the very least interesting.
  7. TwinsGuy55422's Avatar
    Mauer did look upset on his way back to the dugout. I am going to the game tonight and I expect he will come out with something to prove. I enjoyed your analysis. After reading this, I got to thinking about the following question. I wonder what Mauer's career numbers with RISP would show when you factor the score of the game and inning into the equation. For example, do the numbers hold when he comes up with RISP in a close game in the 7th inning or later? I don't know these stats off the top of my head, but I am guessing his average is still good but maybe not quite as great as his overall batting average with RISP. I love Mauer and always have so I am excited to see him healthy and producing.
    Updated 04-24-2012 at 09:36 AM by TwinsGuy55422
  8. Twins Fan From Afar's Avatar
    Thanks for the comments, guys. I'm a little worried about a couple guys getting called up (Lucas French, especially if Scott Diamond gets the MLB call), but I guess that's what this team is really for.
    I hope Guerra continues to shine, too.
  9. Shane Wahl's Avatar
    Yeah, they have surprised me this year (mainly Bigley and Romero). They should only get better. And Angel Morales is looming . . .
  10. TwinsGuy55422's Avatar
    Great update on the Rock Cats. I always enjoy reading your work. I am particularly intrigued by Guerra's success since becoming a reliever and am excited for him to continue to move through the system!
  11. caitlynpoli's Avatar
    Great Twins video
    http://youtu.be/U9Yqqrdgfco
  12. shs_59's Avatar
    I was wondering the same thing>?

    IT was Wimmers turn last night, he did not pitch, nor is he scheduled tonight....

    could we have another aOhh ohh on our hands? Please be 100% Healthy Alex!
  13. Twins Fan From Afar's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by TwinsFanLV
    You're "glad" the Twins aren't paying for an Ace? Is it YOUR money? The Pohlads raise ticket prices after a 99 loss season. I don't CARE how much it takes to buy a winner, just DO it!! Have you ever heard a Yankee fan complain that their 27 World Series titles cost TOO MUCH money?
    You're right -- I don't have a specific and personal interest in the Twins' payroll, and it's not my money. I wish they would have spent $150 million back in 2010. It was the best team in years, and could have even been better.

    But we are fans of a team that apparently has a pretty strict budget. I can complain about it for a while (and I do), but then it becomes tiresome. And their financial strategy certainly is not going to change, if the last few decades are any indication. So instead of posting dozens of rants on the payroll situation, I focus on other things, like how they are allocating the money.
  14. TwinsFanLV's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Twins Fan From Afar
    I'm not exactly sure what your point is. Mauer and Morneau were under preexisting contracts when they suffered injuries, or underperformed, or whatever you want to call it.

    Check out my blog, Twins Fan From Afar. I was not at all in favor of their decision to lower payroll going into 2012. I still don't get it. All I'm suggesting in this post is that, given what has happened so far this season, this team wouldn't really have benefitted from the presence of an ace. Sure, the Twins would be more entertaining once every five days, but that's about it.

    If we're talking about 2014 or 2015, yes, the Twins need to spend on a top-of-the-line starter. For now, though, tell me, what will one get them, other than 5-10 more wins for a third or fourth place team?
    You're "glad" the Twins aren't paying for an Ace? Is it YOUR money? The Pohlads raise ticket prices after a 99 loss season. I don't CARE how much it takes to buy a winner, just DO it!! Have you ever heard a Yankee fan complain that their 27 World Series titles cost TOO MUCH money?
  15. Twins Fan From Afar's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by TwinsFanLV
    Whose money am I supposed to be worried about wasting??
    I want to see the Twins win games!! Using your reasoning, aren't the Twins also "wasting" money on Mauer and Morneau??
    I would enjoy seeing more wins and hearing fewer excuses. Whatever an Ace costs, the Twins will never be a hood team without one. The Pohlads have plenty of money.
    I'm not exactly sure what your point is. Mauer and Morneau were under preexisting contracts when they suffered injuries, or underperformed, or whatever you want to call it.

    Check out my blog, Twins Fan From Afar. I was not at all in favor of their decision to lower payroll going into 2012. I still don't get it. All I'm suggesting in this post is that, given what has happened so far this season, this team wouldn't really have benefitted from the presence of an ace. Sure, the Twins would be more entertaining once every five days, but that's about it.

    If we're talking about 2014 or 2015, yes, the Twins need to spend on a top-of-the-line starter. For now, though, tell me, what will one get them, other than 5-10 more wins for a third or fourth place team?
  16. TwinsFanLV's Avatar
    Whose money am I supposed to be worried about wasting??
    I want to see the Twins win games!! Using your reasoning, aren't the Twins also "wasting" money on Mauer and Morneau??
    I would enjoy seeing more wins and hearing fewer excuses. Whatever an Ace costs, the Twins will never be a hood team without one. The Pohlads have plenty of money.
  17. Shane Wahl's Avatar
    I am going to ignore the Wimmers thing because I choose to not panic about the entire pitching personnel throughout the whole organization at the moment . . .

    But, sorry, have De Los Santos and Dolenc at the top of the lineup coming to the plate the most is not going to produce as many wins as otherwise. I was taken aback when I saw the lineup. I would probably go with Hicks and Florimon at the top.
  18. StormJH1's Avatar
    Totally agree with this take. Although I think more people were asking for the Twins to sign an ace than you may think. Despite our colossal depth of problems all over the roster, there are people who legitimately think we should've thrown $20 million at C.J. Wilson or Cliff Lee so we at least had one good ace. First, a free agent pitcher has to WANT to come play for you. Other than a slight pitcher's park, there's really no motivating factor for an ace to want to come here as opposed to LA or Texas (or Boston/NYY, etc.). Second, it would have made virtually no difference to the success of the team - not when you can't support the ace adequately with runs, and the 2-5 options are a mess. Look at the pitchers Seattle has had and been forced to dump because they weren't making a run. But they've been busy actually drafting power arms, so their chances of having a solid rotation 2 or 3 years from now are light years beyond the Twins'.
  19. Twins Fan From Afar's Avatar
    Thanks for the comments.
    With respect to Guerra, as you noted, it's a small sample size. But at the same time, we should take note of the 8-1 K to walk ratio, and the fact that he's only given up 3 hits in 8 innings. In Aaron Gleeman's write-up on Guerra, he noted that, although Guerra is a failed starter, his bullpen numbers at New Britain were solid last year: 2.77 ERA and 65-13 K to BB ratio in over 50 innings. This is a long-winded way of saying that, given all the pitching problems for the Twins thus far, if Guerra can keep doing what he started last season, and what he's continuing now, I'd be surprised if he's not at least in AAA by the end of the summer, if not MN.
  20. Bark's Lounge's Avatar
    Hey Twins Fan from Afar. Deolis Guerra's stats look good so far this season although it is a very, very small sample size. What is your over/under on him being called up to the big club before September? Not that September is a guarantee for him.
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