What is the success rate of top 5 16 year old prospects versus top 50 versus the field?
It was not so much that the Yankees were planning on going over, it was the amount over(in the range of 12 -15 million over their 2-2.5 million cap. It could also be they are planning on using this to restock their farm system which is weak. I do not know what would be available to the Yankees on this plan(if there are several very interesting players they feel it would be worthwhile to sign). Or if this is designed to force a rule change. They watched the Cubs spend double there allotment this year and net two of the top 5 players and 2 others in the top 30. The money the Yankees are quoted as their budget would allow them to sign almost if not all of the top 30 players eligible this year in the market. Not all would make it, it would just give the Yankees a competitive edge for one year in this market. But if the Yankees were able to use this strategy every other year, maybe they figure that agents and friends would hold back players until the Yankees could be players. Do not know the answer, it is just another way of a big market team using the system to their advantage. It is also why most other sports either have hard caps or weighted caps and drafts.
Significantly going over the cap also results in being only able to sign players for a limited amount the following year., 250000 or 500000 depending on how much you go over. If you like enough players one year and figure on trading your cap money the following year it would make sense to go over. If you figure they are going to change the rules again, it would make sense to go over if money is not a limiting factor.
An international draft is definitely the way to go. In the short term, were does the money from the luxury tax go? If it is distributed to the other teams, then I say let the stupid Yankees overpay and give us more money to be more competitive. I don't think any team owns international markets per se, I have been happy with how the Twins have scouted and signed a number of young guys over the past several years. But again, a draft needs to be in place at some point.
I think the Yankees are just saying this now so MLB will step in and stop a team from doing what that Cubs were smart enough to pull off last year. They are just upset that they didn't think of it first and think that if it is eliminated players will want to sign with the Yankees because they have a great history of paying high salaries.
If the Twins can't/won't overpay and improve their team via FA or trades, the FO needs to seriously consider trading Mauer and eat some of his contract for a few really good prospects.
It makes me sad to watch the Twins waste such an amazing talent like Mauer.
I've been wondering about trading away Doumit, but I might like your plan better: keep him now since he value is iffy and roll the dice on him as a midyear acquisition. I guess I'd want to see how things shake out. If he's going to be spending a lot of time at DH, I'm not going to be happy.
I can't go with Sizemore, but I wouldn't be totally opposed to them signing someone to play cf for a year. But I think I'd also be satisfied with Clete/Mastro holding the spot until either Hicks or Buxton takes it away.
Lots of candidates for the starting rotation. I think Gibson and Worley are good candidates for bounceback seasons. I would like to see the Twins sign Johnson and maybe Vargas. I think they should replace Morneau with Morales (more of a DH, but I like Mauer playing a lot of first) and Morales has negligible platoon splits. Casey Fien and Roenicke should probably be gone (hopefully the Twins could get something for Casey), Hicks needs to win back center field (I think he will) and Parmelee will need to re-establish himself as a big leaguer, probably starting as a bench player.
Josh Johnson I can see coming here. I personally would like to see them give Hughes a contract similar to Corrira's and maybe add some incentives because he is younger than almost any of the FA pitchers and he's a fly ball pitcher which would be a good fit at TF. They need to do something with the atrocious hitting. I've followed baseball my whole life and cannot remember so many hitters batting not even below .250 but in the .210-.230's.
Almost the entire team has those batting averages. They make the Gagne's, Lombo's, Pags, etc look like all stars. Absolutely horrible. Imagine if they could hit .250 where'd this team be. Also, I don't understand the ripping on Corrira. He's been our best pitcher this season especially the last couple outings. If any of us on TD would've said ERA 4.50 +/- in the AL coming from NL when the signing occurred, we all would've been estatic.
My plan for the 2014 Twins is to be drunk until Sano, Rosario, and Buxton arrive. I'll let you judge which is the better plan.
Missed Gibson, but do not think he is a lock. Only one starting pitcher from FA would be a repeat of this year, only worse with less hitting.
Gibson and Hicks are locks.
Looks like another team that will scrape the bottom of the AVG w/ RISP, and a starting staff that will be in the bottom third of ERA in the AL.
And that would be with signing two SP's. Makes me sad.
I see a lot of fantasy FA (esp. pitcher) signings, not just here but other comment broads. I know that it's a FO excuse too, but it takes two to tangle. Minnesota is not a place were FA have on the top of there list, at least the front line FA. Any no way would Ryan sign any pitcher for 15$ a year, esp how Lincecum has pitch last 2 years. Johnson at 7$ is maybe reasonable, but it better be incentive based. Siezmore I don't see coming here, esp with our outfield depth in the minors. I think they give Hicks another shot or even Mastro starting. Depends on ST again (a sad repeat of last year)
I am supportive of Chris Colabello making the squad. I really think he can hit and field either 3B or 1B. When Plouffe is injured (note I said when, not if) Colabello would be my 1st choice for 3B. I hope he gets some reps there this spring.
Plouffe was not included because he has all of this year and probably some of next as I do not see Sano here until 2015-2016. He is more likely a person to be replaced by an FA if the Twins are good in 2014. He would have to have a bad year this year for that to happen.
Maybe Dozier produces like he did in AA with the MLB club, then in 2015, you have Dozier at SS, Rosario at 2B, and Santana UTIL. Hopefully Sano is at 3B, and Vargas/Parmelee/anyone good, is at 1B. OF would be Roberts/Hicks/Arcia, with ultra-prospects Buxton and Kepler in AA or higher. Not even mentioning how good the pitching staff could be in 2015 with trades of Morneau and/or Willingham for pitchers-only. Then the draft in June......!!!! Could be a real nice squad in 2015
Thanks beckmt. Thought provoking article.
I would probably add Plouffe to the list. In the minor leagues until 2011 he never had an OPS greater than .736. That is not a stat that screams "big league third baseman!".
His OPS for June and July were excellent, but the rest of the year was pretty weak.
We all hope he found his swing, but I can't imagine where it was hiding for 7 years.