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  1. Thrylos's Avatar
    I should probably add the Punta Gorda info (Allegiant flies there from my home airport too,) but it is so infrequent and Cedar Rapids or Des Moines are the closest airports to the Twin Cities for that route. Looks like they discontinued the Burlington flights too. Plattsburg, NY is the closest airport they flight to PGD now. The full list is here.

    Fort Myers traffic is not heavy, other than the jams right before and right after game time, which are expected. It compares favorably to most places, at least in my experience
  2. Thrylos's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Otwins
    Thanks for putting this together. I am going down March 11th. The last time I was at the Twins spring training game I was looking forward to seeing Rod Carew hit. He bunted his first time up and left the game after that AB. They were playing Montreal. Montreal had just moved Gary Carter to catcher. He had three passed balls and cost them the game. So I think I need an updated guide.
    That would have been at Tinker Field in Orlando. You just got to see that neighborhood these days...
  3. ChiTownTwinsFan's Avatar
    Punta Gorda has an airport, too ... Allegiant Air flies into there. It's an airline that services smaller communities such as Duluth or Cedar Rapids or Rockford, IL. It's a smaller airport so is much less hassle. My sister flies in and out of there from Burlington, VT.

    Also, there IS a public transit system in Ft. Myers. It just isn't as convenient as I don't think it runs quite as often as it would in a large city. But there is a bus service and there is a stop on Plantation Rd not far from the stadium. Again, since I drive when I'm there, I really don't know how/when they operate, but it's not non-existent.

    Biking is also a good alternative if you aren't coming from too far and like to bike. There are off-street pathways everywhere.

    And traffic is VERY heavy in March. I'm not sure what you think 'not so bad' is ... and I'm comparing it to where I live most of the year ... Chicago.

    Also, the 'rumor' is (I heard this from friends who live in 'the Fort,') that Ft. Myers Beach is 'sold out' for the season. I wouldn't stay there anyway as getting in and out of there this time of year is next to impossible and not so convenient if you want to spend time at the ballpark ... or visit anywhere else in the area for that matter.

    As far as where to stay, hotels are fine, but look into renting a condo, especially if you are staying a week or more. They are plentiful and allow for more space and save from eating every meal out. Most condos are set up to sleep 6 so the cost can be shared if you want to go in with some friends.
  4. Otwins's Avatar
    Thanks for putting this together. I am going down March 11th. The last time I was at the Twins spring training game I was looking forward to seeing Rod Carew hit. He bunted his first time up and left the game after that AB. They were playing Montreal. Montreal had just moved Gary Carter to catcher. He had three passed balls and cost them the game. So I think I need an updated guide.
  5. The Wise One's Avatar
    I would be more worried about the lack of upside of most of the recent receipients of the award when the won the award. All of the pitchers worked hard to get to where they got. Indeed it may be that for most that one season may be the pinacle of their career.
  6. Thrylos's Avatar
    - FIP and the relative are supposed to be ballpark neutral. xPE is normalized for BABIP, which, allegedly will be the one place that slap hits will show.
    - Not sure that the dome affects Ks and BBs
    - Those PE/xPE ranges are for modern era (2000+) pitchers. I have not yet adjusted it to the oldies. And, yes, Cy Young winners are not the best pitchers around. xPE/PE, like FIP/xFIP and SIERA, does not always translate to W-L and ERA, which are the things the voters are looking for.
    - fWAR (which is FIP and not ERA based) I bet is on Nolasco's favor, but WAR is good to look at cumulative performance and career comparisons (like in HOF situations). Rate measurements, like the above are better suited for performance evaluations/predictions.
  7. Winston Smith's Avatar
    Not sure this is apples to apples. One pitching in the dome with turf and in the American League and the other pitching in the Natl League in a hot muggy park with grass.
    Of course, maybe all these stats factor that in?
  8. twinsfan34's Avatar
    As Rikker49 said, my thoughts was Radke played in the dome. Maybe some splits (and enough data) to get his EP home and away.

    The other thought....WAR sure loves Brad Radke, but doesn't care so much for Ricky Nolasco.

    Your EP formula, here and here...I almost think it accounts too heavily for BB factor. It's denominator has both a squared and a multiple factor...

    = 9(K^2)/(BB^2+BB*H)

    I, personally, would weigh hits allowed greater than BB. Hits can move baserunners an extra base as well as the added element of extra bases on errors that BB's do not.

    A little application to other seasons...at a quick glance.

    2013
    Clayton Kershaw yields 42.89 or "Ace"

    2010
    Hernandez CY year yields 26.3 or "#1/#2 starter"

    1981
    Nolan Ryan (195 ERA+, .188 BAA, .216 SLG%) yields 15.62 or borderline "#3/#4 starter"
    Fernando Venuzeula (won the CY that year) yields 23.71 or a "#2/#3 starter"


    Nolasco's 2009 (age 26)...he just couldn't strand baserunners relative to other years...and was also giving up a higher slg%.

    I'd like to see a weighted % of stranded baserunners with a weighted WHIP. To me, an "Ace" doesn't allow runs. He can get strikeouts when needed or pitch to a ground ball. ERA is kinda the raw version of this, but a weighted % baserunners stranded over the WHIP would probably give a better indicator.

    The other would be "ERA under a save situation sans the inning requirement" that is, ERA allowed while game is less than 3 runs difference, 2 runs difference, and 1 run difference. I'd then weight them for an adjusted ace factor. The metric would be like this wAce+.
  9. DocBauer's Avatar
    Thank you for this elaborate breakdown. I'm a bit old fashioned in that I'm still not up on all the advanced metrics. However, just looking at his career peripheral numbers, I've felt he was a quality performer who perhaps underachieved, or at least didn't get the results you might expect. Also felt that some of that might have simply been playing on poor teams in the past.
  10. rikker49's Avatar
    And Radke pitched in the Dome
  11. VandyTwinsFan's Avatar
    Nice find! I like looking at team statistics.

    While not the same thing as clutch, I watched our team last year in regards to productive outs made. It's a pretty sad sight. Guys with more than 25 opportunities:

    Florimon 42%
    Dozier 39%
    Plouffe 32%
    League Ave 31%
    Hicks 30%
    Arcia 27%
    Parmelee 27%
    Mauer 26%
    Morneau 25%
    Doumit 20%
    Willingham 17%
    Thomas 16%
    Colabello* 6%

    *only 18 opportunities. Close to my cutoff, but it was so low I added it.

    If you look at percentage of times our guys scored someone from 3rd with less than 2 outs, Morneau jumps over the average along with Florimon and Dozier. That's it. Arcia, Mauer, Pinto, and Doumit were close to average. Plouffe takes a nose dive and sucks as bad as Willingham (both at 32%, league average was 51%). I hated it when Willing-strikeout-ham stepped to the plate looking to score Dozier from 3rd after Mauer singled him over. Just walk to the dugout guys because Willingham is going to either K or pop up to the infield and then Plouffe will hit a fly ball just too short to be worth anything.

    This all just goes to show, if we had Brian Dozier playing every position then the team would've been THE GREATEST TEAM EVER!!! AAAGH!!!
  12. Thrylos's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by pierre75275
    Is there any way to get the league averages for that information? Or is zero just the average?
    League average does not make much sense for this. It is an individual metric. It measures how much better one does in high leverage situations compared to all situations. Zero means that someone does the same in high leverage situation as in all other situations. So zero is the "normal" baseline, i.e. the norm for comparison purposes.
  13. pierre75275's Avatar
    Is there any way to get the league averages for that information? Or is zero just the average?
  14. howieramone's Avatar
    Every time I hear the words shoulder surgery, I cross the guy off the list and go to the next guy. In this case Gibson.
  15. Thrylos's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Mayhem25
    But more often than not, wouldn't pitchers 11-15 be of lesser quality than pitchers 1-10? Injuries obviously would dictate how many BP pitchers are used. But for example, Perkins will pitch about 65 innings no matter if the entire bullpen pitches 400 or 500 innings. So the pitchers accounting for the additional 100 IP from the bullpen are going to be of lesser quality and with it the stats will take a hit. I am not arguing that pens get tired, but more that fact that the more IP the bullpen pitches, those innings will be given to lesser RP's. I would think that some improvement from the SP (more IP) would correlate an improvement in the BP.
    That all depends, really. I would argue that Tonkin is probably a better pitcher than Roenicke and Pressly who were one of the original squad. Heck, Tyler Robertson made the team out of ST... The pen has a way to balance out. September in non-competing teams might be a different story, but it just balances out.
  16. Mayhem25's Avatar
    But more often than not, wouldn't pitchers 11-15 be of lesser quality than pitchers 1-10? Injuries obviously would dictate how many BP pitchers are used. But for example, Perkins will pitch about 65 innings no matter if the entire bullpen pitches 400 or 500 innings. So the pitchers accounting for the additional 100 IP from the bullpen are going to be of lesser quality and with it the stats will take a hit. I am not arguing that pens get tired, but more that fact that the more IP the bullpen pitches, those innings will be given to lesser RP's. I would think that some improvement from the SP (more IP) would correlate an improvement in the BP.
  17. Thrylos's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Mayhem25
    I would think the bullpen numbers would probably look worse because of the brutal SP leaving far too many innings for the RPs, thus the RP being worn down. How many IP did the bullpen have compared to the rest of MLB?
    Actually the correct measurement for that is IP/appearance because if a pen has used 10 different pitchers to pitch 400 innings would result to more tired pitchers than if used 15 different pitchers to pitch 420 innings, correct?

    As far as IP/Appearance goes, if you round down to one decimal (more decimals does not make sense), you will see that pretty much the whole league is at the same place:

    Astros 1.2
    Pirates 1.2
    Athletics 1.1
    Blue Jays 1.1
    Mariners 1.1
    Marlins 1.1
    Nationals 1.1
    Padres 1.1
    Rockies 1.1
    Royals 1.1
    Twins 1.1
    Yankees 1.1
    Angels 1.0
    Braves 1.0
    Brewers 1.0
    Cardinals 1.0
    Cubs 1.0
    Diamondbacks 1.0
    Dodgers 1.0
    Giants 1.0
    Indians 1.0
    Mets 1.0
    Philies 1.0
    Rangers 1.0
    Rays 1.0
    Reds 1.0
    Tigers 1.0
    White Sox 1.0

    I think that the difference of 0.2 innings in spread (less than a batter faced) is insignificant. There goes another myth about "tired pens..."
  18. Mayhem25's Avatar
    I would like to see some numbers on the bullpen for the final month of the regular season compared to the first 5 months or so. I would think the bullpen numbers would probably look worse because of the brutal SP leaving far too many innings for the RPs, thus the RP being worn down. How many IP did the bullpen have compared to the rest of MLB?
  19. DAM DC Twins Fans's Avatar
    Great article--like the category specification--that makes the pitching roster look reasonable. If you assume that Deduno is on DL in April, then ST is a fight for 5th starter between Diamond and Worley. Loser fights with Duensing and Swarzek for 2 long spots in pen and that loser is gone. So that's 9 spots. Group D battles to fill out pen and Gibson goes to Rochester.
  20. Otwins's Avatar
    Thanks for the breakdown. I am glad you made the point that there is room on the staff for any pitcher that is out of options. I believe that by signing three starting pitchers they have also inproved the bullpen by increasing the competition and hopefully the new starters throw more innings. I do think some of the bullpen numbers would improve if their innings went down. I don't recall losing many games when we had a lead in the late innings. The bullpen was fine and should be better this year.
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