Over at Beyond The Boxscore, Chris St John revealed a system for predicting major league success of minor leaguers based on prospect age and level. The system is called JAVIER (named after Cubs SS prospect Javier Baez), and you can read about it here. The system predicts whether a prospect will bust, have an average career, or be a productive player (defined as having at least 1000 MLB PAs and producing at least 0.0275 VORP per PA - read about VORP here), based on a dataset of 41,238 player-seasons
Updated 07-17-2014 at 01:01 PM by Willihammer
Resuming where we left off, we're now going to compare the Twins' successes in the 6 methods of talent acquisition versus the rest of the American League.
Part 1: here
Part 2: here
TWINS VS AMERICAN LEAGUE
1. Amateur Draft
We already know the Twins have acquired the most positional talent and the 2nd most pitching talent from the Amateur draft, as measured by WAR. But roster space is limited. How does the average Amateur
Updated 09-26-2013 at 06:29 PM by Willihammer
In Part 1, we looked at the Twins history of acquiring positional talent via the Amateur Draft, Amateur Free Agency, the Rule 5 Draft, Trades, Waivers, and Free Agency, during the Terry Ryan era (1995-2013). Here we will do the same for pitchers.
1. Amateur Draft
Since 1995, the Twins trail only the Toronto Blue Jays in their reliance on the Amateur Draft for pitching talent, getting 136 player-seasons from 39 pitchers, good for 120 WAR. Notably, Brad
Updated 09-25-2013 at 03:38 PM by Willihammer
Last Friday Terry Ryan spoke to Paul Allen about Free Agency:
If we're going to do anything here and succeed in the near and long long-term Paul, it's probably no going to be via free agency. It's going to be drafting and international acquisitions and trades and so forth. Very rarely do you end up succeeding because of free agency.
Free Agency is only one of the 6 most common methods of acquiring talent. The others are the Amateur Draft, Amateur Free Agency, Rule 5
Updated 09-26-2013 at 03:51 PM by Willihammer
Since 2006, 851 players have logged at least 200 PAs in the Florida State League (High A). This is a sample of players that includes guys like Giancarlo Stanton (age 19), Jay Bruce (20), JP Arencibia (22), Allen Craig (22), and Domonic Brown (21).
Another 746 have logged at least 200 PAs in the Eastern League (AA) since 2006. Players include Brandon Belt (22), Matt Wieters (22), Pedro Alvarez (22), Ike Davis (22), Kevin Kouzmanoff (24), Josh Reddick (22), Carlos Santana (23), Brennan
Updated 08-22-2013 at 05:17 PM by Willihammer
As we're all aware, step 4 of the 21 Point Plan to More Twins Wins! is upon us. Step 4 of course is the first of a subseries of steps which looks at how the Twins AAAA bubble guys figure to fit into the next wave of All Star talent currently playing in Cedar Rapids and Ft Myers. Dozier, Hicks, Parmelee, Plouffe, Florimon, Gibson, Deduno, DeVries, and Hendriks. In Step 4, we isolate the position players.
Smarter minds than I have calculated that the 150 PA plateau marks the point where
Aaron Hicks has struck out 22 times in his first 17 big league games. His K-rate currently sits at 31.4%, tied for 10th worst in baseball with jay Bruce. a career 23.7% k-rate batter.
According to Charlie Adams at Beyond the Boxscore (courtesy of Pizza Cutter at StatSpeak.net) k-rates stabilize after about 150 PAs. But instead of waiting 20 more games for Hicks to reach that benchmark, I'm going to instead look at contact rate and guesstimate what Hicks' true k-rate might be based off
Updated 04-26-2013 at 03:34 PM by Willihammer
It was pretty obvious that Oswalt struggled as a starter down in Texas last year, earning him a couple different assignments to the bullpen. I went through his pitchf/x data for the season to differentiate Oswalt's effectiveness in the two roles and found some evidence that he could still be a valuable piece coming out of the pen in 2013. In a small sample, Oswalt's fastballs missed bats about twice as often when he was coming out of relief (15.93% versus 8.39%). I believe this is a good sign for
Updated 11-20-2012 at 01:22 PM by Willihammer
Ben Revere doesn't swing and miss often. So he doesn't reach many 3 ball counts, and what follows below can be taken with heavy salt.
Still, if there is meaning in his small sample of 3-ball data, then Ben Revere's high contact percentage allows for absolutist decisionmaking at the plate in order to maximize on-base percentage.
Observe, Ben Revere is already a patient hitter:
But Revere puts balls
Over the last three seasons, (min 450 IP), Jeremy Hellickson has accumulated 6.8 Fielding dependent wins. FDP wins are calculated based on a pitchers combined ability to limit hard contact on balls in play and strand runners ie. throw strikes from the stretch, limit the running game, etc.
Hellickson's 6.8 FDP wins leads all qualified pitchers, by far. Next closest is Jared Weaver, at 5.4 FDP wins.
Which brings me to Deduno, who in 10 starts has already accumulate 1.0 FDP-wins.