Nice work with correlation coefficients. So how do you not give up hits? How does the bats missed data relate to this discussion? If teams are not getting good contact, maybe there are less hits. That is a little different than strikeouts. Is your spread sheet available ?
Heart. The game is methodical. It is a study in average, statistics, leverage, and productivity. I say Morneau is as much of a bridge to the future as Mauer. It just makes sense, unless Toronto trumps Minnesota heart with Canadian heart.
I often wear a Canadian 2006 WBC jersey with #27 Morneau on the back. Morneau has made a point of talking with me during Spring Training, away games, and signing baseballs for my two sons. He always asks, "Are you from Canada?" I admit that I spent a few years guiding out of Ft. Francis, but I'm not Canadian." He would love to be a Twin, but Toronto is noble, too. It's about the heart.
BTW: The crowds tend to ask, "Why #27?" when they see the Morneau jersey from 2006. The quick answer is that Larry Walker had #33 before Mornie. I like to say, "#27 is #33, according to the metric system."
White sox i think are probably going to have 5 to 7 less wins this year than last year. I base this on that Tigers, Cleveland, and KC all have gotten better this year from last year and assuming that each of teams wins couple more from chicago this alone could take away 6 wins. I think Chicago will be better than the Twins but right now i don't see much difference between them Cleveland and KC. Sad day for me when even before the season has started that i give zero chance and that twins will be in cellar in centeral. Also they probably only better than houston in American league and Miami and maybe Colorado in the National league.
I hate them more than anyone. That being said, that rotation will make them an over .500 team in a weak division. OVER.
Whitesox are an 83-87 win team. They have a deep enough rotation that they will be a winning team despite being themselves.
Their number 5 starter would probably be the Twins number 1.
The WhiteSox have a legit starting rotation as long as their bullpen doesn't completely fall on it's face I expect them to win at least 85 games. I'll take the over.
If this is what is available on the market, you have to pass. Convert Butera!
I hope I'm wrong, but this sure looks like compounding the situation.
Good for Correia?
I really feel free agency should only be used to set yourself up to position yourself to win a title soon, there is no sense to overpay these players if u aren't setting yourself up to win a title in the years u are signing the free agents for, if I were tr I would not go after a top tier guy right now, I wouldn't take the middle guys, I do think there is one guy I would get because he is young, and I would go for 3/30 and that is McCarthy. Developing the farm should be #1 priority and so far so good.
It boils down to make me an offer, and if the numbers sound right, you grab it (either way). An agent may say....Dempster turned down 2 for $26 and wants three. You can believe him or not, but you have to offer a number with three then. Like last year, The Twins were thinking low for Nathan. The Range
rs said $9...Joe liked that number and said an immediate yes. Could he get more, we'll never know. It's called gambling.
If you have to overpay go with the shorter contract. I think 3 years for Dempster is going to work. I would see if you can get him with 3/33 as that would be the highest bid. that did work on a 3B that rejected our 2 year offer for LA's 3 or 4 year deal at a lower annual average. I forget the guys name though.
If you have to over pay go for Sanchez.
He is young and good so might as well pay the premium for him.
I really want to know the amount of cleaning Aaron did before the podcast, especially if he knew that there was going to be video.
Thanks, John. Interesting article, with real implications for Twins and others. While using statistical correlation can yield misleading (and sometimes hilarious) positive correlations, an extremely low coefficient (and .07 is VERY low) is pretty much unassailable, if the population is large enough. Here the population is small, but the subjective evidence (the 2012 Giants and Yankees, the 2011 Cardinals, the 2001 Mariners ... and the '87 Twins, to name a few that come quickly to mind) certainly would reinforce the idea that just getting to the playoffs is far more important than how a team gets there, and that running away from the field provides no advantage.
I'd always suspected that running away from the pack in winning a division was a disadvantage relative to the team's chances of success in the postseason. This correlation indicates that that is a falacy, as well. It's not an advantage, or a disadvantage; it's statistically irrelevant. I'm guessing the article won't be popular with the "Tear down the Twins and start over" crowd, but those kinds of arguments are what the postseason is for, right?
Best part is the waiter-dude with the cool Daunte Culpepper jersey!
I think there is no way the Twins keep Span when their pitching is such a mess. I say trade Willingham as well since the OF depth chart within the organization is so strong. Its not that hard to imagine Hicks or Arcia being as productive as Span was both offensively and for Hick's case: defensively as well. And replacing Willingham's production should be secondary to finding better options at starting pitcher!
Still good eight names that can be kept or shuffled off depending on free-agent signings or free agnt claims that need to be added to 40-man. Don't see them needing more than 4-5 places for protected minor league guys (Slama).
to me the twins offer 1 million gaurenteed and 1 million per month hes in the majors - dl time
that gives him a chance to earn 8 million or it gives him a chance to rehab and come up in june and still make 5 million
with what curly is going to chase , baker might be the best of the lot when all is said and done
WPA is more a metric than a statistic. RBI and certainly GWRBI would be examples of statistics with marginal predictive value.
The value of a metric is often the predictive value. Therefore it is not surprising that many sabrmetric geeks give little attention to WPA.
Is there any way we can call up Clete Thomas? We could use his positive WPA.