Couple of things:
If the Twins believe Parmelee is ready to turn the corner, it might make the most sense long-term to go north with Kubel and Parmelee. They could keep Arcia in reserve at Rochester for a couple months in case Kubel goes down or Parmelee flails. Keep an eye on how each of them are used.
How about Arcia being a lock because of his skill to hit the ball far and have Kubel and Parmelee fight for a spot. I don't think that Kubel has had a hit in 3 ST games so far, has he? He should not be a lock, because of his past....
Re: Meyers: He threw all but 2 fastballs today according to what he said post game because he just wanted to get the feel and establish his FB command. Naturally he got hit. No reason to worry here. Swarzak on the other hand...
If that is the definition, it is suspect. In theory, it is just as important for a catcher to get the strikes his pitcher deserves as getting balls called strikes.
I have lots of concerns about pitch framing as a metric as well:
- it has to be normalized per umpire (it is not.) And we now that a 5'7" 300lbs umpire's strike zone is different than a 6'7" 200 lbs umpire's.
- it has to be normalized per pitcher (it is not). I bet if Greg Maddux was throwing exclusively to Ryan Doumit, Doumit would have been the best pitch framing catcher in the game...
Until they find a way to normalize their data in at least those 2 dimensions, I am not buying it...
Very interesting, and yet not too surprising. If you're getting more strikes called, a pitcher will throw less pitches...
My concerns with pitch framing...
1.) I think it would be interesting to see how the numbers would look if you removed 3-0 and 0-2 counts. 3-0, if it's pretty close, it's a strike. If it's 0-2, that same pitch in the same location is often called a ball.
2.) As much as we want to think that all players have the same strike zone, does it not make sense that someone catching Sam Deduno, Kyle Gibson, Ryan Pressly, other rookies and unproven pitchers will have different strike zones than proven pitchers? It's human nature. I bet Greg Maddux's catchers in his prime had pretty good pitch framing numbers if they had had such things then.
3.) Game situations shouldn't, but likely do, play into it.
Thanks for talking bout Int'l ball- well done, keep it up.
I as well, don't get all the hate towards Pelfrey. I get the love for all the statistical math but when you boil it down Pelfrey is a 29 year old starter that has already put up seasons of 13,10,15,7 wins averaging close to 200 innings in the National League East before Tommy John surgery. You have anybody else in mind at that age with that kind of track record......I didn't think so. Matt Garza is older, his best season he won 15 games, he hasn't been close to 200 hundred innings since 2011. I'm guessing Ryan is betting that Pelfrey spent last year at the major league level learning how to pitch in the American League and how strong his arm is gonna be after the surgery. The ironic thing is everyone cites all these pitchers they should have gotten besides Pelfrey: Kazmir 3 years ago practically out of baseball 2 yrs ago horrible with the Angels bounce back with the Indians Colon 40 yrs old same deal Arroyo-pitch to contact guy going from pitching to 8 guys to pitching to 9 in the AL, Santana career ERA .30 points lower than Pelfrey Jimenez career ERA .50 lower than Pelfrey none of which have had Tommy John surgery yet. I think resigning Pelfrey was a smart bet against the house given the ante to get into the game.
This is very intriguing. The following quote is on the Twins' website--using the same analysis what do you make of this?
"We've gotten beaten up for three years now," Gardenhire said at the Walt Disney World Swan & Dolphin Resort on Tuesday. "You know you need pitching. We're trying to get pitching. We've done a pretty good job at this point. We're looking at position players. We said we were going to get better, and that's our goal is to get better. We started that process, but by no means is it done. We're still working hard at it."
Did I just read an article in which Terry Ryan is playing the role of Aristotle?
Saw the title and thought it was an ad for a sperm bank!
Why not Molitor?
I wonder what Ryan would do if the roles were reversed.
Would Ryan cough up two million dollars for a 30 day rental??
I highly doubt it.
Cardinals fan, Bark? Really? I love you like a brother my friend, and Veronica is like a sister to me, and it hurts me to think that you could root for a team that has a red bird on their jersey. Surely you realize that cardinals are the flying rats of the bird kingdom and have been known to eat worms after a rainstorm.
As for John's head versus heart dilemma, I feel your pain. Justin has long been one of my favorite players and I share your feeling that this seems like a move that was designed mainly to put $2.6 million into the Pohlad coffers. Then I wonder if maybe that $2.6 million may eventually go towards a free agent or something else that will help going forward. Like many issues that we are seeing, it may take months to make an accurate assessment. If the PTBNL turns out well and/or the Twins sign Morneau next year then my heart will feel better. Otherwise, I will feel that this was a cheesy move to save money by disrespecting a player who has made huge contributions and disrespecting the fans by dishonoring a player who has earned their appreciation.
Nice write-up John. I have come to believe that it is all about the money with the Twins. You have convinced me more-so. I wish it wasn't so, but if the Twins do not do something to defuse this suspicion this off season - I will walk away, becoming an exclusive St. Louis Cardinals fan.
I'd love to get a 40 yard dash time on Hicks. People keep saying he takes long strides, and that what we perceive as slowness is an optical illusion but I'm not sure I buy that.
Good article. It is tough as teams are less and less likely to give up their better prospects to fix the major league club. It shows about what the cap is to make a deal. Interested in seeing if any of this changes as we get close to July 31
Congrates from mexico as well John Nad the rest of Twins Daily
dakotanative said it well.
And from one who enjoys this website almost every day, thank you.
John - congratulations to you and the Twins Daily team. Day-in and day-out one of the first places I check for the latest Twins news and opinions is Twins Daily. Before there was Twins Daily we had Twins Geek, Seth Speaks, Puckett's Pond, Aaron Gleeman's blog, etc. There were a few community boards that help fill the Twins news and opinion void, but the group of dedicated Twins fans who, on a daily basis, had the courage to post their opinions, research, analysis, etc. on the web, I and thousands of others owe a debt of gratitude. Thank you for teaming together to get this done. I had read over a year ago some pundit's (maybe ESPN?) view that the Minnesota Twins had the finest group of bloggers supporting their team and that there was no one close. Need I say more.
I find it just terrible to sell this draft as a three-player draft. It's ridiculous to make the claim, especially with high school players involved. There are so many legit talented players found in later rounds (Rosario, Walker, etc.) that it makes this weird and bizarre meme (and I will call it that) utterly dumb.
Kohl Stewart is very good. Sean Manaea is very good. Braden Shipley is very good. There are several hundred players who are very good right now. Some dozens will end up being MLB Great-to-below average. That's the story.
By the way, McGuire would be a mistake and a half. It would be better to take Meadows than him. There's no bat. This could be Danny Lehmann+.