Blog Comments

  1. Thrylos's Avatar
    That is the risk that High School kids take when they do not sign. On the other hand, college education is worth something as well...
  2. Seth Stohs's Avatar
    The Twins took Smelter in the 11th round 3 years ago as a pitcher. They really liked him, offered him a lot of money. He went to Georgia Tech and has completely flopped. He was good as a reliever as a freshman. He also played in the OF and hit .222 with no power. He then got hurt his sophomore year and pitched very limited. This year, he's back in their bullpen with very pedestrian numbers. Can't help but think that he wishes he had signed, but wouldn't be surprised if the Twins still take a late-round flyer on him.
  3. Thrylos's Avatar
    My pleasure. Looks like the number 3 pick is up for grabs as well, since the guys who are rotating for the Twins are also rotating for Colorado (they got pick number 3.)
  4. John Bonnes's Avatar
    This is awesome Thrylos. Thank you for sharing it. It is feeling like the 4th pick is kind of wide open right now.
  5. jorgenswest's Avatar
    Thanks
  6. Chance's Avatar
    Real nice. Thanks for this.
  7. Gene Larkin Fan Club's Avatar
    Thanks, Thrylos! I'm new to the TD community this year, but I already appreciate your posts!
  8. spycake's Avatar
    Sorry, I am still not seeing this. Last year, the Twins had 3 starters with positive WAR (Diamond, DeVries, and Deduno), and they posted a collective 3.5 WAR in 59 starts. That leaves 103 starts and approximately -8.2 WAR (ugh) for our other 2012 starters.

    Replace that with the four new guys (2 WAR over 99 starts in 2011/2012), and that's a 10-win improvement. That's a solid improvement, probably optimistic compared to most projection systems, but still less than your lowest projected improvement of 15 wins. (And Duensing and Swarzak aren't making up the remaining 5+ WAR in the bullpen either - probably 2 WAR max there.)

    You pretty much have to project significant improvement for Hendricks, a strong debut by Gibson, and big rebounds for Worley and Pelfrey to get to 15. I'm not sure how you'd get to your mean projection of 21 -- even if all 162 starts were started by equivalent pitchers to Diamond 2012 (a pretty crazy optimistic projection), that would still only be a 19 win improvement over 2012.
  9. Thrylos's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by spycake
    I'm not sure I follow. If you are assuming the new guys are simply replacing the same 54 starts, there is no way they are adding 15 to 26 team wins. The Twins were 20-34 in those 54 starts last year. Your lowest projection has the Twins winning 15 additional games in that sample, apparently going 35-19 with the new guys, which is a winning percentage even higher than the Detroit's winning percentage in Justin Verlander starts last year. That's not happening.

    I think innings and runs allowed with Pythag records might be the best way to do this. Or even just eyeballing WAR -- the four guys last year posted a combined -4.4 WAR in 54 starts. The replacements posted 2 WAR over 99 starts, or 1.1 prorated to 54. That's a 5.5 WAR spread, so it suggests 5-6 additional wins with the new guys. That seems a lot more reasonable (unfortunately, it only takes the team record up to 71 or 72 wins).
    There is more to it. Part of the issue with the old starters is that they just did not pitch enough (because of injuries or because they were ousted) so additional below replacement players made those starts they should had make. If the new guys pitch 30+ games for the 3 of them and 15 for Harden, that is what will make the difference.

    I did a WAR analysis and I will post it this weekend. In addition to that change of WAR you mention, you have a huge diff or WAR for both Swarzak and Duensing as relievers vs starters, then you take into consideration that Hendriks will probably be at least replacement level this season (instead of -1.2 last season) and things are really looking up....
  10. spycake's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by thrylos98
    I got the percentages (the ones in those bullets) and I did simple math: (percentage 2013 rotation in 2012 / percentage 2012 rotation in 2012) X 2012 rotation wins (i.e. 41). And then added to 66.

    There are a few assumptions that actually work the other way: This assumes that the 2013 rotation will pitch as few innings as those guys in 2012 rotation pitched and the rest will be pitched by Diamond/Hendriks/Deduno/Walters/De Vries/Duensing/Swarzak (as in 2012 - which will not happen) So I think that it is a pretty good approximation.
    I'm not sure I follow. If you are assuming the new guys are simply replacing the same 54 starts, there is no way they are adding 15 to 26 team wins. The Twins were 20-34 in those 54 starts last year. Your lowest projection has the Twins winning 15 additional games in that sample, apparently going 35-19 with the new guys, which is a winning percentage even higher than the Detroit's winning percentage in Justin Verlander starts last year. That's not happening.

    I think innings and runs allowed with Pythag records might be the best way to do this. Or even just eyeballing WAR -- the four guys last year posted a combined -4.4 WAR in 54 starts. The replacements posted 2 WAR over 99 starts, or 1.1 prorated to 54. That's a 5.5 WAR spread, so it suggests 5-6 additional wins with the new guys. That seems a lot more reasonable (unfortunately, it only takes the team record up to 71 or 72 wins).
  11. darin617's Avatar
    I'm just happy that Scott Baker didn't resign with the Twins since he is now hurt.(what a shocker).
  12. Thrylos's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by spycake
    Thanks for the work. I would be interested in seeing more detailed math. How exactly do you apply those extrapolations, both to the new starters and the returning ones? For example, the new starters had 99 starts for their old teams, and they are replacing Twins who only started 54 games in 2012.
    Good question. And I apologize because I wrote this whole mess up early this morning in an airport lounge down in FL waiting for my flight up North...

    I got the percentages (the ones in those bullets) and I did simple math: (percentage 2013 rotation in 2012 / percentage 2012 rotation in 2012) X 2012 rotation wins (i.e. 41). And then added to 66.

    There are a few assumptions that actually work the other way: This assumes that the 2013 rotation will pitch as few innings as those guys in 2012 rotation pitched and the rest will be pitched by Diamond/Hendriks/Deduno/Walters/De Vries/Duensing/Swarzak (as in 2012 - which will not happen) So I think that it is a pretty good approximation.

    Kid of a teaser for the next installment: If the Twins keep Duensing and Swarzak on the pen exclusively this season, they will gain about 4 pitcher WAR (big deal) and this was not reflected in this analysis...
  13. gil4's Avatar
    Unlike Badsmerf, I am an incurable optimist. (Last year at this time I was predicting a bounce-back season and a Cy Young for Liriano.) But I'm not convinced by your data, either.

    1. I thingk your game score chart is a better indicator than the other part of the chart because it takes into account inniings pitched. Giving up 3 runs in 6 innings does not represent a good chance of winning; it represents a slightly below average chance (4.5 runs per gave vs. 4.3 scored.) I'm pretty sure the starters averaged fewer than 6 IP per start.

    2. The guys you chose to represent 2012 only started 50 games last year. Based on game score, I'd guess the record in those starts was 15-39. Even if we replaced those 54 games with a couple of guys from a video game who pitched shutouts every time out, that iimproves us to 90 wins (+24). If they are average (which seems like a stretch), that's +12 wins, or 78.

    3. We have three guys coming from the NL to AL, which tends to make numbers worse, although Marquis was dealing with bigger issues at the beginning of last year and I think the blank slate [edit - after he left and went to SD] helped as much as the return to the NL.

    4. Harden and Pelfrey are coming off major injuries. I have no idea what to expect from Harden if he ever makes it into the rotation, which is a 50-50 proposition. Pelfrey is less than a year removed from TJ surgery. Maybe he has Adrian Peterson's larm and is completely healed and ready to perform at a level above anything he has done before, but I'm guessing he's an ordinary guy who won't get back to within 90% of his old adequate self before next year.

    5. Diamond is hurt. He was a great candidate for regression anyway.


    Despite all of that, I'm going to agree with your overall record prediction just on blind faith and/or wishful thinking. My way is more scientific.
    Updated 03-29-2013 at 08:22 AM by gil4
  14. Badsmerf's Avatar
    I'm not very convinced by this. A lot of optimism thinking this team could even come close to 80 wins. The starting pitching just isn't good enough. Diamond is going to regress, Worley will pitch have a dip in number while changing leagues, Harden might not be a starting pitcher anymore, Correia is going to struggle with the league change, Pelfrey might not make it through the season, and Hendriks is still unproven. I hope your optimism because reality, but future looks bleak.
  15. birdwatcher's Avatar
    Interesting read, thrylos. Thanks. Obviously, whether it's based on math or based on your sense of the energy at spring training, it's conjecture. I'll place more faith in the observations you and others have made, and in the comments from staff and players than anything else. The distinction I make is between being competitive versus contending. I'm optimistic that, from game to game, we are much more competitive, and your math supports this optimism. But I'm very pessimistic about the chances of us contending. Still, this team should be watchable much more often this year than last. We'll just have to occupy ourselves with a second ntertainment option to fill the void on nights when Correia is on the mound, right?
  16. spycake's Avatar
    Thanks for the work. I would be interested in seeing more detailed math. How exactly do you apply those extrapolations, both to the new starters and the returning ones? For example, the new starters had 99 starts for their old teams, and they are replacing Twins who only started 54 games in 2012.
  17. Oldgoat_MN's Avatar
    Well that would be fun.
    Now all they have to do is read this and get on board!
    Thanks thry
  18. oldprospect43's Avatar
    I frequently enjoy watching minor league games at the Buck O'Neil complex.. That being said - It was a thing of beauty watching Buxton run the bases for a triple today. He looks effortless and so fast running the bases. Buxton looked very comfortable in CF as well. There was another guy on the Twins who was big as hell who had 2 triples. He ran very well to be so big. It looked like it took 4 steps for him to get from second to third base. He wore #8 and played OF. He hit the ball hard all day. The Twins prospects hit the ball sharp most of the day. The O's started strong but faded as usual.
  19. Old Twins Cap's Avatar
    Yeah, appreciate the inside look at the Twins. I was down there in early March but only got to Port Charlotte for a game -- the one where the Twins hit back to back triples in the Ninth to tie and won it in the Tenth.

    I agree: Twins look better this year. More life, more youth, more energy. They will score runs, they will play better defense, their bullpen is fine. It all comes down to pitching and there, well, hard to say at this point. Some guys need to grow, some guys need to heal and some guys need to out-perform their historic numbers. In other words, the Twins will be a .500 team, unless something amazing happens.
  20. cmathewson's Avatar
    Thanks for this. Good to hear live reports from behind the fences in FM.

    Concerned about the last bullpen spot. Robertson looks hurt or something. Burnett looks like, well, Burnett, who has always been way too hittable for my taste. On the plus side, it won't be long before Swarzak is back and both Robertson and Burnett will be in AAA. If that is the biggest problem we face, it's all good.
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