Blog Comments

  1. Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
    I was under the impression there would be cuts tomorrow, but they sure could wait an extra day. I would have Joe Benson on the chopping block too.
  2. Thrylos's Avatar
    3/11 is Monday Time flies. I think that I would probably count 1 C per 5 Ps or so, so if they send down 5, will probably send down a C. May and Meyer have allegedly been practicing with the minor league teams. I will be able to tell in 2 weeks when I am there.
  3. Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
    I thought I read somewhere that players couldn't be optioned until 3/11. Augenstein heading down makes sense. Not sure they have the guys to send a catcher down yet. Maybe just the injured pitchers getting reassigned to save on per diem.
  4. Dave T's Avatar
    Thank you thrylos for organizing all this information. The Twins pitching staff is a pretty big mystery to me this year. I am looking forward to your updates about both the starters and the relievers. I can't remember another year when the Twins pitching staff had so many spots up for grabs.
  5. Oldgoat_MN's Avatar
    The coaches must think Spring Training is good for something. Every now and then a player forces himself onto a team. Albert Pujols - 2001, Kent Hrbek - 1982.
    Whether it be footwork, follow-through or whatever, the coaches seem to think they learn a lot about the players.
  6. jorgenswest's Avatar
    Lots of position battles this year.
    Updated 02-22-2013 at 09:57 PM by jorgenswest
  7. Thrylos's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl
    Thanks for the guide. This will likely be the most beneficial part for when we get down there this summer.
    Summer? Will be pretty hot and humid then Will try to get to some Miracle games this summer too, especially with this foreseeable roster. Would be fun.

    About this guide, if one is a serious carnivore and has to have meat LEN3's guide is a must read.
  8. Shane Wahl's Avatar
    Thanks for the guide. This will likely be the most beneficial part for when we get down there this summer.
  9. Joe A. Preusser's Avatar
    I found myself thinking yesterday about how awesome it would be to do ths professionally for an MBL team. Just sit around and tinker with numbers and equations all day and predict he next superstars for the sport. I could think of worse jobs!
  10. Thrylos's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by The Wise One
    That is Cole Devries limiting factor as only 7 starts made it through 6 and only one through 7.
    This is kinda a pet peave of mine

    Innings pitched is about as meaningful stat as minutes played in basketball. It is manager's choice. Gardenhire tend to let their veterans (see Pavano) go over imaginary limits despite the number of pitches thrown, while limit the innings of rookies despite how well they are doing. Quality matters more than quantity, unless a pitcher takes himself out of the game (and they don't)
  11. The Wise One's Avatar
    Great idea. One small difference of opinion. xPE. manipulating by a constant does nothing for the number for the reliabilty of the number. The luck factor over a season for all pitchers should be the same for all pitchers and thus should not be a factor to control for. Using babip at least factors for that pitcher what happens when they threw it. In determinging "Ace" status a factor that should be considered is the ability to get through the sixth. That is Cole Devries limiting factor as only 7 starts made it through 6 and only one through 7.
  12. Thrylos's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Big Daddy H
    Where's Anthony Slama? Everybody seems to leave him in the dust.
    I am a huge Anthony Slama fun, and hope he makes the team out of Spring Training, but this is for Starting Pitching
  13. Big Daddy H's Avatar
    Where's Anthony Slama? Everybody seems to leave him in the dust.
  14. Thrylos's Avatar

    Yeah I do know the value of each level is way oversimplified. To actually try to give a proper value for each level, I would need to do some sort of regression analysis of the last 10 years or so by plugging in the numbers of all Ps and see how they did on each level relative to MLB and create an average value for each level (actually would be better if it is per league; because I suspect that the Pacific league pitchers are having a harder time than those of the International League.) That is probably the best way of doing it. But it does take time and computing power... What I am doing is a quick and dirty approximation (and easy )

    Yeah. I assume that players spent about half of their time in each level. Weight would be better. Again, quick and easy

    Age is taken care in the equation, since axPE is a number where xPE is divided by age and multiplied by level value times 7.
    Updated 01-26-2013 at 05:28 PM by Thrylos
  15. Joe A. Preusser's Avatar
    Nice job, you obviously put a lot of time and effort into this. Here are a few possible caveats I noticed:

    1) Your numerical breakdown of the minor leagues is way oversimplified.

    All Rookie Leagues: 1
    A: 2
    A+: 3
    AA: 4
    AAA: 5
    MLB: 6

    I would be inclined to give these numbers more thought, as much of your calculations are based on them. For instance, the jump from A to AA is considered by many to be the most dificult. You also have the gap between rookie ball to high A+ at 2, where the gap from AAA to MLB is 1. I have always considered (right or wrong) that high A+ was just a crystalization of the best talent in rookie and A, so that gap seems high. I would bet the guys and gals on here can give you a much more comprehensive set of reasoning on how to evaluate the various levels.

    2) This is an easy, quick fix. Your level number should be a weighted average, based on exact time spent in either level.

    3) It would be easy to add an "age coefficient" to your calculations in order to take this into account. Not saying you should, but you mentioned Cole's age, so I'd suggest at least considering it if you think it fits into your analysis.

    On the whole, an enjoyable read. Thanks for your effort!
  16. Shane Wahl's Avatar
    Whoa. Thanks for this. It is definitely interesting.
  17. MWLFan's Avatar
    Back when I was in college I did a informational interview with Mr. Mee in his Metrodome office. What a terrific guy he was for putting up with a idiot college Junior stumbling through life,and probably hung over, and giving me some advice. "Kid if you are looking to make money, unless you can hit a slider with some power or throw 100mph lefthanded, baseball is not for where you want to end up." I listened to him and decided not pursue my career in baseball and instead not make a lot of money down another path. I think baseball would have been more fun, if slighty less profitable. Thanks Mr. Mee for your time.
  18. Thrylos's Avatar
    I will credit the Twins for getting him from the Nationals. Same with May. The Twins are actually having a pretty exiting system now because of these trades, the better than expected return of Gibson from TJ surgery and the 2012 draft.

    (Gibson was 2009 but did not play until 2010, so that's when his pro debut was made; and the original list is for players who played in the Twins' system in 2008 and their 2009 destinations posted in April 2009, few months before Gibson was drafted - and btw, do you see Gibson in this ST 2012 photo? )
    Updated 01-19-2013 at 07:01 PM by Thrylos
  19. Seth Stohs's Avatar
    Like I said, I wasn't questioning the results, just what it means. Yes, the Rays have some good ones there, no question. Price was also the #1 overall pick. And, I know your three points, but your blog was on the pitchers in the organization at the time. Picking out two orgs that we know are good is one thing. Going through 30 organizations might tell us something else. I don't pretend to know and couldn't even guess and certain am not going to do that work. And Gibson was 2009. Wimmers and Darnell were 2010. If Meyer (2011) becomes a star, will you credit the Twins or give credit to the Nationals?
  20. Thrylos's Avatar
    Hendriks was around and should probably be listed. The original list is a list of Twins' MiLB in 2008 and where there were assigned in 2009. Hendriks sat out in 2008. Darnell and Gibson came in 2010.

    The premise here was 3-fold:

    It is hard to compete (or even stronger - you are practically guaranteed to not compete) if:

    - your farm system has not produced any impact (read: top of the rotation pitchers) within 5 years (2008-2013)
    - you do not sign top of the rotation free agents
    - you do not trade for top of the rotation free agents

    (Pavano was never a top of the rotation free agent)

    Not sure what the rate is in other organizations, but if you look at the organizations that have been competing, they either have a lot of top of the rotation talent coming from the minors (Rays, As, Os) or they sign it (Yankees, Rangers, Phillies) or both (Red Sox, Cardinals)

    If you do not do one of the 3 you will not compete. And the last time the Twins did #2 and #3, McPhail was the GM (Morris and Smiley), so they do have to develop talent. If they don't they have no chance in competing. May, Meyer and Worley are bringing the Twins to a good place (and with Gibson, Hendriks and Wimmers and the lower level kids on the hold.)

    And to make my point, I checked and in 2008:

    The Rays had David Price, Jeff Niemann, Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson (and Wade Davis) in their organization
    the A's had Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Dallas Braden (and Mickey Storey)
    Updated 01-19-2013 at 04:52 PM by Thrylos
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