Blog Comments

  1. pierre75275's Avatar
    Is there any way to get the league averages for that information? Or is zero just the average?
  2. howieramone's Avatar
    Every time I hear the words shoulder surgery, I cross the guy off the list and go to the next guy. In this case Gibson.
  3. Thrylos's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Mayhem25
    But more often than not, wouldn't pitchers 11-15 be of lesser quality than pitchers 1-10? Injuries obviously would dictate how many BP pitchers are used. But for example, Perkins will pitch about 65 innings no matter if the entire bullpen pitches 400 or 500 innings. So the pitchers accounting for the additional 100 IP from the bullpen are going to be of lesser quality and with it the stats will take a hit. I am not arguing that pens get tired, but more that fact that the more IP the bullpen pitches, those innings will be given to lesser RP's. I would think that some improvement from the SP (more IP) would correlate an improvement in the BP.
    That all depends, really. I would argue that Tonkin is probably a better pitcher than Roenicke and Pressly who were one of the original squad. Heck, Tyler Robertson made the team out of ST... The pen has a way to balance out. September in non-competing teams might be a different story, but it just balances out.
  4. Mayhem25's Avatar
    But more often than not, wouldn't pitchers 11-15 be of lesser quality than pitchers 1-10? Injuries obviously would dictate how many BP pitchers are used. But for example, Perkins will pitch about 65 innings no matter if the entire bullpen pitches 400 or 500 innings. So the pitchers accounting for the additional 100 IP from the bullpen are going to be of lesser quality and with it the stats will take a hit. I am not arguing that pens get tired, but more that fact that the more IP the bullpen pitches, those innings will be given to lesser RP's. I would think that some improvement from the SP (more IP) would correlate an improvement in the BP.
  5. Thrylos's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Mayhem25
    I would think the bullpen numbers would probably look worse because of the brutal SP leaving far too many innings for the RPs, thus the RP being worn down. How many IP did the bullpen have compared to the rest of MLB?
    Actually the correct measurement for that is IP/appearance because if a pen has used 10 different pitchers to pitch 400 innings would result to more tired pitchers than if used 15 different pitchers to pitch 420 innings, correct?

    As far as IP/Appearance goes, if you round down to one decimal (more decimals does not make sense), you will see that pretty much the whole league is at the same place:

    Astros 1.2
    Pirates 1.2
    Athletics 1.1
    Blue Jays 1.1
    Mariners 1.1
    Marlins 1.1
    Nationals 1.1
    Padres 1.1
    Rockies 1.1
    Royals 1.1
    Twins 1.1
    Yankees 1.1
    Angels 1.0
    Braves 1.0
    Brewers 1.0
    Cardinals 1.0
    Cubs 1.0
    Diamondbacks 1.0
    Dodgers 1.0
    Giants 1.0
    Indians 1.0
    Mets 1.0
    Philies 1.0
    Rangers 1.0
    Rays 1.0
    Reds 1.0
    Tigers 1.0
    White Sox 1.0

    I think that the difference of 0.2 innings in spread (less than a batter faced) is insignificant. There goes another myth about "tired pens..."
  6. Mayhem25's Avatar
    I would like to see some numbers on the bullpen for the final month of the regular season compared to the first 5 months or so. I would think the bullpen numbers would probably look worse because of the brutal SP leaving far too many innings for the RPs, thus the RP being worn down. How many IP did the bullpen have compared to the rest of MLB?
  7. DAM DC Twins Fans's Avatar
    Great article--like the category specification--that makes the pitching roster look reasonable. If you assume that Deduno is on DL in April, then ST is a fight for 5th starter between Diamond and Worley. Loser fights with Duensing and Swarzek for 2 long spots in pen and that loser is gone. So that's 9 spots. Group D battles to fill out pen and Gibson goes to Rochester.
  8. Otwins's Avatar
    Thanks for the breakdown. I am glad you made the point that there is room on the staff for any pitcher that is out of options. I believe that by signing three starting pitchers they have also inproved the bullpen by increasing the competition and hopefully the new starters throw more innings. I do think some of the bullpen numbers would improve if their innings went down. I don't recall losing many games when we had a lead in the late innings. The bullpen was fine and should be better this year.
  9. minn55441's Avatar
    Nice recap thrylos.

    I think the key thing, as you mentioned is that this is December. Things tend to sort themselves out by April. Injuries, performance and trades will take care of most of the current questions we have and it will seem obvious what needs to be done.
  10. lee_the_twins_fan's Avatar
    I question whether it will be Fryer or Herrmann who is designated for assignment. I suspect it will be Herrmann, not Fryer.
  11. Thrylos's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl
    The shakedown as I would do it:

    Duensing might bring Doumitesque value back, so I would look to trade him. Logan Darnell could be a perfect add-in to such a trade.

    The Twins, for some reason, through money at Pelfrey. He is not good. It's an abomination. Anyway, the options really seem to hinge around Gibson, Diamond, Worley, and Deduno for the fifth starter and hopefully the long relief role (move Swarzak to middle relief, please). I would bet that Gibson starts in AAA, Diamond is the fifth starter, and Worley begins in long relief, with Deduno placed on the DL somehow. I think all four are likely better than Pelfrey in 2014, but oh well. If the Twins can try to trade from the bullpen, Diamond or Worley might find MR spots (trade Duensing, Fien, and Burton).

    The rotation could be:

    Nolasco
    Correia
    Hughes
    Pelfrey
    Gibson

    and the bullpen:

    Diamond
    Worley
    Swarzak
    Thielbar
    Tonkin
    Fien/Burton (whichever one doesn't get traded)
    Perkins

    Lots of things can happen, but I will keep Duensing over Thielbar (and Diamond - who cannot get lefties out) every day (and night). If they can trade Thielbar and his .175 BABIP for something, it would be wonderful.
  12. B Richard's Avatar
    Thanks for this.

    What sets him apart (or at least gives me more hope for him) in my mind is his age. The kid is 23. Let's say he recovers from the injury responsible for his poor performance last year-- to me, they could have a very effective back end of the rotation option. Unfortunately we have several of those. Still, nice to get ANY kind of return on a trade where the Braves ate the contract of maybe the worst pitch framer in MLB history
  13. Shane Wahl's Avatar
    The shakedown as I would do it:

    Duensing might bring Doumitesque value back, so I would look to trade him. Logan Darnell could be a perfect add-in to such a trade.

    The Twins, for some reason, through money at Pelfrey. He is not good. It's an abomination. Anyway, the options really seem to hinge around Gibson, Diamond, Worley, and Deduno for the fifth starter and hopefully the long relief role (move Swarzak to middle relief, please). I would bet that Gibson starts in AAA, Diamond is the fifth starter, and Worley begins in long relief, with Deduno placed on the DL somehow. I think all four are likely better than Pelfrey in 2014, but oh well. If the Twins can try to trade from the bullpen, Diamond or Worley might find MR spots (trade Duensing, Fien, and Burton).

    The rotation could be:

    Nolasco
    Correia
    Hughes
    Pelfrey
    Gibson

    and the bullpen:

    Diamond
    Worley
    Swarzak
    Thielbar
    Tonkin
    Fien/Burton (whichever one doesn't get traded)
    Perkins
  14. Dman's Avatar
    Nice article. I think the Twins did ok with this trade.
  15. Jim H's Avatar
    Albers won't be moved, but his best chance to make the Twins roster is as a long reliever. Which makes some sense. There might not be any left handed starters, Swarzak might get more meaningful innings, Pressey could start the year in AAA, so there might be an opening for a left handed long reliever who could swing to starter in an emergency. A lot depends on how many relievers the Twins decide to carry in 2014, and whether any get traded this winter.
  16. twinsin17's Avatar
    Well done, Thrylos. You make a good case for this being a smart contract for the Twins.

    It doesn't feel right saying it (at least not this close to our disastrous 2013 year) but these free agent signings have me feeling cautiously optimistic for 2014. If - BIG if - everything falls in to place we should have our best SP depth since the 2004 season. That won't make up for an anemic offense but it is realistic to expect an improvement of 5-10 wins next year.
  17. MNfan34's Avatar
    I didn't need more convincing. I was mad last year when it was just a one year deal. If anything I was surprised that we got 150 innings from him last year.

    If he were to develop an effective changeup and throw more sliders, then he is a TOP of the rotation guy. Basically the fulfillment of his projection as a prospect. I still think that if we have other guys that pitch their way into the rotation, Pelfrey is a candidate to be lights out coming out of the pen with just the two main pitches (same with Hughes)

    As far as free agent position players, the only places I can see adding would be at catcher or shortstop. And in both cases I don't love the available options. Even if Drew considers the Twins an option (doubt it) I think we would really have to overpay (on top of losing a pick).

    If we aren't sticking with what we have, I would prefer to shift a top prospect with a AAAA (parms/worley) guy for a younger shortstop with a better contract than to overpay aging and injury prone Drew for a few seasons, and still lose a prospect.
  18. Sconnie's Avatar
    When it was first hinted at that he Twins and Pelf were in negotiations before the Twins signed any other pitchers, I said I would be ok with Pelf resigning if he were signed as the back end of a good rotation rather than the centerpiece of a crap rotation.

    Its a mixed bag, but generally this rotation (big stretch) should be much better. I'm mostly ok with Pelf. He could surprise me.
  19. johnnydakota's Avatar
    My top 5 reasons for resigning Mike

    5. If he fails as a starter , we can use him as a big foot mascote
    4. Dominos can have a new add for when Pelfrey starts, 30 pitches or less quarentee
    3. We can trade him to the wolves as a small foward
    2.If we didnt sign him , Jim would have kept the money
    1.It came down to Mike or Boof, But Boof wanted a 5 year deal
  20. Thrylos's Avatar
    Agreed about this being the first time that Ryan took actual risks. I suspect that despite what Pohlad is saying pubicly, Ryan might got a gun on his head to win or else this season (and he should with these horrible seasons they have had.)

    Agreed about position players as well. I think that they will get a back up catcher and maybe another bat or two, but they need to fix the corner OF defense (i.e. Willingham at DH or gone, Doumit gone, Colabello gone, Mastroianni gone with Presley as the 4th OF/PR type and Parmelee fighting Kubel for the LH DH job) But they need to clean a lot of the AAAA guys out of there as well and I hope that this will start to happen after the holidays...

    I eventually see Plouffe moving to an OF position and being at least as good with the glove as Cuddyer was when Sano gets up for good.
    Updated 12-17-2013 at 03:35 PM by Thrylos
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