I'm with Joe. Normally I don't like to cherry pick stats but, as I detailed in another thread, if you break down this early season into before April 14 and after, the K rate and BB rate are as though of two different players. There's good reason to suppose that this corresponded to an actual change in approach. And I went on to hypothesize that pitchers will soon change their approach to Hicks in response, and we will potentially see a third kind of stat line when he starts getting pitches to hit. I think the analytically minded are best served to wait at least another two weeks or so and see whether this past week was just SSS rearing its ugly head or the start of a genuine turnaround that at long last results in consistent base hits.
I think a better way to look at Hicks is to completely throw out the first part of the season, say, until he was moved down in the order. This I think would give us a more accurate picture of what type of hitter he will be.
Yeah its normal for a pitcher who moves from the rotation to the pen to experience velocity gain and also to throw the fastball with greater frequency. +0.8 mph is somewhat unimpressive but for whatever reason, that gain plus better movement maybe, the whiffs went up.
I would consider these starters who are aging and experiencing velocity decline to be a subset of the relief pitching dumpster, even if they don't always like to think of themselves as relievers (yet). Brett Myers may be another guy, although it looks like the Twins would stick him back into a starting role.
I got the data from brooksbaseball via Oswalt's game log page on baseball-reference. The "Pitches" Column is linked to the pitcher/date page at brooksbaseball
1) To me, Oswalt has limited value as a reliever for the Twins. I'm not opposed to him, but I'm also happy enough going dumpster diving for relievers and hope for some finds. That's funny for me to admit, because last year I was very critical of signing Joel Zumaya because I felt like they needed to fill that role with someone they could count on. This year, I'd be happy with a Zumaya signing.
2) Where did you get this data? It's kind of cool.
3) I wonder if .8 mph (if I'm reading the data right) is really much of a difference for a pitcher that is moved to the bullpen. It seems every pitcher would show some jump, and without any data I would think a couple of MPH might be fairly average. For instance, as a reliever, he never threw more than 20 pitchers. It wouldn't be shocked if, even as a starter, his first 20 pitches had more mph than his next 20. (Though, it also wouldn't surprise me if the mph increased as he "warmed up". ) I guess my question is how that increase compares to other pitchers who did a split role like Oswalt did. I think Perkins, for instance, added 3-5 mph to his fastball as a reliever, though I could be remembering that wrong.
Yes, putting a ball in play can also cause the forceout or double-play. If he is batting #2, he has to have the ability to sacrifice. If he leads off, he has to figure out a way to totally tilt the slap-hit or bunt to his favor...he can assume he MIGHT beat out any grounder in the infield.
Since he was brought up I've been telling people who keep saying they want to see a higher OBP from Revere, that it's just not going to happen because he's too good at making contact when he swings. He does function like a leadoff hitter in the sense that he'll look at a pitch or two before getting serious about taking a cut, but when he does, he's going to hit it somewhere in play.
Take for instance these stats: Ball-In-Play %, and 5 or more pitch Plate Appearances.
Revere: 86.1%, and 119 in 489 PA's (24.3%).
Span: 80.3%, and 172 in 507 PA's (33.9%).
Mauer: 72.7%, and 219 in 572 PA's (38.3%).
I'm not going to fault a guy for hitting the ball too much, but it is who he is. His OBP will always be a function of his batting average, and to want a bigger OBP-split you have to somehow change the type of hitter he is or put strict limits on him, as you suggest.
If you carry out the 62% strike % (which includes swinging strikes, but to be conservative with estimates I will use that figure), then Revere would see 84 3-0 counts per 1000 PAswhen he is given the red light on 2-0 (conveniently, Revere sits at 1000 PAs currently).
sorry, I should proof read before posting
I've never seen anyone score from second on a walk.
Indeed a walk carries a lower run value than even a single, according to wOBA which values walks at something like .59 and singles at about .67. I don't know exact off hand but it is less.
A pitcher who puts a larger proportion of his baserunners on via walks compared to hits should strand a higher percentage than pitchers who's ratio is more skewed to hits since walks only advance runners a base at a time. I made this observation in another post and was skoffed at. Explain to me the fault in this logic.
Great stuff Willihammer.
So I think its extremely unlikely that Deduno will continue to overcome his walk rates in the future, although I think like others that his .9 BIP-wins / season (current rate, anyway), is definitely achievable.
I worded that wrongly. What I meant is that Deduno's walk rate will continue to hold down his FIP and WAR figures but if he can continue to induce weak contact on balls in play and hold runners at a clip of maybe .7 to 1.0 LOB wins/year, his success will be sustainable.
FDP explained by fangraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...dent-pitching/
You can query FDP leaders by doing a search in the Pitching leaders section. Very flexible query.
Do you have any links that talk about the statistics you're quoting? In case someone wants to learn more about FDP?