Blog Comments

I agree with basically everything that each of you have said. He faces a real uphill climb back into the Twins' plans. He is going to have to hit, and hit soon, in order to get called up. If Arcia hits like he always has, he might even get the first call, so long as a corner is open. Mastroianni might get the first shot at center, should Hicks have issues.

I just don't see enough talent with the bat to be an everyday player. At least not with the great group of kids coming up behind him. He's pretty much been passed by Arcia already. He might get a look as a 4th outfielder at some point during the season if injuries hit. If I'm the Twins I hope he does well enough in AAA, that he might be looked at as a platoon option with Parmelee in right if Parmelee struggles against lefties. His chances of making it with the Twins are pretty slim at this point though.

Benson had a huge opportunity in Spring Training and he completely blew it. Doesn't help that both of his competitors had incredible Marchs, but he could have at least made it close. This may have been his last chance, but like you say, he'll probably get another one next Spring. Unless the Twins let him leave via Rule 5. Although, that would likely require Benson turns in duplicate of last season (minus injury).

Benson has to tear at AAA. The Twins still have to make a decision on Morneau, and this looks like the year they will make a decision, too, on Parmelee. The more I think about it, the Twins will make a qualifying offer on Morneau if he produces and Parmelee falters. Benson could be the right fielder if he goes on a tear at Rochester, of replace someone on the bench. The Twins still have him and control him. It is all up to Benson. First call if someone goes down with an injury! I picture Hicks getting the same chance Dozier did. If he falters, he'll have to struggle. If he really struggles, he may go back down for a stretch, but probably not until late season (i.e. Dozier). He needs to work harder than he has ever worked in his life, but his reward will be a major league job for many many seasons.

I think they traded for Escobar before calling Florimon up. Their opinion could have changed.

This seems to be an unpopular post. Is that because we don't like Florimon? I don't think he's great, I'm merely trying to find some value in a player who will be the staring SS.

The Twin's belief that Floriman will provide great or better defense is reflected in that they traded for Escobar

Crawford must have a good agent.

The whole premise relies on Florimon's defense being great or better. I'm not saying it is, but others have made that argument. If he can be a 2 WAR player, even if it all comes from defense, he provides positive value to the team.

How did Brandon Crawford get that extra thousand dollars?

Although I agree you can't argue with the price it will cost the Twins to have Florimon, "if he is as good defensively as we saw last year" he probably wouldn't be worth keeping on the roster. Comparing his fielding percent to other shortstops that played in at minimum 40 MLB games at short last year he ranked 38th out of 45. (Out of the same 45 players he only had a better batting avg. than 6 of them and OPS better than 5 of them) You may say well he got to more balls then other shortstops and those harder balls make for more errors, however, Florimon's dWAR was 1 which is consider to only be a below average starter/reserve quality defensive player.

I would say that each is equally unsatisfying, each has the same likelihood to turn out well and each leaves you feeling sick from what just transpired.

Brad,
Which is more satisfying: Little Caesar's Pizza or watching Drew Butera at bat?

Originally Posted by John Bonnes

I really enjoy reading your research on this Brad. I appreciate you writing it up for us all.

You are very welcome, I am enjoying the research!

I really enjoy reading your research on this Brad. I appreciate you writing it up for us all.

I kid about De Vries. Really, I'm trying to motivate him, and I have to say, it's working.

After his outings so far, I can't entirely believe that DeVries is ranked too high. He hasn't allowed an earned run yet this Spring. I am pretty sure that the Twins, if they could, would CG Blackburn, too. Maybe it would improve him somehow.

It is surprising how few truly good offensive shortstops there have been over the last 30 years. There might be several reasons for that, often good offensive shortstops get moved to other positions and I think that the defensive requirements for shortstop are so exacting that finding someone that meets those requirements and is an outstanding offensive player is even more rare than I had assumed. Of the 3 "best" shortstops in Twins history Vesailles and Smalley were more offensively oriented and Gagne turned out to be more of a defensive shortstop. Once Versailles stopped hitting, he was soon out of baseball. Smalley was eventually moved off of shortstop as a fulltime position. As you pointed out above Gagne was not particularily a great hitter.

Beckmt - Thanks! I'll add age to my analysis of the 2B and SS that I am working on. That is an excellent addition, and I wish I had added it earlier. As for 'roids, if I could remove the players that I know took 'roids, I would. However, it's probably just best to assume the 1998-2002 numbers are a bit inflated, due to this issue. The year-by-year data would support that claim.

Jim - I certainly cannot reconcile your (or my) issues with WAR. I completely agree that this "research" isn't breaking new ground. However, it does give me a new avenue to explore, which I think will be worth pursuing.

As for the offensive part, your wish is my command. I added a part at the end, just for you!

Brad, I appreciate the amount of work you have put into this. Unfortunately, you already know my feelings about WAR. To this point, I don't think you have really showed us anything we didn't already "know". The relative values of WAR don't necessarily mean much, you have already explained why. We already knew that really good middle infielders and catchers are hard to find, especially ones who are consistently good for multiple years.

I suspect what your next study will show is that, with a few very rare exceptions, most of the value of the better middle infielders will come from defense. That will be especially true of shortstops. Since we are relying on UZR for that, that will make some of those conclusions unreliable. At least in my opinion.

Still, I appreciate your work. I might appreciate it more if it was strickly an offensive examination, and if you had used more traditional stats. Nevertheless, I appreciate what you are trying to show.

Nice article.
Two questions
1. What was the average age of these players when the good WAR were obtained.
2. Filter out the known or suspects steriod users(this will move the numbers greatly against the historical average).
Tnks

I would fully agree. The total zone rating that is used for WAR prior to 2002 really likes Gagne's defense. I think he was 6th in that span, behind guys like Ozzie Smith, Cal Ripken and Omar Vizquel. Of course, the way TZ is calculated is not perfect. It does seem to confirm some form of the eye-test though.