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  1. old nurse's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest
    It is something that could be studied. The data has been shown to be consistent year to year for catchers. It is also easy for catchers to gather a large sample in a short time.

    How consistent is the data for individual for pitchers? To get a better sample size pitching roles could be compared. Do mop up men do better since they are in low leverage situations? Is it more difficult for closers? Of all the Twins Burton has lost the greatest percentage of strikes this year so I am not sure how that fits.

    Max Marchi, Dan Turkenkopf and Mike Fast are the pioneers in this area. All of them have been hired by major league clubs. Perhaps this is the kind of detail they are doing for their organizations.
    As the correlation to pitch framing and ERA is very low, I would doubt it.
    They all share these common traits: They know sabermetrics, they know the latest assessment tools and how to use them, and as writers they can clearly articulate a thought on a subject that is newer to the audience.
    Fast was doing some work with hit f/x when he was hired. The thought being BABIP for a pitcher is not random. They were looking at a bunch of factors. Never found a follow up.
  2. Willihammer's Avatar
    Something I've noticed Pinto does with runners on base - wait till the last possible second to setup for a pitch for fear of tipping to the baserunner where the location of the pitch will be. This delays the umpire crouching and I suspect contributes to Pinto losing strikes.

    I hope you're right that he figures it out.

    Nice write-up
  3. jorgenswest's Avatar
    It is something that could be studied. The data has been shown to be consistent year to year for catchers. It is also easy for catchers to gather a large sample in a short time.

    How consistent is the data for individual for pitchers? To get a better sample size pitching roles could be compared. Do mop up men do better since they are in low leverage situations? Is it more difficult for closers? Of all the Twins Burton has lost the greatest percentage of strikes this year so I am not sure how that fits.

    Max Marchi, Dan Turkenkopf and Mike Fast are the pioneers in this area. All of them have been hired by major league clubs. Perhaps this is the kind of detail they are doing for their organizations.
  4. old nurse's Avatar
    Your own data could point to other factors affecting the call of the pitches. If it is pitch framing causing the ball to be called a strike you should relatively even numbers for all of the pitchers. That is not the case. Deduno has and Pelfrey had control issues. Their deviation is higher. Umpires are expecting them to be out of the zone and call it that way. Perkins pitches when the game is on the line, he does not get the free strikes. Umpires want to call a fair game when the game is on the line. Swarzak tends to pitch when the game is not on the line, he got more calls. That would support the notion the umpire wants to move the game along.
  5. ericchri's Avatar
    Both lefties on that list showed horrible with both (though so did Gibson and Pelfrey). I'd be curious to see Thielbar, just as an extra data point, though I honestly doubt you could determine anything by that.
  6. jorgenswest's Avatar
    I don't think it is set to 0. It happens to be close. The median team is slightly negative, but the 6 top teams weigh the data towards the positive side.

    team data

    Pinto isn't a good pitch framer. Suzuki isn't either. Both are better than Doumit. The Twins rank 30th again.
  7. Hosken Bombo Disco's Avatar
    Good work jorgenswest.. is the league +/- percentage right at 0.0? If so I'd say Pinto is just fine as a pitch framer. (selectively throwing out Correia and Pelfrey, both who will not be around here much longer.)
  8. jorgenswest's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse
    It was adjusted because there was a high rate of strikes being called on 0-3 and 1-3 counts. There was no adjustments or consideration ever given to the fact that there are significantly less calls per opportunity in extra innings. There is a decided variation in inning and pitch framing. That there is a variation by the inning would say there are other factors other than pitch framing going into these decisions thus the ability to impact the outcome is less.

    Any manager would say anything to get into the heads of the opponent . If he can convince someone to swing at outside/low pitches and miss, his pitcher is way ahead.

    Molina is having a career bad year at the plate. What are the other options? What is at AAA for the Rays probably would not hit, either. A 2 million contract on a low budget team Maddon has to play him.
    If you are interested, BP breaks down framing runs by count. The data by battery is linked above. They also have it organized by team and individual catcher in other data sets.

    Many teams value this skill in their rostering decisions. It doesn't appear to be something you value. I think the Twins agree with you.
  9. old nurse's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest
    Dan Turkenkopf's work that showed the run value of turning a strike into a ball. I think the change referred to was from the original .16 to .14 due to count. We haven't heard from him in a while because he was hired by the Rays two seasons ago. It is his manager with the famous quote about Molina saving 50 runs. It is his organization that employs Molina in spite of a slash line of 195/239/201.
    It was adjusted because there was a high rate of strikes being called on 0-3 and 1-3 counts. There was no adjustments or consideration ever given to the fact that there are significantly less calls per opportunity in extra innings. There is a decided variation in inning and pitch framing. That there is a variation by the inning would say there are other factors other than pitch framing going into these decisions thus the ability to impact the outcome is less.

    Any manager would say anything to get into the heads of the opponent . If he can convince someone to swing at outside/low pitches and miss, his pitcher is way ahead.

    Molina is having a career bad year at the plate. What are the other options? What is at AAA for the Rays probably would not hit, either. A 2 million contract on a low budget team Maddon has to play him.
  10. jorgenswest's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse
    There is the theory that pitch framing saves runs. Where is the actual data that proves it. Turkenkopf who was in on the idea from the start stated that there were not the runs saved as projected.
    Dan Turkenkopf's work that showed the run value of turning a strike into a ball. I think the change referred to was from the original .16 to .14 due to count. We haven't heard from him in a while because he was hired by the Rays two seasons ago. It is his manager with the famous quote about Molina saving 50 runs. It is his organization that employs Molina in spite of a slash line of 195/239/201.
  11. old nurse's Avatar
    There is the theory that pitch framing saves runs. Where is the actual data that proves it. Turkenkopf who was in on the idea from the start stated that there were not the runs saved as projected.
  12. naobermiller's Avatar
    Nice Data
  13. Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
    I basically tried to make the same point on Twitter tonight. For one, the Yankees haven't exactly been world beaters when it comes to the IFA market anyway. But this strategy is going to prove costly in my opinion. Luckily for them, cost is no issue. This certainly isn't going to turn their farm into anything special. They'd have been better off to take all the preps that fell in the draft and forfeit draft picks.
  14. old nurse's Avatar
    MLBprospect guide.com lists the following as amateur free agent signings in 2007. Note this includes players from Cuba, Japan, and Canada
    Kelvin De Leon OF $1,100,000 2007 D.R.
    Young Il-Jung RHP $1,000,000 2007 Korea
    Julio Teheran RHP $850,000 2007 Colombia
    Martin Perez LHP $580,000 2007 Venezuela
    Jefry Marte 3B $550,000 2007 D.R.
    Dae-Eun Rhee RHP $525,000 2007 Korea
    Cesar Puello OF $400,000 2007 D.R.
    Rymer Liriano OF $300,000 2007 D.R.
    Esmailin Caridad RHP $175,000 2007 D.R.
    Tomas Telis C $130,000 2007 Venezuela
    Roman Mendez RHP $125,000 2007 D.R.
    Wilfredo Boscan RHP $15,000 2007 Venezuela
    Enrique Burgos RHP 2007 Panama
    Arodys Vizcaino RHP 2007 D.R.
    Dimasther Delgado LHP 2007 Panama
    Chris Jakubauskas RHP 2007 amateur free agent
    Michael Almanzar 3B 2007 D.R.
    Hideki Okajima LHP 2007 Japan
    Che-Hsuan Lin OF 2007 Taiwan
    Junior Lake SS 2007 D.R.
    Kosuke Fukudome CF 2007 Japan
    Larry Suarez RHP 2007 Venezuela
    Alexei Ramirez SS 2007 Cuba
    CJ Retherford 3B 2007 NDFA
    Juan Duran OF 2007 D.R.
    Mariekson Gregorius SS 2007 Netherlands
    Jason Smit SS 2007 Austrailia
    Alexander Perez RHP 2007 D.R.
    Gustavo Nunez SS 2007 D.R.
    Avisail Garcia OF 2007 Venezuela
    Yuniesky Betancourt SS 2007 Cuba
    Tim Collins LHP 2007 NDFA
    Jean Segura 2B 2007 D.R.
    Manny Correa RHP 2007 D.R.
    Fabio Martinez RHP 2007 D.R.
    Alexi Amarista SS 2007 Venezuela
    Pedro Baez 3B 2007 D.R.
    Hiroki Kuroda RHP 2007 Japan
    Santos Arias RHP 2007 D.R.
    Adrian Salcedo RHP 2007 D.R.
    Daniel Santana SS 2007 D.R.
    Scott Diamond LHP 2007 NDFA
    Oswaldo Arcia OF 2007 Venezuela
    Jenrry Mejia RHP 2007 D.R.
    Jordany Valdespin 2B 2007 D.R.
    Jeurys Familia RHP 2007 D.R.
    Francisco Pena C 2007 D.R.
    Wilmer Flores SS 2007 Venezuela
    Jose Ramirez RHP 2007 D.R.
    Arnold Leon RHP 2007 Mexico
    Leandro Castro OF 2007 D.R.
    Starling Marte OF 2007 D.R.
    Masahide Kobayashi RHP 2007 amateur free agent
    Yasuhiko Yabuta RHP 2007 amateur free agent
    Jonathan Galvez SS 2007 D.R.
    Edinson Rincon 3B 2007 D.R.
    Gabriel Noriega SS 2007 Venezuela
    Jorge Bucardo RHP 2007 Nicaragua
    Richard Castillo RHP 2007 Venezuela
    Alexander Colome RHP 2007 D.R.
    Wilking Rodriguez RHP 2007 Venezuela
    Leury Garcia SS 2007 D.R.
    Manny Solis 3B 2007 D.R.
    Eury Perez OF 2007 D.R.
    Marcos Frias RHP 2007 D.R.
  15. Otwins's Avatar
    Very interesting. Thanks for the post. It is high stakes lottery.
  16. ericchri's Avatar
    Nice bit of research. Also interesting, the biggest success story of the bunch is from Colombia, not Venezuela or the DR where most of the big-namers are from.
  17. Willihammer's Avatar
    It was interesting watching the NESN broadcast during the Boston series - they pin a foxtrax on the screen similar to ESPN during the playoffs. It was clear the Twins were losing strikes. Suzuki just seems to give up on some pitches, almost like he cant be bothered to even try and frame them. I believe this is why he doesn't get some of the borderline calls - he doesn't seem to want them.
  18. Hosken Bombo Disco's Avatar
    Are umpires a variable?
  19. jorgenswest's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse
    Turkenkopf who did the some of the first writing on pitch framing found a .30 correlation between pitch framing and runs scored. That would be why some teams don't make it as big of deal.
    Turkenkopf also wrote one time that there was variability between what inning and score of the game had an effect on if pitch framing was effective or not.
    That data that is certain is how many pitches were miss called. The actual effect on the outcome of the game was not. Even at .30 correlation pitch framing has some effect. How much over the course of a season has not been shown.
    It probably should be added that Dan Turkenkopf has worked in the office of a major league team for the last two seasons. He and Mike Fast were significant contributors to the study. The Tampa Bay Rays hired him. I don't think there is any disagreement on which side of the argument the Rays have taken in this debate.
  20. old nurse's Avatar
    Turkenkopf who did the some of the first writing on pitch framing found a .30 correlation between pitch framing and runs scored. That would be why some teams don't make it as big of deal.
    Turkenkopf also wrote one time that there was variability between what inning and score of the game had an effect on if pitch framing was effective or not.
    That data that is certain is how many pitches were miss called. The actual effect on the outcome of the game was not. Even at .30 correlation pitch framing has some effect. How much over the course of a season has not been shown.
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