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  1. spycake's Avatar
    I don't think Duensing has been anything special against LHB since 2010, although I don't have his platoon splits broken down by starting/relief, so correct me if I am wrong. It might be why he's not a LOOGY right now. I'm guessing he either stays and re-signs cheaply or is non-tendered.
  2. Otwins's Avatar
    From the looks of the expected return I would keep him. If he starts pitching like he has in the past he is better than anything we would receive. As far as his salary status I would worry about that at year end.
  3. jorgenswest's Avatar
    Fair enough. Technology is reasonable solution. It certainly would help the Twins. Does it matter that this technology might only be available in the major leagues?
  4. h2oface's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest
    I don't think it is the arrogance of umpires that impacts the strike zone according to catcher. I think it is a catching skill. Since it is a skill, I appreciate watching catchers that are particularly good at it just as I appreciate watching shortstops good at picking a ball in the hole.
    I am with you on the "art" of catching. The fact is, it is impossible for a human to call the strike zone accurately and consistently, and have any two human umpires call the same zone. The pitch crosses the plate were it does (or doesn't), no matter where the catcher catches or frames the ball. We now have the technology to instantly call the pitch correctly game to game, pitch to pitch, no matter where the stadium is, what the weather, where the sun is, or who delivers the ball. The line of site angle created from looking over the inside shoulder of the catcher is particularly severe for the low part of the zone and the outside of the zone. Heaven help us if it is the perfect pitch on the low and outside corner of the zone. The umpire is just guessing. Always. And now they are exposed as quick as they can call it. (They even miss some of the inside pitches at the belt, right in front of them!) The umpire arrogance comes from standing behind horrible calls with pompous displays. Some say that is the human part of the game. I say it is, and always will be, the ANTI-human part of the game. It is the part that was embraced only because there was no other way to do it until this decade. It is the part that takes the game away from the players...... the humans that deserve to be deciding the game, not the umpire. The players are the human part of the game. The umpires are the anti-human part of the game. The whole "framing" issue is a perfect example of making something it is not, and it is a great example of why to make changes the improve the game, and give it back to the players. The batter deserves the perfect take for a ball, and the pitcher deserves the perfect strike that just cut across the front corner of the plate and ended up 8 inches outside by the time it gets to the catcher's glove. When the human eye no longer is doing the guessing, the game will become more human.
  5. jun's Avatar
    Albers should be called up to take the spot if Diamond gets demoted.
  6. jorgenswest's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by h2oface
    The very fact that we talk about pitch framing, and making something that is not a strike a strike, is a travesty for the game now that we have the technology to take the arrogant umpire's bad calls out of the game, and give the fair game to the players.
    I don't think it is the arrogance of umpires that impacts the strike zone according to catcher. I think it is a catching skill. Since it is a skill, I appreciate watching catchers that are particularly good at it just as I appreciate watching shortstops good at picking a ball in the hole.
  7. h2oface's Avatar
    The very fact that we talk about pitch framing, and making something that is not a strike a strike, is a travesty for the game now that we have the technology to take the arrogant umpire's bad calls out of the game, and give the fair game to the players.
  8. Old Twins Cap's Avatar
    Oh man, you are going to blame Diamond's performance on his catcher? Are you one of his parents or what?
  9. Anorthagen's Avatar
    I said the same with Correia and Doumit, it just doesn't work. My solution is to have Doumit only catch when Mauer can't.
  10. Brad Swanson's Avatar
    The more we learn about pitch framing, the more I begin to wonder the same thing. For a pitcher who needs to be very fine with his command, it would seem pitch framing would be especially important for Diamond. As you have pointed out in the past, Doumit rates as the worst catcher as far as pitch framing goes in the league, so getting him away from Diamond and letting Mauer frame for Diamond might make a big difference. Thanks for sharing the numbers!
  11. jorgenswest's Avatar
    There is probably a way to study where the extra runs came. It might be 5 in the first inning.

    We would probably give a couple back when a couple guys are on base mid game and 8-9 are due up.
  12. Shane Wahl's Avatar
    It is strange. I would bet that there would a 5 run difference in the first inning *alone*.
  13. jorgenswest's Avatar
    I am not sure there would be significant difference had I used Bill James, Marcel, Oliver, or Steamer.

    I decided to choose one before I looked at the data. Otherwise, I might pick the one that happens to have Dozier lower and some of the others higher to better attain the results I expected.

    Dozier's OPS projections range from 646 to 672. ZIPS had him at 649.

    Willingham's were 816 to 833. ZIPS had him at 822.

    ZIPS was least favorable to Doumit and Morneau.

    I don't think the results would be significantly different had I chosen different projections.

    The projections seem low, but three of those players are in the decline phase of their careers with some injury history.
  14. Shane Wahl's Avatar
    Um, those projections of batters 2-7 seem pretty low.
  15. Brad Swanson's Avatar
    Thanks for posting, I always enjoy your analysis.

    One of my favorite qualities of research is that the results speak for themselves. You can massage the results to fit a narrative, or you can present results as they are. In this case, the batting order doesn't mean a whole lot, but the it also doesn't mean nothing. I think that moving Mauer to 2 and Dozier to 8 will have more impact on a game-by-game basis, rather than a season-long basis. This means that sample sizes will always be too small to use for predictive value, but the results of the individual games can still be impacted.

    Of course, you are right about the ZIPS projections. If Dozier performs better than these projections, then the move will result in even fewer runs.
  16. old nurse's Avatar
    With the money the Cubs have to spend, the results should be better. Every year a new bad team.
  17. glunn's Avatar
    I think that the Cubs are different because they will have plenty of money to spend once they are ready to spend it. And the Astros may never be able to spend very much. I think that the Twins are somewhere in the middle.
  18. old nurse's Avatar
    Since the thread was on pitching. Fangraphs defines a good to great pitcher as one with a WAR above 3. There was only 35 of them last year in the majors, 46 the year before. A solid starter as one with a WAR of 2-3. There was only 36 of those last year, 21 the year before. Given those numbers are from fangraphs they should meet your standard. Random clicking on the names on the solid range of players reveals that either these pitchers are really inconsistent as their WAR score fluctuates widely, or there is an issue with the metric.
  19. old nurse's Avatar
    Jay, as bad as people want to quantify things, some things you can't without subjectivity. When there is subjectivity, there is error.
  20. jay's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse
    To me, the concept of WAR is not bad, the method of the computation is the problem.

    Heyman had to say this on WAR

    Jamey Carroll has a better WAR than Derek Jeter, 2.6 to 2.5. That's absurd.


    And Denard Span has a better WAR than Josh Hamilton, 4.0 to 3.7. Even more ridiculous.
    And Heymen supports the concept
    In both of those cases, it's the defensive valuations that are causing that. They both play defensively-demanding positions that can generate a lot of value (or negative value) in WAR calculations. WAR is hammering Jeter on his range and Hamilton on a bit of everything.

    It's hard/impossible to defend something like that, especially given the remaining inaccuracies in defensive measurements. However, I will say that it raises awareness to the fact that we commonly value run production over run prevention.
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