Let's not pipe dream about 2013. There is merit in trading some talent--provided the yield is bountiful. It's tempting to trade Willingham, but to dismiss his future contributions is just wrong. Consider the near revolt of season ticket holders after 2011, trading every useful veteran position player except for Mauer would yield a volcanic eruption. What's so wrong with older pitchers? Most of those in the next wave of Twins talent is at least two years away so some placeholders are needed--people better than the 2012's rotation to say the least. It's the owner's money, not yours. If we fans have to watch a losing team in 2013, at least make them interesting enough so that there is some realistic chance that the team could win the day's game.
If we traded both Willingham and Span, we would have Revere in CF and Parmalee in RF. We could come up with an affordable LF"er. But what if we had Shields/Hellickson...Minor/Hanson, Delgado/Teheran in our rotation? Throw in a FA like Edwin Jackson.
SP: Shields, Minor, E. Jax, Diamond, (Baker, Gibson, Hendricks, Deduno). What a different rotation. One that could contend in the A/L/ Central.
I'm all for trading Willingham to the Braves for pitching and Span to the Rays for pitching. Look at the lineups of the Rays, A's Braves...they are underwhelming. What those teams can do is PITCH. We could/should move BOTH Willingham and Span to load up in the primary area we are WEAK...Pitching.
Good stuff here!
I want to play for the Twins; I'll beg? Should they give me a contract? Teams can't make decisions based on factors like that. They have to field the best possible team they can.
Morneau isn't what he used to be. It's sad, but it's the reality. Span is different because he is younger and in his prime. He might be worth keeping, but Willingham, Morneau, Doumit and the like are only worth keeping around if the team thinks they can content next year.
I am totally with you. Reading your article from March of 2012 was eye-opening. I thought going into 2012 that things would be fine and that 2011 was just a blip. I was wrong. I worry about 2013 as well, but not as much about 2014 and after that.
That will change for me depending on the moves they make this winter. If they sign Jeremy Guthrie and Joe Blanton types to 2-3 year deals, I'll start to worry about 2014 and 2015. Those moves do nothing to improve a team by 30 wins. If they sign guys like that, they won't trade Morneau or Willingham, possibly not even at the deadline in July.
My biggest worry is that the team is roughly 5 games under .500 around the All-Star Break. This is pretty much what happened in 2011 and the team did not make the moves they needed to make to improve the team in the long-term. Granted, keeping Kubel and Cuddyer gave them more draft picks, one of which ended up being Berrios, but that can't happen this time.
If they wait on Willingham, he could start to decline. Honestly, his value is likely as high as it will ever be. If they don't trade Morneau, my worry is that they will re-sign him and that would be a mistake in my opinion.
I have a lot of worries! Regardless, the moves they make this off-season need to be shark moves. If they miss out on the big names, they should pass on the lesser names altogether and start a massive overhaul of the roster, in the name of improving the farm system. The farm system is actually on the rise, and infusing it with more talent would make things a lot more interesting come 2014 and beyond.
Thanks for the article, I really enjoyed it and it really got me thinking (as you can see)!
I agree with going young. 15 years ago there were no prospects to fast track. 8-10 years ago there were major league players at most positions, so letting the kids develop one level at a time made sense. Now, the team needs major league talent at several positions, trade what they can to get this talent or to stock the minor leagues and start bringing up/advancing Arcia, Sano, Hicks, etc... to see what they are made of. Several teams have done this over the past few years and for every Harper, Machado, Garcia, etc... there have been failures and there is no promise that those who have had success will sustain it, but you don't know if you don't try. 6-8 year plans for every prospect just seems too generic, players mature at different rates and handle success/failure differently.
My apologies to the Urbina family.
"pitchers jailed for murder in their home country"
It was only attempted murder. You should have included UUU-- just for his initials if nothing else.
Best way for the Twins would be to trade for pitching. Difficult but it can be done because several small market teams are looking for Cost Controled hitting. This should work to the Twins advantage if we do not pay too much or buy the wrong pitcher. Oakland, Seattle and Tampa Bay all fit this profile. Washington is another option, but has a higher budget.
very nice analysis...
Yes, it is. What is the price of a 33-year-old reliever. Can you find a comparable non-closer. Burton, is, sadly in the make $2-4 million and shut up. He may be given closer duties (think Rauch or Hawkins) but will never get a permanent job at his age....because of track record. A team wouldmore than likely try an upcomer than just reward him with the higher paying job.
They can guarantee Baker by picking up his option.
If he can produce 2 WAR, he will exceed the value of his option.
Why would Baker want to sign here? Would want him only on a two or three year deal and do not think he will do that.
Hate to see the team trading away guys like Span and Morneau especially ... they practically beg to stay. That does a lot for a team foundation.
Sign Baker. Find a good free agent.
Looks like the most reasonable quick fix is a #2-3 type FA signing, clearly "overpaying" in the process.
WHY WHY WHY is everybody assuming this was their top priority just because it was done now? You do the deals you can, when you can. Doumit was willing, so were the Twins, it was done very quickly. Does anybody truly think that TR doesn't believe starting pitching is a huge priority? Seriously people, open your eyes!
I would love to see the Twinscentric group begin debate on the blueprint for 2013. To me, Doumit is the first winter free agent signing and the first step Terry Ryan has made in his blueprint for 2013.
If trading Span is in your blueprint, how do you fill RF?
Would you pick up options on Baker or Capps?
Do you assume the same budget going into 2013?
Doumit would not have been part of my blueprint at this point. I would go for pitching and see what was left to fill out the bench. It is not a knock on Doumit. I think his value exceeds the 0.0 WAR assigned to him by Baseball Reference. I don't want to argue that he is worth the contract. I do argue that the Twins have greater needs than catcher.
Good thoughts on this subject. Thanks for sharing!
The few assets they should be willing to trade are decline phase players still playing well. Willingham and Morneau may be the only two chips that can return real starting pitching prospects.
There are possible LF and DH solutions in the minors for next year. There are no starting pitching solutions. Those positions are also easier to acquire in free agents.
Ticket sales will be down.
Trade Willingham and Morneau? How many people will buy tickets to see this product.