I wrote this last night at PitchersDuel.blogspot.com, but decided it was relevant here as well. Should the Twins go after any of these guys?

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Midnight tonight, the final day of November, is the last chance for teams to tender contracts to eligible players. Eligibility is based on service time and generally includes any players with less than 6 years in the major leagues.

Leading up to midnight, news will be coming in regarding team's decisions on these players, many of whom are very interesting. Be it injuries or unrealistic salary expectations, there are going to be a lot of players with bright futures ahead of them searching for jobs. Because I'm cooped up in the library tonight, I'll periodically check in and comment on noteworthy transactions and analyze how some of these players could help the Twins (or any team).

Starting Pitchers

• Jair Jurrjens: Jair posted a 120 career ERA+ over 115 starts before 2012. Looking like an anchor in the Braves rotation going into last season, Jurrjens struggled mightily, spending the majority of the year in AAA. His velocity and strikeout rates have been trending down, which is never a good sign. However, he has been plagued with knee and groin injuries that could potentially be the root of the problem. Jurrjens was ultimately non-tendered because he would have almost certainly earned $5.5 million (equal to his 2012 pay) had the Braves taken him to arbitration. As a result, there should be significant interest in his services for next season and will have an outside shot at whichever team's rotation he chooses.
• Mike Pelfrey: He's been an inconsistent pitcher for the Mets, looking like a top of the rotation guy in 2008 and 2010 and looking like a #5 at best in 2009 and 2011. Most low-strikeout pitchers will have a wide distribution of success as their margin for error is relatively smaller. The biggest issue here is that Pelfrey will be returning from Tommy John surgery that occurred last April. Obviously there is a ton of uncertainty when you're dealing with such an injury, however, so many pitchers are returning as healthy as ever that Pelfrey is certainly worth a shot for a team like the Twins who could use any help they can get.
• Jeff Karstens: Karstens is interesting for a couple of reasons; first of all, DERP and second of all his numbers show he's actually been productive. Jeff's K/9 has been increasing as his BB/9 has steadily declined; in 2012 he reached 6.6 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9. Granted, a switch from the National League isn't a nudge in the right direction, Karstens absolutely deserves a shot at the back of some manager's rotation.
• John Lannan: Lefty starter, similar story to Pelfrey. Lannan has the potential to be a passable #4, but more likely a decent #5.
• Jacob Brigham: He's been passed back and forth from the Rangers to the Cubs back to the Rangers in exchange for Geo Soto and Barret Loux. Brigham has hit 97 mph in the past, but now sits in the lower 90's. I'm not sure what to think about him, but Brigham is a name to keep your eye on as a potential minor league deal with an outside shot at the rotation

Outfielders

• Andres Torres: One of the older players on this list, Torres, 34, presents an interesting skillset the Twins would be wise to try out. Torres has a little pop (.130 ISO career), good wheels (73% career base-stealer) and very good glove (Postitive UZR's in left, right and center). In addition, Torres shows good patience, with a 10% walk rate. However, all this comes with significant questions about his bat, he's hit .221 and .230 over the past two seasons. I would expect a slight uptick in the batting average, perhaps into the .240 range, which would really tie a nice bow on the package that is Andres Torres. I'm mentioning him as a target for the Twins, because with Span gone, they will be counting Chris Parmelee in right field; I love Parmelee's bat, but he's a terrible outfielder. Torres, a switch-hitter who mashes lefties, would be an ideal platoon partner with Parmelee, or at the very least, a fourth-outfielder to push Parmelee and Revere every day and spell Willingham when he has his inevitable DL stint.
• Ben Francisco: A long Indian, Francisco profiles as a third-division right fielder. That is, if you disregard 2012 when he spent time in Toronto, Houston and Tampa Bay. Francisco, a right-handed hitter, has shown decent power and on-base skills. Despite troubles in 2011 and 2012, I view Francisco as bounce back candidate in 2013.

So that's it for the night. No huge shockers. A couple relievers to keep your eye on are Brian Wilson and Peter Moylan, not that either will land in the Twin Cities, but they will be interesting to watch regardless. Here's looking forward to the Winter Meetings on Monday! Cheers!

In a season with few positive notes for the Minnesota Twins, one had to be Scott Diamond's breakout. On April 6th, Diamond was barely an afterthought; he had been selected in the previous year's Rule V draft and stashed in AAA where he failed to impress anybody, pitching himself to a 4-14 record with a 5.56 ERA in 2011.


By May 8th, Diamond had generated some buzz, starting 6 games and allowing just 12 runs in his third season in AAA. His first major league start was a resounding success as he pitched 7 scoreless innings. The rest of 2012 went much the same way, Diamond became the Twins most reliable starter. Wait, that's barely a compliment given the Twins' rotation options, let me rephrase that. Diamond became an above average starter in the American League.


Diamond's success comes with plenty of questions though. For one, how did he do that? Another, what do we know about the pitcher himself? And lastly, what can we expect out of him in the future?


The Numbers


The easiest entryway into this case study is to look at what Diamond accomplished in 2012. He started 27 games netting 173 innings (207.2 including AAA time). In that time, the Canadian lasted at least five innings in all but one start. Diamond recorded a 3.54 ERA, well below the league average of 4.08. His FIP (3.94) and xFIP (3.93) tell slightly stories, though still impressive.


These numbers reflect a few very good underlying skills, namely his control and groundball ability. Diamond led the American League yielding 1.6 unintentional walks per game and never allowing more than 3 in any outing. On top of that, Scott was able to induce 53.4% groundballs when the ball was put in play. For context, that's tenth in all of baseball.


Diamond was able to translate these two elite (and very Twins-pitcher-like) skills into a nice season, despite a 4.7 SO/9 rate (2nd worst in the AL). Few pitchers, if any, are able to have sustainable success with such low K-rates, so his ability to miss bats going forward will be something to watch.


Interestingly, the statistics that are often correlated with luck don't discout Diamond's success in 2012. His babip, .292 is not out of line, especially for a ground ball pitcher and his HR/FB percentage of 11.4 is also right about average as is his strand rate (73.3%). These data suggest Diamond's breakout isn't a total mirage. The extent to which he regresses will be largely a function of his striking out a few more and continuing to avoid giving up free passes.


The Repertoire (almost all data from BrooksBaseball.net, great resource)

• Four-seam fastball (90.00 mph)
• Slider (81.99 mph)
• Changeup (84.35 mph)

Scott Diamond relied heavily on his fastball in 2012, throwing it 60% of the time. The pitch rarely got any swings-and-misses (2.79%) but resulted in groundballs 13.42% of the time and was located well as only 36.07% of them went for balls.




Diamond's slider was primarily an out pitch, used mostly when he was in the count. Surprisingly, the slider was also a deadly accurate weapon, only 28.43% of them resulted in balls. Not so surprising is that the slider produced the most whiffs of any of his pitches (15.05%).




The change-up was used almost exclusively against righties, about 16% in those situations, and only five times all year versus a lefty. The pitch yielded more whiffs than his fastball but didn't get as many grounders. All this leads me to believe that his change-up is more a "show-me" pitch than anything else.




When put all together, Diamond's repertoire is pretty simple: a two pitch mix against lefties and three against right-handed hitters.




A lot of Diamonds success comes from his ability to pound the lower, inside half of the strike zone (as shown below) resulting in a lot of groundballs.

Interestingly, Diamond's fastball actually ticked upwards from 2011 to 2012. He gained about 0.5 mph on his fastball and 1.5 mph on his slider. There are many possible reasons for the uptick: weather or increased stamina and strength to name a few. These are all likely causes of the uptick, however, they cannot be measured. Of factors that can be measured I found one interesting change from 2011 to 2012: his arm angle.

As seen in the chart below, Diamond lowered his arm angle (roughly 3-4" out and 2-3"down).

My initial feeling on this was a bit of confusion. Usually pitchers with lower arm angles don't throw as hard, at least that's my perception. I e-mailed Andy about his thoughts on the change and corroborated my belief that the change would add movement to his slider, but he also had some other enlightening idas on the subject. Particularly, that lowering the arm angle could free up his motion and actually add velocity to his pitches.


With this knowledge, it's a little easier to accept that Diamond has truly "broken out" to some degree. Under the basis of changed mechanics, more velocity and increased control, Diamond was able to change (or enhance) his skills as a pitcher


The Future
Predicting the future of a pitcher is impossible, but given what we do know, we can make a fairly good guess. Diamond's basic skills of control and ability to get groundballs are likely here to stay, however, his inability of striking out batters is very troubling and will absolutely limit his upside.


In fact, I think we saw Diamond's upside in 2012. That isn't to disparage his future, Diamond was very good for the Twins last season and could have been #2 or #3 starter on many teams. It is likely that Diamond will regress towards a league average 4.00 ERA predicted by FIP, xFIP and SIERA (all ERA estimators).


Sadly enough for the Twins, a league average pitcher could be their ace in 2013 given the current outlook, making Scott Diamond an invaluable piece to puzzle. However, nobody should expect him to make significant strides from the success of his first full season.

cross-posted on PitchersDuel.blogspot.com

As posted on pitchersduel.blogspot.com

Each major league team is allotted 25 roster spots at any given time. Any combination of hitters and pitchers is legal. Up until the 1990's it was common to see a team carry just 10 pitchers (often less), allowing flexibility on the offensive side, while relying more heavily on 'ace' relievers to come in for multiple innings at a time if the starter couldn't finish the game. Needless to say, that has changed a good amount in the past 20 years, much to the chagrin of many baseball analysts (and myself <--- not an analyst). The waste of carrying about 12 pitchers is fairly evident if you think about it. Those extra 2 or 3 pitchers are almost certainly not of the highest quality, and are taking up innings from more effective pitchers. For example, on the Twins, pitchers such as Matt Maloney and Jeff Gray are getting significant time on the mound. The innings would be better off with Glen Perkins, Brian Duensing or even Matt Capps, and the roster spots would be better of given to a competent third baseman (Trevor Plouffe got the start tonight) like Sean Burroughs or Luke Hughes who were essentially waived in order to maintain the bloated bullpen. This strategy often takes roster spots away from good hitters like Hideki Matsui or Johnny Damon, who only recently found jobs, or versatile defensive specialists are useful in many late-game or pitcher-determined situations. Now, usually an example like the one I used in the Twins, would be would be used as an argument against the 13 man pitching staff. However, in this case, I'm not so sure.


I'll try to make this short, but the Twins starting pitchers suck. A lot. The best starter ERA is 4.91, belonging to Carl Pavano. Only Pavano has completed the sixth inning more than twice this season. The average length of a Twins' start this year? A tick above 5 innings. Given this suckitude (suckosity?), relievers have been counted on for about 4 innings a game, or at least 96 innings over the 24 game schedule to date (that's without adding in extra inning games). Extrapolated out to a year, that's about 650 innings of relief. To put that in perspective, even if the Twins carried 8 relievers, each would have to pitch 81 innings. Then to put that in perspective, only six relievers in the entire MLB through more than 81 innings last year. As you can see, given the massive workload put on their relievers, carrying 13 pitchers is a necessity as a bare minimum for the Twins right now. I don't like to see that, I don't like to say that, but with the state of the Twins currently, it's just true.


Clearly something needs to change, whether it's regression of the starters back to more acceptable production levels or Gardenhire forcing the starters to take on more of a workload. The modern reliever is not built to be effective at 80+ innings a season (that's up for debate, but is a whole different issue), and the Twins will see that soon. In the meantime, we may be witnessing one of the first necessary 13 man pitching staffs in history.

As posted on pitchersduel.blogspot.com

When I was driving from Minneapolis to Ann Arbor this past weekend, I was lucky enough to catch a Beloit Snappers at Pohlman Field. This was my first minor league game, and it was a uniquely 'minor league' experience. The stadium is tucked away between a quiet neighborhood and a soccer field, covering about the same amount of acreage as a high-school ballpark. That is, a high-school field with about 20 autograph seekers, beer, carnival games and a gang of six year-old's. The field itself is a gem buried in the quaint surroundings, beautiful grass, well-groomed like Luke Scott's beard. However, what matters is what took place on the field, so I'll stop waxing poetic about the stadium and get to the important stuff.

Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario were the obvious attractions, hell, I would have passed through town had they not been there. I'm obviously not a scout, so please don't take this for anything more than it's worth. What I can say for a fact, is that Sano is freaking beast of a man. Watching the team warm up in the outfield, it was immediately apparent which player he was, #33. Sano is all of 6 foot 3, but still looks very athletic. His body compares to 2012 Hanley Ramirez, though I know they have very different skill sets. I say 2012 Hanley Ramirez and not 2005 Hanley Ramirez for a reason. Sano has the thick, powerful lower body of a veteran but still very athletic frame (much like current Hanley, as 2005 Hanley was a much thinner). Just based on body alone, I don't see Sano ending up at first base, Miguel Cabrera style. His skill at the position is another matter. On the positive side, his arm is as advertised, he won't ever have a problem getting the ball to first. He also impressed me by communicating well and taking charge on a pop-fly between him and the catcher. On the negative side, Sano missed a couple glove side grounders that would be routine in the majors. Lateral movement may be a something he needs to work on. As for the bat, the man can mash. He has huge power, which is apparent in every swing he takes, and I can't imagine he'll ever have problems putting a ball out of any park. However, his approach was not so impressive; in his first at bat, he swung at the first pitch, making bad contact (and still landing the ball near the warning track). In his subsequent appearances he took a couple pitches, but still showed questionable pitch selection.

Eddie Rosario also reinforced a lot of what I had read and heard. Defensively, he looks athletic, like a prototypical, compact second-baseman. He turned a very nice double play showing off quick hands and very good arm. The scorer's were lenient on at least one play that could have been called an error, where he simply did not get his glove down on a pretty routine grounder. At the plate, he looked very comfortable and showed great discipline, going deep into the count a couple times and fouling off pitches. The scorer's also gave him a break ruling a double as a triple, in which the left fielder had trouble with the ball in the corner. Despite the ruling, the stinging, opposite field liner/grounder was an impressive showcase of his hitting ability. Rosario might have a long road ahead of him based on his lack of defensive polish, but he certainly looks like a big leaguer in other respects.

I went on much longer than I anticipated on Sano and Rosario, but I wanted to touch on a handful of other players. The Snapper's starting pitcher, Tim Shibuya, struck out 11 and walked none in 6 and 2/3 innings. Sounds impressive, and given how little help he got from the defense, only allowing 3 runs was damn good. However, Shibuya got a lot more called third strikes than swinging strikes, so I wouldn't get expectations for him too high. The other pitcher I wanted to write about was Corey Williams, a third-round pick out of Vanderbilt. Williams passed the eye test and the batter test, finishing his inning easily and quickly giving up just one hit. However, I had read that he was a power lefty hitting mid-90's with the fastball, but the Twins scout sitting in front of me had most of his pitches coming in at 89-90 on his Striker radar gun. I'm not sure if this is was a different pitch, perhaps a two-seam fastball or cutter (though it didn't have much movement) or if this was a bad outing, but I'll be keeping an eye out for reports on his velocity as the season goes on.

Some other quick notes:
Tyler Grimes- The shortstop made two early errors, one fielding and one throwing. Besides that, he didn't look bad, but he now has 7 on the season and errors have been a problem for him; I texted Andy, who said he played against Grimes last year and that he led the conference in errors. Besides that, Andy also threw in that Grimes "squares balls up", which was fairly evident in watching him. He has a strong and compact line drive swing, that probably won't generate too many homers, but should produce solid batting averages at some point.
Daniel Ortiz- He honestly didn't stand out too much, except in one at-bat where he hit a solo opposite-field home run. It was impressive in that he didn't get all of the ball, but it just kept going. He certainly has power, but the rest of his game was very ordinary, including a double down the right field line that was really just a grounder past the first baseman.
Adam Petterson- MiLB.com lists Adam as 5'9" and 170 lbs. and that might be generous, he was easily the smallest guy on the field. That said, he hit the ball, and hit it hard; his double reached the center field wall (380 feet).
Jhon Goncalves (Gone-Cal-Vus)- Last but certainly not least, nobody made more of an impression on me this weekend than Jhon. Being realistic about his future as a pro, I don't expect to see him in the majors, but I will be rooting for it. There is no way his listing of 5'11" and 159 lbs is even close to his real size. Jhon looked like a first baseman playing center field. Though he made all the plays, I don't think he'll be a long-term center fielder in the organization. He hit well too, showing a good approach and some pop with a solid double. Really for no other reason than for him looking totally out of place in center field, I'll be rooting for the kid.


Nils