Originally published at KnuckleballsBlog.com

With the Twins likely done making moves this winter, and with Spring Training games just around the corner, I thought it would be a good time to put my predictive powers to the test and try and suss-out the Twins’ plan for the Opening Day starter. With the Twins opening the season at home this year, the Opening Day start has a little more significance than it has the past couple of years when the Twins started the season on the road. The Twins have not started the year at home since 2009, and the last Twins pitcher to win the Opening Day game at home was Livan Hernandez in 2008 against the Los Angeles Angels. In fact, the Twins haven’t won an Opening Day game since 2008, working on an 0-4 streak losing 6-1 in 2009 against the Mariners, 6-3 against the Angels in 2010, 11-3 in 2011 against the Blue Jays, and 4-2 a year ago in Camden Yards against the Orioles. An Opening Day win would be a nice change of pace.

Since the Twins moved to Minnesota to start the 1961 season, Opening Day starters are just 14-25, with 12 no decisions. Not exactly a great track record on baseball’s biggest day, but with names like Camilo Pascual, Jim Kaat, Jim Perry, Bert Blyleven, Frank Viola, Brad Radke, and Johan Santana, the Twins’ Opening Day starter has historically been some of the most beloved players in Twins history.
Looking over the current 40-man roster, and some non-roster invites to Spring Training, there are several players who have a shot at being the Opening Day starter. I’ll rank them from least likely to start to most likely to start on Opening Day.
Rafael Perez (1% chance to start Opening Day) – Perez was just signed to a Minor League deal with the club a week ago. He’s spent his entire big league career working out of the bullpen, and has not had a K/9 above 6 since 2008. He has put up strong ERAs every year except 2009, but with the declining strike out rates and a ballooning walk rate, his ERA has been propped up by an above average strand rate. Perez has an uphill battle to even make the team as a left-handed reliever, and an even tougher climb into the starting rotation.
Rich Harden (4%) – Like Perez, Harden is with the Twins on a Minor League deal. Harden has not pitched in the big leagues since 2011, and while he has had a consistently above average strike out rate, he has not been an above average pitcher since 2009. There is some question as to whether or not Harden’s shoulder can stand up to the high pitch counts associated with starting, so there is a pretty decent chance that if he makes the team at all, the Twins would prefer that he work out of the bullpen to keep him healthy for the entire season. I like him more than Perez because Harden has a track record as a starting pitcher, and because the Twins are so desperately in need of strike outs, but he is still a long shot to even break camp with the Twins.
Mike Pelfrey (7%) – Pelfrey signed a 1-year deal with the Twins this offseason hoping to rebuild his value coming off of Tommy-John surgery. Pelfrey is still not a ful year removed from surgery, so there are concerns about his ability to be ready to start the season in the rotation. Unlike Harden and Perez, if he is healthy, Pelfrey has a guaranteed spot in the rotation. If I was confident that Pelfrey would be healthy when the Twins break camp I would have him higher, but it is early in camp and I anticipate that he will end up needing an extra few weeks go get all the way up to speed.
Liam Hendriks (10%) – Hendriks is a fringe candidate to make the 25-man roster out of Spring Training, but with questions about health among several of the arms ahead of him on the pecking order, he is likely to be the next man in if any one of the projected five starters are not ready to start the season. Even a healthy Liam Hendriks is a long shot to take the ball for the Twins on Opening Day as Ron Gardenhire usually likes to reward his veterans.
Kevin Correia (12%) – Poor Kevin Correia has been written off since before the ink was dry on his shiny-new 2-year $10 million dollar contract. Correia certainly is not the type of pitcher that would typically get the ball on baseball’s biggest stage, but the Twins seem to like his veteran leadership and clubhouse presence, something that went a long way forCarl Pavano (who started back-to-back Openers in 2011 and 2012). Pavano had almost a year and a half of starts with the Twins under his belt prior to taking the mound on Opening Day, but with no other experienced veterans on the roster, Correia might end up pitching by default.
Kyle Gibson (13%) – The Twins seem dead set on starting the year with Aaron Hicks in center field field despite not having any Major League experience. If the Twins are trying to build excitement in 2013 and invite fans to buy into the Twins future, Gibson could wind up pitching on Opening Day to help build momentum toward 2014 and beyond. But like Pelfry, Gibson is coming off of Tommy-John surgery, and unlike Pelfrey, Gibson figures heavily into the Twins future plans, so they are likely to treat him with kid gloves. The Twins are looking to limit his inning totals in 2013, so putting him on the mound from Day 1 does not do a lot to aid that effort.
Scott Diamond (15%) – After playing the role of savior for the 2012 Twins, Diamond was the overwhelming favorite to take the ball on Opening Day. If Diamond is healthy he will undoubtedly be pitching on April 1st. But Diamond had surgery in December to remove some bone chips from his throwing elbow and is reported to be progressing through his rehab slower than anticipated. There is still an outside chance that Diamond is healthy when the Twins open 2013, but the Twins want Diamond healthy long-term, so if any question marks remain about his health, expect the Twins to take things nice and slow.
Vance Worley (38%) – Vance Worley seems to have become the Twins de facto Opening Day starter because there really is not anyone else with a real shot at keeping him from it. He has a lot of things working in his favor; he is healthy, he is young and exciting, has a chance to be a long-term part of the Twins ballclub, and he is not Kevin Correia (which is to say he is not old, ineffective, and overpaid).
When the Twins traded away Ben Revere for Worley and Trevor May I would not have though Worley had any shot to pitch on Opening Day, but he seems to be the last man standing.
-ERolfPleiss

Read more about the Minnesota Twins at KnuckleballsBlog.com, including Eddie Rosario Turning Heads.

This is the first post in a series highlighting the Twins number one draft picks, originally published at BaseballTwins.com

Eddie Leon, All-American

In 1965, the first year of the MLB draft, the Twins had the ninth selection and used it on a talented shortstop from the University of Arizona, Eddie Leon. Leon ended up not signing with the Twins and went back to Arizona and earned All-American honors in 1966. Selected the following year, third overall by the Chicago Cubs in the June Secondary draft, Leon once again failed to sign with the club that drafted him and went back to school. Like he did in 1966, after returning to campus he once again earned All-American honors. Finally, in 1967, Leon was drafted by the Cleveland Indians in the second round of the June Secondary draft and at the age of 20 reported to the Double-A Pawtucket Indians in the Eastern League. When asked why he declined to sign his first times through the draft, Leon told The Baseball Historian that not only was he not getting what he felt was an "adequate" bonus for a first round draft pick, but also because he wanted to finish his Civil Engineering degree at the University of Arizona.
Leon played 51 games for the Indians and hit .202/.261/.307 and made 13 errors in 211 chances posting just a .938 fielding percentage. Despite his poor performance at AA Leon was promoted to Triple-A Portland for the final 17 games of the year, where Leon hit slightly better .233/.283/.349 and made just two errors in 62 chances. In 1968 Leon played the full season in Portland, building off his late season success from '67. Leon's offensive numbers were up across the board, and while he committed 30 errors in 705 chances, he was rewarded for a successful season with a brief September call up with the Cleveland Indians. Eddie Leon made his Major League debut on September 9, 1968 playing in Metropolitan Stadium against the Minnesota Twins, the team that first drafted him three years ago, entering the game in the 9th inning as a pinch runner for shortstop Larry Brown. Two days later, once again against the Twins, Eddie Leon was back in the lineup as a 10th inning defensive replacement for Pinch Hitter Jimmie Hall. In the top of the 12th inning, with the Indians having just taken a 1-0 lead and runners on first and second with no outs, Leon stepped to the plate with a chance to extend the Indians lead and promptly struck out. Leon would appear in five more games that September but would not have another plate appearance.

Eddie Leon, Shortstop

In 1969 Leon was back in Triple-A, but after a strong first half in which he hit .262/.313/.349 and had his best fielding percentage of his Minor League career, he was promoted back to Cleveland and was the regular short stop for the remainder of the year. For the next three years Leon was the starting shortstop for the Cleveland Indians. Following the 1972 season, Leon was traded to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for Outfielder Walt Williams. 1973 was a struggle for Eddie Leon and he hit just .228/.291/.291. The early 1970s was certainly not a time of high offensive output, but Leon's hitting line was good enough only for a 62 OPS+ (only slightly better than perennial Twins All-Star, Drew Butera). Leon was a part time player in 1974 and only played in 31 games for the White Sox. Often appearing as a pinch hitter or late-inning defensive replacement, Leon only accumulated 53 plate appearances and hit just .109/.143/.130.
Following the 1974 season, Leon was once again traded, this time going to the New York Yankees in exchange for 31 year old reliever Cecil Upshaw. Eddie Leon played just two innings for the Yankees, entering the May 4th game in Milwaukee as a defensive replacement in the 8th inning and not receiving an at bat. That would be Leon's final appearance in Major League baseball as he was released by the Yankees the following day and spent the remainder of 1975 and all of 1976 playing baseball in the Mexican League for the Tampico Alijadores.

Read more about the Minnesota Twins at BaseballTwins.com, including the most recent post about Darin Mastroianni's Heat Maps.

Originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com

Last week the Minnesota Twins added eight players to their 40-man roster, maxing out their roster with 40 players. The Twins will likely remove at least one player prior to the upcoming Rule 5 draft, but for now, the Twins do not have room for any additions. If Spring Training started tomorrow, here are the 40 players that would be competing for a coveted 25-man roster spot and a place on the 2013 Opening Day roster. We'll start with the Pitchers today, and look at the position players later this week.

B.J. Hermsen, recently added to the Twins 40-man roster. PhotoCredit: Knuckleballs

Right Handed Pitchers (Age, Position, Highest 2012 Level)
Alex Burnett - 25, Reliever, MLB - Burnett appeared in 67 games for the Twins in 2012 and posted the best ERA of his career (3.52). Unfortunately, Burnett struck out batters at the lowest rate in his career (4.5/9), while still walking more than three batters per nine innings and his 2012 success is unlikely to continue in 2013, if he makes the 25-man roster, it will be as a middle-inning, low-leverage, reliever.

Jared Burton - 31, Reliever, MLB - Like Alex Burnett, Burton also posted the best ERA of his career (2.18). Unlike Burnett, Burton's success came from an increase in stike out rates and a decrease in walk rates. Burton is almost a lock for the 25-man roster, and will likely be the eighth inning set up man.

Cole De Vries - 27, Starter, MLB - De Vries was a long shot to make the 25-man roster in 2012, but because of a string of injuries and generally poor play from other Twins starters, De Vries started 16 games en route to a 4.11 ERA. De Vries is a typical Twins-type pitcher, low walks, low strike outs, and is a long shot to make the 25-man roster again in 2013, but unless the Twins acquire multiple starting pitchers through trades or free agency, the Twins do not have a lot of other competent options.

Casey Fien - Casey Fien, Reliever, MLB - Fien returned to Major League action after spending 2011 in the Minors. Fien had several surprisingly good appearances toward the end of the year, earning a 2.06 ERA to go along with 32Ks in just 35.0 IP. Fien's previous MLB performance and Minor League track record does not indicate that he's likely to continue to perform at a high level, but he's gained the trust of Ron Gardenhire and has a farily good chance to make the 25-man roster with a strong performance this spring.

Kyle Gibson - Kyle Gibson, Starter, AAA - Gibson spent all of 2012 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and pitched in four different leagues during his rehab, including the Arizona Fall League where the big right-hander was said to be consistently throwing 93-94 MPH with good control. If fully healthy, Gibson is in line to be one of the Twins five starters in 2013.

Deolis Guerra - 23, Reliever, AAA - Guerra split time in 2012 between Double-A New Britain and Triple-A Rochester and posted a 4.11 ERA in his first full season as a reliever, with high strike out numbers (9.1K/9) and low walk totals (3.3/9). At 23 Guerra is still fairly young for AAA and I expect him to start the season in Rochester, though he will have a chance to play in Minnesota before the season ends. Edit: Per John Bonnes and ScottyB, Deolis Guerra is out of options, so he'll need to make the 25-man roster or risk being claimed off of waivers.

Liam Hendriks - 23, Starter, MLB - Hendriks struggled to turn his Minor League success into Major League succes and spent the better part of 2012 searching for his first big league victory. Hendriks finished the year 1-8 with a 5.59 ERA and only 50 strike outs over 85.1 innings. Ideally Hendriks would start 2013 in Rochester, working to fine tune his command against lesser hitters before being asked to join the Twins. If Hendriks makes the Opening Day roster it will likely be because the Twins lack other viable options rather than their belief in Hendriks ability to succeed at a high level.

B.J. Hermsen - 22, Starter, AA - Hermsen is another Twins-type pitcher with low strike out numbers and in Hermsen's case, extremely low walk rates (1.6/9). Hermsen is unlikely to merit serious consideration for the starting rotation in 2013 because he has no experience above AA. Hermsen has continually put up ERAs around 3, and if he can continue to put up good numbers in AAA he should earn himself a September call-up and, if the Twins do not add a couple of free agents on multi-year deals, could be a candidate to start for the Twins in 2014.

Lester Oliveros - 24, Reliever, MLB - Oliveros had Tommy John surgery in 2012 and will spend most, if not all, of 2013 rehabbing his elbow. He will be moved to the 60-day DL once Spring Training begins, opening up a roster spot.

Josh Roenicke - 30, Reliever, MLB - Claimed off of waivers from the Colorado Rockies, Roenicke is unlikely to start the season in the Twins bullpen and instead the Twins will probably attempt to pass Roenicke through waivers later this spring and use him as roster depth in Rochester. However, Roenicke did post an impressive 3.25 ERA last season with the Rockies, so the Twins might be willing to give him a longer look in Spring Training before ultimately relegating him to the Minor Leagues.

Anthony Swarzak - 27, Long Man/Spot Starter, MLB - The Twins have seen enough of Swarzak over the past couple of years (198.2 IP) to know what they have out of the 27-year old. Swarzak has struggled when he's been asked to start, but as a long man in the bullpen he's performed moderately well (5.79 ERA as Starter, 4.03 as reliever). I believe that the Twins will bring Swarzak back in a similar role in 2013, but if they are intent on finding a spot for B.J. Hermsen, this could be somewhere they'd be willing to make a switch.

Michael Tonkin - 23, Reliever/Closer, High-A - While Tonkin has never pitched above High-A Fort Myers, he posted a 12.6 K/9 in 2012 and followed that up with a spectacular Arizona Fall League performance posting a 2.45 ERA over 14.2 innings with a 0.75 WHIP. Tonkin will likely start 2012 at Double-A New Britain, but he could certainly be in Rochester by the All-Star break.

Tim Wood - 30, Closer, Reliever, MLB - Wood was claimed off of waivers from the Pittsburgh Pirates after spending all of 2012 in Triple-A. As a likely closer, Wood does not have the kind of strike out numbers you would typically expect, but he's posted a 3.49 and 2.19 ERA each of the last two seasons in Triple-A so he's doing something right. You have to wonder why a guy with a 2.19 ERA did not get a September call-up with the Pirates as they were once again spiraling their way to another losing record. Before his successful 2011 and 2012 seasons, Wood struggled mightily in the PCL, splitting time between the Miami Marlins and Texas Rangers systems. Do not expect to see Wood on the 25-man roster this spring, as he's likely to spend most of the season in Rochester.

Left Handed Pitchers
Scott Diamond - 26, Starter, MLB - Diamond is the lone Twins starter to be guaranteed a spot in the 2013 rotation, so as long as he makes it through Spring Training without injury he has a secure spot on the 25-man roster. Diamond is now 2 years removed from being drafted by the Twins in the Rule 5 draft and while his strike out numbers are dreadfully low (12.6% strike out rate), he manages to keep the base paths clear by limiting walks and inducing ground balls. If Diamond can repeat his 2012 numbers the Twins will be ecstatic.

Brian Duensing - 29, Reliever/LOOGY/Starter, MLB - With the Twins again searching for answers from their starting rotation Duensing given another chance to win a spot as a starter. He didn't fare well. Overall, Duensing has a 4.57 ERA as a starter compared to just a 3.38 ERA out of the pen. As a starter Duensing is subject to facing a lot more right handed batters (.302/.358/.473, AGV/OBP/SLG), whereas in the bullpen he can be used selectively against left handed batters (.217/.261/.298). Hopefully the Twins understand who Duensing is at this point in his career and keep him in the pen. He's a lock to be on the 25-man roster and should begin the year as the teams primary LOOGY (Left-handed One Out guY).

Pedro Hernandez - 23, Starter, MLB - Hernandez is one of the players the Twins acquired in the Francisco Liriano deal with the White Sox. Hernandez has just one disastrous Major League start, and has only 52.1 innings at Triple-A. The Twins should send Hernandez back to Rochester to start 2013, and unless things go poorly for the Twins rotation again this year, he's unlikely to put on a big league uniform anytime before September.

Glen Perkins - 29, Reliever/Closer, MLB - After signing a 4 year $11.85 million dollar deal this past winter, Glen Perkins went out and had one of the best years of his career, posting a 2.56 ERA to go along with 78 strike outs and just 16 walks in 70.1 innings. Perkins will start 2013 as the Twins primary closer, a role he shared at times in 2012 with Matt Capps and Jared Burton.

Tyler Robertson - 24, Reliever/LOOGY, MLB - Making his Major League debut in 2012, Robertson performed poorly, but his Minor League performance in 2012, prior to his stint with the Twins, show the signs of life you like to see from a big left-hander. He gets plenty of strike outs (10.4/9 innings), and he doesn't give up a lot of a home runs. For Robertson the biggest issue is going to be control, as he walked 14 batters in his 25 innings for the Twins a year ago. Robertson is great against left-handed batters (.190/.268/.317), but if he cannot learn to get out right-handed hitters (.290/.436/.484) he is not going to stick around for long. Robertson should start the year as the Twins #2 LOOGY and a middle reliever.

Caleb Thielbar - 25, Reliever, AAA - Thielbar made it as far as AAA in 2012, but at the end of 2011 he had never pitched above High-A. Thielbar likely needs some additional Minor League seasoning before the Twins are ready to put him on the 25-man roster, especially after a terrible Arizona Fall League permanence in which he posted an 11.05 ERA with 8 walks in just 13.0 innings.

The Twins definitely have plenty of arms on the 40-man roster, but they don't have a lot of talent in the bunch. If the Twins start the season with this same group of arms they'll have Scott Diamond, Kyle Gibson, and Liam Hendriks as their one-two-three starters, and will be well on their way to another 90 loss season. It is more likely that the Twins sign at least two free agent pitchers, and bring in another arm via trade, but until anything happens, there is not a lot of hope readily available in Minnesota.


For a look at Twins position players on the 40-man roster, click over to Knuckleballs.

-ERolfPleiss

Episode 13 of the Twins baseball podcast, Talk To Contact (@TalkToContact), is now available for download via iTunes or by clicking here.

This week Paul and I take a look at Twins prospect (?) Daniel Ortiz and Hall of Famer Harmon Killebrew. We again field a bunch of questions from the interwebs. Among the topics discussed form the mail bag: Joe Benson and his mullet, the Miami/Toronto trade, and regular season wins versus playoff success. We also have an update on the email from Larien who wanted to have a relationship and a business proposal. Tune in for Minnesota Twins banter and a whole lot more.

You can follow Paul on Twitter (@BaseballPirate) or read his writing at the Puckett’s Pond.

Oh, and I was a guest on this past Friday’s episode of the Phil Naessens Show. I talked a little bit about more about the Marlins/Blue Jays trade, and assess the current state of the Twins offseason.

- ERolfPleiss
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If you enjoy our podcast, please take a couple extra minutes and rate and review us on iTunes (ratings and reviews have magical iTunes powers, which help us become warlocks)

This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.

Last night, Bryce Harper and Mike Trout were awarded the Rookie of the Year awards, in the National and American League, respectively. Harper and Trout did amazing things as rookies, and in the case of Mike Trout, had the best season a rookie has ever had. Harper helped the Washington Nationals win their division, and Trout did his part to keep the Los Angeles Angels relevant until the final week of the season. Minnesota Twins, on the other hand, had plenty of rookies suit up for them in 2012, but outside of Scott Diamond, none of them did much of anything to help the Twins win games (in fairness, the rest of the team was not exactly doing a lot to help the Twins win games either).

Scott Diamond (photo: Genevieve Ross/AP)

MLB classifies rookies as any player with less than 130 at bats or 50 innings pitched or any player with less 45 or less days on the active roster during any part of the season other than September). Using the at bat and innings pitched limits, the Twins used 16 different players in 2012 that qualified as rookies: Brian Dozier, Chris Parmelee, Darin Mastroianni, Pedro Florimon, Matt Carson, Eduardo Escobar, Erik Komatsu, Chris Herrmann, Scott Diamond, Liam Hendriks, Sam Deduno, Cole De Vries, Tyler Robertson, Lester Oliveros, Kyle Waldrop, and Casey Fien. That's 16 out of 47 total players used in 2012 for the Twins, or a little bit more than 1 out of every 3 Twins. That is a lot of youth especially considering the Twins only called up a limited number of players in September, and just two rookies (Herrmann and Escobar).

As a group, those 16 rookies accounted for a grand total of 4.1 Wins Above Replacement. They were led by Scott Diamond with 2.2 WAR, and at the other end was Liam Hendriks, -1.2 WAR. In between the Twins saw surprisingly positive performances from waiver claim Darin Mastroianni(.8 WAR) and defensive specialist Pedro Florimon (.8 WAR). The Twins were also disappointed by break-out candidate Chris Parmelee (-.6 WAR) and would-be lefty-specialist Tyler Robertson.

Here, alphabetically, is a closer look at each of the Twins' 2012 rookies, including their status heading into 2013, as several players will still retain their rookie eligibility.

Matt Carson - 31, OF, .227/.246/.242 (BA/OBP/SLG) - Carson exhausted his rookie eligibility in 2012, which is pretty impressive for a guy that is 31 years old and had played in parts of two previous seasons. The Twins called Matt Carson up late in the season when they were a little short on outfielders and Ron Gardenhire really seemed to enjoy having him around. He's unlikely to return to Minneapolis in 2013, as he is off of the 40 man roster, and the Twins have plenty of young outfielders just waiting to break onto the Major League roster.

Cole De Vries - 27, RHP, 87.2/4.11/58/18 (IP/ERA/SO/BB) - Cole De Vries was the right guy in the right place at the right time in 2012. After signing as an undrafted free-agent in 2006 out of the University of Minnesota, De Vries spent the better part of the last six years quietly working his way through the Minnesota's farm system. De Vries struggled in 2010 (after being converted to a bullpen guy) between AA New Britain and AAA Rochester, but in 2011 he turned things around and despite starting the year back in Double-A, he finished the year in Rochester with a combined 3.40 ERA. De Vries started 2012 in Rochester (once again as a starting pitcher) and when the arms were falling off of every Twins starting pitcher with a hear beat, he was called up to the big leagues and performed better than many had expected. De Vries has lost his rookie eligibility heading into 2013, but he remains on the 40-man roster and has an outside chance of being the Twins' 5th starter this spring.

Samuel Deduno - 29, RHP, 79.0/4.44/57/53 - Deduno was having himself a very surprising 2012 campaign until a string of bad starts toward the tail end of the season ballooned his ERA over 4. Deduno is a guy that has great movement on his pitches, but unfortunately not even he knows where the ball is likely to end up and as a result, Deduno finished the year with almost as many walks as strike outs. Deduno seemed to get a handle on his wildness about half way through his season, and will need to show increased control this spring but could battle De Vries for that 5th spot in the rotation. Deduno is on the 40-man roster and has exhausted his rookie eligibility.

Scott Diamond - 26, LHP, 173.0/3.54/90/31 - He turned out to be the Twins' most effective starting pitcher in 2012, leading the team in innings, and providing the Twins with a reliable performance every fifth day. Without Diamond the Twins' best starter would have been Samuel Deduno, certainly not anyone's idea of a staff ace. Diamond is the only starting pitcher from the 2012 staff that has been guaranteed a spot in the 2013 rotation, and if the Twins can do enough in free agency, Diamond slots in as a solid number 3. Like Deduno, Diamond remains on the 40-man roster and is no longer eligible as a rookie.

...Continue reading at Knuckleballsblog.com

-ERolfPleiss

This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.

It is way to early to start thinking about the MLB draft, especially with real, meaningful baseball being played. But it probably does not hurt to start familiarizing ourselves with some of the names that might be floating around the top of the pre-draft rankings. If the draft was to start today, the Twins would find themselves with the third overall selection. Here are the first 6 of 11 potential first round draft picks the Twins could take in 2013.

Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford
Appel is back in the draft for the third time after being selected in the 15th round by the Detroit Tigers in the 15th round of the 2009 draft, and again by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the first round (8th overall) by the Pittsburgh Pirates. He has a fastball that sits in the mid 90s and a nice looping slider that devastates right handed batters. Appel will be 22 next July and with the current state of Minnesota’s pitching staff, he would instantly become one of the best pitchers in the organization.
Ryne Stanek, RHP, Arkansas
Stanek was originally drafted in the 3rd round of the 2010 draft by the Seattle Marinersbut chose instead to attend college at the University of Arkansas.From his Arkansas Razorbacksprofile, he has a low 90s fastaball and a “tremendous” breaking ball. He was 8-4 in 2012 as a weekend starter for the Razorbacks and was an All-SEC performer. Matt Garrioch atMinorLeagueBall.com says of Stanek, “One of the best college pitches I have seen over the last 3 years.” He’ll need another strong season in the SEC to move onto the Twins’ radar at the top of the 1st round, but with a big time need for starting pitchers, you can’t count him out.
Jeremy Martinez, C, Mater Dei HS (California)
Jeremy Martinez is ESPN’s number 1 rated HS prospect on the ESPN 60 list. He’s committed to playing for the USC Trojans in 2013, but if the Twins are looking down the road for a guy to replace Joe Mauer, Martinez could be their man. Power showcase.com lists his pop-time from home to 2nd base at 1.86 seconds, which is pretty quick no matter who you are (MLB average is usually right around 1.8-1.9). In 2011 he was one of just two juniors on the USA 18 and Under squad so he’s been a front runner for the 2013 draft for some time now. The Twins seem to like current Minor League catcher Chris Herrmann, but Martinez would have a much higher ceiling than any catcher in the Twins organization.
Austin Wilson, OF, Stanford
Austin Wilson was drafted in the 12th round of the 2010 draft by the St. Louis Cardinals but found his way to onto Stanford Cardinal squad instead of going pro. As a sophomore in 2012 Wilson hit .285 and lead the team with 56 runs scored and 10 home runs. He also walked 24 times and was hit 15 more, raising his OBP to .389. Wilson will need to cut down on his strike outs (44) without sacrificing any of his power to move up the draft boards prior to the 2013 draft.

...Continue reading at Knuckleballsblog.com

Originally posted at Knuckleballs.

Yesterday afternoon 32,261 baseball fans were treated to a 4.1 inning performance fromNick Blackburn in which more batters hit home runs (2) than struck out (1). Before he was yanked midway through the 5th inning, Blackburn faced 23 batters, and gave up 10 hits and 8 runs (all earned). Unfortunately for Twins fans, this marked Blackburn’s 8th start of 2012 in which he gave up 5 or more earned runs and failed to get through the 6th inning. In fact, Blackburn has pitched into the 7th inning just once in 2012, just last week when he went 6.2 innings and gave up just a single earned run, his best start since July 15th of 2011 when he was able to go seven full innings without giving up any runs, despite being tagged with a 2-1 loss.
Originally drafted in the 29th round of the 2001 amateur draft out of Seminole State College, Blackburn made his MLB debut as a September call-up in 2007, going 0-2 in 11.2 innings spread out over 6 relief appearances. In 2008 he made the team coming out of Spring Training and has been a perennial fixture in the Twins rotation since then. Blackburn pitched fairly well in 2008 and 2009, posting ERAs just a blip over 4 in back to back seasons, and averaged almost 200 innings a year. Coming off of his 2009 season the Twins inked Blackburn to a 4 year $14 million dollar extension that included an $8 million dollar team option for 2014. Since that time he has struggled to stay healthy and seen his ERA increase, despite playing in the pitcher friendly confines of Target Field for half of his starts.

Nick Blackburn

2010 was a down year for Blackburn as his ERA rose to a career high 5.24 due in large part to career highs in HR/9 and BB/9 and a career low 3.8 SO/9. In 2011 Blackburn rebounded early in the season and had a 3.64 ERA through the end of June and looked like he had finally become the pitcher the Twins had hoped he would be. He was striking out almost 1 more batter per 9 than he was in 2010 and his BB/9 were down to a minuscule .84 walks per nine innings. However, Blackburn fell off significantly after the All-Star break and was shut down at the end of August and never made another appearance in 2011, finishing the year with just 148.1 innings pitched and an ERA of 4.49.
Heading into 2012 the Twins were hopeful that Nick Blackburn would return from the arm issues that cost him the end of the 2011 season and once again be the dependable innings eater he was in 2008, 2009, and even the first half of 2011. Unfortunately things have been anything but smooth for Blackburn in 2012. His ERA is 7.46, he’s giving up more home runs than any other time in his career, and opposing teams are just spraying the ball all over the field against him. Opponents are hitting .327/.368/.566 against him, good enough for an OPS of .934, the same OPS as Melky Cabrera. Definitely not a recipe for success.

...
Read on at Knuckleballs

This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.

The last time the Twins were any good (2010) they were swept out of the post season once again by the New York Yankees. The Twins finished that season with 84 wins, 4th best in all of baseball. They were rewarded for their success with the 30th selection in the 2011 draft. With that pick they selected Levi Michael.

At the time of the draft Levi Michael and the University of North Caroline Tar Heels were playing their way into the College World Series (where they promptly made a two game exit). Levi Michael was in the midst of a fairly strong junior season (.289/.434/.434 (BA/OBP/SLG)), but he dealt with an ankle injury early on in that season which nagged him for a good part of the year. His sophomore season at UNC was his best, hitting .343/.484/.575 and ranked as the 13th best hitter in the ACC. While Michael was never projected to be a power hitter, his on-base skills (more walks than strikeouts 47/41) and his speed, coupled with pretty decent range on the defensive side of the ball made him one of, if not the top shortstops in the draft.


PHOTO BY SCOTT BUTHERUS, NAPLES NEWS

Selecting Levi Michael was a departure from the Twins' usual draft strategy of drafting toolsy high schoolers (think Ben Revere and Aaron Hicks) and college arms (Kyle Gibson and Alex Wimmers), and was their first college position player taken since Travis Lee in 1996.* Perhaps the Twins selected Michael understanding that he was one of the best players available to them with the 30th pick and they certainly had a system void of shortstops with high upsides.

The Twins signed Michael late for $1.75 million and despite not having a chance to play competitive baseball for the Twins in 2011, they started him at High A playing a combination of shortstop and second base for the Ft. Myers Miracle. Going into 2012 Baseball America rated Michael as the Twins 6th best prospect. TheTwins' rationale at the time had to be that Levi Michael was a polished college player who should not have much trouble adjusting to professional baseball, and could rise quickly through the Twins MiLB system.

*The Twins whiffed on Lee in 1996, failing to sign him in the two weeks following the draft. He eventually signed a $10 million dollar 4-year contract with the expansion Arizona Diamondbacks and was their starting first basemen in their inaugural season in 1998 (and came in 3rd in Rookie of the Year voting). Lee posted a career bWAR of 5.3.

Read about Levi Michael's 2012 season at Knuckleballs

Originally published at www.Knuckleballsblog.com


I recently received a review copy of Harmon Killebrew: Ultimate Slugger. The book was written by Steve Aschburner with a foreword by Jim Thome and published by Triumph Books.

Steve Aschburner is a long time sports writer, covering all four major league sports and NCAA basketball. His primary area of emphasis is NBA basketball, but between this book, and his 2008 work "The Good, the Bad & the Ugly: Minnesota Twins", it is clear that he has a soft spot for America's Pastime and the Minnesota Twins.
As a Twins fan not old enough to have seen Harmon Killebrew play for the Senators/Twins, nor old enough even to remember him calling games for the Twins on television, reading Ultimate Slugger provided an excellent opportunity to familiarize myself with one of the greatest men to ever play professional baseball. Not only did I learn a lot about Killebrew, but I learned a lot about the game of baseball as it was played nearly 50 years ago.

The book is straight forward enough, it starts with a brief synopsis of Killebrew's family lineage, includes some stories about Killebrew as a young kind, and then follows his career through his early days as a "Bonus Baby" in the 1950s right through his playing days and his strong presence with the Twins up until 2011.

The two things I liked best about Ultimate Slugger was the way Aschburner captured the spirit of Killebrew and the insights into Major League Baseball as it existed in the 50s and 60s. Aschburner best captured Killebrew through interviews and stories from his life long friends. He provided insight into the MLB gone-by with just enough statistical analysis to give you an idea of how the game was played and who the biggest players were, and throwing in some anecdotes that highlight the essence of the game.

One thing that particularly struck me was the story of how Harmon Killebrew's first trip to the Major Leagues. Killebrew joined the Washington Senators during a 19 game road trip. A NINETEEN GAME ROAD TRIP (The Twins' longest road trip in 2012 is 10 games, and that's one of the longest road trips in MLB this year). But when Killebrew joined the Senators on that road trip, it was not just the first time he'd been to a Major League game, but the first time he'd even seen a Major League stadium. Because he was a "bonus baby" Killebrew did not have the benefit of Minor League seasoning, and his first two years he played sporadically, mostly being used as a pinch hitter or pinch runner. Pretty interesting start for a man that would become an MLB icon.

The biggest drawback to the book is Aschburner's writing style. As a seasoned sports writer, his book reads more like a 230 page newspaper column than a regular biography. Aschburner uses more than his fair share of hokey transitions and cliches to chronicle the life of Harmon Killebrew, but that's really the only knock on the book.
If you're a Twins fan looking to gain more insight into the life and stories that surrounded Harmon Killebrew you should definitely pick up a copy* of "Harmon Killebrew: Ultimate Slugger".

*Knuckleballs will be running a contest during the upcoming All-Star break and giving away two copies of "Harmon Killebrew: Ultimate Slugger". Stay tuned!