When Target Field first opened in 2010, something unexpected quickly became evident. Although the park's dimensions were somewhat modeled after the Metrodome, and the intent of Target Field was to be a ballpark that evenly favored both hitter and pitcher, everyone noticed that Target Field had seemingly become Petco Park Midwest. You didn't need ESPN's Park Factors to know that it was extremely difficult to hit the ball over the fence at 1 Twins Way, though Park Factors did confirm what we could see on FSN. Target Field's HR park factor was 0.682, which demonstrated that Minneapolis was the hardest city to homer in all of MLB. To give you an idea of how this park factor is calculated, it's:

((Home HRS + Home HRA) / Home G) / ((Away HRS + Away HRA) / Away G)

Home HRS = HR hit at home
Home HRA = HR allowed at home
Away HRS = HR hit away
Away HRA = HR allowed away
Home G = Home games
Away G = Away games

Thus, a HR park factor of 1.000 meant that in a team's season (say, the Twins), they would have hit and allowed an equal number of home runs both at home and on the road. Being less than 1.000, Target Field allowed significantly fewer home runs than all other ballparks combined that the Twins played in during the 2010 season, and thus had the appearance that it was a pitcher's park.

While the home runs hit (or failed to be hit) at Target Field got all the press, many people conveniently ignored many other offensive stats at Target Field. Despite the dearth of big flies, Target Field allowed just slightly fewer runs than those other ballparks the Twins occupied in 2010 (0.962), it was virtually even in hits allowed (0.996), and was actually above average in doubles and triples (1.097 and 1.171, respectively). Although many of us argued that those home runs in the Metrodome were turning into outs at Target Field, in actuality they were turning into outs and doubles and triples.

In 2011, it was a different story, though it still painted Target Field in a negative light, at least from a hitter's point of view. The ballpark was starting to trend more into the even field that was intended, but it still wasn't entirely there. Target Field was still under 1.000 for runs (0.944), home runs (0.913), and now doubles and triples (0.930 and 0.943, respectively), while the hits were again virtually even (1.010). Thus, Target Field was still a pitcher's park, but now only slightly.

This brings us to this season, and with the exception of the home runs, Target Field has actually started leaning towards being a hitter's ballpark. That's right. Take a look as Target Field has evolved since 2010 (MLB ranks are in parentheses).

Click to embiggen to your heart's content.

Back in 2010, we were discussing how hitters would want to avoid Target Field because of the lack of home runs, while pitchers would be enticed to come here. This year, we can easily argue the opposite, that hitters would actually want to come to Minnesota to take advantage of the slightly superior hitting environment.

As for why this has changed, there could be several hypotheses. We all learned that to hit a home run in Target Field, you had to pull the ball down the lines, and the Twins found a hitter that could do just that in Josh Willingham, along with adding other hitters that had hitting profiles that would fit Target Field (Ryan Doumit). Maybe the hitters themselves learned to adjust and finally figured out how to hit in Target Field. Then there's always Jason Giambi's dry concrete theory from 2010, where once the concrete in a ballpark is completely dry, the ball will have an easier time flying out of the seats (unbelievably, I cannot find a link for this quote online). However, that theory sure didn't apply to New Yankee Stadium in 2009 when it led the major leagues in the home run park factor category in just its first season in existence.

So, the next time one of your buddies tries to comment on how Target Field is a terrible place for hitters, throw this post in his/her face. The home runs may still not be coming, but when it comes to virtually every other aspect of offense, this ballpark has become a small haven for hitters.

As the July 31st trade deadline approaches, the Twins are judging which players should be dealt. Denard Span and Francisco Liriano are atop that list, but perhaps the most valuable player Minnesota possesses will likely remain here into August. Josh Willingham, who has been even better than I think anyone expected, is oddly not being shopped around, according to 1500 ESPN.

Willingham currently has a .271/.384/.551 triple slash this year, and that doesn’t even include his 2 HR game from Tuesday night. Even excluding those 2 HR, this season has easily been Willingham’s best of his career. His .935 OPS in 2012 is .088 higher than his career, and .072 higher than his previous career best in OPS (2009 with Washington). His WAR is already a career best, though a slump definitely could change that.

With all these positives, along with good health, Willingham’s trade value is sky-high. But, the Twins don’t want to trade him, and that is a huge mistake.

The Twins are citing the fear that trading Willingham after signing him to a 3-year contract will chase away future free agents from signing multi-year contracts in Minnesota. I laugh at this argument. When the Twins signed Willingham, his 3-year, $21 million contract was easily the largest contract the Twins ever handed out to a free agent. Yes, they have signed Joe Mauer, Joe Nathan, Johan Santana, and others to heftier contracts, but Willingham’s contract was both the longest and most expensive free agent contract in Twins franchise history. The closest to topping his contract was Carl Pavano’s 2-year, $16.5 million contract signed prior to the 2011 season.

Clearly, the Twins have never been big players in free agency, so why are they afraid of chasing away mid-level free agents? Besides, if the team is willing to accept that they are rebuilding, signing Willingham-level players would no longer be a priority. Also, the Twins handed out a 2-year contract extension to Ryan Doumit, who originally came to Minnesota on a 1-year, $3 million contract. If Terry Ryan fears other players will shy away from joining the Twins because of a Willingham trade, the he could always counter with Doumit’s extension as an example where they kept a player instead of dealing him.

There is likely another reason that the Twins brass hasn’t shared, but I think is quite relevant. In trading Willingham, the Twins would lose one of their potential big stars for 2013. Next season, the big draw is Joe Mauer and…. who else? Ryan Doumit? Not really. Justin Morneau? He’s no longer the player he was prior to his concussions. Trevor Plouffe? This 2012 outburst has been nice, but we have to be wary that he might just be this year’s 2011 Brent Lillibridge. Keeping Willingham would provide another draw for fans, especially those that are still convinced that Mauer is a waste of $23 million per year.

However, as I mentioned before, this season has been a career year for Willingham. Next season, he’s likely going to regress to something around his career norms. There’s always the risk that he puts up numbers below his averages, or he gets hurt and misses part of the year. The likelihood of him having another year like this one is not good, and the Twins should recognize that and take advantage while they still have the ability.

In trading Willingham, the Twins do sacrifice a bit of the near future, but they could solve many problems that could arise in the next couple years. For one, they have been lacking good starting pitching and middle infielders for a while now. A trade could bring back a prospect or two that could fill either one or both of these holes in 2014. Denard Span might have similar trade value to Willingham right now, but I have to think that teams would find Willingham as the more attractive option of these two players right now.

The Twins have had a history lately of selling players when their trade value is extremely low. Holding on to Willingham after this season would be a colossal mistake, and trading him within the next week while his value has peaked would greatly help the team in 2014 and beyond.

The Scene

Alexi Casilla on 3B, Jamey Carroll on 2B. Denard Span hits a grounder to Eric Hosmer at first base. Hosmer fires home to Salvador Perez, who chases Casilla all the way back to 3B. However, Carroll also advances to 3B, while Span hustles around and makes it to 2B. Casilla, upon seeing the other two baserunners safe, deliberately runs past 3B. Perez gives up chasing Casilla as he's now out of the baseline, and he tags Carroll, hoping for a double play. However, after some hesitation, the umpires only calls Casilla out and allows Carroll to stay at 3B. The 4 umpires then have a conversation, and ultimately decide that they made the right call.

As it turns out, they were actually wrong.

Why?

For my explanation, I turn to a slew of rules:

7.01
A runner acquires the right to an unoccupied base when he touches it before he is out. He is then entitled to it until he is put out, or forced to vacate it for another runner legally entitled to that base.

7.03(a)
Two runners may not occupy a base, but if, while the ball is alive, two runners are touching a base, the following runner shall be out when tagged and the preceding runner is entitled to the base, unless Rule 7.03(b) applies.

7.03(b)
If a runner is forced to advance by reason of the batter becoming a runner and two runners are touching a base to which the following runner is forced, the following runner is entitled to the base and the preceding runner shall be out when tagged or when a fielder possesses the ball and touches the base to which such preceding runner is forced.

Why are these important?

7.01
This means that Casilla was entitled to 3B, while Carroll was entitled to 2B when the play began. Although Carroll ran to 3B and was standing on it before Casilla returned to the base, the second sentence of this rule does not apply, as Carroll was not forced to run to 3B (there was not a baserunner on 1B when the play started). This is why 3B remains Casilla's base throughout the entire play.

7.03(a)
Remember that Casilla was entitled to 3B. Thus, even though he was off the base and Carroll was standing on it, it was still technically Casilla's base. This rule states that if both runners were standing on 3B, then Carroll would be tagged out and Casilla would stay on 3B. Obviously, this is not what happened. Casilla ran past 3B while Carroll was standing on it, and Perez tagged Carroll before Casilla was called out for running out of the basepath. Since Carroll was the following runner and was tagged before Casilla was called out, this should have resulted in a double play. However, rule 7.03(a) does have an exception if 7.03(b) comes into play.

7.03(b)
But, this rule does not matter. This only applies if Casilla and Carroll were forced to advance, as in if the bases had been loaded or they had been on 1st and 2nd. Since they started on 2nd and 3rd, there was no runner on 1st and Span was the batter, neither runner was forced to advance. Yes, even when Span ran to 2nd base, because Span himself was not forced to advance.

Summary

This play should have resulted in a double play. Casilla was entitled to 3B, so even though Carroll occupied it, it was Casilla's base. Carroll was tagged before the umpire called Casilla out for running out of the baseline, and since Carroll was the following runner, Rule 7.03(a) states that Carroll should have been called out. Subsequently, Casilla would have been called out for running out of the baseline, thus how the double play should have been the correct call.

How did you know this?

This play has happened in the past. Also, a similar play was featured in the "What's The Call" feature of Sports Illustrated for Kids many, many years ago.

By now, you’ve probably heard about the dominant stretch R.A. Dickey has put together over his last few starts. He’s thrown back-to-back 1 hitters, and here’s his stat line from those two games combined: 18 IP, 1 R (unearned), 2 H, 2 BB, 25 K. In particular, look at that K/BB ratio. From a knuckleballer! Now how about his last 6 starts?: 48.2 IP, 21 H, 2 R (1 ER), 5 BB, 63 K, 3 complete games.

As a Twins fan, it may be a bit bittersweet to see this from Dickey, because he was actually a Twin the year prior to joining the New York Mets. But, if you do a little fact-checking, you’ll see that the Twins actually had the dominant Dickey for part of his single season in Minnesota.

Back when the Twins chose to release Dickey, he left with a 4.62 ERA, .286 batting average allowed, and a below-average 5.88 K/9 and 4.20 BB/9. However, I found that Dickey had a string of great outings for the Twins, and the rest of his season was quite poor. Back in Nov. 2009, I wrote about this and found that from May 1 to July 1, Dickey had the following line*: 33.2 IP, 1.34 ERA, 27 H, 11 BB, 24 K. For the remainder of the season, this is what he had: 29.2 IP, 8.49 ERA, 49 H, 19 BB, 18 K

* In my 2009 blog post, it appears as though I credited Dickey with an additional inning, so this is why my numbers now and then do not match up for IP and ERA.

While the numbers aren’t quite the same as what Dickey is doing now in New York, it does illustrate that for a time, he seemed to have figured out the knuckleball, and that for several months, Twins fans were treated to a similar R.A. Dickey as what Mets fans (and baseball fans in general) are seeing now.

I will have to correct something I said in my post from a couple years ago, though. I had originally said that I thought in order for Dickey to have more success, he’d have to throw the knuckler slower. Well, I guess I was wrong, as Dickey’s gone and thrown his knuckler at whatever speed he chooses. He’s averaging about 77 MPH on it (about 2 MPH harder than when he was with the Twins), but he can dial it up to 81 and will throw it in the 60s as well. In that is likely what has aided his success. While he’s throwing nearly 90% knuckleballs and 10% fastballs, his ability to change speeds with the knuckler makes it seem like he’s actually a 4-pitch pitcher.*

* Plus, I recall Dickey often throwing a knuckler that moved like a slider with the Twins, and there are some people on FanGraphs that claim that he’s learned how to throw a knuckleball that “rises,” or perhaps more accurately, doesn’t drop as much as a spinless ball normally would.

I’m not bitter that Dickey’s enjoyed this level of success after leaving the Twins. Honestly, with only being good for half a season, releasing him seemed like a solid decision. I’m just content to just sit back and watch Dickey keep floating his butterfly ball past hitters.

Coming in to the 2012 season, it seemed like Alex Burnett had no shot of making the roster. A 6.97 ERA and over two baserunners per inning was not indicative of a pitcher worthy of a place in any team's bullpen, but due to the injuries to Joel Zumaya, Scott Baker, Kyle Waldrop, and Jason Marquis' daughter, Burnett found himself in the exact same place as he had been the past two years: on the Twins' Opening Day roster.

Now, you can't take away very much from spring training statistics, but Burnett hadn't done much in the past two seasons that showed anything different. A career 5.40 ERA in nearly 100 innings coming into this year, with nearly 1 1/2 baserunners per inning was suggesting that Burnett was simply overmatched against major league hitters. Considering his track record in the minors upon becoming a reliever, this was very disappointing to see.

However, Burnett appears to have finally figured it out, as he has yet to give up a run this season in 8 1/3 innings. Additionally, he has walked only one batter thus far, and his WHIP is down to a sparkling 1.08. Dick Bremer and Bert Blyleven were quick to point out that Burnett has been featuring a curveball more often this year, though they erroneously stated that it was a new pitch for him.

In actuality, it's something he's always had in the majors, but his usage of it has changed. In the past two years, Burnett threw his curveball only about 7% of the time. This season, he's more than doubled it, as it's up to 15.5%. Granted, FanGraphs' Pitch Values says that it's been a terrible pitch (already worth -5.77 runs) but as viewers on TV can attest, this pitch has a lot of movement. Also, it's very possible that this pitch has allowed Burnett to set up his fastball and slider, pitches that have rated as average for him in his career.

One of the biggest changes for Burnett has been his control. In his first two seasons, he walked about 4 batters per 9 innings, but in his 6 appearances this year, he's walked only one batter. I'm not going to credit Burnett's curveball as helping him improve his control, but like I said before, perhaps throwing it more often has helped set up his other pitches.

It's still too early to say that Burnett will be a factor in the 'pen for the rest of the season, but at least right now, he's given us a glimpse of the pitcher he was supposed to be when he made his debut back in 2010.

Two weeks ago, I had a post where I guessed the probabilities of four non-roster invitees successfully making the Twins’ Opening Day roster. At the very bottom was “savior” Brian Dozier, stating that his probability was an F. No chance. Nada.

Well, it looks like one of the Twins brass doesn’t agree. General Manager Terry Ryan stated that the recent demotion of Tsuyoshi Nishioka “has nothing to do with Dozier,” but that could easily be interpreted to mean “Nishioka’s only shot of starting the season with us was as a utility infielder, and Dozier’s not going to fill that role for us.”

There seems to be some rumblings that Dozier is not guaranteed of being sent to the minor leagues, as I first thought. For one, he’s now survived two sets of cuts from spring training, despite the fact that he’s never seen any action in Triple-A.* Two, even with the offseason signing of Jamey Carroll to play shortstop, there’s still a way to fit Dozier into the picture.

* Though the same can be said of Joe Benson and Chris Parmelee, and neither of them are likely to be on the major league roster at the beginning of the season, either.

Carroll and projected starting second baseman Alexi Casilla both have the ability to play the middle infield positions. The same is true for Dozier, though there are some questions on his range at shortstop. Additionally, the removal of Nishioka means the Twins do not have a really good backup infield option for the bench. It could be Luke Hughes, but the Twins won’t put him at shortstop unless it’s an emergency. It might be Trevor Plouffe, but the Twins appear to want him to become a full-time outfielder.

Out of Carroll, Casilla, and Dozier, it’s clear that Dozier will not be the utility infielder. While I won’t place him on a pedestal like Tom Powers, I do think he has a chance of being a Danny Valencia-esque player at shortstop (read: someone that won’t be a star, but can hold down the fort, possibly all the way through his arbitration years). However, Carroll and Casilla are good fits for this role. Certainly Carroll isn’t preferable because of his contract, but that’s been his role for his whole career. Meanwhile, Casilla is the cheaper option, and I don’t think anyone could really argue that moving him to backing up the infield will hurt the team.

This means that we have several possibilities that could play out if Dozier indeed breaks camp with the major league club. He could be the starting shortstop, with either Casilla or Carroll manning second while the other is on the bench, or Dozier is at second base with the same arrangement for Carroll at shortstop and Casilla on the bench or vice-versa. If this was to happen, I’d hope for Dozier to be at shortstop (provided his defense has been proven to be adequate) with Carroll at second base.

But will this happen? I still think no. Just like with Parmelee and Benson, I feel that Dozier is destined for Triple-A. The Twins may be talking him up right now, but his lack of experience above Double-A is a red flag right now. Sure, there have been people promoted directly to the big leagues from Double-A that stuck, but those are typically top prospects, not fringe guys like Dozier. While there may be hints from the front office that he has a chance of joining the Twins in Baltimore to kick off the season, I still feel it won’t happen. That F that I gave him two weeks ago is going to stick.

When a team is successful, deciding on roster spots shouldn't be much of a chore. The stars have their spots guaranteed, the role players have already been identified, and there's maybe there's one player that has a chance at sneaking in.

Last season, the Twins were anything but successful as they lost 99 games. While the departures of Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, and Joe Nathan were eventually filled by the signings of Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit, and Joel Zumaya (who is now out with a torn UCL), just about everyone on the roster struggled, which meant that plenty of roster battles would be brewing this spring. Sure enough, the Twins invited 66 players to spring training this year, showing that the coaching staff wants to get a good look at plenty of players.

Below I've highlighted four non-roster invitees that Twins fans are, or should be enamored with this spring. I know it's early, but I'm willing to bet we already know their likelihood of making the Opening Day roster. Keep in mind that right now, there will be only one 40-man roster spot available once Joel Zumaya is placed on the 60-day DL, unless someone else is removed, *cough* Jeff Gray.

J.R. Towles - B-

Is there really any way that Towles ​doesn't​ make the roster in lieu of Drew Butera? I get the feeling that as long as Towles shows that he's capable defensively and can hit better than Butera, the third catcher's spot on the 25-man roster is his. I mean, there are people within the Twins organization that are openly (albeit anonymously) hoping that he does beat out Butera.

It's too bad because Butera's a great guy, but baseball is a business and you succeed with players that give you the best chance to win, not with good people that try hard. Even though Towles' major league career has been only marginally better than Butera's, at least his minor league numbers suggest he could be an asset if he figures everything out. It really should not be hard to beat out Butera unless the Twins are convinced that his defense is so good that it outweighs the hitters' difference in potential offensive firepower.

Note: By the way, while typing up this review, I've changed Towles' grade from a B+ to a B to a B-. I think it's showing that even though he has a good chance of making it, I feel that the Twins are so irrationally in love with Butera's defense that it will take a good effort to displace him. I guess my optimism of Towles overtaking Butera has waned with each passing minute.

Jared Burton - C+

I've been pairing Burton with fellow NRI pitcher Jason Bulger, but the difference between them is that Burton's actually had success in the majors whereas Bulger has had one decent year.* Burton's kind of followed the Joel Zumaya track of pitching, where he burst onto the scene as a good setup reliever in his first two seasons, only to have the last couple seasons ruined by injuries.

* The same year Jason Kubel hit a grand slam home run off of him to complete the cycle. Just an odd tidbit I had to share.

Possessing a good cutter and a "split-change," (his description of the pitch), Burton's chances of making the Opening Day roster increased when Zumaya was diagnosed with his torn UCL. However, by my count he's also competing with about 10 other pitchers for two or three bullpen spots.

Here's who I think is guaranteed of being in the Opening Day 'pen: Matt Capps, Glen Perkins, Brian Duensing, Anthony Swarzak, Alex Burnett

Here's who I think has a realistic chance for those two remaining spots: Terry Doyle, Jeff Gray, Matt Maloney, Jeff Manship, Lester Oliveros, Kyle Waldrop, Jared Burton, Jason Bulger, Phil Dumatrait, Esmerling Vasquez, Carlos Gutierrez

That's a lot of guys to compete against, so while I do think Burton has a good chance of making it, I could also easily see some combination of Doyle, Oliveros, and Waldrop winning those last two spots instead.

Sean Burroughs - D-

Look, his comeback story is great, but I just don't think Burroughs has what it takes to earn a bench spot. There was early talk about him challenging Danny Valencia for the starting third base job, but Valencia has quickly earned positive reviews on his improved defense. Burroughs doesn't feature much power, and really his only upside would be as a pinch-hitter and backup at third base. But then you have to realize that the bench will already have a catcher, Trevor Plouffe and Luke Hughes (both out of options), and either Tsuyoshi Nishioka or Rene Tosoni. If he accepts a minor league assignment, I could see him being called up at some point this season if/when injuries strike, but I just don't think he has what it takes to crack the Opening Day roster.

Brian Dozier - F

Dozier is probably the guy most casual Twins fans are familiar with because he was in the Twins system last season and Gardy was calling for him to be promoted, but there's just not any room for him. Jamey Carroll was signed to be the starting shortstop, and Dozier would only be in the major leagues if he would have regular playing time. Even then, you have to imagine that Alexi Casilla would be ahead of him on the depth chart, especially since Dozier has no experience above Double-A. Barring injury, the BullDozier will be in the majors at some point this year, but it won't be on April 6th.

I’m going to get this out of the way immediately. I think Ryan Braun is still guilty. I also think that he was lucky, and he and his representatives brilliantly found a way to argue that the chain of custody was broken when it came to the handling of his sample.


But most of all, I don’t even care. That’s right, I think Braun is guilty, but I also don’t even care. What I care about is the reactions to Braun’s appeal being upheld. There are many people out there that feel that Braun getting off this easily is a joke. There are also people that are upset that Manny Ramirez, twice found to have taken a banned substance, has a job while Johnny Damon is still looking for one (never mind that the two have completely different contract demands). There’s Jeff Bagwell, who has never been caught using steroids, but he’s suspected of using them and therefore cannot be a Hall of Famer. There’s Mark McGwire, who did admit to using steroids, but we’re still pissed at him.



But have you heard of Josh Lueke? Unless you’re a hardcore fan that’s out to know every single player in the major leagues, you probably don’t. Well, our buddy Lueke allegedly raped and sodomized a woman back in 2008 while he was in the Texas Rangers minor league system. Lueke eventually pleaded no contest to a lesser charge of false imprisonment with violence and was sentenced to 40 days in jail. The Rangers did suspend Lueke but eventually reinstated him, and he was then traded to the Seattle Mariners. Upon learning of his past, the Mariners attempted to return him back to the Rangers, but the two teams could not agree on an alternate player so Lueke stuck in Seattle. He was then traded this offseason to Tampa Bay for catcher John Jaso and will compete for a spot in the Rays’ bullpen this season.


This story is what I care about. Now, I’ll admit that Lueke is clearly a lesser-known player than Braun, and we’re pushing about 2 1/2 years since Lueke was first charged, but how is this fair? Both will live the rest of their careers with a cloud over their heads, but I’m willing to bet that Braun’s will be a bigger deal. I don’t know if it’s because TV shows have desensitized us to rape and assault, but this is wrong that Lueke broke a law and appears to have moved on, whereas it’s likely that Braun, should he ever be a possibility for the Hall of Fame, will have to fight this ruling for the rest of his life.


Let’s bring this a little closer to home. The Minnesota Vikings had two players this past season that had some significant issues. With the brief NFL lockout, offensive tackle Bryant McKinnie failed to stay in shape and arrived to training camp approaching 400 lbs. During the season, cornerback Chris Cook was charged with felony domestic assault after attempting to strangle his girlfriend. McKinnie ended up getting cut from the team, while Cook was merely suspended for the season with pay. By the way, McKinnie ended up signing with the Baltimore Ravens, got in shape, and played in all 16 games for the Ravens last season, making it seem like the Vikings overreacted to his large waistline.


Show up overweight, you’ve failed your coach and your teammates and you’re sent packing. Attack another person, and you keep your job.


What I want is for sports to stop acting like using PEDs is the biggest crime you can possibly commit. When you do that, you’re really only harming yourself, and there’s not even substantial evidence that all steroids make you a better player. Yet if you have a DUI or are charged with a violent crime, you’re risking someone else’s life. That should be treated as being a much bigger deal, but it isn’t. Typically the sport lets the state judicial system handle the punishment, but they shouldn’t be afraid to step in themselves more often, even if the player’s union files a grievance. If a Twins player was caught driving drunk, I’d want him to be suspended to send a message to everyone else on the team, “This is not okay.” But that’s never going to happen, because that will never be as big of a travesty as doping, and that’s a damn shame.


Break MLB’s laws, and you’ve cheated the game. Break the nation’s laws, and once you’ve served your time, all is well again. Damn, that makes a ton of sense.

The Background

I was perusing Twitter earlier today when I saw this tweet from our very own MLB Fan Cave finalist Lindsay Guentzel, complete with a video.

I watched said video, even though I've become a bit tired of the "Sh*t (This group of people) Say" meme, and in between a couple of laughs, I noticed a few attractive women in the video (Lindsay in a bathrobe may or may not have been one of them). Thus, I went over to the MLB Fan Cave site to get to know these women a little better. Wow, that doesn't sound creepy at all!

I happened to find Megan Washington, which the website tabbed as a supporter of the Tampa Bay Rays. I clicked on her video and enjoyed the eye candy I was watching until I heard a phrase that jolted me out of my fanboy daydream.

"Now, I deserve to be in the MLB Fan Cave for the 2012 season because I'm obviously a really big baseball fan, especially of the Rays and the Yankees."

Please click this link and then click the ensuing button on the website that appears to fully understand my disappointment.

You see, there are two baseball teams that I absolutely hate. First is the sin that Megan has committed, and that's being a supporter of the Yankees. The second team is the White Sox, though that's probably just due to Hawk Harrelson and 2008's Game 163. I feel that if I was single and I was interested in a girl, it would be a deal-breaker if she told me that she was a fan of either of these two teams. Seriously though, it's rather humorous that I was so disappointed, due to a multitude of reasons:

1. I already have a girlfriend and am more than happy with her, even though I sometimes ask for baseball relationship advice.
2. I'm most likely never going to meet Megan Washington.
3. Even if I was to meet her, there's no guarantee that she would be able to handle a person as suave, manly, irresistible, and humble as myself.

The Question

I tweeted my dismay over this fact, and I was pleased to see I wasn't as shallow as I believed as I was greeted with many tweets from people expressing their list of teams that would cause them to cut off a relationship. As a result (and also from some prodding by K-Bro) I decided to crowdsource this question: Which team(s) would a man/woman have to be a fan of for you to consider it a deal-breaker? Don't feel restricted by the sport of baseball. If you feel the need to share your distaste for the Packers, go right ahead. Note that Team Edward and Team Jacob are not viable options. Leave your choices in the comments below, and let's see which team is so hated that it would actually stop you from dating one of their fans.

Since the first season at Target Field in 2010, there’s been a common complaint among hitters: the fences are too far away. We’ve seen and heard of players attempting to pull the ball down the lines because that’s the best way to get the ball out of the park. These pictures of home runs at Target Field confirms this belief (from Hit Tracker Online).

Target Field Home Runs 2011

Target Field Home Runs 2010

You may have some questions about these pictures. Why is there a percentage in the upper right corner of each picture? Why are those lines there? Why are the areas not even?

Look at the TF 2011 picture. You’ll notice that most home runs are contained within the right and left field portions of the field. I will admit that these lines are completely drawn arbitrarily, and it certainly is odd that I made one side bigger than the other. For that, I’ll point towards the fences at Target Field. You know that the right field fence is taller than the left field fence, and that (along with wind currents, or Baseball Gods, or something) have managed to cause fewer balls to go out in the RF alley compared to the LF alley. Anyway, despite the unevenness, a nice coincidence is that this area sums to an angle of 45%, or half of a baseball field.

Now, another complaint you may have is that obviously it will be easier to hit the ball out down the lines than to straightaway center field. This is why I’ve included the percentages in the upper right. These represent the percentage of home runs that were hit into the outer two areas last season. As you can see, both are 77% (2011 should actually be 78%, and 2010′s rounded up to 77%, so it was not actually equal each season). For comparison, I’ve included a more homer-friendly park in Chicago’s U.S. Cellular Field, and also the Metrodome in 2009.

U.S. Cellular Field 2011

Metrodome 2009

I’ll admit that 73% doesn’t seem all that different from 77%, but maybe the players are able to take more notice than we can. However, there’s no denying the difference between the Dome and Target Field. Not only were there more homers hit in 2009, but they were also sent out more frequently to center field and the alleys, as only 66% of all home runs were hit into the left field and right field areas.

Players started getting it into their minds that they had to pull the ball to get it out of the park (except Jim Thome), and it started affecting their hitting. With this in the back of my head, I’m wondering if the Twins haven’t adopted a new philosophy when it comes to hitting.

You may be familiar with “Whitey-ball,” dubbed for Whitey Herzog, manager of the St. Louis Cardinals in the 1980s. His team relied on speed, defense, and hitting line drives to take advantage of the AstroTurf in Busch Memorial Stadium, and Whitey-ball was credited with helping the team win the 1982 World Series. Starting with last season, it appears as though the Twins have adopted a similar mindset. This started with the trade of J.J. Hardy prior to last season, where the Twins cited a need to add speed to the lineup. From last season and this offseason, they lost Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, and Jim Thome, three big home run hitters, and really only have Josh Willingham has a viable power replacement.

It’s Whitey-ball, or perhaps more appropriately the return of Gardy-ball. Back in the Dome days, Gardy-ball was essentially the mirror image of Whitey-ball. But now, it’s being done for a whole different reason. Over the past two seasons, hitters have been altering their swings to hit the ball out. With this current lineup, it’s as if the Twins have assembled a group of slap hitters and are going to tell them, “Don’t even attempt to beat the system.”

The Twins are likely going to be having these guys hitting in order next season: Alexi Casilla (8th), Ben Revere (9th), Denard Span (1st), Jamey Carroll (2nd). Those guys certainly are not going to get many people excited, as evidenced by Patrick Reusse and my response to him over a week ago.

It is indeed like a relay team of leadoff hitters, none of which are going to challenge 10 homers this season, so maybe it’s not necessarily “Don’t even attempt to beat the system,” but rather “Don’t even attempt to beat the system (it’s not like you have a chance in the first place).” In fact, that’s almost exactly what Twins hitting coach Joe Vavra said in an interview with the Pioneer Press:

“We have to stop thinking we can beat that ballpark.”

It sounds like Vavra wants to get the hitters back into spraying the ball around the field instead of trying to yank everything over the pull-side fence. If the hitters listen, this could be a chance to get the Twins to return to the middle of the pack when it comes to scoring runs, instead of being stuck at the bottom like they were last year.

However, I must agree with Parker Hageman here in that the Twins shouldn’t mess with Josh Willingham. Parker has shown us that Willingham is already a pull hitter that appears to have a good chance of succeeding in Target Field, and if the Twins try to get him to chance his approach, we could have a repeat of David Ortiz on our hands.

Basically, what I’m trying to say is that it looks like the Twins are going to try to pound it into the hitters’ heads that they shouldn’t treat home runs as their only positive result. If the pitch is inside, then feel free to yank it down the line. But if it’s on the outside, remember that hitting it up the middle or to the opposite field is going to be more likely to yield a better result than trying to yank that pitch as well. You know how Joe Mauer grounds out to second base so often? It can usually be attributed to him attempting to pull a pitch that was on the outer half of the plate.

The Twins don’t project to compete for a playoff spot this season, but working on improving the offense simply by attacking the ballpark in a different way should help the team score more runs this season.