The Twins and Vikings. Both considered down and out for the considerable future after a 3-13 2011/2012 and a 99-loss season in 2011. Unfortunately for the Twins, the Vikings have come storming back after last season and now sit one win away from joining the playoffs. The Twins, on the other hand, again just avoided a 100-loss season. In several ways, this makes the Twins' life much more difficult in several ways.

1. Success of rookies and vets together. Something that the Vikings have going for them this year is that they have a solid group of rookies (several of whom are going to be very disappointed if they don't make the Pro Bowl) and vets who have combined for one of the greater turnarounds a team that doesn't have RG3 or Andrew Luck could have imagined. While the Twins may have a rookie or two (or more) on the 25-man roster this year, it takes them a while to get used to 162 games of Big-League pitching. This is a category the Twins desperately need to get together if they have any hope of competing this year.

2. Success of rookies. Rookies Harrison Smith, Blair Walsh, Matt Kalil, and Jarius Wright have all had hands in pushing the Vikings to this season right after just being in college. Their successful transition into the Vikings game plan has made their team by and large a team that can succeed in the playoffs. What doesn't go the Twins' way in this category is that players, even ones coming out of college as seniors have to start in the Minors, even if they are the best. They then have to stay there (sometimes for not very long) and things happen to them. They get hurt, they have bad years, and some fall to the wayside.

3. Success of the Draft. It is fairly easy to tell whether your players impact your team right away in the NFL. If they are on your 53-man roster and play regularly, they can have a huge impact on your team from the first game they play. While you do have to wait to judge the draft long-term for a while (no duh), the fact that they play right away gives their team an advantage, at least in the short run. The Twins and the rest of the MLB have to wait and watch their prospects climb the ladder, hoping that nothing happens to them on the way and that they are successful in helping their team out. It is impossible to judge the MLB draft short-term because no prospects are allowed to start in the Majors anymore, and that's why GM's like Billy Beane dub the draft a crap shoot.

4. Free-Agent attraction. The Twins, coming off of two 90+ loss seasons in a row, isn't a great place for FA's to go (unless they are trying to re-establish their value), especially with their well-earned reputation of not shelling out big bucks where FA's are concerned (Willingham is a wonderful exception to this rule.) The price of FA's in the MLB is also rapidly rising, making small-market teams like the Twins have to rely more and more on the draft and international signings to keep themselves going. The Vikings have been slightly better at attracting FA's, but with the promotion of Spielman to GM, will probably be relying more on the draft to supply them with fresh talent, and rightfully so. However, if they really wanted to make their team better in an instant with the right FA signing, with the spending cap that is imposed, they statistically have a much better chance of being able to get FA's because teams can't pay mega-bucks for them.

FA's are also much more interested in going to a team if they have shown recent success. 90+ losses: not attractive in the slightest. Going from 3 wins to 9+ in one season and having the base players to repeat such success makes that team much more attractive to FA's.

And now for my point. The Vikings, with their success in the draft showing on the field, and with their playoff (yes, playoff) hopes either being fulfilled or dashed next Sunday, have risen the bar for the Twins. Their turnaround from 3-13 and a Top 3 pick (until they traded it) to either 9-7 or 10-6 will make Twins fans, including myself, wishing for the kind of turnaround for the Twins that the Vikings have had this year, and unless nearly everyone on the roster has above-average years, I don't see it happening this year.

Now before I go, I want to make my prediction for the rest of the football season. The Vikes win next week, 31-24, face the Packers again in the Division series, win there, beat the 49ers who are the 2 seed, then face Atlanta in the NFCCG, beat them there, avenging their loss all those years ago by having Walsh kick the game-winning field goal, then beat Denver in the Super Bowl with AP running in the winning touchdown to prove that he should be the MVP and Comeback Player of the Year. (I better not get nasty messages about this, this is completely guessing (and most likely my guessing incorrectly and quite deludedly)). SKOL VIKES!

I am a big Colabello fan. When the Twins picked him up from the Independent League, I was intrigued. His IL numbers were very, very solid. When he came to the Twins organization, he did really, really well against competition that in my personal opinion is much tougher than in the IL. And in nearly 40 more games that he was used to playing, he drove in nearly 100 runs with 19 HR's. His BA and OBP were the lowest of his career this year, making me think that he will improve in them next year. He is also raking down in the Mexican Winter League.

Now, for the real reason I am writing this blog. I believe that if the Twins trade Justin Morneau mid-season, they should give serious consideration to bring Mr. Colabello up from whatever level he is at this year. I say this partly because as he is a righty, his power numbers are likely to go up in a field that is friendly to righties more than lefties like J-Mo. I also believe that he could adjust to the Majors and be a good 1B player. This would add a fairly powerful righty bat to the lineup while keeping Parmelee's bat in the lineup as well, albeit in RF and detracting from our defense. In a lineup that is lacking power from the right side aside from Willingham (and Plouffe when he is on his game), a guy who can drive in runs and hit HR's like Colabello can could be a real asset to the Twins.

For too long, the East has been known as the power division in the AL. Everyone knows that the Central is a "weak" division, and has really had a hard time in the playoffs. There were usually two playoff teams to come out of the divison (for the last decade, the Yanks and Sox), and they had a good time of it. Going back to 2000, the AL has won the World Series six times. Of those six times, four of them came from the AL East, and they were the Yanks (twice) and the Sox (twice). This string of success is now being challenged by a newly powerful AL Division, the West.

I say this because there were two teams that were expected to (and by expected to I mean somehow play the World Series against each other) make the playoffs from this division, and only one of the two that was expected to made it in.

The Angels, with offseason acquisitions in Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson, were suddenly considered World Series candidates after their acquisition of those two. They "disappointingly" won "only" 89 games (still more than the Central Divison Champs Tigers), and missed the playoffs.

The Mariners, not really ever considered for the playoff picture, dealt the face of their franchise, Ichiro, to the Yankees, which has worked out better for the Yankees than the last trade these two teams made (see Michael Pineda), and they won 75 games, more than the Royals, Twins, and Cleveland.

The Rangers, who also became even bigger (if it is even possible) candidates to go to the World Series for the third straight year after they signed Yu Darvish out of Japan. After a season filled with injuries to key players (especially in their pitching staff) and the impending free agency of Josh Hamilton, the Rangers collapsed down the stretch, winning just 3 of their last 10 games. They fell to the Wild Card and were eliminated by the scrappy-as-hell Baltimore Orioles.

The Oakland A's were never expected to contend in this division. Picked to finish 3rd or 4th by nearly everybody, they had one of their Moneyball-esqe second halfs (with the best record since June 30, I believe, but don't quote me on that) and defeated the Rangers in the race for the AL West Division crown. They did this despite having suspensions and injuries to key pitchers, one of the worst batting averages in the game, and ending the year with an all-rookie pitching staff. They are currently down 2-0 in the ALDS to the Tigers, but never count the A's out. They have been coming back from worse all season long.

While the Yankees may have the best record in the AL, the fact that every team in the West won 75+ games is just astounding. Move over AL East, here comes the West.

Here is my last blog about the playoffs series', at least until the 1-game wild cards are done tomorrow.

The Rangers, who looked like the strongest team in the West (and probably in the AL) for most of the season, got a rude awakening when the Oakland A's slipped by them to claim the AL West Championship, which leaves them to deal with the Orioles, who are a Cinderella team in their own right. Playing in one of the stronger divisions in the AL, and one of the strongest in the Majors, the Orioles really hung with the Yanks through the whole season, only losing the chance to possibly claim the division title on the second-to-last day of the season.

vs.

Offense:
Everyone knows about the Rangers offense. Hamilton was challenging Miggy for the HR title with three to play, Beltre was solid for most of the season, and everybody was contributing. In 7 games between the two clubs, the Orioles went 2-5 and was outscored 56-24. Yeah, so it was either the hitting cranking on the pitching, or...I don't even know. So, just because of that, the Rangers are (in my book anyway) kinda expected to jump all over the Orioles, especially with the Rangers looking to avenge the last two years' depressing endings. In the stat department, the Rangers this year have Beltre, Hamilton, Cruz, and Napoli, all of whom have hit over 20 HR, with Beltre hitting 30+ and Hamilton 40+. While that is impressive, the Orioles also have big boppers, as they had five players this year get over 20 HR: Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Mark Reynolds, Matt Weiters, and J.J. Hardy, with Davis and Jones both hitting 30+.

The Rangers have absolutely abused Orioles pitching this year, and I don't see this as not continuing tomorrow, as the Rangers cling to their hopes of reaching their third straight World Series
Advantage: Rangers

Defense:
Despite the recent, and somewhat inexplicable, play of Josh Hamilton in center field (contract pressure getting to him?), the Rangers have a really good fielding team (why wouldn't they, with Wash as their head coach.) They are in the top 5 in fielding percentage, have committed the 4th fewest errors in all baseball (85), are fairly middle of the pack in SB allowed, are near the bottom in catching runners stealing, are 5th highest in SB%, and are middle of the pack again in passed balls and wild pitches. The Orioles, never really known as a defense-first team, are in the bottom third in fielding percentage, are in the top 1/2 in errors, are 3rd to last in SB allowed and stolen base % (mostly because of Weiters behind the plate) but somehow are in the bottom half in caught stealings.

The Orioles don't have people steal on them much, but when they do, they are really good at cutting them down as they have one of the better catchers in the AL on their team. The Rangers have a much better fielding team overall (Beltre, Hamilton, and even Cruz are perennial contenders for gold gloves) and have Ron Washington, a former infielder in the Bigs, as their manager.
Advantage: Rangers

Pitching:
This has been a bit of a shaky spot for Wash's crew this year. Their Japanese import, Darvish, has been shaky all year, but has come on late. Colby Lewis and Neftali Feliz both have had Tommy John and are out for all of this year and probably part, if not all, of next year. Still, they have gotten good pitching from other sources. Their trade for Ryan Dempster, while initially seemed shaky, has turned into a good one. Matt Harrison, Darvish, and Holland lead the team in starts and wins, so they have survived with a moderately good bullpen. The Orioles, on the other hand, have what is probably the shakiest rotation in the postseason, even shakier than the A's almost-all rookie rotation. They have exactly one pitcher who has more than 10 wins (Wei-Yin Chen, at 12). They have three starters who have started more than 10 games with an ERA under 4. Their bullpen is their saving grace. They have very few pitchers in there who have an ERA over 3.50, and their relief staff has accounted for over 30 wins.

Both teams have had their troubles with their starting staff, but the Rangers have just had better years from more pitchers
Advantage: Rangers

Overall:
The Rangers are really the clear bet to take in this game, but don't count out the Orioles. Despite playing in a very tough division, they found a way to win enough games just to get here.

Prediction: Rangers win an unexpected pitchers duel and move on to face the Yanks in Arlington.

Here are the posts to my previous predictions of the set matchups in this year's playoffs:
Braves vs. Cards: http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1987-Playoffs-pt-2
Giants vs. Reds: http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1975-Playoffs-pt-1
Tigers vs. A's: http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1989-Playoffs-pt-3

P.S. Don't take these predictions as what is going to happen. This is just what I, a baseball fan at heart, believe what will happen. Any money you may bet and lose as a result of these posts is your own fault. If you want an expert's opinion on what they opine is going to happen, hop over to ESPN.com with an Insider's pass to read to your heart's content.

Now, to the AL. The final day of the AL was quite a wild one, with all the scenarios that could have played out, but it never really turned into an epic turn-everything-on-its head Day 162 as last year.

The day left the A's (what the heck?) on top of the AL West, the Rangers falling to the one-game playoff between the Wild Cards, the Yankees obliterating the Red Sox in Bobby V's last game there to clinch the East, and the Orioles going VERY quietly against the Rays to claim the second wild-card spot.

I will start with the upcoming divisional series match-up between the A's and Tigers. During the regular season, the Tigers won the season series between the two, 4-3, but the A's have home-field advantage because they won 6 more games than the Tigers.

vs.

Offense:
Again, there is a player (this time on the Tigers) that makes me want to give this category right to that team (that player being Miggy). Just saying, if you earn the Triple Crown, you are getting some respect out of this Twins fan (for the first and only time ever). And again, that would be ignoring the statistical side of things. As I just mentioned, the Tigers have one of the best players in the Majors on their team, and his name is Miggy (I just refuse to call him by his real name for no reason apparent to me.) Now, since the All-Star Break, the Tigers are hitting .267 with 81 HR, 330 RBI's, over 500 K's, 263 BB's, and an OPS of .763. The Athletics, however have hit a mere .252, but with 112 HR (which leads the Majors), 374 RBI's, 704 K's, 255 BB's, and an OPS of .765. The Oakland A's lead the Majors in two very distinct categories since the Break, one good (leaders in HR hit) and one not so good (704 K's, as part of a season where they broke the record for K's in a season by one team, if I am not mistaken).

Miggy is leading the charge for the Tigers, and with Fielder at his side, those two have the firepower to take over the series. The A's, though, have gotten key support from unlikely sources all season, and they will look for the same unknowns to keep their offensive attack going.
Advantage: Leaning Tigers (ducks)

Defensive:
Here is where I knew the Tigers would have trouble with having Fielder and Cabrera in the same infield (unfortunately, not enough to keep them out of the playoffs), and I was right (mostly). Somehow, the Twins actually have a higher fielding percentage than the A's, and the same fielding percentage as the Tigers, which is not a good sign if you're a playoff team and there are teams who are losing 90+ games who are fielding as well as or better than you are. The Tigers could have a problem against the A's, as their catchers are giving up a steal percentage just south of .750 (A's are around .690), and the A's, when they have been given the green light, they get the stolen base nearly 80% of the time. Yikes! The A's have also given up fewer passed balls and wild pitches than the Tigers, and those two can be killer in the postseason where every base counts

I am looking at this to be the time where the Tiger's fielding deficiencies finally catch up to their abilities on offense.
Advantage: A's, most certainly.

Pitching:
Ah, pitching, the Achilles heel of so many teams. The A's have had even more turnover in their pitching staff than the Twins had this year, but it doesn't seem to have slowed them down a bit. If nothing has changed since a few days ago, I believe that the A's will be the first team ever to go into the playoffs with an all-rookie pitching staff. Quite the first season, eh? The Tigers, on the other hand, have had somewhat more success, mostly because of two pitchers, the AL K leader for most of the season, and Justin Verlander (didn't see that one coming? Neither did I.) The Tigers have been blessed with the top 2 pitchers in K's this year, Verlander and Max Scherzer, who for IP/K ratio kicks Verlander's butt up and down Motor City (Scherzer has thrown over 50 innings less than Verlander and has only 8 fewer K's). This 1-2 combo in K's leads the Tigers starters to an ERA advantage over the A's by about .04 points.

Statistically, the Tigers starters have a 63-51 record with a 3.76 ERA in just under 1000 innings, have given up 99 HR, have K'd exactly 900, walked just 263, have a BAA of .260, and a WHIP of 1.28. Their relievers are just about the same. They have a 25-23 record, with an ERA of 3.79 with just under 460 IP, have given up 47 HR (yikes!), have K'd 433, have a BAA of .249, and a WHIP of 1.31.
The A's have been just as good, if not even better. Their starters come into the postseason with a record of 64-54, with an ERA of exactly 3.80 in 958 innings, have given up 102 HR, have K'd 667, walked only 253 (league leaders), have a BAA of .264, and a WHIP of 1.28. Their relievers have been among the best in the game, considering. They have a record of 30-14, a miniscule 2.94 ERA (second behind the Rays, who else?), have thrown 512 innings, have given up 45 HR's, have K'd 469, walked 209, have a BAA of .209 (second behind the Rays again), and have a WHIP of 1.17 (second, again to the Rays.)

The Tigers have the "name" advantage in that they have Verlander and other "established" veterans on their squad, where the A's are relying on rookies and veterans who have been playing out of their minds, especially in the bullpen.
Advantage: A's

Overall:
The Tigers have a slight, but definite advantage in the hitting department, and their strikeout pitchers should have a field day with the A's' strikeout-prone lineup, but the A's pitching staff is playing like established vets all, and the fact that they don't have to deal with Miggy and Fielder in the corners is a definate plus in the defense game

Prediction: A's in 5. Long and hard, this series will last all five games, but the A's 'pen will outlast the Tigers and give the A's a series victory.

Here are the links to my first two playoff predictions, with another one on the way, with the rest to follow as each series concludes:
Braves vs. Cardinals: http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1987-Playoffs-pt-2
Reds vs. Giants: http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1975-Playoffs-pt-1

With all the craziness that has surrounded the final day of regular season baseball this year, I thought it would be smart to wait to post the rest of these until I was sure of the matchups.

I will now begin a rapid-fire posting over the next day to cover all of the first playoff matchups, and doing new ones when the series advances to the next round.

In this my second post, I will continue with the NL and look at the match-up between the Cardinals and Braves in the NL wild-card playoff matchup.


vs.


Offense:
I might be tempted to give this category to the Braves just because Chipper Jones is in his final playing season of baseball. Unfortunately, that would overlook the abysmal 2nd half the Braves are having offensively. Since the All- Star Break, they are hitting a dismal .234, with 65 HR, 288 RBI's, and an OPS of .683. Yeah, not so good in the second half. The Cards have been doing much better since the half-way point of the season, hitting at a.268 clip, with 63 HR, 322 RBI's, and an OPS of .740.

Going by the second half stats, which are more likely from my point of view to be the stats that mirror the stats in the postseason, I would say that the Cards have had a much more solid second-half than the Braves have, offensively anyway.
Advantage: Cardinals

Defense:
I would say that these two teams defensively are probably the closest any two teams in the playoffs this year can be. While the Braves are ahead in FP, .986 to .983 due mostly to committing 21 fewer errors than the Cardinals, the Cardinals have turned more double plays, not to mention have Yadier Molina behind the plate, which leads them to give up nearly 16% fewer stolen bases than the Braves, as well as the lead the Cardinals enjoy when passed balls and wild pitches are measured.

The Braves commit fewer errors than the Cardinals, but the Cardinal's backstop is a guy you don't want to cross if you are a base-stealer (and a good batterymate for pitchers). Very, very close between these two, but I will take the extra errors over the fewer WP's and passed balls
Advantage: Cardinals, but it is sooooo close.

Pitching:
These stats cover the whole season, and it is very clear from both the bullpen and starting staff who has the better pitching rotation. Let's begin with the two team's starters. The Braves's starters are 69-54 with a 3.75 ERA over 959 IP, with 106 HR given up, and a WHIP of 1.25. The Cards's starters are 71-47 with a 3.62 ERA over 989 IP, with 79 HR given up and a WHIP of 1.27.
Now to the relief corp for each team. The Braves' relievers are 25-14 with a 2.76 ERA over 486 IP, with 39 HR given up and a WHIP of 1.19. The Cards' relievers are 17-27 with a 3.90 ERA over 473 IP, with 55 HR given up and a WHIP of 1.27.

When it comes to starting pitching, I give the advantage easily to the Cardinals. The problem is, any bullpen in the playoffs has to be the best of the best, and the Cards' pen has been anything but this year, which could give them troubles in late-inning, high pressure situations if they don't have the right guy, and the fact that the Braves' bullpen has been as good as it has been gives me a good feeling about their pitching staff during their postseason run.
Advantage: Braves

Overall: This is a one-game match, so it is winner-take-all mano-a-mano slugfest. These two teams have this one game to prove their qualities to be better than the other

Prediction for this game: Braves win and Chipper has a hand in driving in the winning run to advance the Braves to the next round.

Here is the link over to my prediction for the Giants and Reds series:
http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1975-Playoffs-pt-1

While the Twins may not be in the Hunt for October legend-status, there are teams around the league that have clinched a playoff spot and are lining up their pitching according to who they will (or might) face in their first game (or series).

This will be a series of blogs about the different teams in the postseason, and how they rank up against everyone else (and especially against their first opponent, if that opponent is known yet.)

I will start with the National League, because their playoff bracket is more or less set, unless something amazing happens in regards to the Dodgers and Cardinals.

There is a divisional series already set in the National League, with Buster Posey and the Giants set to face Joey Votto and the Reds.

vs.
Offense:
Overall, the Giants and Reds are fairly similar in many stats. They have very similar OBP's, Slg %'s, and OPS's, as well as RBI's and walks. But while the Reds may lead in a few categories, like HR's and 2B, they are trailing the Giants by a long shot in 3B (not as big of a deal, considering how big the park the Giants play in "plays" in the gaps), BA (by over .015), SB, and have almost 200 more strikeouts than the Giants.

While the Red's offense is built around the home run, the Giants have a much more solid attack.
Advantage: Giants

Defense:
The difference in defense is a little bigger. Giants' catchers have allowed 50 more bags to be stolen under their watch and have had 20 more wild pitches get past them than Reds catchers; the Giants have committed 25 more errors than the Reds, which leads to a fielding percentage .004 lower than the Reds. The Giants, however, lead the Reds in double plays turned, in the number of runners they have caught stealing, number of passed balls, and in assists.

They are both average to above-average squads in fielding ability
Advantage: Tie

Pitching:
As well known as the Giants pitching staff is for having good numbers, the Reds actually have a lower ERA, have allowed fewer hits (again, only by two), have given up way fewer earned runs and runs overall, have walked fewer batters, have struck out more batters, have struck out more batters (only by 7) and have a lower WHIP rate than the Giants. The Giants lead the Reds in saves converted %, have throw fewer innings (only by 2 1/3), have given up fewer home runs, and has the same BAA as the Reds.

As well known as the Giant's vaunted pitching staff is, the Reds have surpassed their numbers in quite a few categories.
Advantage: Reds

Overall:
Both teams have great pitching staffs, field okay, and hit the ball well. But when it comes to postseason experience, I think the Giants outrank the Reds in this case.

Prediction for this series: Giants in 4

Here is what I am seeing for the Twins depth chart with the personnel they have now. I will do another one of these after the offseason ends to compare. These rankings are part stats from this year, part me wanting some of the people on this list to succeed. Also, with the pitching rotation, this is not how the Twins (at least, I hope it isn't) will organize their rotation, it is just the people I think should be in their rotation

Bullpen:
Should be some fairly obvious ones and maybe a few surprises in here.
1. Perkins
2. Burton
3. Slama
4. Duensing
5. Swarzak
6. Waldrop
7. Alex Burnett/Fien

Starting Rotation-Also, these are just guys the Twins have right now. I am not going to give a spot to someone they have not acquired yet.
1. Diamond
2. Baker
3. DeVries
4. Deduno
5. Walters/Vasquez (both of these guys need to show more)

Infielders-this includes catchers; Before Nishi on this list is Will Smith, Jon Stewart, and Steven Colbert
1. Mauer
2. Doumit
3. Carroll
4. Florimon
5. Parmelee
6. Plouffe
7. Butera
8. Morneau

Outfielders
1. Willingham
2. Span
3. Revere
4. Mastroianni
5. Carson
6. Arcia

Any player you don't see on this list I either forgot, or was thinking the Twins will release this offseason, or will not be a factor for most of next year.

The Twins have several needs this offseason. Pitching is the big one, getting a few MI's who can consistently hit is another. Also, don't expect me to analyze contracts, because that is currently beyond my limited baseball intellect, just FWI.

They currently have two-three big trade chips that they are willing to listen on: Willingham, Span, and Morneau. If they are to trade Morneau or Willingham, one team they should focus on is the Rays of Tampa. They have the pitching we need, we have the offense (and 1B/LF) that they would die for. While they (the Rays) have done a great job developing pitching, they could clearly use some offense, and I think Morneau could provide them with that. Span has been most consistently tied with the Nationals, who do need a CF'er/lead-off hitter, and kinda have the pitching we need, if they are willing to deal either one of their prospects or one of their starters (none of which are Strasburg.) Out of the three players on this list, I see Morneau and Span as the most likely to be dealt.


Now then, the rest of the team. While for a long time I haven't been a big fan of Nishioka, only recently have I decided that Nick Blackburn isn't major league worthy either, and I was really happy that they were demoted from the Bigs and cut from the 40-man roster.
So let's start with the starting pitching side of things.

I fully expect the Twins to trade one of Morneau and Span for SP. The question is is how good the pitcher is/will be. The problem for the Twins is that not only do they need one starting pitcher, I believe that they need at least one more that they can pick up in FA (but looking at the FA list on MLBTR, not seeing many guys under 32 on the list. Yikes). I believe that they will buy out Baker's option, and make at least a lukewarm attempt to sign him to a smaller deal to try and get him back on his feet. Another pitcher that I could see the Twins going after is a Brandon McCarthy/Edwin Jackson type (with McCarthy's somewhat low profile, I could see the Twins trying to acquire both of them; I think they will have the money to do so.)

I believe this is what the Twins rotation will look like in 2013:
1. Edwin Jackson? for sure a FA pitcher
2. Scott Diamond
3. Gibson/McCarthy
4. Scott Baker
5. Pedro Hernandez/AAAA guys stored down in AAA

On the relief pitching side, the Twins are a little more secure. They resigned Perkins to a multi-year deal, they have uncovered Jared Burton as a reliable set-up man, Alex Burnett is starting to show flashes of the talent that people have been expecting from a guy who has held a 25-man roster spot for the last several years, Fien hasn't been terrible, Capps has been all right when available, and Duensing, Swarzak and other guys have been all right in long-relief spot start roles. Unfortunately, Twins Territory has still been deprived of large doses of Anthony Slama. So, barring any major pickups over the trade wire/FA market, this is what I predict the 2013 bullpen to look like (assuming a 12-man pitching rotation, so 7 bullpen guys and in no particular order):

1. Glen Perkins
2. Jared Burton
3. Brian Duensing
4. Casey Fien
5. Slama
6. Swarzak
7. Guerra/Burnett

On to the Starting Lineup. With the assumed departures of Denard Span and Justin Morneau, I am assuming several things beyond that. One, Ben Revere becomes one of the best center fielders the Twins have ever had. Two, Parmelee would take over for Morneau at first. Three, their RF spot could be filled by guys like Arcia, Mastroianni (although he seems like more of a prototypical 4th-OF kinda guy), Hicks, or possibly even Carson. Also a possibility is Carroll being dealt to a team with a need for a veteran presence in their infield to give guys like Eduardo Escobar, Pedro Florimon, and Dozier a chance in the Bigs. Fourth, the Twins non-tender Alexi Casilla, given his extreme inconsistency at the plate, although if they did, they would probably keep Carroll around so he could handle 2B. I also see the Twins keeping Drew Butera around to handle catching duties when Doumit and Mauer aren't available. Therefore, I see a starting lineup, while not perfect by any means, looking something like this, and again, not in any order:

1. Ben Revere CF
2. Chris Parmelee 1B
3. Joe Mauer C
4. Ryan Doumit Wherever the heck we need him to stand for a day
5. Josh Willingham LF
6. Trever Plouffe 3B
7. Carroll 2B
8. Dozier SS
9. RF-Don't have any guesses; could stick Parmelee here if they keep Morneau till the NW-trade deadline next year, could be a platoon of AAAA/4th outfielder types, or could even be Arcia, if the Twins are feeling he is ready.

Guys I think are done with the Twins
Nishi; Not even going to get started
Gray; hasn't been great, hasn't been (too) awful
Robertson; might deserve a second chance next year, but wouldn't be on any playoff team's roster
Capps; been fun, bro, but it's time to leave. We really hope the Twins don't overspend on you again.
Pavano; good veteran presence, but probably not worth the money we are spending on you
Casilla; hasn't done enough at the plate, like, ever, to deserve to be with the Twins next year.
Blackburn; again, most certainly not worth the money we threw at you.
Liriano; yeah, you're already gone; the equivalent feeling of you being gone is like not having to deal with the drama that was constantly surrounding Brett Favre when he was with the Vikings
Maloney; yeah, you kinda threw away a great chance to be one of the lefty relievers for this team
Marquis; didn't entirely agree with your signing, so glad we got rid of you after watching (and throwing up) every time you took the mound for us.
Valencia; again, not even going to get into it
Clete Thomas; made quite the initial impression with us, then your reputation went south from there
Sean Burroughs; I really wanted you to make the team, but I am not sure you impressed enough people to warrant a return next year. Although you might warrant a September call-up and I would be interested in seeing how you perform in that.

I wait to be impressed/unimpressed by the moves Ryan will make this offseason/next year.

Pitching:
Carl Pavano (expect)
As consistent as you sometimes were, Carl, this most recent injury-plagued season has probably cost you a position with the Twins, and, most likely, in the Bigs. While you may have been a nice guy and class act personality who worked well with Drew Butera, the Twins, and every other team, should look to go younger at than a 36-ish somewhat injury-plagued pitcher.

Matt Capps (expect)
Well, it has been an interesting run while you were with us, Cappie. You have made us hate you and love you (hate you a little more often than love you). While we thought you were worth $4.5 million this offseason, most of us here didn't. But we now have several relief pitchers that we can trust more than you, and we don't have to pay them as much, and they don't stay injured like you have this year.

Nick Blackburn (hope)
Well, Nick, at least you have a role model to look up to in the getting ground balls department on this team. His name is Scott Diamond, and you are supposed to do what he does, except better. Yeah, you have really fallen short of expectations, and most people here at Twins Daily are getting tired of your inconsistency.

Jeff Gray (Grey?) (Don't really care)
Well, some people were suggesting putting him on this list in the comments, probably because of the bad outings he has had. Well guess what? Most people were hating on Glen Perkins before he became this out getting god at the back of our bullpen. So give Grey (Gray?) a break. He will come back. Relievers always have a few rough spots before their good streaks. That's what makes us like them all the more.
Catchers:
Drew Butera (don't know my feelings about this guy)
You have been part of an interesting time for the Twins, Drew, one where your fielding kept you on the Major League roster even when your hitting said you didn't deserve to be. I didn't have any problem keeping you around when we didn't have a true backup for Joe, but now we kinda do. And with the departure of Liriano and the almost certain departure of Pavano, you are losing the pitchers that you were like the "pitching whisperer" too. So this might mean you are out of a job, but again, maybe not. Neither Mauer or Doumit are full-time catchers, so you might still have a job with the Twins come next season

1st Baseman:
Justin Morneau (expect and hope, but not for the wrong reasons)
Justin, you are one of my favorite Twins players. That is why this is probably the hardest entry for me to write. You have gone through so much with the Twins, including hitting your 200th home run, winning an MVP award, sustaining two concussions, and your comeback this year. You were even titled the new-age "M&M Boys" with your friend Joe. But with your recent comeback and the hopeful signs that Parmelee is showing down in AAA, you have made yourself increasingly expendable for the good of the team. If they do manage to trade you, they should get a lot of salary relief, a MLB-ready pitcher, and your legacy as one of the best power hitters the Twins have developed so far.

2nd Baseman:
Alexi Casilla (expect)
Well Alexi, you have certainly always been a better defender than offender, but the fact that you are one of the last (as Ozzie Guillen titled them) Little Piranhas makes me wish that you could have produced offensively like you did defensively.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka (seriously expect and hopeful up the wazoo)
Oh, Nishioka, we thought you would be the infield version of Ichiro. Instead, you have been the infield brother of whomever the worst infielder ever is. You have made more errors at short and second than any of us could believe, or wanted to expect. You have the, to put it nicely, the hitting of Nick Punto, but none of his fielding wizardry. As the number of "Get rid of Nishi tabs has risen on this site's forum, so has the criticism of you from people we wouldn't expect to criticise you.

Brian Dozier (only send him to AAA)
Dozier, it has certainly been an interesting few months. You made quite the first impression, but since then, have been starting to struggle little by little. You have been as athletic as advertised in the field, and we can only hope that you improve with the bat, but I would suggest that you start the year in AAA, just to get a little more seasoning and time spent with Bruno.

Outfielders:
Denard Span (sort of expect)
Span, you have been a solid outfielder, a solid baserunner, and a dependable lead-off man whose value hasn't been higher for a long time, if ever. I fully expect the Twins to trade you this offseason to make room for Ben Revere in center, not because I don't enjoy watching you play, because I believe it is necessary for the continued improvement of this team.

Rene Tosoni (expect to stay in the Minors, and definately not on the 40-man roster)
Well, we haven't seen you at all this year, Rene, and you have been demoted from AAA to AA for low performance. So, yeah, with all the higher-ranking OF prospects the Twins have, I would be very surprised to see you at the Major League level again (at least with the Twins), especially with the emergence of Mastroianni as the quintessential 4th outfielder.

So, the Twins have 52 games left in this 2012 season. We can all agree that the first two months of the season were probably the hardest things for us to watch since last year. The ray of light that has us moving up the standings comes from the Twins being 13-12 since the All-Star Break, and at least four of their losses were very close and could have gone either way.

So, I am much more of a late-night person than an early morning person, so I decided to look at the Twins' record against the Central when they have been successful. It was overwhelming; the years that the Twins were successful were years when they were putting it to their rivals in the Central.

So this brings me to the point of this post. While the chances of the Twins making a postseason run are virtually nonexistant, there is that .000001% chance that they do make one, and I believe that it would involve taking it to their rivals in the Central, with whom they still share much of their remaining schedule. (Just go with me on this, I need to express the feeling of hope that is growing inside of me.)

Of the next 52 games, 29 are against the Indians, Royals, Tigers, and White Sox. In the last decade (2002-2012), they have played their foes in the Central to an average win % of .561. Theoretically, if the Twins were to go by the average of this %, they would win about 16.3 of the 29 games (must include extra innings). With the way they are playing however, I fully believe that they could play to a winning percentage of .585, which would mean they would win about 17 of those games.

The other 23 games are comprised of 14 versus the West, who the Twins have played to a .523 winning percentage over the last decade, and, unfortunately, 9 games against the East. Of course, the Twins' woes against the East are well documented, especially against the Yankees, so I think the Twins should be happy to win 4 of those 9 games. Now, against the West, the Twins, if the averages are correct, would win about 7 of those games. I think they will do better than that, because in recent years they have seemed to have Texas's number. So give them around 9 out of 14.

Given the math, and then my guesses, here is what I am predicting for the Twins' record over the last 52 games:

Math: 27-25, about the record we were expecting the Twins to have this year, just around .520

My wildest dreams: 35-17; a .673 winning percentage and very close to a wild card spot

My more realistic dreams: 29-23; a .557 winning percentage and should give them 3rd place, barring a collapse from Detroit and Chicago and a hot streak from the Indians or Royals.

The Twins made their game against Boston very interesting, waiting until the last inning to uncork the big hit they had been looking for all game, with the three-run home run from Mauer winning the game for them.

ROCHESTER 6, TOLEDO 0

P.J. Walters made a rehab start for AAA Rochester. He lasted 2 innings, giving up no runs, hits, walks or K's. Esmerling Vasquez then tossed the next 4, giving up 2 hits, 1 BB, and struck out three and received the win. The game was ended early due to a rain delay after the top of the 7th.

On the offensive side, the Red Wings were led by Parmelee who had a solo shot, single and a walk in 3 AB's and Evan Bigley, who hit a grand slam in a 5-run 6th for the Twins. Matt Carson, Wilson Ramirez, and Clete Thomas all had singles.

NEW BRITAIN 8, ALTOONA 6

Blake Martin started for the Twins. He lasted just four innings, giving up 3 runs (2 earned) on 4 hits, 4 walks and 2 K's. Jose Gonzalez (earned the win) and Dakota Watts combined for 4 innings of 2 hit, 2 walk, 5 K ball. Edgar Ibarra and Matthew Hauser made things interesting in the 9th when they gave up 3 runs, all earned on 5 hits, but Hauser eventually closed it out for his first save.

The Twins were led on offense by Aaron Hicks, who was 3-5 with a HR, 2 RBI's and 2 runs, and Chris Herrmann who was also 3-5 with 3 RBI's. Joe Benson was 1-4. James Beresford was 3-4 with an RBI. The Twins were also helped by the three errors that Altoona made in the game.

WISCONSIN 2, BELOIT 1

A close game in the Twins system that didn't go the Twins way. Jason Wheeler got the start for the Twins and took the loss. Usually reliable, he gave up 2 runs on 3 hits in the first, but he would give up only 3 hits and a walk through the next 7 innings, but it still wasn't enough. He also had 10 K's. DJ Baxendale pitched a perfect 9th, striking out the side.

The only offense the Twins managed was a HR by Kennys Vargas. They had 4 walks and 5 other hits besides the HR, but the Snappers couldn't put anything together. Miguel Sano was 1-4 with his 22nd double and 2 K's. Rosario was 1-4 with a single. Unusually, the Snappers catcher, Matthew Koch, was caught stealing home. The Snappers were also 0-7 with RISP.

FT. MYERS 5, ST. LUCIE 4

Cole Nelson got the start in this game for the Miracle. He lasted just 4 innings, giving up 4 runs, all earned, on 7 hits and 3 walks, and he struck out only one. Miguel Munoz got the win, pitching the next 2 2/3, giving up only 2 hits, 3 walks, and he struck out 2. Michael Tonkin got the save, his fourth, by pitching the last 2 1/3 innings, giving up 1 hit and 1 walk with 4 K's.

Andy Leer, the 2B for the Miracle, had two hits and an RBI. Nobody else on the Miracle had more than one hit, but Josmil Pinto made his hit count, hitting a HR in the 6th that pulled the Miracle within 2 of St. Lucie. Just like New Britain, the Miracle were helped by the error in this game, St. Lucie had 3 errors and only 2 of their runs were earned.

DANVILLE 5, ELIZABETHTON 2

Angel Mata started for the E-Twins. He went 4 2/3, giving up all 5 runs (4 earned) on the strength of 3 hits and 4 walks. He struck out 5 and took the loss. Josh Burris took over the next 2 1/3, only giving up 1 hit and walked 2, but also struck out two. Tyler Herr pitched the 8th and pitched perfectly, striking out one. Luke Bard took the 9th and gave up 1 hit and struck out two.

Unfortunately, the E-Twins were unable to get anything going offensively until the 8th. Before that, Danville pitchers Lucas Sims, Eduardo Castillo, and Rafael Briceno gave up exactly 1 hit, 1 walk, and 1 HBP. Jorge Polanco provided the E-Twins's offense tonight, with a 2-run shot off of Alex Wilson, his 2nd of the year with Quesada on 1st after another HBP. The only other Twins with hits were Travis Harrison, who singled, and Rory Rhodes, who singled and walked twice. The E-Twins were also 0-8 with RISP.

GCL TWINS 7, GCL RED SOX 5

In a meeting of the lowest minor league affiliates of the MLB Teams, the Twins again came out on top, again in a come from behind fashion, but not quite as dramatic as with 2 outs in the top of the 9th.

The game was looking dicey in the 1st, as the Sox scored 4 of their 5 runs against starter Austin Malinowski. His line was over after 2 1/3. He gave up 4 runs (only 2 earned) on 4 hits and one walk. He also struck out 2. J.O. Berrios took over at that point. He lasted 2 2/3, enough to get the win. He gave up 1 run (earned) on 3 hits, a walk, and struck out 6 men. Hung Yi Chen pitched the next three innings, giving up no runs, hits, or walks, and he struck out 3. Alex Muren earned the save, giving up a hit and striking out one and allowing no runs.

The Twins were led by several men tonight, including Byron Buxton, John Murphy, and Bryan Santy. Byron was 2-4 with a triple and a HR, as well as 2 RBI's, 3 runs, a walk, and a strikeout. Buxton's average is now up to .214. Murphy went 1-4 with a double, but drove in 3, and scored a run. Santy went 2-3 with 2 singles, an RBI and a K.


Hitters of the Day: tie between Evan Bigley (AAA) and Aaron Hicks (AA).

Hicks


Bigley

Pitchers of the Day: tie between the Red Wings and Jason Wheeler


Wheeler pitched a good game, but got no run support


Esmerling Vasquez picked up where Walters left off and won the game for AAA Rochester


P.J. Walters pitched two perfect rehab innings in AAA



Rochester @ Toledo--???
New Britain vs. Altoona--B.J. Hermsen (8-5, 3.20 ERA)
Beloit vs. Wisconsin--David Hurlbut (4-5, 2.78 ERA)
Ft. Myers @ St. Lucie--Tom Stuifbergen (4-4, 5.40 ERA)
Elizabethton vs. Danville--Hein Robb (2-2, 2.81 ERA)
GCL Twins off day

With all the turmoil currently surrounding whether or not pieces that have been on the Twins for many years will be moved, the one piece everybody seems to say has an almost 100% chance of being moved is Francisco Liriano.

While Frankie has been a head case for a large part of the season, his raw stuff is enough to make any scout drool over him. However, this has not been the Frankie that has shown up to pitch with the Twins over the last year+.

So the question is: "Who will be traded that has a higher value than Frankie?" Several big names, including Anibal Sanchez and Wandy R. have already been moved to new teams. Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee, who the Phillies had apparently open for calls on, are staying with the Phillies, at least for now. King Felix is staying with the Mariners, and Ryan Dempster is insistent that if he is traded, he will be traded only to the LA Dodgers. So I believe that leaves us with three "high-tier" (relative term) left on the market: Frankie, Josh J. and Greinke (of course, if I am missing anyone, feel free to let me know). So the market for these guys is fairly wide open.

Greinke has been connected to many teams including the Orioles and Indians (but neither team is really looking for a rent-a-pitcher), White Sox, Rangers, Angels, and Braves.

The Marlins have said that they would trade only one of Anibal Sanchez and Josh Johnson, so it is believed that it would take a huge offer to pry him away from the Marlins. However, Johnson has been connected to the Blue Jays, Rangers, Angels, Orioles, and Dodgers are the ones most interested in him.

And then there is Frankie. He has been a head case for so long, and people have been crying out for the Twins to trade him ever since 2009, I think. The teams that have checked in on him (or more than that, maybe (hopefully)) includes the Angels, Orioles, Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, and Braves. The Blue Jays, Mets, and Red Sox are fairly far out in their divisions, but I suppose are close enough in the Wild Card that they could try and swing a trade for a pitcher like Liriano. The Angels and Orioles are the ones that appear to have the best shot at landing Liriano, and former Twin Torii Hunter said almost as much and that he would be happy to be on the same team as him again.

The Twins, unfortunately, might have to lower their asking price for Liriano if they really want to deal him, especially with the inconsistency he has showed this year. But according to my calculations, he is one of the three best starters (gauged in pure, raw talent, not in number production) left on the market, and the Twins will most certainly use that to their advantage.

P.S. While researching for this blog, found that if the season ended today, the Oakland A's would take the second of two Wild Card spots in the A.L. This has got to be the closest they have been to the playoffs since they took out the Twins in 2006.

How does the competitive balance lottery work, and what do you have to do to be eligible for it?

According to MLBTradeRumors, both Kevin Gausman (1,4 Orioles) and Mark Appel (1,8 Pirates) are both leaning against signing with their draft teams, both for different reasons.
When teams learned that Appel, a Scott Boras client, wanted a $6 million+ bonus, he fell down all the way to the Pirates at the #8 pick. This means that instead of being able to get that much money for getting picked at #'s 1-3, he dropped to #8, and the most the Pirates can offer him without losing a first round draft pick in 2013 is $3.84 million, and the Pirates don't want to lose that pick. Therefore, Appel is not likely to sign with the Pirates unless he unbends and accepts the lower money.

Gausman, on the other hand, wants to return to LSU to win the College World Series as he believes the Tigers have the personnel to do it. Therefore, Gausman, while he is still in talks with the Orioles, seems more interested in returning for his senior year.

Not that I want the Twins to totally collapse in the second half, but if both of these pitchers are available in next years draft, especially Gausman, that could seriously help the Twins out. Unfortunately, if Gausman does really well, then the Twins might need to have the worst record in the Majors to have a chance at him. Therefore, while it may be painful to watch them be bad enough to earn a draft pick high enough to draft Gausman, he would do a lot to help the Twins rebuild their thin high-echelon pitching ranks in the Minors.

In case you were wondering, the Twins currently have the 6th worst record in the Majors at 36-49 and a .424 winning %, with Philly as #7 at 37-50 and a .425 winning %. The five teams ahead of the Twins are Seattle with a .414 winning %, San Diego with a .391 winning %, Cubs and Rockies tied at a .388 winning %, and Houston with the worst W-L record at a .384 winning %.

I would think that to get Gausman, the Twins would probably need anywhere from the 1st-3rd worst record, as it is unlikely that his stock will drop over the next year (unless he gets a major injury) and more likely that it will rise, and to rise from the #4 overall pick, you have the #1-3 overall picks.