How many Twins starting pitchers do you have confidence in? For me, the list begins and ends with Scott Diamond. How sad is that?

Check this out: Through Sunday's games, the average AL starter gives his team just under 6 IP/GS with a 4.33 ERA. The Twins have gotten just 5 1/3 IP/GS with a 6.18 ERA. With league average starting pitching, the Twins would have allowed 41 fewer ER in 34.1 more IP. That reduced workload on the bullpen (3.58 ERA) saves another 14 ER, for a total of 55 fewer RA. The resulting 210 RS and 229 RA differential produces a pythagorean record of 24-29. Hardly stellar, but with the league's most difficult opening schedule behind them they would be on pace to win at least 10 more games than last year. That's a team that still needs a lot of work, but is far from hopeless.

This weekend I was wishing there was some way the Twins could find a decent guy to hold down a spot in their decimated rotation without having to give up too much - a difficult task in the middle of the season. But the Reds have just released Jeff Francis. There's a cheap, veteran replacement for Jason Marquis (or Carl Pavano or Nick Blackburn depending on how you look at it). I never thought I'd say this, but, "Pretty please, let's sign Jeff Francis right away!"

Through 25 games:

Year	W	L	GB	RS	RA	Diff	BA	OBP	SLG	ERA	WHIP	HR/9
2006	9	16	9.0	99	156	-57	.251	.309	.366	6.35	1.64	1.56
2012	7	18	7.5	90	139	-49	.246	.312	.362	5.61	1.41	1.59

Nearly identical offensive performances - the 9 extra runs the 2006 team had were due to some combination of more HR and fewer GIDP. The pitching was even worse back then. As tough as last week’s series in Anaheim was to swallow, how about the sweep the ’06 team suffered in Detroit at the about the same time of year: they were outscored 33-1! Though they had 2 more wins than the current squad, they were buried 1.5 games deeper in the standings thanks to a hot start by the defending champion White Sox.

Changes would come to that roster, but not right away. Even while Tony Batista and Juan Castro continued to occupy the left side of the IF and Rondell White took his swings every day, things improved markedly. Over their next 25 games, they went 14-11, hitting .288/.347/.429 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.39 WHIP, outscoring their opponents 137-114. Despite that, they dropped to 11.5 GB as Detroit surged to the top of the standings.

Two things I’d like people to think about when they see this comparison:

1) The 2012 Twins are no worse than the team that broke camp in 2006, and that team managed to recover to a .460 Win% given a large enough sample of games. This team can do that, too. 25 games is only 15% of the season.

2) Though the sort of upgrades that eventually carried the 2006 team on a historic 71-33 run to finish the season don’t appear to be within reach now, they don’t need to be. 2006 was the toughest AL Central ever, with three teams winning 90 or more games. I’d be surprised if even one team reaches that level this year. The top run differential in the division right now is +2. 6 games under .500 is within 5 games of first place, and that’s close enough to be in the division race and buying at the trade deadline.

I don’t think the current is roster is necessarily a contender, but they’re better than they’ve shown, and this is a terrible division. Could we give it another 4 weeks before we start thinking about how to blow this team up?

In my last post, I investigated whether the offense was really as bad as it has looked so far. I discovered that, since the Home Opener, the Twins have been swinging the bats well enough to average about 5 runs/game. They have been held back by an extremely low BA with RISP and high rate of HIDP, each of which is likely to revert to the mean over a large enough sample. Once that happens, we should be left with an above-average offense for 2012-2013.

The news is not so good on the run prevention side, though that is also significantly better than it would appear.

In all of baseball, only the Brewers have allowed more than the Twins 10.23 H/9. You might expect that poor fielding range would be a contributor to that, as it is in Milwaukee. But in fact, the defensive metrics generally view the Twins’ defense favorably so far, rating them average to slightly above in most cases. Their 14 errors and .983 Fielding% rank in the top half of MLB, and they’re on pace to allow just 37 unearned runs - less than half last year’s total. The defense isn’t a problem, either.

That leaves the pitching, and that has been brutal. The Twins’ staff ranks at the bottom of MLB in runs allowed, ERA, FIP, xFIP, tERA, SIERA, BAA, HR/9 and LOB%. Their BABIP against, though high for April, isn’t much different from last year’s league average of .294 - another indication that the defense hasn’t hurt them. Despite Francisco Liriano’s struggles finding the strike zone, the staff as a whole has an excellent 2.56 BB/9, so at least they’re doing that right. 21.9% of their balls in play have been line drives, a rate that places them in the bottom third of the league, though still ahead of good pitching teams like Texas, Tampa and Oakland.

Their very low K/9 is going to put pressure on their defense all year. But even so, things shouldn’t be this bad. They are mainly because of two factors which, like the offensive problems of BA with RISP and HIDP, should eventually revert to the mean.

First is their LOB%. Right now it’s at 66.8%, nearly 2% lower than the next worst team. Last year’s pitiful staff was also worst in the Majors, but at 69.1%. Now, 2.3% may not seem like a big difference, but it adds up quickly. It means that 1 extra guy is scoring for every 43 who reach base. With the Twins’ WHIP at 1.42, they’re giving up at least 13 baserunners per nine innings pitched. So that terrible strand rate translates to nearly 1 more run allowed every 3 games than last year’s dreadful staff. This factor does a lot to explain why their FIP (5.13) is half a run lower than their ERA (5.64).

Second is their HR/FB. Typically, 1 out of every 10 or 11 flies will leave the yard. For the Twins, it’s been 1 out of 6. Last year’s godawful staff allowed homers at pretty much the normal ratio, which is why their FIP, xFIP and SIERA were all about the same (while FIP uses the HR/FB pitchers actually had, xFIP and SIERA use the average rate, which results in more accurate predictions). Interestingly, the Twins’ xFIP (4.34) and SIERA (4.32) for April were almost exactly the same as their totals from 2011 (4.33 and 4.27). Remember, those numbers are still 30th out of 30 teams. But they look a hell of a lot better than 5.64.

If the Twins’ ERA was where xFIP and SIERA say it should be, they would have allowed 96 R in April. Along with the 87 runs they scored, that would make their expected record 10-12. But as I pointed out last time, the offense swung the bats well enough to have scored 86 runs in the 17 games following opening weekend. Add those to the 5 they got in Baltimore and the 10 they scored on Sunday and Monday, and you’ve got a team that should be .500, just a game back in the AL Central standings.

Ultimately, I don’t think .500 will cut it, but it’s more in line with my expectations of the abilities of these players. With Scott Baker and Joel Zumaya lost for the season and Liriano and Matt Capps lost in the woods, the Twins desperately need a high quality addition to both the rotation and the bullpen. That will cost them something; whether they feel it’s worth the price will depend on how quickly they can start matching their on-field results with what the formulae say they should be producing. If they don’t make a move, we can expect them to remain the worst staff in baseball. But even so, they should be better than this.

If I’d told you before the season started that, 20 games in, Denard Span would have a .386 OBP, Joe Mauer would be hitting .329 and Justin Morneau would have an IsoP of .236, plus newcomer Josh Willingham would have a 1.114 OPS, what would you have expected the Twins’ record to be? Better than 5-15, I hope. There are a lot of reasons why it is that poor, and some of them are not easily solved, but I don’t believe the offense is one of them.

Ultimately, it’s about scoring runs, and the numbers there are not good. The Twins have crossed the plate just 77 times in their first 20 games, putting them on pace to score 624 runs. Unless they pick it up, we’ll be facing 100 losses again at the end of September.

Fortunately, they have picked it up. Since forgetting to bring their bats to the opening series in Baltimore, the Twins have hit .279/.343/.419 with 11/14 SB. If you plug their offensive numbers from the past 17 games into a simple formulation of Runs Created, you get just over 5 runs/game, on pace for about 820 runs on the year. That’s a lineup that can contend in a weak AL Central.

Sadly, the formula hasn’t been reflective of their real-world performance. They’ve actually averaged 4.2 runs/game over their last 17, a pace for 686 runs on the season. With this pitching staff, that will probably leave them at least 10 games under .500. There are two major reasons for this discrepancy between the formula and what’s really happened over the last 3 weeks. Happily, neither is likely to be a problem over the long haul.

First, though they’ve hit well overall, they’ve had a lot of trouble cashing in on their scoring opportunities. Since Baltimore, they’re hitting .241 with RISP. In 2011, they hit .249 overall and .248 with RISP, and the AL as a whole hit .257 overall and .258 with RISP. With a large enough sample size, the numbers will even out. Unless you believe there’s something inherently un-clutch about the Twins’ hitters. I don’t.

Second, there are the double plays. The Twins have already hit into 22 DPs, a rate of 1 for every 11.5 baserunners. The other 13 teams in the AL have combined to hit into 200, about 15 apiece, a rate of 1 for every 16.3 baserunners. Just in case you think there’s something about the Twins’ hitting style that makes them more likely to hit into DPs, last year’s horrific offense did so at a rate of... 1 for every 16.5 baserunners. Given enough time, the frequency of Twin-killings should normalize.

Not only are they hitting into more than their share of DPs, they’re doing it disproportionately in games where it hurts the most. The Twins had 8 of them turned against them in 4 games they lost by a single run. Had they been able to redistribute one rally-killing DP away from each of those games (such as Sean Burroughs’ on Wednesday or the dicey call on Doumit’s sinking liner on Friday), it’s not hard to imagine them having 3-4 more wins than they do right now. And, given the strength of their early-season opponents and their disastrous starting pitching, 8-9 wins at this stage would be a decent accomplishment.

I would expect their BABIP to come down somewhat over the course of the season. Even so, this lineup appears to be capable of producing at least 750 runs over 162 games. That’s a strength - the average AL team scored 723 runs in 2011. The Twins’ typical starting 9 earns about $54M combined. Doumit is the only guy in that group who isn’t under contract or team control for 2013. The other 8 could all be back for a combined salary of... about $54M.

This team’s troubles sit squarely on the pitching side. They may not be solvable this year, but there will be an opportunity to mostly wipe the slate clean next offseason. The quality and stability of the offense gives them the opportunity to devote just about all of their resources to upgrading the pitching. They’ve got big problems this year, but I wouldn’t dismantle the offense and write off 2013 yet.

On April 16th, 2000, I went to the Dome to see the Twins take on the Orioles. Joe Mays vs. Sidney Ponson - what an auspicious pitching matchup that was! Mays took the mound and proceeded to lose the game with dizzying speed. Homer, single, double, 2-run single, groundout, 2-run homer. 6 batters and 20 pitches into the game, he’d allowed 5 ER on 5 H.

Undoubtedly, someone was up in the bullpen. Perhaps there were some derisive cheers when TK walked out to the mound. After all, this was even worse than Mays’ previous start, when he gave up 7 ER on 4 H and 4 BB in 1.1 IP. To that point in the young season he had allowed 17 ER on 17 H (3 HR) and 4 BB, an 18.37 ERA. We were all justified in thinking that Mays sucked. He would have been justified in feeling that way about himself.

But after a short conversation, TK walked back to the dugout without taking the ball. I don’t know what was said, but the message I got in the bleachers was something like, “Joe, I’m not going to let you abuse this bullpen any more. You’re going to stay out here for 100 pitches. You can keep letting them smack you around the field, or you can make an adjustment and compete. You’re a big league pitcher, and we expect you to get outs. Now go do your job.”

To my amazement, Mays went on to complete the next 7.2 IP in just 86 pitches, scattering 3 H and 0 BB while striking out 7. While he continued to take his lumps throughout his 2nd MLB season - 6 of his subsequent 25 GS were clunkers - for me this game came to symbolize a turning point for Mays. Injuries would soon erode his mediocre stuff to the point that he was hopeless. But from the moment of that mound visit to the end of the 2002 regular season, he averaged about 6.1 IP/GS with a 4.14 ERA. (If you give him a mulligan on April 2002, when he was clearly trying to pitch through injury, things look even better.) That’s pretty similar value to what Carl Pavano has given the Twins. Mays’ upside was back-of-the-rotation innings-eater, but he needed a kick in the pants to reach his potential.

Which brings us to Francisco Liriano. His first three starts have been every bit as horrid as Mays’ in 2000. Unlike Mays, he has the stuff to be elite. He had a brilliant spring, and looked awesome mowing down the side in order in his first inning in Baltimore. Then a good hitter hit a good pitch out of the park, and the wheels came off. It’s a shame that Liriano’s self-confidence is so brittle that it could be shattered with one swing. But it’s inexcusable that the Twins should have enabled his downward spiral by taking him out so early that day.

The WHIP looked terrible, but several of the hits were balls the IF got leather on. The last hit he allowed was a little jam-shot blooper. They weren’t exactly knocking him around the field. But he was out after 4 IP and just 74 pitches. If Valencia hadn’t clanged that 2-out “double” (which another scorer might have ruled an error), Liriano would have allowed just 3 ER in those 4 IP with only 65 pitches. Either way, would they have pulled Pavano from that game? Or Blackburn? I doubt it. And I bet we’ll find over the next couple of months that they won’t pull Marquis from that game, either.

How about the second start against the Angels? Liriano had one bad inning, then got on a roll over which he retired 10 of 11 batters. He walked the guy who had taken him into the 2nd deck, then gave up a one-armed double just fair down the line on a pretty decent 1-2 changeup. At 91 pitches, with the 8-9-1 hitters due up in the next inning, he was pulled. Would any of the other starters have been pulled under those circumstances?

By yanking Liriano so early in these games, Gardy has sent the message that he doesn’t believe Frankie can get anybody else out. Liriano seems to have gotten the message. He has pitched progressively worse over his 3 GS - he was legitimately putrid against the Yankees, like he was scared to throw the ball over the plate. His manager’s blatant lack of confidence in him can’t be helping. That has to change. Liriano needs to make friends with the fear. His next bullpen session should go something like this.

Do what TK did, Gardy. Take away the net. On Sunday morning in Tampa, tell Liriano that he’s going to throw 7 innings. He can do it in 90 pitches or 150, but he’s not coming out of there until he gets at least 21 outs. Maybe that will get him attacking hitters again. It worked for Mays. Tough love - you know how it's done. See what happens. Maybe it will make Liriano better. I don't see how it could make him any worse.

It's easy to be down on the Twins' prospects for this year. 2011 was in many ways their worst season ever, and the offseason moves by Terry Ryan didn't do much more than maintain the talent level they started with last April. So we must be headed for another dreadful season, right? Not so fast.

The Twins allowed 804 runs last year. Their pitching staff was last in the Majors in K/9, 29th in ERA and 29th in WHIP. But they were also last in BABIP, suggesting that things might bounce better for them this year. Their FIP (4.30), xFIP (4.33) and SIERA (4.27), though still among the worst in the league, indicate the pitchers deserved better than their 4.60 team ERA. Were they to pitch precisely as poorly in 2012, they could be expected to allow 45 fewer ER over the same number of innings.

The defense, somewhat surprisingly, wasn't terrible in terms of range. UZR/150, for example, has them at just -0.4 R for the season. What killed them were errors; they were 28th in errors and fielding %. The 80 unearned runs they allowed were by far the most of the Gardy era. Over the last 10 seasons, they've averaged between 50-60 UER. Cutting back on errors is something the Twins can control, and with the additional emphasis they're placing on fundamentals this spring, I would expect them to reduce their mistakes by about 1/3. Simply replacing the abysmal play they got at SS with Jamey Carroll's excellent career averages at the position would eliminate 19 errors and 13 UER.

On the run prevention side of the ledger, if you give the Twins' pitchers a 4.30 ERA over 1450 IP (a roughly league average total), they will allow 693 ER. If you assume that the more focused and slightly upgraded defense will cough up a more typical 55 UER, you get a total of 748 RA.

The offensive side is clouded by lingering injury concerns to some key players. But until I hear reports to the contrary, I'm going to assume that everyone is healthy, and therefore ready to contribute at the levels they've established in recent years. The exception is Morneau - I don't think it's reasonable to expect him to return to the MVP-caliber play he displayed before his concussion.

Below is a table which builds a simple formulation of runs created: (H+BB-CS)x(TB+.55SB)/(AB+BB). The numbers I'm projecting for the starters are based on the stats from their last 3 healthy seasons, prorated over the number of ABs they racked up in a typical year. Span's averages go from 2008 up to the point of his concussion; Doumit's and Casilla's include 2008 since they missed so many games between 2009-2011. I'm throwing out Mauer's 2011 as an injury aberration and using 2008-2010 instead. With Morneau, I'm also throwing out 2011, but estimating only 75% of his 2008-2010 production over 140 games. I'm only using Major League stats for Valencia and Revere.

The starters account for about 77% of the total ABs the Twins had in 2011. The remainder will go to the bench, which I assume will be Butera, Nishioka, Plouffe and Hughes, or similarly unimpressive players. Whoever comes up from Rochester will also be thrown into that pool. I'll give that cast of characters a 23% share of the Punto-esque numbers the Twins hitters as group posted last year (.247/.306/.360). The results:

Player	AB	H	BB	TB	SB	CS	RC
Span	593	172	68	233	24	7	87
Carroll	410	111	50	141	10	2	51
Mauer	523	178	75	263	2	2	111
Morneau	524	118	55	208	0	0	62
Willingham	471	121	67	226	5	1	80
Doumit	419	118	31	188	2	1	62
Valencia	540	145	38	219	3	4	68
Casilla	317	82	28	112	11	2	37
Revere	450	120	26	139	34	9	45
Subs	1240	307	99	446	24	18	133
Total	5487	1472	537	2175	115	46	729

729 runs scored. 748 runs allowed. That differential should result in around 80 wins. With no improvement from the pitching staff, and with Morneau hitting something like .225/.299/.397 over 140 games.

From there, the upside is considerable. What if Baker is healthy enough to take Diamond's starts? Subtract 7 ER. Or if Zumaya can apply his 3.05 career ERA to Nathan's 44.2 IP? Subtract 9 ER. What if Revere improves his average to .280? Add 5 RC. What if Morneau is 80% of his former self? Add 8 RC.

The 2012 Twins don't look like they're going to be a very good team, but they shouldn't suck, either. As long as they aren't unlucky and can put their best guys on the field about 3/4 of the time, they should be around .500. I wouldn't expect any less of them.