Aaron and John talk about their night in a Target Field suite, praying for Samuel Deduno, Oswaldo Arcia showing he belongs again, Clete Thomas subbing for Aaron Hicks, the Byron Buxton experience, Trevor Plouffe coming off the disabled list hot, grumpy Bonnes and sunny Gleeman, starting a team from scratch, releasing Anthony Slama, mailbag questions from listeners, and being chased by the cops. Here are:

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You would think that when Twins Daily hits a milestone like one million views over a month, like we did yesterday, it would cause a lot of elation. And usually, you would be right.


But this time, it was a little overwhelming. Because while I forget details about the beginnings of blogging I still remember certain feelings vividly.


I remember the emptiness of hollering into the void. I remember the elation of finding an audience. I remember the backlash, the anger at cowardly throwaway attacks. The disbelief at shameful obstacles. The frustration. The hopelessness. The resignation.


For the better part of a decade, the naysayers had the louder voice. They used it to tell you that nobody will listen. That your passion is of no interest. That your voice belongs in your mothers basement.


To them I'll reply: 1,000,000.


One million times per month people want to read your thoughts. One million times per month, people want to read your research. One million times per month, people want to share your passion.


To me, that is a dream come true. To the naysayers, it is a fad or a lark or degredation. They are making the same mistake they made ten years ago: they underestimated you.


They didn't think you were passionate enough to find us, kind enough to share, civil enough to discuss, or talented enough to write. And you are all of those and there are millions of you and now we know this, can show this.


Which is a very long way of saying two words: Thank You. I don't pretend to know everyone's motivations for visiting Twins Daily, but whatever the reason, it feels like a miracle. Elation isn't enough.

Here it is: everything you need to look like you’ve been eating and breathing MLB Draft coverage for the last month, all in one quick story.

The Bad News
The Twins are drafting fourth in what is widely considered to be a draft with three great players. If those three go to the first three teams, the Twins will likely go one of two ways:

Option 1 (seems most likely)
They’ll draft a Texas high school pitcher with big upside named Kohl Stewart. He could be the best pitcher in the draft, but high school pitching can be risky and take several years to make it to the majors. OR….

Option 2
They’ll take a high school catcher named Reese McGuire who is ready defensively but will require time in the minors to become a major league hitter. If the Twins did this, it would be so they could save some money on the pick and use that money to “overdraft” later picks. That’s sort of the MLB equivalent of trading down in the draft.

The Good News
There are a lot of rumors flying around that one of the three teams above the Twins will NOT take one of the three best players. They would do so for the same reason that the Twins would do Option 2 – to save money for “overdrafting.” So, let’s explain that.

Overdrafting
There are three things you need to know about the MLB draft:
1) A lot of players who are eligible, but who don't get the bonus they think they should get, won't sign with a team, choosing to re-enter the draft in subsequent years.
2) Therefore, teams often don’t pick a lot of really good players if they don’t think they can sign them.
3) Teams can’t sign them because teams have a set amount they can pay players based on where they pick them. But that limit isn’t per player – it’s for their whole pool of players.

This means that if the Twins saved money with their first pick, they can use their second pick on a player who was talented enough to go in the first round, but didn’t for whatever reason. Then they can offer him first-round money because they can offer the second-round money plus the money they saved.

The Big Three
The good news about overdrafting is that the explanation of it is now over. The really good news is that it means there is a decent chance that one of these three players could fall to the Twins. All project as difference-makers.

Ace #1 - Mark Appel
A college right-handed pitcher who has been on the radar for years – mostly because he was one of those guys last year who didn’t sign. He’s considered ace material and could be in the majors this year, though the Twins might want to be cautious about that given all the innings he racked up for Stanford. The biggest question about him is whether he might want more money than the #4 overall team can offer. (His agent is Scott Boras.)

Ace #2 - Jonathan Gray
A college right-handed pitcher who exploded on the scene this year with triple digit heat and a vicious slider. He’s also considered ace material though riskier than Appel because he has less of a track record. Also, it was revealed this week that he tested positive for Adderall, a stimulant. If things go well, he could be fronting a rotation by the end of next year.

Slugger #1 – Kris Bryant
A slugger who at one point this year had hit more home runs than 90% of Division 1 teams. Read that last word again. Bryant also didn’t have much of a track record this year and scouts aren’t sure if his defense will be good enough to stay at 3^rd base. But with that kind of power, who cares where he plays? He also could reach the majors soon, maybe arriving about the same time next year as Twins uber-prospect Miguel Sano, a slugger who might struggle to stay at 3^rd base.

It’s HERE!
One way or the other, you’re going to have a reason to be excited Friday morning. Either the Twins are adding high-end pitching they desperately need, yet one more eye-popping bat - or a catcher plus more talent in later rounds. (OK, maybe you won't be excited no matter what they do.) But it should bbe an exciting day, so if you want to live and die with each pick, I’d recommend participating in the Official Day 1 Draft Thread. Enjoy.

Who IS This Guy?
Jonathan Gray is a right-handed college starting pitcher who has rocketed up the draft charts becoming one of the two most coveted picks in the draft. Coming into the college season he was a decent but not remarkable prospect, but that was before posting 127 strikeouts (in 110 IP), a 9-2 record and a 1.55 ERA (pre NCAA tournament). It was also before he unveiled improvements on a couple of standout pitches.

The first is an “80” fastball that top three digits on occasion, like it did last week (102 mph), striking out the last batter of a 129-pitch complete game in the NCAA regionals. Coming into the year, he had never shown that kind of velocity, but this year he worked between 94 and 97 all season.

He also has shows a “plus” slider that has also improved due to a tweak in the grip (running the middle finger down the right side of the horseshoe) that has increased the velocity and has tightened the break. He has also shown a curveball and changeup, though both would need to be further developed.


Who Could He Be?

He’s on track to be a #1 pitcher. But it’s been a short track.

Gray might have the most upside of any pitcher in the draft, or at the very least the most of any of the college pitchers. Compared to the other top name, Mark Appel, Gray might have the higher ceiling but has less history on which to base that prediction.

How Soon Could He Be Playing In Target Field?

The path the Twins took with Matt Garza, another first round pick (albeit 25^th overall) provides a clue. Garza was fast-tracked through the system due to his success and the state of the Twins starting rotation. The best guess is…

2013 – Twins have him pitch in rookie league and maybe low A but are careful about piling much wear and tear on his arm (especially if his Oklahoma coach keeps throwing him out there for 129-pitch outings.)
2014 – High A and hopefully AA.
2015 – AA or AAA with a possible late season call-up.

If The Twins Draft This Guy, They Messed Up Because…

The most obvious paradigm in which to criticize this pick would be to say that they got carried away with a player whose value was built on one-year’s performance and improvement. But provided he signs, it would be hard to legitimately criticize, even if he doesn’t make it to the majors for some unforeseen reason. Knowing what we know, he’s the complete package and fits an area of extreme need in the organization.

If The Twins Draft This Guy, They Nailed It Because…

Well, they probably got lucky, because Gray wasn’t supposed to be available at #4 for most of the past two months. However, in Keith Law’s latest mock draft, he had Gray falling into their laps – and then the Twins passed on him for high school pitching prospect Kohl Stewart. Though the Twins are clearly enamored with Stewart, Gray has similar (if not more) upside without the risks associated of drafting a high school pitcher. Oh – and he’s likely to arrive in the majors sooner.

More than any other player in the draft, Gray might be the perfect choice for the Twins.

---

Check out the other Twins Daily MLB Draft Player Profiles or follow the latest national mock drafts in our forum:

• Monday, May 20-- Sean Manaea, SP
• Tuesday, May 21-- Austin Meadows, OF
• Wednesday, May 22-- Trey Ball, OF
• Thursday, May 23-- Ryan Stanek, RHP
• Friday, May 24-- Clint Frazier, OF
• Tuesday, May 28-- Reese McGuire, C
• Wednesday, May 29—Braden Shipley, RHP
• Thursday, May 30 -- Kohl Stewart, RHP
• Friday, May 31 – Kris Bryant, 3B/1B

For MLB Draft Day Coverage, make sure you follow
@TwinsDaily on Twitter!

In the #1 Minnesota Twins podcast, Aaron and John talk about the Twins resurgence and other reasons for optimism, the latest development in the Twins #4 overall pick in the 2013 MLB Draft, John's musical instrument of choice, whether Pedro Florimon is for real, answer questions from readers, wonder what moves the Twins might make, discuss Mike Pelfrey's future, the 2015 lineup and Aaron's feature in the Star-Tribune. Here are:

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The Minnesota Twins won last night, swiping (and sweeping) the season series from the Milwaukee Brewers. The victory raised their record to 23-28 which translates to a 73 win pace over the course of a 162-game season.

But I want to talk about some different swiping that happened, or more accurately, did not happen. In the bottom of the sixth inning, Aaron Hicks was caught trying to steal second base. What struck me as strange at the time was that there were runners on the corners and one out. It seemed like a stupid decision to attempt that at the time, as it can short-circuit a good scoring opportunity. However, one always looks stupid when one is caught. So I wondered, was it as risky as it seemed?

It turns out – I studied this exact situation last year on 5/11, only it was Denard Span that was thrown out. Here’s how that went:

Generally, one studies something like this using Palmer & Thorn's Run Expectancy Matrix. It's a neat grid that shows, given a certain number of outs and people on base, the average number of runs that should score that inning, based on 75 years of major league games. It was published in The Hidden Game of Baseball by Pete Palmer and John Thorn. You can find it here.

Here's the numbers we care about:
1. 1.088 - That's how many runs a team on average would score with runners on 1st and 3rd and one out.
2. 1.371 - If Span would've stolen the base, that's how many runs the average team would've scored.
3. 0.382 - If he was caught, that's how many runs the average team would score.

So Span risked a gain of .283 runs if he stole that base, but a loss of .706 if he was caught. Converting those to percentages, if he steals that base 71% of the time, the team breaks even. That's not especially different than the 2/3 view that is the case for most base stealers. This wasn't especially risky.

Tonight, though, I want to take it a step further. How does it compare to other situations in which one might try to steal a base?

There are 12 situations where a runner might try to steal a base without coordination with the other runner. Here they are:

Runner on 1st, 0 outs
Runner on 1st, one out
Runner on 1st, 2 outs
Runner on 2nd, 0 outs
Runner on 2nd, 1 out
Runner on 2nd, 2 outs
Runners on corners, 0 out
Runners on the corners, 1 out
Runners on corners, 2 outs
Runners on 1st and 2nd, trying to steal 3rd, 0 outs
Runners on 1st and 2nd, trying to steal 3rd, 1 out
Runners on 1st and 2nd, trying to steal 3rd, 2 outs

And here they are again, ranked by just how risky they are. The percentage indicates how often one needs to succeed for it to be a good decision.

92.51% - Runners on 1st and 2nd, trying to steal 3rd, 2 outs
91.10% - Runner on 2nd, 2 outs
79.67% - Runner on 2nd, 0 outs
77.69% - Runners on 1st and 2nd, trying to steal 3rd, 0 outs
77.25% - Runners on 1st and 2nd, trying to steal 3rd, 1 out
75.31% - Runner on 2nd, 1 out
74.74% - Runners on corners, 2 outs
71.39% - Runners on the corners, 1 out
70.73% - Runners on corners, 0 out
65.20% - Runner on 1st, 0 outs
63.41% - Runner on 1st, one out
60.06% - Runner on 1st, 2 outs

So it wasn’t patently stupid, like trying to steal 3^rd when you’re already in scoring position. But it was the 2^nd riskiest situation in which to try and steal 2^nd base. The only thing that would have been worse was if it could have ended the inning.

Who IS This Guy?

Reese McGuire is a left-handed hitting high school catcher that is already ready for the majors defensively, but will need several years to develop similar offensive skills. He has been projected to go anywhere from the top five in the draft to 20^th overall. The Twins have been linked to him by Jim Callis of Baseball America and are definitely interested in him.

Besides McGuire’s skill set, he is intriguing for another reason: by signing him at a below-slot level value, the Twins could bank that leftover money for more aggressive (and expensive) draft choices later in the draft.

Who Could He Be?
His floor would be Drew Butera – a poor-hitting but defensively superior backup catcher. McGuire’s “pop” time – the amount of time it takes for him to receive a throw and get it to second base – is already at a major league level.

Offensively, he is not nearly as developed but he projects to have some left-handed power (10-15 HR) and in this video Keith Law thinks he can hit .270 or .280 in the major leagues. Those stats would line him up to be something like AJ Pierzynski only with Yadier Molina’s glove.

How Soon Could He Be Playing In Target Field?

The last first round catcher the Twins drafted moved up in two-and-a-half years – but that was Joe Mauer. Four years is a much more realistic timetable, so he would debut in 2017, when Mauer is 34 years old, and a year before Mauer’s contract expires.

If the Twins Draft This Guy, They Messed Up Because...

If they Twins draft McGuire the Twins are likely going to be widely criticized, some of which is fair and some of which is not. Perception is that the Twins need to add pitching, that they are too enamored with defensive catchers and that they are unwilling to spend money. Drafting McGuire would reinforce all of those paradigms.

But beyond the public relations problem this would cause, there are some real concerns. They will have passed on three college-age arms – Braden Shipley, Ryne Stanek and Sean Manaea - that all could help reinforce a desperate need in the organization. They will also have passed on a high school pitcher with as much upside as any arm in the draft – Kohl Stewart – and several other high upside talents.

Finally, high school catchers are inherently very risky draft picks. In last night’s Gleeman And The Geek podcast, Jeremy Nygaard listed the high school catchers drafted in the first round since Mauer in 2001. The only one who has made any kind of mark is Neil Walker – and he had to move from catcher.

If the Twins Draft This Guy, They Nailed It Because...

The Twins are in the unpleasant position of drafting fourth in what is widely considered to be a three-player draft. In any other sport, the wise strategy would be to move down in the draft, but MLB draft picks can’t be traded. However, if they sign McGuire for #7 money instead of someone else for #4 money, they can use the money they saved for “overdrafting” in later rounds, essentially adding two first round picks.

For instance, if the Twins draft McGuire and sign him for #7 money, they would have an extra $1.3M to add to their budget for their 2^nd round (43^rd overall) pick, which is also slotted at $1.3M. So they would have $2.6M to offer to the player they chose, which is as much as the 14^th overall pick.

That’s important in the MLB draft, because players drafted in high school or as a junior in college don’t need to sign. For instance, Manaea’s stock has been dropping as he dealt with injuries. Once he falls into the second round, he’s unlikely to sign with whoever drafts him and teams know this, so he just keeps dropping. But the Twins could grab him there, offer him close to the money he originally thought he might get, and end up with (essentially) two first round picks. Or, if the Twins feel like the value in this draft is in later rounds, they could use similar tactics in rounds three through ten.

That’s the best case scenario, and the Twins would be taking a lot of risk that a player like Manaea falls to them and is willing to sign. This also requires a lot of preparation – you don’t want to draft a player if you’re not SURE they’ll sign.

MLB Draft Player Profiles:

• Monday, May 20-- Sean Manaea, SP
• Tuesday, May 21-- Austin Meadows, OF
• Wednesday, May 22-- Trey Ball, OF
• Thursday, May 23-- Ryan Stanek, RHP
• Friday, May 24—Clint Frazier, OF

For MLB Draft Day Coverage, make sure you follow
@TwinsDaily on Twitter!

On the best Minnesota Twins podcast, Aaron and John talk about the Twins' free fall, options for the No. 4 pick in the draft with Twins Daily's Jeremy Nygaard, a ton of roster changes including losing Joe Benson, sending down Oswaldo Arcia, not calling up Kyle Gibson, what happened to Justin Morneau's power, Chris Parmelee in center field, leveraging Glen Perkins, a WHOLE lot more about the draft and meeting listeners at the Apple Store. Here are:

• the podcasts
• the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
• the podcast on iTunes.

Or, just click on the link below:

Numbers can be so clean. Until they aren’t.

Yesterday we studied strikeouts/game and runs/game for teams and found a “correlation coefficient,” which is a number between -1 and 1. 1 means there is a perfect correlation, like the temperature in Fahrenheit and the temperature in Celsius. -1 means there is a perfectly negative correlation, like the amount I spend and my checking account balance. And 0 means there is no correlation, like the amount I spend and the temperature in Celsius.

Unfortunately, the number we found was not 1, 0 or -1. It was .54. So what does that mean?

It means it is somewhere in between. Our number shows that strikeouts aren’t everything, but it also shows that they’re something. Can we find something comparable?

We can if we look at a different set of correlations. The most obvious place to start is in another realm of baseball – hitting. If we do the same exercise – compare the runs per game a team scores to their basic stats for 150 recent teams, what kind of correlations do we see?

(The full results are at the bottom. Also, here is a link to the data.)

The strongest is what you might expect – OPS, which has a .96(!) correlation. In fact, it is this crazy high correlation that drives the interest in OPS. The stats which make up OPS – OBP and SLG – also have high correlations: .87 and .92, respectively.

The most widely used traditional stats for evaluating offense fall a little lower down the list. Batting average is .76. Home runs are .70. I even worked out HR/AB and HR/PA and they ranked a little lower: .67 and .65.

We still haven’t found the stats that have a correlation close to the .54 that K/9 has to runs given up by a pitching staff. The stats closest to that level are At-bats, Walks and Doubles, each of which has a correlation around .60. Converting the last one to a rate statistic, I find that Doubles/At-Bat has a correlation of .547, which is almost dead on.

So we might want to evaluate pitchers by strikeouts about the same way we evaluate batters by doubles. For instance, given a choice between two players, one who hits a lot of doubles, and one who doesn’t, we probably want the guy with the doubles. We also might mention how many doubles a player has as a data point to demonstrate that they have extra power. Doubles are far from a worthless item to track.

But here is probably what we wouldn’t do. We wouldn’t say a free agent is worthless because he ranked behind others in doubles. We probably wouldn’t comb through an organization’s minor league affiliates and suggest that their hitting philosophy is messed up because none of their teams are hitting a lot of doubles. And we wouldn’t suggest that a team scoring runs won’t be able to maintain their pace because they rank dead last in the league in doubles.

The bottom line is that there isn’t a real clean break point here. Strikeouts are important. They might even be the most important stat we can easily evaluate for pitchers, due to a combination of impact and predictability (though we haven’t studied the latter).

But it is exceptionally easy to get carried away with strikeouts, and I think most of the sabrmetric community has, including me. It may be time to step back and admit what we don’t know. And acknowledge that clean numbers aren’t always so clean.

Pitch To Contact - at this point, I think we can go with capital letters, don't you? That phrase and philosophy have drawn a fair amount of criticism, a chunk of which is just snark, but some of which at least tries to ground itself in statistical analysis. In a thread started yesterday on Twins Daily, there was a lot of debate on Pitch To Contact, what it means and what we really know about its effects.

When Bill James unveiled several new tools for analyzing baseball, the most fundamental ones usually started by analyzing team stats. For instance, by studying teams wins and losses, he found a correlation with runs scored and runs given up. And by studying team runs scored, he discovered a correlation between getting on base and total bases. From there, it's a short step to assuming that if you get a lot of players who get on base or hit for power, you'll score more runs.

But how about teams that don't give up many runs? If we take a look at teams for the last few years, can we see a trend in those that don't give up many runs? And does that trend match or contradict a "Pitch To Contact" philosophy.

So let's do a very quick-and-dirty back-of-the-napkin study. I looked at 150 teams, or all the teams from the last five years, ranked them by runs/game and then searched the stats that most closely correlate with it. We can do this using the "CORREL" function in Excel, which generates a coefficient between 0 and 1. 1 means a perfect correlation. 0 means it is entirely random. The full results are at the bottom, but here is a summary.

Those who are critical of the Pitch To Contact philosophy are usually reacting to the reduced emphasis it puts on striking people out. The K/9 correlation to runs per game is .54, one of the lower correlations on the list. That's lower than I would have expected. Clearly, having a staff that strikes out a ton of batters isn't especially important.

The defenders of the Pitch To Contact philosophy like to say that it's essentially saying "throw strikes." Presumably, that would imply not walking people, something that the Twins have certainly emphasized. However, the correlation of BB/9 to R/G is about the same: .56. Like strikeouts, now walking players is good, but not great.

Combing the two gets us a little closer. SO/BB has a .69 correlation. Close to that correlation is something else the Twins have been especially good at this year: not giving up home runs. HR/9 has a .65 correlation.

But the winner, without question, is hits. H/9 has a correlation of .88, crazy high comparable to the other traditional stats in the list. That might seem obvious - if you don't give up hits, you shouldn't give up runs. So the question changes....how do you avoid giving up hits?

Well, it isn't just "strike people out". In fact, we proved just the opposite - that's fine, but a very small part of the story. So the difference is...defense? Luck? Secret sauce?

The truth is we don't know what it is. Sabrmetrics is still remarkably poor at predicting pitching. But we know what it isn't - it isn't as easy as gathering Ks. And whatever philosophy one adopts, its goal better be limiting hits.

The Geek is in New York, so Aaron and special guest co-host Parker Hageman talk about whether the Twins are a legitimately decent team or a mirage, Joe Mauer's hot streak and high strikeout rate, funneling food into your face to become a star, Kyle Gibson's timetable, Mother's Day hijinks, Vance Worley's struggles, Glen Perkins being a nerd again, the pros and cons of cursing, and updating the bar-buying plans. Here are:

• the podcasts
• the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
• the podcast on iTunes.

Or, just click on the link below:

Aaron and John's Minnesota Twin podcast moves to KFAN 100.3 FM, but that's not the only change. The Twins relatively positive start also fuels their most optimistic episode, where they talk about Kevin Correia's fantastic start, the bullpen's impact and depth and the struggles some of the younger players in the lineup are facing. Here are:

• the podcasts
• the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
• the podcast on iTunes.

Or click below to listen.

Aaron and John return to 612 Brew and are joined by a couple guests: Parker Hageman of Twins Daily and 612 Brew's head brewer Adam Schill. Together, they dissect a ridiculously short week for the Twins, Big Papi's speech, wonder from whom will Oswaldo Arcia take playing time, explain why you should subscribe to Minnesota Business magazine, catch up with some top Twins prospects with hot starts, explain what happened after the last podcast, review the Darin Mastroianni injury saga, and review Dick Bremer's and Bert Blyleven's discussion on cybermetrics. Here are:

• the podcasts
• the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
• the podcast on iTunes.

Or click below to listen.

Aaron and John's Minnesota Twins podcast visits a bar for sale. Then they talk about Aaron Hicks historic struggles, their move to KFAN, what went right for the Twins this week, conficting explanations for how the Twins ended up with a low-K pitching staff, Oswaldo Arcia's role this week, what makes Aaron curl into the fetal position, misperceptions about the infield, batting practice misfires, charging the mound and #42. Here are:

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• the podcast on iTunes.

Or click below to listen.

Aaron and John talk about the Minnesota Twins' winning opening week, bouncing back from last week's podcast, what to make of Aaron Hicks' slow start, Glen Perkins' excellence and managing the bullpen, appreciating Roger Ebert, the upcoming "Tix For Tots" event, close games and late-inning heroics, Tyler Robertson's goodbye, and "The Running Man" coming true. Here are:

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• the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
• the podcast on iTunes.

Or click on the link below...