Bill Smith's Biggest Blunder Was Something He Never Did
by, 04-18-2012 at 10:46 AM (1387 Views)
With the Twins pitching staff seemingly dwindling by the day I started to think about what the Twins could do to bolster it or what could they have done to prevent this. Then I remembered reading a rumor about a trade the Twins were looking at after the 2007 season. If you recall this is the off-season Johan Santana was traded for Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra. The rumored trade that Bill Smith supposedly turned down because there weren't enough pieces was Johan Santana to the Dodgers for rookie Matt Kemp and 19 year old phenom Clayton Kershaw. Here are some of the articles I looked up confirming I wasn't imagining I read these things 5 years ago. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/clayton_kershaw/page/5/ and http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...na_to_dodgers/ . Now these were only rumors but if you remember the steam Johan had back then it isn't unreasonable to think this was true. Additionally, there were also the Clay Bucholz and Jacoby Ellsbury rumors and the Melky Cabrera Phil Hughes rumors. Either way all of them would have been better than the actual trade that happened.
This was all 5 years ago and no one can see into the future and we can't go back and change things now, but just this one trade would have this team in a completely different situation today. My timeline shows the Twins turned Johan Santana into the following:
Johan Santana >Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra | Carlos Gomez > JJ Hardy | > JJ Hardy for Jim Hoey | >Mulvey, Humber and Hoey all left the Twins for nothing in return. So using the baseball version of the discounted cash flow method 1 Johan Santana in 2007 = 1 Deolis Guerra in 2012 if you use Bill Smith's trade investment logic. Oy!