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by Matt Sisk

How fast can any of these "top" prospects move up to Minny??

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by
mnfanforlife
, 11-06-2012 at 01:56 PM (3099 Views)
My predictions for the Twins' top prospects for the summer of 2013:
(I am using MLB.com's list, even though I have seen much more accurate lists elsewhere)

blogs/mnfanforlife/attachments/2633-how-fast-can-any-these-top-prospects-move-up-minny-0717_ncsp_fslas3_t607.jpg

(Arcia)

1. Miguel Sano - will hit 20-30 HR's during a full season at Ft. Myers. Will rank in the top 3 in the Florida State League in the following categories: HR, RBI, SLG%, OB+SLG%.....many Twins fans will be clamoring for Sano to get a Sept. call-up. But that wont happen, He will start 2014 in AA with no shot at moving up to AAA or MLB until 2015.

2. Byron Buxton - it will be interesting to see where the organiztion decides to start Buxton in 2013. My guess is that he will start and play all of 2013 in Cedar Rapids (A). This would give him at least one year of full-season ball under his belt before he turns 20. I predict a huge offensive year for Buxton in the Midwest league: .300 avg, 10-15 HR's, 15-25 SB's, numerous top-prospect and All-Star awards, etc. Could contend for MLB playing time as a 21 year-old (2015).

3. Aaron Hicks - will start in AAA, but if the Twins do make a trade involving Span and/or Willingham, Hicks could get a look in Minnesota to start the season. Wherever he plays I predict numbers like these: .260-.280 avg, .360-.400 OB%,10-20 HR's (some upside here), 20-40 SB's, excellent range and glove in CF make him a real possibility to stick in MIN out of spring training.

4. Eddie Rosario - will play an entire season in Ft. Myers (A+) with his buddy Sano while they both learn how to play defense.. Will hit enough for fans to scream for his call-up in September. But that wont happen. He will start 2014 in AA and 2015 in AAA if the front office has its way. His Miracle numbers I project: .285-.310 avg (tough league for hitters), 10-15 HR's, 70-85 RBI's, 10-20 SB's....solid player.

5. Oswaldo Arcia - just like Hicks, will start in AAA unless they trade an MLB outfielder or two. It will get interesting if the Twins trade just one outfielder from the big club. Who would you rather call up to start the year - Arcia or Hicks? It would depend on wether the vacated postion is CF or not. As Hicks could handle CF defensively more readily in the bigs than could Arcia. But Arcia looks to be a cant-miss-middle-of-the-order hitter where Hicks looks more like a table setter. But Hicks did show good power in AA, so that could change how the team views his future role.

Of all the pitching prospects, J.O. Berrios has to be the most intriguing. He absolutely dominated rookie ball as an 18-yr-old. Everyone will be watching to see what he can do in 2013. I predict Berrios starts at Cedar Rapids (A) and has the upside to end up in AA ball by the end of 2013 if he can continue to dominate the Midwest and Florida State Leagues. But he will likely finish 2013 at the A+ level with a 2015 MLB debut likely.

Updated 11-23-2012 at 10:10 AM by mnfanforlife

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  1. John Bonnes's Avatar
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    I don't have any inside information on this, but I wouldn't be shocked to see Arcia start the year in AA and I think Berrios will not be in a full season league next year - at least not to start the season.
  2. righty8383's Avatar
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    It would be ridiculous for Arcia to start in AA. If that happens I will be more willing to submit to those who accuse the Twins of being far too conservative with prospects. Honestly, there is absolutely nothing for him to prove in AA.

    Also, to the author of this blog, our midwest league affiliate is Cedar Rapids, not Quad Cities.
  3. Physics Guy's Avatar
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    Absolutely nothing more to prove in AA? 69 games in AA is a pretty small sample size and he was a 21 year old in a league whose players have a median age of 24. I'd say starting in AA is reasonable with a promotion in May or early June. In another thread I had him projected as a starting OF for the Twins in 2014. I think that may be a bit aggressive. I could see him following a path similar to Cuddyer who had just over 100 AB with the Twins in both his 23 and 24 year old season and a semi-regular at 25. Cuddyer may have accelerated that a bit had he been moved to OF earlier.
  4. johnnydakota's Avatar
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    personally, id love to see the reincarnation of rice and lynn in the twins outfield in 2014,
    as for berrios, give him 5 starts look at his record his games his mistakes his confidence and if warrented move him up, remember if griffey jr. was a twin he probally wouldnt make the show till he was 24-25years old , time for new blood and new thinking
  5. righty8383's Avatar
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    69 games is NOT a small sample size for the minor leagues.
  6. mnfanforlife's Avatar
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    Thanks for the corrections! I agree Berrios needs the opportunity to move multiple levels next year, wherever he starts. Yes, the Twins will never bring up a Mike-Trout type of talent before they turn 20, or 23 for that matter. Arcia should start in AAA, or in MLB in my opinion. But a start in AA seems redundant here. Many mistakes this front office has made recently. And "not moving up impact MLB players" is probably a mistake that is easy to hide.
  7. mnfanforlife's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Physics Guy
    Absolutely nothing more to prove in AA? 69 games in AA is a pretty small sample size and he was a 21 year old in a league whose players have a median age of 24. I'd say starting in AA is reasonable with a promotion in May or early June. In another thread I had him projected as a starting OF for the Twins in 2014. I think that may be a bit aggressive. I could see him following a path similar to Cuddyer who had just over 100 AB with the Twins in both his 23 and 24 year old season and a semi-regular at 25. Cuddyer may have accelerated that a bit had he been moved to OF earlier.
    There is nothing wrong with being aggressive and moving young players up multiple levels in one year. Many of the best prospects in baseball are kept in the minors strictly for financial reasons (so the club can save money in the long run). This strategy works for some prospects and hurts the organization in some cases. The club needs to identify certain players that need to be pushed up to the top, and then have the cajones to actually "DO IT."
  8. John Bonnes's Avatar
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    Re: Arcia - I can see both sides. I wonder what he's doing this winter, and if that will play into the decision. If you read the interview with Terry Ryan, he sure seemed to suggest that they feel like they've moved him up pretty fast recently and seemed to be wondering if starting him at AAA was moving him too fast.

    One thing that might play into the decision is that there isn't necessarily a good reason to move him up there if he's going to need to sit there waiting all season. There is already a logjam, though I hope that will be cleared with a trade this offsesason. But I suspect they think Hicks is next in line, and then Arcia. That's not necessarily a reason to not promote him to AAA, but it does relax the urgency of moving him up the ladder.
  9. mnfanforlife's Avatar
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    Arcia looks to be struggling a bit in the Venezuelan league. But I still opine that he should start in AAA with a real shot at playing for Minnesota at some point in 2013. A trade of Span and/or Willingham would speed things up, but wouldn't guarantee Arcia getting a cup-o-coffee in 2013
  10. lightfoot789's Avatar
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    Who are the people in AAA that are ahead of Arcia? That would make the most sense by the Twins management in holding him back if they already have guys they want to see in AAA. There is no early season fuss to rush these guys. We are going to be good because of, off season trades, or we are going to be good (division contenders) in 2014, because of appropriate play development throughout the minors. Either way haste makes waste. Lets be good for the latter part of decade and trust managements organizational gameplan.
  11. mnfanforlife's Avatar
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    But if we just trust trust trust, then we'd have nothing to talk about. jk
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