2013 Blueprint, Part One: Overview
by, 09-28-2012 at 01:03 AM (1281 Views)
This is the first part of four parts of my 2013 Twins blueprint. The following is an overview of the roster. Part two will focus on the pitchers, part three on the position players, and part four will be centered around both contingency plans for 2013 and looking toward the future beyond 2013.
Last year, I actually put out three versions of a 2012 blueprint depending on payroll (110, 105, 100) and I was right about a few things. Jamey Carroll and Ryan Doumit were added, and I even had Scott Diamond as a fifth starter in one of them.
With regard to 2013, I have done a considerable amount of thinking and re-thinking. I had thought for some time that the Twins should trade Morneau for either two varying level prospects or one prospect and one MLB-ready pitcher. It is good to be constantly critical of one's perspective and to re-evaluate one's ideas. So, I have decided that the Twins best bet for 2013 and 2014-on is to not trade anybody in the offseason, instead signing two FA starting pitchers and maximizing the depth of the lineup and bench.
What this means for 2013 is a roster that looks like this, barring injury:
Scott Diamond (awarded opening day, on principle)
Sam Deduno (with LR Cole DeVries, Rochester's Kyle Gibson, PJ Walters, Esmerling Vasquez, and David Bromberg on call, and the DL-ed Scott Baker as well--more on all of this in part two)
Anthony Slama (Deolis Guerra gets passed through waivers)
This roster, including the arbitration guesses and the 3 year, $30 million contracts given to Jackson and Marcum, comes in at somewhere around $96 million (and this includes paying Nishioka and Blackburn). In other words, the Twins could have this team for the same cost as what the 2012 team was supposed to cost before certain releases and trades. There was a lot of money tied up in Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Jason Marquis, and Matt Capps, making about 30% of the payroll dead weight.
My 2013 roster removes the dead weight. The idea is to keep the best players and add good players to replace bad or mediocre players. This means what I refer to as a "Thome bench" and a "2006 quality rotation." Having a bench that always includes an impact bat is a vital thing for all good teams. That extra player either fills in for injured players or becomes the pinch hitter needed in close games. This would be Parmelee at the very beginning of the season, but would rotate between Mauer, Morneau, Willingham, Doumit, Span, and Revere as well. Having "too much" is a good thing.
I do not mean that a Johan Santana is being added, but bringing in Jackson and Marcum means bolstering the rotation in a strong way. There is no messing around with this kind of talent. They are better than everyone other than the 2012 Scott Diamond and glimpses of Scott Baker. The cost to add both is not bad at all and, again, this team costs just as much as the planned 2012 Twins team.
In part two I will address the pitching staff in detail.