This is the first part in a series examining the Twins system, position-by-position in order to get both a near and long-term perspective of Twins' system. With regard to first base, there are a number of question marks, certainly, but it also seems to be the case that there is some hope both in the near future and definitely down the road.

Let's go from top to bottom, starting with the Twins:

Minnesota:

Justin Morneau: LH, DOB: 5-15-81. STATS: .296/.340/.415 (.755), 10 doubles/0 triples/2 homers, 10 bb-22 k, 0-0 sb-cs.

Morneau is in the final year of his contract and will have about $4 million left on his contract at the trade deadline. But I would not count those chickens before they hatch. The Twins may see Morneau as an integral part of the near future which will see some key prospects start to bloom. His injury history may give pause, but there is no doubt that he is starting to really come on this season and is a different player. He is really producing with RISP right now and the lack of homer power shouldn't be a cause for concern. Of course, the expected improvement coming for the rest of the season both makes his resigning with the Twins and his being traded more probable. There is the potential option of trading Morneau for some top 100-200 prospect at the deadline and then signing him in the offseason. That would be potentially ideal, especially given the Chris Parmelee situation.


Chris Parmelee: LH, DOB: 2/24/1988. STATS: .214/.301/.337 (.638), 3/0/3, 11-28, 1-1.

Parmelee has been in RF this year and has been a competent defender out there. People seem to assume that Parmelee is the heir-apparent to Morneau's position, but Parmelee is certainly not really built like a first baseman and may have a future as a platoon player or bench bat. He was dominant in AAA last year and I do believe that he is a competent player, but so was Ron Coomer. Parmelee is a player who I view as having no real long-term future with the Twins and he if does have such a future than it is likely a bad sign for the development of many prospects in the system who would have to basically flame out in order to cement Parmelee on the Twins roster. This isn't a knock on him, but just the reality of the potential future for the Twins. I would like to see Parmelee succeed this year to the point that some team will like his ability enough to trade some mid-level prospect for him.


Rochester:

Chris Colabello: RH, DOB: 10/24/83. STATS: .326/.384/.574 (.958), 11/0/8, 14-32, 0-1.

Colabello is a great story of perseverance, but that is also means that he is in his prime right now. This means he should be looked upon as the next guy to be "a bench bat" if the Twins decide to go with a 11-man pitching staff or if Wilkin Ramirez or someone like Morneau, Parmelee, or Arcia go to the DL. He is almost certainly guaranteed a September spot on the roster at the very least. He has proved all he need to in order to earn a chance. The Twins will be looking to use him as soon as possible.

Jeff Clement: LH, DOB: 8/21/1983. STATS: .179/.243/.255 (.498), 2/0/2, 9-26, 0-0.

Clement may be on his last leg as a contending major league baseball player. On paper he looks like he could be a contributor, but then he plays and it all goes south. Only a series of injuries to two of the three players above him could change his status as AAA-filler. And AAA-filler is not something I particularly like, especially when it is obvious that many prospects could use some AAA time.

Nathan Hanson: RH, DOB: 2/8/87. STATS (AA/AAA): .287/.368/.406 (.773), 3/0/3, 11-18, 0-0.

Hanson has dramatically improved his performance over the rest of his minor league career this year. While he has not been in position to play first base this year, this is the place where he has played the most in his minor league career. He is a potential super-utility option as he has played 3B, 2B, 1B, and LF in significant doses. He is someone to watch as a Chanhassen native looking to crack the big leagues . . . as a better version of Brian Dinkelman.


New Britain:

Reynaldo Rodriguez:, RH, DOB: 2-7-86. STATS: .217/.315./.453 (.767), 9/2/4, 15-27, 2-1.

Rodriguez is true organizational filler, and Deibinson Romero is coming to encroach on his time anyway. This spot in New Britain is a temporary placeholder for a prospect from Fort Myers, most likely Kennys Vargas.


Fort Myers:

Kennys Vargas: SH, DOB: 8-1-90. STATS: .271/.354/.496 (.850), 9/1/6, 16-31, 0-0.

Vargas is almost a luxury. He is a power hitter with massive potential. His ISO numbers for 2013 are pretty much right between his fantastic 2012 season and his good 2011 season. He can certainly hit and seems to be a competent defensive first baseman right now. He's a career .890 OPS guy and is someone to watch the rest of the season and next season. If he continues to produce like this, the Twins are going to have a lot of positional and roster decisions to make.

Lance Ray: LH, DOB: 9-2-89. STATS: .206/.276/.265 (.541), 4/0/0, 7-12, 1-1.

Ray has been injured this year and this accounts for some of his struggles. He has been a decent player in the minors, but nothing too overwhelm. The rest of 2013 in Fort Myers is important for him as his development may either stagnate or warrant continued development in the system. His ability to play both corner OF positions and first base is an asset.

Michael Gonzales: LH, DOB: 6-16-88. STATS: .238/.338/.476 (.814), 1/1/4, 10-17, 0-0.

The big first baseman is injured, but his OPS has jumped 100 points in his second go-around with Fort Myers so far. He is another guy with good power and whose 2013 is a very important season. A healthy rest of the season is going to be vital for his development. I would like to see him see AA pitching this year.


Drew Leachman: RH, DOB: 4-21-89. STATS: .239/.288/.284 (572), 1/1/0, 4-9, 1-1.

Leachman was promoted to Fort Myers after a solid start at Cedar Rapids. He is very similar to Lance Ray, but with less power. He can play the corner OF positions along with 1B. He probably will remain in Fort Myers this year to see if he can handle better pitching.


Cedar Rapids:

Dalton Hicks: LH, DOB: 4-2-90. STATS: .288/.362/.485 (.847), 11/0/5, 15-28, 0-0.

Hicks has emerged this year as a solid middle of the order hitter with good power and decent plate discipline. He is bad against lefties, but great against righties, so the sky may not be the limit for Hicks. That said, he will continue to get better and will likely pass a few of the guys above him over the next year.


EST:

Rory Rhodes: RH, DOB: 7-28-91. STATS (cumulative minor league career): .242/.328/.383 (.711), 46/7/19, 97-269, 11-11.

Rhodes was demoted from low-A back down to E-Town last year. He hit well at the latter destination and should be ready to serve as a replacement in Cedar Rapids once some of those guys get promoted. He has decent power, but strikes out an awful lot. He is still pretty young, though, and may simply have issues with the fact that he is 6'9" and a bit lanky. I imagine long swings may be an issue.

Bryan Haar: RH, DOB: 12-9-89. STATS (2012): .250/.319/.345 (.664), 9/1/1, 13-35, 3-3.

Haar was drafted in the 34th round last year and did not put up very strong numbers. He is receiving instruction right now and should be headed to E-Town once that season starts. He is definitely in a make or break season at age 23 in rookie ball.


Conclusion

The Twins are better stocked at this position than they have been in the recent past. Players like Colabello, Vargas, and Hicks have created nice depth at this position across the board. I have toyed with the idea that the Twins should try to trade both Morneau and Parmelee since there is good value in the former and no real Twins future with the latter. Certainly there could be a movement up for many of these players this year.

I am not sure many really expected all of this.

The Twins are now 8-7 and have won four games in a row. This is while starting without their best 2012 starting pitcher for nine games, with Vance Worley being bad until his fourth start, with a horribly struggling rookie in Aaron Hicks, with Justin Morneau at even sub-2012 levels of production, with Ryan Doumit struggling, with . . . . well you get the idea.

The fact that the Twins are over .500 is surprising when you consider that only Joe Mauer, Eduardo Escobar, Pedro Florimon, and Kevin Correia are actually performing beyond expectations right now.

So there's that--the Twins have gotten off to an above average start literally and that means a good start when looking at a potential .410 win percentage for the year.

To make things better, there is enormous good news in the minors. While Kyle Gibson has been fairly bad and has pitched too many innings per start if he is on an overall innings limit, Alex Meyer and Trevor May have looked good. When Gibson gets it going and when Meyer and May progress further, the Twins suddenly have legitimate options at starting pitcher. Drafting a lefty starting star (Manaea) would add immensely to the 2015 season.

Meyer has struck out 19 in 16 innings and he is giving up more hits then he is accustomed to, but he is moving right along towards a September call-up.

May is going to struggle at times, but he is also going to make B.J. Hermsen out to be a non-prospect (no offense, but Hermsen does not throw a pitch--currently--for a strikeout).

Offensively, it seems that Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and Eddie Rosario are too big for where they are at. There is zero reason for the Twins not to promote Buxton to Fort Myers immediately (and Angel Morales can get a true make it or break it season at AA). Sano and Rosario should remain until about June to be promoted to AA and then we can see the experiment really begin (Sano at third, Rosario at second).

Buxton has produced a .415/.523/.642 line in 15 games. Buxton has two of every extra base hit while Sano has a slash of .375/.438/.734 and Rosario brings in a .352/.385/.507 slash. Rosario has no errors so far, and that is a good sign for the biggest positional question in the system. Sano can move to first, Buxton can be the CF, moving Hicks to RF, and Rosario as a second baseman makes the team strong at a position that has been a debacle since Chuck Knoblauch.

D.J. Baxendale is the great honorable mention right now. As will be Michael Tonkin, A.J. Achter, and Jose Berrios. Baxendale, in particular, is notable for his success as a starter this year.

This is all a sign of a very good future. The 2013 team is competing for a win of the division AND the prospects are looking quite good.

This year is already different than 2012. And that is worth a lot.

Last year's crew didn't do so well overall, especially the pitchers. This year only one of the 10 players returns to the list. These are guys under the radar a bit, but could have breakout or breakthrough seasons (from bottom to top of system):

1. Dereck Rodriguez (EST, E-Town or CR): Rodriguez had a solid 2012 season when healthy. He is turning 21 in June and has been moved very cautiously in the Twins system (much like Nate Roberts). I have to imagine that he ends 2013 with Cedar Rapids, especially if Buxton and/or Kepler are promoted to Fort Myers. Rodriguez needs to cut out the strike outs to be successful.

J.D. Williams (CR): Williams is the only one to return to the list this year. After an excellent 2011 season he turned in a bad one in low-A ball in 2012. He is off to a fast start in 2013. Speaking of fast, Williams is the one guy who might be able to take Byron Buxton in a foot race. Anyway, Williams is 22.5 years old and repeating at low-A is hopefully not a year-long process. He could be one of three OF for Cedar Rapids promoted to Fort Myers this year.

Dalton Hicks (CR): The 23-year-old had a solid season in 2012 and is pounding the ball in 18 at bats this year. Could be a fast-riser and be another player challenging to make a move up to Fort Myers this season.

Michael Gonzales (FM): Speaking of Fort Myers and first base, I have been pleased with Gonzales early numbers after an OK performance in 2012. He will finish the season in New Britain, undoubtedly. He turns 25 in June and has tremendous power, but he needs to make contact.

Tom Stuifbergen (FM): Stuifbergen was a bright spot in the system a few years ago and in the 2009 WBC. He has battled injuries the past few seasons and the K/rate is falling. If he gets that back up this year, he could be ending the season in AAA. He turns 25 in September.

Daniel Ortiz (NB): Twins fans may now know who Ortiz is after this spring's extended stay with the Twins in spring training. Ortiz has been consistent in his minor league career and the Twins have rewarded him with promotions. He really probably has fourth outfielder potential, but he can play all three positions out there and could develop some pop. In any event, he has more upside than Boggs, Ramirez, and Mastroianni.

A.J. Achter (NB): Achter put up ridiculous numbers in 2012 in Fort Myers. He may be less well-known than Michael Tonkin, but he should rise with Tonkin in the system this year. He is part of a class of relievers (Tonkin, Watts, Pugh, Thielbar) who will challenge for spots in the bullpen this year and next.

Dakota Watts (NB): Watts was solid in 2012 and in winter ball. He has some good velocity and will be knocking on the door this year for a promotion to AAA after he gets off the DL. He could likely be in the bullpen for the Twins in 2014.

Bruce Pugh (R): Pugh was great in 2012 and will be up with the Twins at some point in 2013. He whiffs a lot of batters and could be a viable setup man down the road.

Andrew Albers (R): Albers is the elder statesman of this group and I hope he gets a chance to make the big leagues soon. He is a crafty, command lefty who has been very good the past two seasons in the system. Likely long relief down the road. I wanted him to pair with Gibson too keep Gibson's inning load down, but Albers was forced into the rotation.

It is time to return to an analysis of the farm system in terms of how prospects by position are moving up, moving down, appearing, disappearing, or reappearing on this year's list.

This is an attempt to gauge the overall status of the system from year to year and entails, indirectly, an analysis of the 2012 draft, but also the development of players still in the system and the emergence of talent up into the big leagues.

I used the 2012 compilation list from myself, Seth Stohs, and Twinkie Town. For 2013, I stuck with my list, in part because both of the other lists, as well as Gleeman's list, are pretty similar to mine anyway. In fact they tend to exactly embellish--perhaps appropriately--the main conclusion of this analysis anyway.

In sum, the results are not that dramatic. By position, a simple way to view the prospect list movement between 2012 and 2013 is as follows:

OF: even
C: even
1B: even
2B: even (lower number resulting from Dozier moving to the Twins)
3B: slightly downward (this with Sano and Harrison still candidates)
SS: slightly upward
RHS: upward
RHR: upward
LHS: downward
LHR: even

This projects to be an overall improvement in the system, and I have been conservative in the impact, to some degree, in three areas: 1) right-handed pitching may be vastly improved as only 2013 can tell, 2) Danny Santana and Niko Goodrum both staying at SS could be huge, 3) Sano *or* Harrison staying at third creates much more balance.

Methodology: I analyzed the list by tiers: top 5, 15, 25, 35, and 50 and then counted the number of prospects at each tier by position.

Right-handed starters has supplanted outfielders as appearing the most on the list in the top 50, though outfielders are still very well represented. RHS also appear most in the top 35 and top 25 as well. This might not be so surprising given the last two drafts, but keep in mind that people like Manuel Soliman, Adrian Salcedo, and Alex Wimmers have plummeted in the meantime.

The system stagnated a bit at catcher, first base, and second base. Herrmann and Pinto are the only clear prospects at the catcher position, Dalton Hicks needs to establish himself this year to be a full-fledged prospect and Chris Colabello is aging, and finally, only Eddie Rosario makes the second base spot bright.

The big problem spots are in left-handed pitching (especially starters), 3B (really a big problem if neither Sano nor Harrison stay there), and catching (especially if neither Matt Koch nor Danny Rohlfing develop quickly).

There will be a mid-season update on the system as the 2013 year plays out and how the June draft affects everything.

Here it goes:

Hicks, CF
Mauer, C
Willingham, LF
Morneau, 1B
Doumit, DH
Plouffe, 3B
Parmelee, RF
Dozier, 2B
Florimon, SS

Bench: Carroll, Escobar, Boggs, Ramirez/Colabello

Note: I don't care about Dozier and Florimon at the bottom (Carroll will fill in), I like a Hicks-Mauer-Willingham first inning a great deal.

Worley
Pelfrey
Hendriks
Correia
DeVries

(Diamond DL)

Pressley
Slama
Robertson
Fien
Duensing
Burton
Perkins

(Swarzak DL, Guerra DL)

I like this rotation with Diamond sliding in for DeVries, but with DeVries and Deduno knocking at the door.

I like this bullpen with Watts, Pugh, Albers, and eventually Oliveros and Guerra waiting.

This concludes my 1-60 prospect list in depth. I hope it is helpful for everyone to get a grasp of the depth of the system and to help in formulating one's own top 20 or 30 prospects lists.

Note: yes, neither Randy Rosario nor Anthony Slama appear in this top 60, and for entirely different reasons. Rosario needs to have a good 2013, and Slama appears to be done in the system, or it doesn't even matter to include him anywhere.

Also, note: I am going to analyze the prospect movement trends from 2012 to 2013 in an upcoming blog. It will not be as cumbersome as the 2011 to 2012 version. I think it will be fairly illuminating, so stay tuned.



5. Alex Meyer (DOB: 1-3-90), RH starter: Meyer was the return that the Nationals sent over for Denard Span. Meyer is 6’ 9” and throws in the mid-upper 90s with a fantastic slider. He was the 23^rd overall pick in the 2011 draft. He pitched 129 innings last year between low and high-A ball. After the promotion, he compiled a 2.31 ERA with 32 strikeouts and 11 walks in 39 innings. His H/9 dropped minimally, but his walk rate dropped by a quarter, so that might make up for his K/9 drop in the move. Meyer is ranked as the 59^th best prospect by Baseball America and 40^th by MLB.com (after it ranked him 83^rd going in to last season). Meyer was a beast in high school and the Red Sox drafted him in the 20^th round in 2008, but he opted to go to Kentucky which increased his stock immensely. Meyer and Gibson really could give the 1-2 punch the Twins need going forward, but Meyer is going to take a bit of time still. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: 2014-2015.

4. Byron Buxton (DOB: 12-18-93), RH center fielder: The Twins took Buxton with the second pick in the 2012 draft because his tools are off the charts (speed, arm, defense) or great (average, power). He performed well in the Gulf Coast League even though he struck out a lot and did not hit for average. The key was that he found his power against some fresh-out-of-high-school pitching. He was promoted to Elizabethon and actually improved. The slugging dropped, but his average and OBP climbed and he ended with a combined .792 OPS in his first season of pro baseball as an 18-year-old. My placement at the fourth spot on this list is almost certainly as low as he is on any Twins prospect list. This is simply due to the three ahead of him and the fact that I want to see more plate appearances from Buxton. When Sano was signed, I thought of him in the 3^rd spot back then. The Twins are going to be patient from here on out with him, but they very smartly broke character and are moving him up from the very low levels to the middle quickly. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: September 2015-September 2016.

3. Oswaldo Arcia (DOB: 5-9-91), LH right fielder: Arcia is another player who the Twins have been smart about in pushing him through the system. He went ballistic in 2010 in Elizabethon, posting a 1.096 OPS. He followed that up with a combined .866 OPS in 2011 where he faced high-A pitching for almost ¾ of the season. In 2012, Arcia started out much better in Fort Myers than where he ended it in 2011 and had a great second half with New Britain. There he had a .328/.398/.557 (.955) slash with 20 doubles, 5 triples, and 10 homers in 299 plate appearances. Those numbers are obviously excellent and he should, in my view, serve as a example for how certain high prospects should be treated by the Twins. That is, players should be promoted in season instead of playing a whole season at one stop. This way players may be a bit over their heads like Arcia was in 2011 in Fort Myers, but they get the taste of the level and can dominate like Arcia did the next year. Arcia is comparable to Jason Kubel pre-injury, so that means that would project him out to be an actual outfielder with an impressive bat who can turn some singles into doubles and doubles into triples. Expected start: short time in New Britain first. ETA: September 2013-2014.

2. Aaron Hicks (DOB: 10-2-89), SH center field: People started to scoff at my pre-2012 ranking of Hicks as my number two prospect. That’s fine, and certainly he would have dropped if he would not have been so good in 2012. His .844 OPS comes with MLB-ready defense in center field. That is something remarkable in itself, but both his power numbers and his stolen bases went up significantly in 2012. Hicks strikes out a lot, but he also walks a lot and that is something that isn’t going to go away since plate discipline doesn’t just disappear. It’s an advanced skill and that is one big reason (coupled with the defense) that made it impossible for me to move Hicks down the prospect list for the past three seasons. Hicks has been up and down, and some of that I blame on the Twins organization, but there is consistent improvement along the way. His bat is not fully ready, but with the trading of Span and Revere, the door was opened for Hicks to step in. And after all has been said and done, I think he will step in right out of the gates in 2013. Expected start: Minnesota. ETA: 2013, even if he doesn’t start out the season with the Twins.

1. Miguel Sano (DOB: 5-11-93), RH third baseman: Sano has more than lived up to expectations
heaped upon him as he made his move into professional baseball after a hellacious bunch of scrutiny coming out of the Dominican Republic. He has moved up national prospect lists at a consistent pace to where he is ranked 9^th by Baseball America and 12^th by MLB.com. The absolute power is there and the amount of walks he drew in 2012 was a major improvement over 2012. As he moves up, the walks might drop but that may mean he gets more pitches to annihilate, so I don’t anticipate any real drop in power numbers even while moving in the Florida State League. The question is going to be eventually about where he will end up playing defensively, but it is certainly the case that third base is his position for 2013. If he can improve there, it is a huge gain for the Twins. If he has to move elsewhere, it hardly matters. His arm is spectacular, but first base may end up being his position. He certainly is growing into the position and might be 6’ 6”, 260 when all is said and done. Think a slightly smaller Frank Thomas and you get the idea. And Sano is still very young with immense talent. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: September 2014, or June 2015.

10. Trevor May (DOB: 9-23-89), RH starter: May came over with Vance Worley in the Ben Revere trade. That trade was a steal for the Twins. Not only did they get a competent middle of the rotation guy for 2013, but they got another for 2014 or 2015 in May. There has been some talk about May’s struggles in AA in 2012 and the potential move to the bullpen. I am not at all clear as to why such nonsense has been uttered. If one actually looks at the numbers, May in 2010 at A ball was dominant. He struck out 92 and walked 20 in 65 innings with a 2.91 ERA. After being promoted to A+ in Clearwater, he kept the K rate high but basically just gave up more homers and a lot more walks. In 2011, he spent the whole year in Clearwater and was quite successful with a 3.63 ERA in 151+ innings. He struck out 208 and walked 67 that year. In 2012, he was promoted to AA and went through a stat decline which should have been suspected. He posted a 4.87 ERA in 149+ innings. He still struck out 151, but walked 78 in that time. His problem was with hits given up and especially with homers given up. He generally looks like a guy who struggles somewhat a level and then with a repeat year dominates again. I am not sure why any “reliever” talk is really in play at this point. May looks like a solid middle rotation guy with mid-90s heat, a good curve, and a good changeup. May will be an interesting pitcher to watch in 2013 and should be advanced to Rochester at some point in order for a 2014 appearance with the Twins. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: 2014-2015.

9. Max Kepler (DOB: 2-10-93), LH outfielder: Kepler’s youth is a bit scary because 2012 may have been his coming out party in that we got the chance to see what the hype surrounding this German was about. His 2010 and 2011 seasons were OK and encouraging, but the return to Elizabethon in 2012 set the stage for a dominant season for the young outfielder. In 269 plate appearances he compiled 16 doubles, 5 triples, and 10 homers on the way to a .297/.387/.539 line. The walks stayed at roughly the same rate but the strikeouts dropped significantly. Kepler is an above average defender who can play all three outfield positions (though LF is the likely route for him). The increase in slugging is a remarkable improvement and indicates that Kepler may be developing all five tools into actual skills. And this all comes at a very early age. He has the potential to be an elite major league baseball player, but I temper my enthusiasm some until he has a full season under his belt. The Twins have been patient with him early on but it is very possible that he will force the issue in 2013 and could be promoted near the end of the season. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: 2015-2016.

8. Kyle Gibson (DOB: 10-23-87), RH starter: Gibson came back from Tommy John surgery to have a chance to pitch during the season and then was sent to the Arizona Fall League where he pitched well. He was particularly dominant over his first three starts, giving up only one earned run in 13 innings pitched. He is supposedly on an innings limit of around 140 innings and since this team is not the 2012 Diamondbacks there is no reason to expand much beyond that. I personally would opt for the bulk of those innings to come with the Twins during the last 3/5 of the season, so that would mean Gibson starts either in extended spring training or in Rochester on an innings limit. I am not really sure why anyone would argue for starting Gibson in the Twins rotation in April and then have to shut him down by the beginning of September. It is certainly the case that Gibson has the potential to be a number one starter and I would think this to likely be the case starting in 2014. Expected start: Rochester. ETA: 2013.

7. Jose Berrios (DOB: 5-27-94), RH starter/reliever: The 32^nd pick in the 2012 draft was dominant in 30+ innings split between the GCL and the Appy leagues. He struck out 49 and walked only 4,with a WHIP of 0.62, which is preposterously low for an 18-year-old. Berrios would have been the top-rated pitcher in the Twins system if it weren’t for the acquisition of Alex Meyer in the Denard Span trade. Berrios is very young and it is important to temper expectations. That said, the numbers don’t lie. It will interesting to see innings limits as the Twins go forward developing Berrios. He throws mid-90s on a regular basis and his fastball moves. This year he will undoubtedly be working on his slider and changeup. It is hard to tell how fast he might move up the system. I would expect him to continue to see some time in the bullpen to keep the innings low, but he will be starting some as well. He will likely be in Cedar Rapids at some point during the season. Expected start: EST, then maybe to Elizabethon for a bit or straight to Cedar Rapids. ETA: 2016-2017.

6. Eddie Rosario (DOB: 9-28-91), LH second baseman/center fielder: Rosario’s prospect status does depend on where he is to play in the field. As a second baseman he is a legitimate top prospect, but as an outfielder he might move to around 10-12. That said, even if Rosario merely reproduces 2012 numbers at Fort Myers in 2013 it will bode extremely well for him. His slugging dropped .180 points between 2011 and 2012, but both his batting average and on-base percentage barely moved. It is perhaps the case that his homerun power will only really be doubles power going forward, but as a second baseman that can be lived with pretty easily. The key is going to be getting acclimated to second base and he was more comfortable at the position later on in 2012. This year is vital for his development as an all-around potential strong regular. People may overlooking the fact that he still did hit 12 homers in 429 plate appearances, many of them after returning from injury. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: 2015-2016.

This is the sixth part of my detailed prospect list. These five are impressive in various ways with power, plate discipline, and speed that makes the Twins offensive prowess in the system start to seem pretty impressive before even cracking the top 10.

15. Adam Walker (DOB: 10-18-91), RH right fielder: Walker’s .250/.310/.496 line at Elizabethon is impressive, but it doesn’t overwhelm. However, he hit 14 homers, 7 doubles, and 4 triples in 254 plate appearances, continues to work hard on his defense and to lower his strikeout numbers, and is the right-handed power bat that the Twins have been sorely lacking. Coupled with Sano and Vargas, the Twins have three big bats in the system. Walker is a player to be a little patient with as he needs to work on his strikeout rate, but he still should move pretty quickly. The big outfielder was a fantastic slugger in college and didn’t drop off much in his first partial season of pro ball. I expect the power numbers to jump now that he has had increased instruction and pro ball experience under his belt. Expected start: Cedar Rapids, though he could be a potential quick jump to Fort Myers since the OF in Cedar Rapids is going to be crowded. ETA: 2015-2016.


14. Nate Roberts (DOB: 2-25-89), LH corner outfielder: Roberts has dealt with some injuries and an extremely cautious approach by the Twins in promoting him. That is until the 2012 Arizona Fall League. Roberts was great in limited time in 2010 (.336/.444/.547). In 2011 he was promoted to Beloit and posted an .889 OPS in 283 plate appearances while battling injury. In 2012 he returned to Beloit for some reason and continued to put up impressive numbers (.299/.433/.427), stealing 27 bases, walking (44) more than striking out (37) and continued his bizarre ability to get hit by pitches (23). Roberts was then sent to the Arizona Fall League, which is comprised mostly of good-very good prospects at AA and AAA. Roberts put up a 1.226 OPS in 77 plate appearances, homering three times, and swiping six bags. This dominant performance has many wondering if Roberts is a likely candidate to skip Fort Myers for New Britain to start 2013. I don’t like the idea of players skipping levels as I would rather see consistent progression from level to level. The Twins were bizarre with Roberts, however, so he may be an exception. I would probably start him for a bit at Fort Myers and then promote him to New Britain automatically a few months into the season. I think the Twins will be aggressive, though. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: 2014-2015.

13. Chris Herrmann (DOB: 11-24-87), LH catcher/left fielder: Herrmann was impressive in 2011 at New Britain where he showed great plate discipline, slugged OK, stole some places and played solid defense behind the plate and in the OF. In 2012, the Twins stuck with him at AA where he had a slight decline in production, especially early in the season when he was batting lower in the lineup and appeared to be trying to increase his power numbers. This didn’t work very well and New Britain eventually wised up and put Hicks and Herrmann at the top of the lineup with Oswaldo Arcia batting behind them. This was a good decision and Herrmann increased his production in the second half. I do think that the Twins have been rather bizarre in holding Herrmann back at AA for almost 1000 plate appearances while posting a .754 OPS. The team did not call him up to big leagues until the middle September after his AA season had been over for several days. It is a shame that terrible offensive players like Drew Butera and Rene Rivera are slowing down the development of Twins prospects and other minor league catchers who deserve more of a chance. Herrmann is not going to be an all-star and will certainly not be a regular with the Twins barring injury to Mauer or Doumit, but time is near when he can be a useful upgrade over Drew Butera and his versatility in LF (potentially RF as well) makes him a nice roster addition sooner rather than later. Expected start: Rochester. ETR (return): 2013.

12. Travis Harrison (DOB: 10-17-92), RH 3B: The Twins drafted Harrison with the 50^th pick in the 2011 draft. Harrison’s bat is, without doubt, one of the best pure hitters in the organization and he demonstrated this with a big season for Elizabethon in 2012 as a 19-year-old. In 253 plate appearances, he had 12 doubles, 4 triples, and 5 homers. He walked 24 times and struck out 51 times on his way to a .301/.383/.461 batting line. Harrison’s defense at third base was not good, but there is a chance he will improve (as even Miguel Sano has some). It is likely, though, that first base and DH are in his future down the road. I would not be surprised if Harrison is someone—if he indeed cannot stick at 3B—who the Twins will look to trade in a hitting-for-pitching prospect deal. I would not expect that in 2013, however, and it will be interesting to see how Harrison adapts to a full season of baseball. Expected start: Cedar Rapid. ETA: 2016-2017.


11. Joe Benson (DOB: 3-5-88), RH outfielder: Benson was a top five prospect in 2011 and going into 2012. The 2012 season was a disaster for the talented outfielder, however. Benson had been moving through the system with Chris Parmelee and even came up with Parmelee to the Twins in September 2011. People tend to exaggerate Benson’s struggles in September of that year (as though 70+ plate appearances are telling at all in the first place). One could not expect the .883 AA OPS to immediate translate. Benson seems to have been injured for all of 2012, but often played through injury. He struggled mightily in AAA and instead of doing the right thing and making him stick it out at AAA, the Twins actually sent him back to AA in a terrible move. Benson still is a great defender and will just have to calm down and channel his energy and emotions into being a productive player in the very near future. It is a complete mistake to write Benson off as he is only just turning 25 this coming March and the talent is still there. Benson would still be a top 8 prospect if it weren’t for the 2012 offseason trades, and the performances of Max Kepler and Jose Berrios in 2012. Expected start: Rochester. ETR (return): Benson will be back at some point in 2013 and it could be sooner than later if Aaron Hicks is not ready by mid-season. The Twins could finish 2013 with both Hicks and Benson in the outfield, and I would welcome that scenario.

The fifth installment is comprised of 5 high upside guys who could all be very good major leaguers. I guarantee that at least one of them will be very good, another will be good, and the other three will all make it to contribute in a real way (or be used in a trade).

20. Matt Hauser (DOB: 3-30-88), RH reliever/starter: Hauser has a mid 90s fastball, a sinker, a slider, and a changeup. He was great at Fort Myers in relief then started some games successfully and moved up to New Britain where he went to the bullpen again. His strikeout rate dropped in AA down to 4.5, but that was only 16 innings of work. I would expect Hauser to see some time starting again this year and I would think if he gets his strikeout rate back up over 7, it would be wise to keep him starting. Otherwise he may be a dominant pitcher out of the bullpen and would add to the great depth the Twins have there in the organization. If the walks fall even a bit, it will mean that Hauser’s ERA should stay low even if he gets hit a bit more (only 78 hits in 88 innings in 2012—and only 5 of those were homers). He may be challenging Alex Burnett soon in his middle relief role, but also could make Jared Burton expendable in 2014. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: 2014-2015.

19. Hudson Boyd (DOB: 10-18-92), RH starter: Boyd throws in the upper 90s and came into the system with good control. He has fallen on this list both because of additions at the top and because his 2012 performance was underwhelming. In 58 innings at Elizabethon, he maintained a low ERA (2.95), but struck out only 36, walked 23, and hit 5 batters. The strikeout numbers are alarming for a pitcher of his skill at Elizabethon. He is still very young, though, and the talent is there. It is possible to see him move to the bullpen at some point and that could mean a fast ascent in the system, possibly as a future closer. As a starter, he would still probably be limited to under 100 innings in 2013. He probably will get another crack at starting, but he might be in the bullpen by season’s end. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: 2015-2016 as reliever, 2016-2017 as starter.

18. Adrian Salcedo (DOB: 2-5-91), RH starter: Salcedo was fantastic through 2010 and was in the top ten of most prospect lists at that time. 2011 was a letdown, but he was still could in his first full season (135 IP, 92 strikeouts, 27 walks). 2012 brought a comebacker and a broken nose. He was limited to 30+ innings between Fort Myers and a rehab stint in the GCL. 2012 was a lost season for Salcedo like it was for Stuifbergen, Wimmer, and Soliman. His strikeout rate is dropping but another year at Fort Myers might mean an increase there. He has a low 90s fastball, a slider, and a changeup. He is still very young and was so impressive early in his professional career, so there is no reason to exaggerate the results of 2011 and 2012 at the moment. 2013 is a big year for Salcedo and he is near the top of my list of guys to watch this seaon. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: 2015-2016.

17. Niko Goodrum (DOB: 2-28-92), SH shortstop: The 2010 second round pick has been moved a bit slow early on in his professional career, but it may all be worth it if Goodrum can stick at SS or move to 3B as the next best option. He improved in 2012 in Elizabethon over his 2011 numbers there, especially with regard to plate discipline. 2011 stats: 230 plate appearances, 21 walks, 56 strikeouts, .735 OPS. 2012 stats: 269 plate appearances, 38 walks, 56 strikeouts, .768 OPS. Perhaps most importantly, his defense at short improved enough to warrant the vast majority of his time spent there during the season. If SS doesn’t work out, 3B should for the big switch-hitter. He is an overlooked but important piece to the Twins future as there is no clear total package at SS or 3B in the system right now. Goodrum represents that possibility and it hopefully 2013 is a big step forward for him. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: 2016-2017.

16. Kennys Vargas (DOB: 8-1-90), SH 1B: Vargas served his suspension (did his time) and still managed 11 homers in 186 plate appearances at Beloit. Vargas was a legitimate power prospect going into 2012, but now he is at the top of the department with Sano. A 1.030 OPS at Beloit is nothing to scoff at and he is simply not striking out at a rate that should worry anyone at all. His .318/.419/.610 slash is phenomenal at that level. A real full season this year is going to be interesting. He is the most interesting prospect to watch in my opinion because he could rise into the top 10 easily if his success continues at Fort Myers. Vargas is interesting because he would give the Twins two huge power bats in the future with Sano being the other. That makes this seem a little more like the early 80s which should inspire and create some hope for the 2015 and on Twins. If the Twins find themselves in 2015 deciding between Vargas and Sano for 1B and DH, then things are quite good. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: 2015-2016.

In the fourth installment, things start to get quite interesting with some strong upside talents and some almost tragic time-is-of-the-essence prospects in limbo.

30. Mason Melotakis (DOB: 6-28-91), LH reliever: Melotakis was moved quickly from Elizabethon to Beloit last year and didn’t miss a beat. The hard-throwing lefty (mid 90s fastball) also has a great power slider. In 17+ innings at Beloit last year he gave up only 4 earned runs, struck out 24 and walked 4. He could fly up this list and also move quickly in the Twins system. I hope the Twins push him this year immediately up instead of a return to low-A ball. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: 2015-2016.

29. Tom Stuifbergen (DOB: 9-26-88), RH starter: Stuifbergen suffered through a strange shoulder injury that limited him to 74+ innings and hampered his strikeout total dramatically (39). Bouncing back this year after the disastrous 2012 is certainly possible and he is running out of time. If things had gone well last year, he could have been a contender for a rotation spot with the Twins at some point this year. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: never or 2014-2015.

28. Jorge Polanco (DOB: 7-5-93), SH middle infielder: Polanco generated a decent amount of attention before even playing in the Twins organization and then fell off the radar some after the 2010 and 2011 seasons. His defensive ability at shortstop was heavily sought after by the Twins, though he struggled at the position in 2012 and spent most of his time over at second base. The offensive production, however, went off the charts with a 235 OPS point jump between GCL 2011 and Elizabethon 2012. And he is still 19. Polanco demonstrated some power in 2012, especially with 15 doubles in just 204 plate appearances. He doesn’t walk much, but he also doesn’t strike out much. He is definitely going to be one of my top 10 players to watch in 2013 in the system. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: 2016-2017.

27. Jason Wheeler (DOB: 10-27-90), LH starter: Wheeler was a consistent presence for the Beloit rotation, throwing 156+ innings with a 3.45 ERA. His 6.6/2.5 per nine K/BB rate doesn’t overwhelm, but he looks like a younger (and taller) version of Scott Diamond right now. I would expect a steady increase in workload and movement up the system for him. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: 2015-2016.

26. Dereck Rodriguez (DOB: 6-5-92), RH outfielder: I remain high on Rodriguez even though the Twins are moving slow with him. He doesn’t have a single plate appearance beyond the GCL, where he posted a .783 OPS in 2012. It would seem that the outfield log jam at the bottom of the system and Dereck’s plate discipline kept him in the GCL after 2011. He did improve some in that regard, but still does strike out a lot. Expected start: EST and Elizabethon with possible promotion to Beloit mid-season. ETA: 2016-2017.

25. Levi Michael (DOB: 2-9-91), SH middle infielder: 2011’s first round pick did not have a good 2012 season, but to write him off at this point would be very silly. His numbers for his first season of pro ball at a level a bit over his head are decent enough and .093 isolated discipline shows a skill that won’t go away. He should hit better (and for more power) and the real question comes down to where he will play. He played a bit more at second base in 2012, but should probably get the majority of the duties at short in Fort Myer if Danny Santana moves to New Britain. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: 2015-2016.

24. Alex Wimmers (DOB: 12-1-88), RH starter: Like Stuifbergen, Wimmers has run into terrible luck which has significantly delayed his progress. This was a guy who some thought could actually arrive in 2011 for the Twins by the end of that season, but then weird control issues ended that and 2012 brought Tommy John. The Twins let Wimmers delay surgery and the injury only got worse, so what was an early season issue became an early August surgery. He should be working his way back into the New Britain rotation for the last 2/5 of the season. Expected start: New Britain DL. ETA: never or 2014-2015.

23. B.J. Hermsen (DOB: 12-1-89), RH starter: In 139+ innings in 2012, Hermsen struck out 75 batters and walked 25. He kept his ERA to 3.22 which is in line with his career 3.21 ERA in his career. The strikeouts are dwindling, however, and this is cause for concern as he goes forward. His sinker is good and he can induce ground balls. He is another guy to really follow this year as continued success after moving to AAA should relieve at least some of the doubts I have about his ability to pitch in the majors. He will get there though and there is no reason to keep him back at New Britain. Expected start: Rochester. ETA: a big range from Sept. 2013 to Sept. 2015.

22. Danny Santana (DOB: 11-7-90), SH middle infielder: It’s a good sign to see someone move up a level and then add 68 points to his OPS. It’s even better when this is a middle infielder. Santana has a good glove, great speed, and surprising pop. His 21 doubles, 8 triples, and 9 homers in 547 plate appearances in the Florida State League are very impressive. He doesn’t walk much at all, but he cut the strikeouts down a lot in 2012 while raising his batting average 39 points. He is another guy to watch in 2013 and it will be interesting to see how middle infield time might be divided in New Britain between he and Beresford, assuming the Twins don’t make the mistake of keeping him in Fort Myers. If Santana can maintain this offensive production and fine-tune his defense, he is a promising middle infielder for the Twins soon. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: 2014-2015.

21. Josh Burris (DOB: 11-28-91), RH reliever: Burris pitched 36 innings for Elizabethon, striking out 40 and walking 21. This control issue is not strange for Burris, but that is actually an improvement from his 2011 college numbers. He can hit the mid 90s and has a good curveball. It will be interesting to see whether or not the Twins will be converting his talents and stuff towards being a starting pitcher. I would think that they might experiment some with that later in the season, but certainly have to start increasing his innings load. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: 2015-2016 as reliever, 2016-2017 as starter.

This is the third segment in my prospect list breakdown. These ten have good-to-great upside in most cases and essentially all of them are facing crucial seasons in their development, for various reasons.

40. Angel Morales (DOB: 11-24-89), RH outfielder: After the 2010 season, I placed Morales at number 5 on my prospect list. That was a bit high for him, but he certainly made the vast majority of top 10 lists. Morales spent half of 2010 in Fort Myers and has been there ever since, battling injury in 2011 and struggling 420 plate appearances to manage a .220/.310/.328 line. He is clearly stuck in a rut, but the talent is still present and he is only 23. A move up to New Britain could mean a make or break season. Aaron Hicks benefitted from the move to New Britain as did Oswaldo Arcia. Morales is very athletic and his defense is very good with a great arm. This is about the age that Hicks and Benson took off, so hopefully the same can be said for Morales after 2013. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: 2015 or 2016.

39. Manuel Soliman (DOB: 8-11-89), RH starter/reliever: Solimon was a top prospect going into the 2012 season but was sidelined with injury and had surgery to repair a torn labrum in June. He will come back slowly this year and should be ready by June. He throws in the low 90s and has a sinker as well. If the injury takes a few ticks away, he might be moved to the bullpen. That was the likely future for him anyway, but he could be very good in that role. Like Morales, 2013 is going to be a huge year for Soliman to return to form and move up this list. Expected start: Fort Myers DL. ETA: never or 2015-2016.

38. D.J. Baxendale (DOB: 12-8-90), RH reliever/starter: Baxendale doesn’t really throw hard, but still struck out 31 batters in 18+ innings between Elizabethon and Beloit. He was selected in the 10^th round of the 2012 draft and I would consider him a borderline case between the rotation and the bullpen. The Twins might want to see him as a starter, so that could be in the works for 2013. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: never or 2015-2016.

37. Matthew Summers (DOB: 8-17-89), LH starter: Summers is a guy that I thought would be shooting up this list, but he is in danger of dropping off if he doesn’t turn it around in 2013. Fresh out of college in 2011, he dominated Elizabethon. This year the K rate plummeted to 5.9, while he walked to many batters (especially in limited time at Fort Myers). He can throw hard, but that didn’t translate to strikeouts last season. He did throw almost 150 innings, so that is a good sign for 2013. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if he is in the bullpen by 2014. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: never or 2015-2016.

36. Madison Boer (DOB: 11-9-89), RH starter/reliever: Boer is another pitcher who dominated in Elizabethon in 2011 and then had a problematic season across both levels of A ball in 2012. Boer can hit the mid 90s with his fastball, but the strikeouts are not coming. His 5.4/2.6 per nine K/BB rate in 111 innings at Fort Myers is cause for concern. He also gave up 147 hits there. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: never or 2015-2016.

35. J.T. Chargois (DOB: 12-3-90), RH reliever: Chargois was great at Elizabethon, which doesn’t mean a whole lot for college pitchers. He has a mid 90s fastball and a good slider, however, and could be a fast-rising pitcher. Hopefully his 2013 season doesn’t lead me to saying the same thing about Chargois as I did about Boer and Summers. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: never or 2015-2016.

34. Angel Mata (DOB: 12-3-92), RH starter: Mata followed up an impressive 2011 with a solid 2012 at Elizabethon. He has control issues, but is young and strikes people out as well. He threw only 53+ innings, so one has to wonder about the number he will be limited to in 2013. While walking too many, he has managed to give up a very low number of hits the past two years (54 in over 90 innings) which says a lot about his stuff. That makeup reminds me a bit of Anthony Slama, but I will leave that alone for now. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: 2016-2017.

33. Michael Tonkin (DOB: 11-19-89), RH reliever: Tonkin finished the year in the Arizona Fall League and was fantastic prior to his last appearance when he gave up three earned runs in an inning. Tonkin between Beloit and Fort Myers struck out 97 batters in 69+ innings, with the K rate actually rising after his promotion to Fort Myers. He had a breakout year in 2012 and should be moving quickly up as the Twins clearly liked what they saw this year with him. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: 2014-2015.

32. Danny Ortiz (DOB: 1-5-90), LH outfielder: Ortiz has flown under the radar amidst the massive amount of outfield talent in the Twins system, but he has been consistently solid each year and can play all three outfield positions. This might project him into 4^th OF status as the offensive output is definitely not overwhelming (career .732 OPS). That said, he has displayed doubles power each year and has kept his strikeouts fairly low. He could have a breakout season in 2013 in New Britain if the Twins are smart enough to start him there. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: September 2014-September 2015.

31. Luke Bard (DOB: 11-13-90), RH reliever/starter: A lot, in my view, will depend on whether the Twins make use of Bard as a starter or reliever. The 42^nd overall pick in the draft has very good stuff with a mid 90s fastball and a fantastic slider. His stat record is so small that isn’t really worth mentioning as seven innings tells one nothing. As a starter, Bard could amount to a mid-rotation contributor. As a reliever, he could end up being a setup or closer type after the Glen Perkins era. Only time will tell. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: 2016-2017.

Here is part two of my detailed prospect list. This is where it tends to get pretty cloudy with a lot of reliever types, but these names either were or would have been in the 25-35ish range in the Twins system 2-3 years ago. That is a good sign.

50. Dakota Watts (DOB: 11-16-87), RH reliever: Watts bounced back from a rough 2011 to have a substantially better 2012 and remain on this list. He still walks to many batters and that is going to be the main issue going forward. His AA performance was good as he posted a 2.67 ERA in 33+ innings while striking out 27 and walking 16. He throws gas (mid to upper 90s), so the wildness is to be expected. The K rate has to stay where it is (or improve) or he is going to have trouble in the majors. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: 2013-2014.

Watts pitching this winter:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1fZOXKYAoCw

49. Chris Colabello (DOB: 10-24-83), RH 1B: It is hard to call a 29-year-old a prospect, but Colabello’s success in his first season in the Twins system was astounding, and includes a dominating winter performance in the Mexican League. In 228 plate appearances there, he has 17 homers and a 1.043 OPS. This coupled with his 2012 season at New Britain amounts to 790 plate appearances, 36 homers, 50 doubles, and around a .915 OPS for the entire year. His tremendous power is an enormous asset, but the clock is ticking. He is in his prime now and the Twins should take advantage of this. He is a 1B/DH type, but has experience at 3B and could serve in an emergency backup role there. I would love for Colabello to get the final bench spot on the 25-man roster, but that is unlikely. Expected start: Rochester. ETA: 2013-2014.

48. Bruce Pugh (DOB: 7-18-88), RH reliever: Pugh was pretty dominant in 2012 after a bad 2011 season. In 42 innings at New Britain, he struck out 48, walked 23, and posted a 1.50 ERA. He throws hard and has an effective slider. His K rate has stayed the same the past two years so there hasn’t been a drop off there like with many other Twins prospects. Expected start: Rochester. ETA 2013.

47. Zach Jones (DOB: 12-4-90), RH reliever: Jones threw 20 innings between Elizabethon and Beloit, striking out 34 and walking 11. He also gave up only 11 hits and one homer. He has a mid 90s fastball and a slider. He will likely remain a reliever, adding to a massive list of MR/SU/CL types in the Twins organization. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA 2015-2016.

46. Josmil Pinto (DOB: 3-31-89), RH catcher: Pinto was OK in 2011 and I started paying attention to his progress at that point. He certainly did not disappoint in 2012. He spent most of his time in Fort Myers again, this time with a .295/.361/.473 (.834) line in 393 plate appearances. He added 22 doubles and 12 homers. He was promoted to New Britain and in 52 plate appearances had a .919 OPS and a couple homers. This performance warranted Pinto’s addition to the 40-man roster. He spent a fair amount of time as the DH, but this is not because of any defensive weakness, but rather the need to keep his bat in the lineup. Could form an interesting trio in the future with Mauer and Herrmann. Expected start: New Britain. ETA 2014-2015.

45. Lester Oliveros (DOB: 5-28-88), RH reliever: Oliveros was dominant at New Britain before being promoted to Rochester. There he struck out 35 batters in 29+ innings and walked only 8. He then injured his elbow and underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of August. With minimal time in the big leagues, it is too early to rely on his major league stats to project his value. He will clearly be starting on the DL in 2013 but should be ready around mid-season. Expected start: Rochester DL. ETR (return): 2014.

44. J.D. Williams (DOB: 11-20-90), SH outfielder: Williams was excellent in 2011 at Elizabethon and fell dramatically in 2012 after moving up to Beloit. His OPS fell 220 points to .651 and he struck out an alarming 115 times in 407 plate appearances. He is a speedy outfielder who can cover a lot of ground in all three outfield positions. Both at the top of the system and toward the bottom, the outfield is crowded. With Max Kepler, Byron Buxton, Adam Walker, and others looking toward A ball this year, it isn’t clear if Williams will be at Cedar Rapids or pushed forward out of the need for playing time. Expected start: Cedar Rapids (if Buxton doesn’t start there), Fort Myers (if Buxton starts at Cedar Rapids). ETA: never or 2016-2017.

43. Corey Williams (DOB: 7-4-90), LH reliever: Williams was solid in his first full year of professional baseball. He posted a 3.47 ERA in 62+ innings while fanning 68 and walking 33. The high walk total accounted for a high WHIP (1.412) and the higher ERA. He has a solid low to mid 90s fastball, changeup, cutter, and slider, which may lead to a conversion to the rotation at some point. He is likely to move quickly as a talented lefty with 3-4 pitches. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: 2015-2016.

42. A.J. Achter (DOB: 8-27-88), RH reliever: Achter totally dominated low A and high A ball in 2012, ending with a 0.79 ERA in 34+ innings at Fort Myers. There he struck out 37 and walked only 3, giving up no homers. The move to the bullpen was enormously helpful for him and she should rise up this list and the system quickly, which is pretty good for someone drafted in the 46^th round in 2010. He is a bit of a late bloomer, so this season will be crucial for him. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: 2014-2015.

41. Ryan Pressly (DOB: 12-15-88), RH starter/reliever: Pressly was selected by the Twins in the Rule 5 draft from Boston. He struggled some in 2010 and 2011, started out struggling in 2012 in high A ball, but did improve after being promoted to AA. The hard-thrower struck out 21 in 27+ innings while walking 10. This is certainly a reach, but I would rather the Twins give Pressly a long relief spot and trade away Anthony Swarzak in some package for a low level pitcher with a modicum of upside. Swarzak’s time is done and Pressly is a younger option who still has room for development. Expected start: either sent back to Boston or sent to the minors after the Twins work out a trade. ETA: never or 2014-2015.

This is the first in a series of blog posts breaking down my top 60 Twins prospects. I realized that I had omitted Ryan Pressly and Zach Jones from my initial list, so they will make it into the series now. Overall the system has improved dramatically in the past two years, both at the top and with respect to depth.

Honorable Mention: Matthew Koch, Bobby Lanigan, Tyler Grimes

HM: Matthew Koch: After an inconsequential 2011, Koch started out of the gates hot in the first half of his season and then cooled off. He ended with a .253/.349/.421 (.770) line and hit 8 homers in 359 plate appearances. He also struck out 106 times and that was the major cause of his fall in the second half. If he can regain some of that offensive prowess displayed early and cut down on the whiffs, he could rise up the list. He just turned 24, however, so the clock is ticking. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: never or 2015-16.

HM: Bobby Lanigan: Lanigan is falling off the prospect map and 2013 might be his last chance to turn his career around. In 225+ inning in AA, he has a 4.51 ERA and 5.8/2.2 per nine K/BB rate. AAA was significantly worse for him in 2012. He’ll be 26 in May. Expected start: Rochester. ETA: never or 2013-2014.

HM: Tyler Grimes: Grimes was successful in his first partial year in professional baseball in 2011, but repeating Beloit in 2012 got him nowhere. In 222 more plate appearances, his OPS dropped 69 points. His defense at shortstop also went south in 2012 so he might be moving to 2B or 3B, which could help his chances if he can start hitting again and he has a bit of time (turns 23 in July). Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: never or 2015-2016.

60. Logan Darnell (DOB: 2-2-89), LH starter: Darnell struggled at New Britain in 2012, posting a 5.08 in 156 innings with a 5.7/2.7 per nine K/BB rate. His fastball tops out in the low 90s and he has a decent changeup. He very well could end up moving to the bullpen, but for now will likely stick as a starter for 2013. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: never or 2014-2015.

59. Tyler Jones (DOB: 9-5-89), RH starter: Jones had a fairly impressive 2012 year at Beloit. He gives up too many hits and walks too many (1.442 WHIP), but struck out 102 in 86+ innings. His fastball tops out in the mid 90s and he will need to work on his secondary pitches (slider, changeup) to improve. He is someone I may consider as a 2013 breakout candidate and he could move up this prospect list very quickly. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: never or 2015-2016.

58. Romy Jimenez (DOB: 5-14-91), RH outfielder: After spending the vast majority of his time in the organization in the DSL, Jimenez burst on the scene in 2012 in Elizabethon. In 139 plate appearances he posted a 1.108 OPS, with 12 doubles, 8 homers, and 19 walks (vs. 25 strikeouts). The outfield depth chart is obviously crowded in the organization, but Jimenez could hold his own in his first full season. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: never or 2016-2017.

57. Pedro Hernandez (DOB: 4-12-89), LH starter: Hernandez came over in the Francisco Liriano trade and has a bit of promise. I am potentially undervaluing him, but the falling K rate 10.2, 8.4, 8.3, 7.0, 6.5, 6.0 at each successive level in the minors worries me. That said, he does not walk many hitters and has solid command of multiple pitches (fastball, sinker, changeup). Might be the left-handed version of Liam Hendriks. His fastball hits the low 90s, so command is going to be vital for the lefty going forward and his stock may rise dramatically by mid-season. Expected start: Rochester. ETA: 2013-2014.

56. Taylor Rogers (DOB: 12-17-90), LH starter/reliever: Drafted in the 11^th round in 2012, Rogers pitched at two levels, finishing well in Beloit. Splitting time as a starter and reliever, he pitched 33+ innings, striking out 35 and walking 12. With a high 80s-low 90s fastball, his secondary pitches (curveball, changeup) are going to need to continue to be effective if he is too remain a starter. A solid pitcher, all-around, he is very unlikely to be a bust. Expected start: Cedar Rapids or Fort Myers. ETA: 2015-2016.

55. Pat Dean (DOB: 5-25-89), LH starter: Dean uses a low 90s fastball mixed in with good secondary pitches (curveball, changeup) to maintain solid, though not overpowering numbers as a left-handed starter. The strikeout rate has fallen off a cliff but he also keeps the walks pretty low. I am skeptical of continued success as he moves up, but he could wind up (for better or worse) being the left-handed BJ Hermsen. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: Never or 2014-2015.

54. Deolis Guerra (DOB: 4-17-89), RH reliever: Early in 2012 it looked like Guerra’s move to the bullpen was entirely successful and that he might be on a fast track to the Twins bullpen. He dominated at AA but ended the season struggling in Rochester, posting a 4.87 ERA in 57+ innings of work there. The K rate is still impressive and if he can keep the walks low, Guerra should find success in AAA this year. Given that the Twins bullpen could regress with the likes of Alex Burnett and Anthony Swarzak (and even Casey Fien), we may see Guerra with the Twins at some point this year. Expected start: Rochester: ETA: 2013-2014.

53. Tim Shibuya (DOB: 9-14-89), RH starter: After a successful 2011 in rookie ball, Shibuya regressed significantly in 2013 and his season was cut short due to injury. His average stuff did not translate with the move up, but perhaps he can come back with a solid performance at low-A ball this year after the injury. His 6.8/1.8 per nine K/BB numbers are good enough if he can maintain the ratio going forward. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: never or 2015-2016.

52. James Beresford (DOB: 1-19-89), LH middle infielder: Beresford’s drop on this list has less to do with his performance and more to do with the depth of the list and the last two drafts for the Twins. In fact, Beresford performed slightly better with the move up to AA in 2012, raising his OPS 17 points, mostly the result of a bit of increased pop (which is a very welcomed sign). He split time pretty evenly between shortstop and second base and may do the same this year. He is very good defensively. His .266/.330/.314 line is something to build off of for 2013. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: 2013-2014.

51. Tyler Duffey (DOB: 12-27-90), RH reliever: Duffey dominated Elizabethon in 2012 after the Twins drafted him in the 5^th round. He struck out 27 and walked 2 in 19 innings of work. He throws in the low 90s and has a good slider. I would expect him to remain in the bullpen. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: never or 2015-2016.

There is strangely now much more uncertainty about the 2013 roster than there was for 2012. A little over a month ago it seemed like things were clear-cut. There was a 50/50 chance that Span would be traded, but otherwise it looked like much of the 25-man roster was pretty clear.

In the past few weeks, the Twins have traded Span (for prospect Alex Meyer), traded Ben Revere for Vance Worley (and prospect Trevor May), signed Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey and Rich Harden, and selected Ryan Pressly in the rule 5 draft. This a four-person shakeup of the roster, but the loss of Span and Revere creates further question marks. There are then three big areas of doubt for the roster, and in rather tragic-comic fashion they are starting pitching, the outfield, and middle infield.

Starting rotation

Scott Diamond and Vance Worley are clear locks at the top of the rotation. Whether or not they should be at the top of any rotation is another matter, but a charitable view is that one could legitimately hold down the second spot and the other a third spot on a competitive team. We can all wait and see if the Twins add Shaun Marcum to make the front three fully legitimate. After those two, it would seem obvious that Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey are next in line, given that they are making $4.5 and $4 million in 2013, respectively. Since Nick Blackburn is making $5.5 million as well, that might mean that Nick rounds out the rotation. That's an expensive 3-5 part of the rotation given that they would all seem to be 5th or spot starters. Aside from this, Liam Hendriks would seem to be next in line since he is the only prospect totally ready. He struggled mightily in 2012, but he was substantially better in the last two months. He is also someone who is smart about pitching and has good enough stuff to adapt adequately. Then there is the most recent addition, Rich Harden, who is a walking injury and is coming off rotator cuff surgery. If healthy for 100 innings this year, Harden should be pretty valuable.

After Harden, it is a mess of pitchers: Cole DeVries, Sam Deduno, and PJ Walters, who all served time with the Twins in 2012. The first two were decent enough as fifth starters, and Walters showed glimpses of that capability as well.

Then there is Kyle Gibson, who is going to be facing limited innings. He is very likely going to be limited to the 140-150 range. It doesn't make sense to start the season with him as a starter in that case.

The Twins may base their decision around the $14 million given to their fifth starters and start the season with those pitchers at 3-5 in the rotation. Attrition might hit one of them and Hendriks does not return to AAA but rather to the Twins. Attrition could hit two of them and Hendriks and Harden/Deduno/DeVries/Walters are a part of the starting five. What the Twins should not resort to is bringing Brian Duensing or Anthony Swarzak into the rotation. Duensing is very valuable as a lefty specialist out of the bullpen, and Swarzak is bad as a starter and marginally adequate as a long reliever.

The Twins may be signing Freddy Garcia in the next few days. Nothing really changes above, except added frustration at wasting money on 5th-starter ceiling pitchers.

The Outfield

Josh Willingham is the lock in left field barring any sudden trade in the remainder of the offseason. And I think it is a good idea to not trade him yet, as his power numbers shouldn't fall off too much in 2013 and his trade value goes up, especially around the deadline. Darin Mastroianni and Chris Parmelee may round out the starting OF and this means a below-average OF defensively which is a stark contrast from the 2012 team. However, Mastroianni was the 4th OF, and if he starts the Twins would need to add somebody to serve in that bench role.

Aaron Hicks is drawing attention as a potential CF instead of Mastroianni and he deserves this attention. He has been ready defensively for MLB for a few years and his bat is developing. He is still young and could obviously use AAA seasoning.

Joe Benson would have been an obvious choice for this CF position, but the 2012 season was a debacle for the talented prospect. He dealt with an injury and needs time at Rochester to get it together.

An overlooked possibility is for the Twins to start Mastroianni at CF and simply call-up Wilkin Ramirez to be the 4th OF. Ramirez didn't play any CF in 2012, but played there a bit in 2011 and a lot in 2010 when he split time between the minor league AAA Atlanta and Detroit affiliates. This would mean not spending money on a washed-up veteran and rewarding a minor league player who was very successful in 2012.

In 396 plate appearances for Rochester last year, Ramirez's line was .276/.316/.451. While he obviously strikes out too much (97) and walks too little (18), he has significant power (15 homers and 18 doubles). He is Darin Mastroianni minus a bit of defensive range and speed, but with more power.

Brandon Boggs is another likely possibility as he has experience in all three OF positions and also posted a .767 OPS in AAA last year. He is Wilkin Ramirez with better plate discipline and less power.

It would interesting to see if the Twins goes this route and see how Hicks, Benson, and Oswaldo Arcia do in AAA to begin the season, at least until June.

Middle Infield

The Twins experimented with their middle infield in 2012. Jamey Carroll was above average defensively at short but started the season struggling at the plate. Alexi Casilla was above average at second base, but was bad at the plate and is gone, signing with Baltimore.

The Twins then made a series of bad decisions regarding prospect Brian Dozier. They called him up even though he was not successful in limited time at Rochester. He started out of the gates well enough, demonstrating some pop and good fundamentals in the field. But then he crashed. The Twins stuck with him for several weeks after he started to stink for some reason and never bothered to move him over to second base and Carroll back to shortstop. Eventually he was demoted and Pedro Florimon was given a chance at shortstop. The Twins mysteriously didn't bring Dozier back in September. He could have played second base during that time. I think the Twins really should have tried out all possible combinations of middle infield alignment between Florimon, Dozier, Carroll, and Eduardo Escobar. Unfortunately it was almost completely Florimon-Carroll, with Escobar filling in some at second base.

Florimon was flashy at shortstop but made a number of errors on routine plays. His bat was also pretty bad, adding to the offensive woes the middle infield went through in 2012.

Looking forward to 2013, it would seem like the same four players are going to be in contention, with only three likely to make the roster. Jamey Carroll surprised people with his above average play at SS and I believe he should return to that position. This is also due to the fact that the Twins needs somebody besides Mauer at the top of their lineup to get on base and Carroll had a strong second half of the 2012 season.

I would give second base to Dozier who definitely is going to be a better offensive performer than Florimon. If Dozier can improve defensively at an easier position this might also help his performance at the plate.

I would have Florimon take over the utility infielder role and keep Escobar at Rochester to try to develop some kind of offense.

Odds and Ends

Other things I would like to see the Twins do include giving the long relief role to Rule 5 draft pick Ryan Pressly and sending Anthony Swarzak off in some trade for a low-A hard thrower. Swarzak is competent and some teams might consider him as a starter. Pressly is nothing special but he just turned 24 and is over two years younger than Scott Diamond (not to mention three years younger than Swarzak). It isn't as though the Twins are without long relievers from the mess of 5th-6th starters they have right now in the system in case Pressly is terrible. He might be worth the very low risk and may improve for 2014.

I also would like the Twins to give up on the Drew Butera era and add Chris Herrmann to the roster. Herrmann is not a great prospect, but rather a good one and that works as a catcher. Furthermore, he can also play the corner outfield positions and would serve as the 5th outfielder. He isn't going to be a starting catcher anyway, so the "playing every day" mantra doesn't really apply. His adequate defense and great plate discipline make him much more deserving of a roster spot than that one other guy.

Finally, there is one bench spot left and I would like to see what Chris Colabello can do. There isn't much time to wait and see with him in AAA. I would understand if the Twins went with Escobar to start the season to see Colabello hit in Rochester, but he is getting old, is peaking, and has power. His 2012 performance in AA coupled with his complete dominance of the Mexican Winter League earns him this reward. And . . . it makes for a good story and someone interesting to watch in 2013.

The Roster

Jamey Carroll, SS (RH)
Joe Mauer, C (LH)
Josh Willingham, LF (RH)
Justin Morneau, 1B (LH)
Trevor Plouffe, 3B (RH)
Ryan Doumit, DH (SH)
Chris Parmelee, RF (LH)
Brian Dozier, 2B (RH)
Darin Mastroianni, CF (RH)

Wilkin Ramirez OF (RH)/Brandon Boggs OF (SH), Pedro Florimon MI (SH), Chris Herrmann C/LF/RF (LH), Chris Colabello​ 1B/emergency 3B (RH)

Scott Diamond (LH)
Vance Worley (RH)
Kevin Correia (RH)
Liam Hendriks (RH)
Rich Harden (RH)*

Ryan Pressly (LR-RH)
Tyler Robertson (MR-LH)
Anthony Slama (!!!!) (MR-RH) **
Casey Fien (MR-RH)
Brian Duensing (MI-LH)
Jared Burton (SU-RH)
Glen Perkins (LH-CL)

* Pelfrey is likely not ready to start the season. Harden could lose to any number of other pitchers, of course. But if he's healthy that is very good.
** It's Slama's time, and Alex Burnett has one option year left. Burnett needs to work on things and should do it in Rochester in high-leverage setup situations.

So this concludes a very updated blueprint that is more in touch with reality. The Twins are going to face some trade opportunities and prospects knocking on the door in 2013 so this season is definitely going to be a work-in-progress and the 25-man roster will look very different at the end of the season.

This is under the assumption that no more prospects are going to be added to the system before the beginning of the 2013 season. So here are the top 60 prospects in the Twins organization:


1. Miguel Sano
2. Aaron Hicks
3. Oswaldo Arcia
4. Byron Buxton
5. Alex Meyer
6. Eddie Rosario
7. Jose Berrios
8. Kyle Gibson
9. Max Kepler
10. Trevor May
11. Joe Benson
12. Travis Harrison
13. Chris Herrmann
14. Nate Roberts
15. Adam Walker
16. Kennys Vargas
17. Niko Goodrum
18. Adrian Salcedo
19. Hudson Boyd
20. Matt Hauser
21. Josh Burris
22. Danny Santana
23. BJ Hermsen
24. Alex Wimmers
25. Levi Michael
26. Dereck Rodriguez
27. Jason Wheeler
28. Jorge Polanco
29. Tom Stuifbergen
30. Mason Melotakis
31. Luke Bard
32. Danny Ortiz
33. Michael Tonkin
34. Angel Mata
35. J.T. Chargois
36. Madison Boer
37. Matthew Summers
38. D.J. Baxendale
39. Manuel Soliman
40. Angel Morales
41. A.J. Achter
42. Corey Williams
43. J.D. Williams
44. Lester Oliveros
45. Josmil Pinto
46. Bruce Pugh
47. Chris Colabello
48. Dakota Watts
49. Tyler Duffey
50. James Beresford
51. Tim Shibuya
52. Deolis Guerra
53. Pat Dean
54. Taylor Rogers
55. Pedro Hernandez
56. Romy Jimenez
57. Tyler Jones
58. Logan Darnell
59. Matt Koch
60. Bobby Lanigan

Once I got to 35 it became a mess of pitchers. There are about 10-12 pitchers who should differentiate themselves in 2013.