• Scouting with Sean Johnson

    As Spring Training approaches, we’ve hashed and re-hashed Prospect Lists. We’ve dissected the signing of Kevin Correia many times over. We’ve projected lineups of every affiliate.

    There are few things more informative than talking with those that are behind the information. So today let’s do something else. Let’s talk scouting with West Coast Scouting Supervisor Sean Johnson.

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    First off, huge thanks to Sean! As baseball is starting to get rolling, he took some time out of his schedule to answer some questions and shed some light on our favorite franchise.
    Sean had great things to say about the organization “from the top down” and exudes the “Twins Way positivity”.

    My original plan was the use quotes to formulate an article, but when you find all the quotes are worth using, it’s going to be presented in a Q and A fashion. I apologize for the lengthiness, but it’s should make for a great read.


    (www.texastech.com)

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    Jeremy Nygaard: It’s great to catch you: A guy on the “front lines”. What’s the scouting life like? After seeing Trouble with the Curve, is that realistic?

    Sean Johnson: It’s not as gloomy as Clint Eastwood’s character. It’s not that bad. The time on the road is extensive in the spring. Guys are away from their family and friends. From now until draft day, you go where the players are. There’s not a lot of off days. I’m bouncing all over the country. It’s real hectic. I spend most of my time in California.

    If there’s a guy you have to see, it’s his last high-school start and his team isn’t going to make the playoffs, you have to make a decision. Deron [Johnson, the Twins Director of Scouting] might have to be in Seattle or might have to be in Miami for one last look before the draft. You have to be flexible.

    JN: You’re listed in the Media Guide as the “West Coast Scouting Supervisor”. Do the Twins have “crosscheckers”?

    SJ: Yeah, we have four regional supervisors. We have two “National Crosscheckers” that don’t supervise any areas. Tim O’Neil is dedicated to the amateur world year-round. Earl Frishman does national work too, but also spring training and pro scouting in the summer.

    Most teams have “crosscheckers”. Some have “scouting supervisors”. The only difference is that [as a supervisor] I’m directly in charge of the scouts on the west coast. We get to hire, or if a guy gets promoted. I talk to my guys on the west coast almost every day in the spring. We’re connected. We compile the information to get to Deron or Mike [Radcliff, Vice President, Player Personnel] and I get it to them.

    I basically see each one of my area scout’s best players, typically the guys that go in the top five or ten rounds. I see as many as I can and try to put them in some kind of an order. So take the catcher in Southern California versus the catcher in, say, Denver. Which one do I think is better? Or do I think that someone else might need to come and see?

    JN: How do you stack a draft board when not everybody is familiar with all the guys?

    SJ: We rely on the area scouts and their conviction levels in the lower rounds to help us figure out who to select. We don’t have enough time in the spring to get lots of looks at every player we turn in.

    JN: So when the draft rolls around, are you in the Cities for that?

    SJ: Yeah, we’ll come in and have about seven full days of preparation. From 9 am until we are done. We used to go crazy, get in at nine and leave at 11 pm. The way we set it up is that we have them ordered by the grades we’ve given them walking in the room. Now we can get it done in time to go grab a nice dinner and go get some sleep.

    JN: How many guys are there?

    SJ: The draft room usually has about 10 guys. Most teams don’t bring everybody in. The room in Target Field is much nicer than the room in the Metrodome. We were in a poorly vented room downstairs. Down in the dungeon, we’d have fans we’d have to bring in and coolers with ice for our drinks. It was really blue-collar. But it was what it was and we made it work.

    Since moving to Target Field it’s like we moved to Taj Mahal. We have a room with a projector. We can watch film. We have a place to make coffee and can bring some food in. It’s got air-conditioning. It’s not the biggest room in the world either, but it’s adequate. So we’ll have about ten of our scouts and Terry Ryan is there for the whole thing.

    JN: How has draft changed? A handful of years ago it was on ESPN2 in the middle of the day. Now it’s an event…

    SJ: Things haven’t really changed. Obviously we’re happy it’s becoming an event. It will never be as big as the NFL draft. Those guys are already famous. That’s what will prevent our draft from becoming extremely popular. No one knows who these guys are. We took Aaron Hicks. No one knew who he was. We’re projecting on a 17 or 18-year-old kid. Hopefully he’s good. Check in in five years and see how he’s doing. It’s a totally different dynamic. It’s great for our sport, but it doesn’t really change our approach.

    The draft used to go much faster. Last year it was more fun because we had more picks. Now there is more time in between picks. It used to be just one big conference call. It wasn’t on TV. It seemed like it was really fast. My first draft was 2002 and I couldn’t believe how fast it went. Now there’s a minute between picks, which gives you a little bit of time to collect your thoughts in case a guy you wanted gets picked. There’s a little more strategy to it, which is good.

    JN: Later in the draft it seems so rapid-fire. Does it happen very often where a guy you’re looking to take gets picked or is it that the draft pool is so large that the odds or your guy going is pretty small?

    SJ: It happens a lot more in the first ten rounds. Everybody has the same 90 or 100 guys at the top because their tools are much more evident. Those guys stand out, everyone has scouted them. They’re a little more famous. But once you get a little later – to the 3rd or the 4th round – you can see a guy taken that you didn’t like at all and he goes in the 3rd round. There could be a guy that goes that you’ve never heard of. That’s happens more on Day 2 and 3. Later though guys get picked off less than you’d think. At that point teams like different guys, scouts turn different guys in. You’re going to have 1500 players get drafted. Our scouts don’t turn all those guys in.

    Some teams will take guys [they have connections to] later. Maybe the Tigers take Ty Cobb’s great-great-grandson. We don’t have any of those “favor picks” as we call them. So-and-so’s whoever… we don’t typically do that.

    JN: How many guys do you typically have on your draft board?

    SJ: We usually turn in around 900 guys. We’ll have about 900 tags in our room - which is overwhelming. We’re only going to get 40 of them.

    JN: Up until last year – before the CBA changes – you had a pretty good idea about what teams might take a guy that slips. Last year, the Astros save money right away and take expensive guys later. The Blue Jays take expensive guys early and draft college seniors later. The Twins did what the Twins do. Take a guy, pay him near slot. Is there a lot of strategy?

    SJ: We contemplated doing all that stuff. It was the first year; there was a lot of feeling out. We didn’t know what other teams were going to do. We knew someone would re-arrange their money to squeeze out one more guy.

    First, you have to analyze the draft crop and see what the strengths are. Obviously we thought about all the scenarios, but you don’t want to save money up for a guy who might not be there. We really like Buxton. We saved some money here and there, but we always just tried to take the next best guy.

    Next year we have one of the biggest pools. We had a huge pool last year. We can explore. If we don’t like any of the guys that want a certain amount of money, we have options. There’s not clear cut group of four or five guys. It’s wide open.

    JN: But it’s still early…

    SJ: I mean, Bryce Harper isn’t going to come out of nowhere in March. We’ve seen all the guys. The high-school crop of pitching is down. Most of the better arms are college guys this year. There are not a lot of great bats in this draft.

    It’s a shallow draft this year. High-school right-handed pitching is way down. There’s some high-school catching, there’s some high-school left-handers. There’s some power armed college-armed at the top…

    Look at Dylan Bundy’s year. It would be Bundy and everybody else in this draft. Archie Bradley and everybody else, Rendon…

    JN: How about Appel? Do you treat him differently?

    SJ: Well he’s not going to come at a discount. His advisors aren’t going to let him take a discount. They think he’s the best guy in the draft and he will get a chance to prove it. He might be. I wouldn’t plan on him taking a discount, no.

    JN: Didn’t he want the full pick value for #1 no matter where he went last year?

    SJ: I can’t answer that. I don’t think anybody can answer that.

    JN: When he didn’t go first overall, was that a big shock to you in the Twins draft room?

    SJ: We knew from talking to other people that Houston was taking the temperature of a lot of guys, all who went in the Top 10. They weren’t dead-set on him, we could tell that. He seemed like the right fit, Houston-kid, it all made sense. But you never know. It was all tight-lipped and all hush-hush. But no, it wasn’t a shock. We knew there was a chance he wouldn’t sign, or be hesitant, if the money wasn’t right. Houston did a great job, we commend them. They got a great player - we like Correa too - and loaded up with Rio Ruiz and Lance McCullers.

    If you can squeak another player out of the draft… if you get two big-league players out of the draft, that’s a good draft.

    JN: Tell me about Zack Jones.

    SJ: Elliott Strankman, my area scout, really liked him. He saw him pitch a lot and everyone that saw him believed he would have one of the best fastballs in that draft.

    He was on a bad team at San Jose State and they started him. He’s a high-wired, amped-up guy who throws it hard and tries to strike people out. It’s going to come down to him developing a breaking ball, which we think he will add over time. We like his athleticism; he played shortstop back in the day. He’s got good life on his fastball throwing it 95 or 96. When we got him, we were pumped; we were high-fiving in the Draft room. To get to the big leagues, he’s going to have to have a secondary pitch to finish hitters off. It doesn’t matter how hard you throw it if that’s all you have.

    JN: A lot of the college relievers will get a chance to start, will Jones?

    SJ: No, he’s locked in the bullpen.

    JN: With a chance to move quick?

    SJ: Absolutely. We’ll keep challenging him. Our hope is that he’ll start in Fort Myers.

    Mason Melotakis and Tyler Duffey, those guys are going to be starters this year.

    JN: Speaking of that, are assignments determined in Spring Training? Or are they decided ahead of time? How does that work out?

    SJ: There are group of guys that put their heads together. There is some Spring Training element to it, when a guy shows up he needs to look like he can play. The rule of thumb is that you want to start a guy at a level he can handle and survive and succeed and build confidence at that level. And when he does, he’s ready for the next level. It’s one step at a time with us. No one is entitled by any means.

    There’s a lot that goes into it. More than people think.

    JN: Any feelings on other guys?

    SJ: I saw Buxton in Elizabethton. The sky’s the limit with that guy. He’s a gifted player.

    We really like Berrios. He’s not the biggest guy, but he’s got a live arm and great feel.

    JN: How about Travis Harrison?

    SJ: I saw him this summer. He’s in really good shape. The power hasn’t come yet, but he can really hit. We’re counting on him. Where he’s going to end defensively, I don’t know. He’d tell you he’s a good hitter, not a slugger. He can go foul line to foul line. He’s hitting for a good average and taking good at-bats, a lot like Aaron Hicks was. Guys change a lot from 18 to 23.

    JN: He’s going to stay at third for now?

    SJ: I think that’s the plan. We hope he’ll start at Cedar Rapids.

    JN: It seems like the farm system has more “prospects” in it. That’s a testament to you guys doing a great job.

    SJ: We think we’re going in the right direction, but we’re not satisfied. We need to have another good draft next year. We feel good about last year’s draft. But that’s over with. Time to knock it out of the park again!

    JN: When does the page turn on the draft? As soon as the previous draft is over?

    SJ: It’s faster than that actually. We had one year where we took the tables down in the draft room and talked about our picks and literally 40 minutes later we’re in the press box watching the next crop of guys play for four days. It was a very quick turnaround.

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    Sean and I talked about other baseball-related happenings before our conversation took an interesting turn when we started talking about the Prospect Handbook.

    SJ: We follow the site. We get on there every now and then. Before it was TwinsDaily, when it was Seth’s deal, we go on there to see what you guys are saying. The thing with scouting is that you can get out of touch with reality. What we think and what other people think and the other 29 teams in the league think about our players. Most of the guys you get in the draft, you like those guys more than the other teams, that’s how you got them. It’s good to get that perspective: Are we really getting the right guy, or do we just think we are?

    We talked some about prospect rankings and how some publications form their opinions and how a lot of the publications and people involved are very informed. Sean put it all into perspective.

    SJ: I looked at Baseball America’s Top 30; I thought they did a good job. But who cares what order they’re in? They’re all prospects. Either they’re gonna make it or they’re not.

    And a tip for anyone who aspires to be a scout someday:

    SJ: Focus on what a guy can do, not what he can’t. We’ll spend the rest of his career telling him what he can’t do.
    This article was originally published in blog: Scouting with Sean Johnson started by Jeremy Nygaard
    Comments 63 Comments
    1. Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
      Brock Beauchamp -
      Quote Originally Posted by FrodaddyG View Post
      What. The. ****?
      The Twins could have moved him to Venezuela as a 14 year old, put him in blackface, taught him a few words in Spanish, and then signed him as an international free agent.

      Another classic example of this franchise's inability to think outside the box.
    1. maxisagod's Avatar
      maxisagod -
      Quote Originally Posted by Blackjack View Post
      The questions I would have liked to have seen is: How does a player like Bryce Harper fall so far in the draft and then become a superstar?? How come so many teams, including the Twins, passed on him?
      Must mean Mike Trout.....
    1. FrodaddyG's Avatar
      FrodaddyG -
      Quote Originally Posted by maxisagod View Post
      Must mean Mike Trout.....
      My guess is Tom Brady.
    1. Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
      Brock Beauchamp -
      I'm most disappointed that the Twins failed to sign Zach Parise.
    1. Blackjack's Avatar
      Blackjack -
      Quote Originally Posted by maxisagod View Post
      Must mean Mike Trout.....
      Screwed that one up didn't I??!! SI had a good article on him awhile back, how 24 other teams passed on him, now the Angels have a budding superstar. Goes to show how much of a crap shoot the draft really is.
    1. FrodaddyG's Avatar
      FrodaddyG -
      Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
      I'm most disappointed that the Twins failed to sign Zach Parise.
      I hear they've really made it clear they are "very interested" in signing Diana Taurasi, though.
    1. Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
      Brock Beauchamp -
      Quote Originally Posted by FrodaddyG View Post
      I hear they've really made it clear they are "very interested" in signing Diana Taurasi, though.
      It'll all boil down to dollars and years.
    1. Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
      Jeremy Nygaard -
      If my memory serves me, Trout's senior year was limited by a lot of rain and guys had a hard time seeing him play. The scout that signed him had a connection to Trout's dad, so he was on him more than others. Trout would have been a guy that Twins would have been high on - toolsy, but that was also the year Gibson fell into the Twins laps. It's hard to blame them when they got a guy that was considered a top-5 talent just weeks before the draft.
    1. Ultima Ratio's Avatar
      Ultima Ratio -
      Quote Originally Posted by thrylos98 View Post



      Glad to hear the truth from an insider.
      Self-deprecating irony or accidentally walking into that joke?
    1. FrodaddyG's Avatar
      FrodaddyG -
      Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
      It'll all boil down to dollars and years.
      And how lax the Minnesota DUI laws might be.
    1. ashburyjohn's Avatar
      ashburyjohn -
      Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
      It'll all boil down to dollars and years.
      She has to want to come to MN. Sometimes you just can't give away your money.
    1. drjim's Avatar
      drjim -
      Thanks for the article, good stuff on the draft. I especially appreciated the section where he compared their strategy to Houston and Toronto. I was happy to hear they at least considered different strategies on how to spread the money around. I still think Buxton was the right call and like some of the other picks as well.

      As far as Ryan's role is concerned, I remember an interview from a couple of months ago where he answered a couple of questions on the draft and basically said he knows enough to be dangerous, that he might see a guy once or twice and makes a point not to have that shape his opinion or to try and influence the decisions that are made. It makes sense he would be in the room but I have doubts he does much in terms of making decisions. But the ultimate responsibility of draft performance rests with him.
    1. drjim's Avatar
      drjim -
      Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
      I'm confident that someone like Terry Ryan is very sensitive to the fact that with his scouting background it would be very easy to be seen as running roughshod over the guys actually doing the work now - careful not to start too many comments with "well, back when *I* was scouting...". On the other hand, I still find it difficult to accept that there is no difference ("regardless of who"), in how draft day plays out when a Bill Smith is in the big chair versus when Terry Ryan is - Smith will certainly defer to exactly whatever his chief of scouting recommends, Ryan would by contrast... what? The discussion as the rankings are constructed the day before the draft would have to be colored in some way by his take on how to synthesize all the information into a strong and cohesive draft for that year, and as draft day itself unfolds I could imagine a glance across the room to Ryan, where even a shrug of the shoulders saying "use your judgement" means more than not even looking in Smith's direction to make each call.
      I think this is an interesting idea, but I would still think that the synthesizing of information into a strong and cohesive draft is the role of the scouting director. Ryan is most likely there to observe, make sure that the process is acceptable, and possibly to bounce ideas off. I would be surprised if he does much to help formulate the strategy for the draft since he would have such minimal observation of players.
    1. Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
      Jeremy Nygaard -
      The example that Sean used about TR helping was that he'd help take the tags off the board when guys are selected. So we're talking minimal involvement. The draft is a big deal and GMs are interested, he said its likely the same in every baseball city in America. The draft room is across from St. Peter's office and near Ryan's so a lot of guys will drop in, though the decisions are in the hands of few.
    1. ashburyjohn's Avatar
      ashburyjohn -
      Quote Originally Posted by drjim View Post
      I would be surprised if he does much to help formulate the strategy for the draft since he would have such minimal observation of players.
      A lot of people prefer to draft the best available player in the first round (particularly a high pick) rather than draft for need, but after that first pick or two you can draft for need without too much compromise. If the GM feels the system overall is short on pitching, he will want the strategy to address that in the early to middle rounds. Maybe this will be obvious to the scouting director as well, but I would expect the GM would make sure everyone is one the same (namely, HIS) page on this. I think that's what we saw with the Twins in 2012. Maybe I'm a little too fanciful in guessing about body language from the big guy on draft day; I was drawing a contrast to the Bill Smith years when I would bet he had zero impact on the dynamics of draft day itself. The scouting team admires and trusts Terry Ryan and vice versa, and I can't help believing it matters on draft day.
    1. diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
      diehardtwinsfan -
      That seems good in theory, but BPA gets pretty hazy once pretty quick. Sickles graded Gausman at an A- with Buxton at a B+. Given that, I'd say Gausman was the BPA but he was skipped. My concern with this idea is that BPA is often fluid. I'm not convinced Buxton was the BPA, and he certainly was not what the Twins needed. The Twins didn't pass up Steven Strasburg or Bryce Harper to pick Buxton, but they did pass some very good options. They passed up several pitchers with a 1/2 ceiling that could have helped them in 2014 in favor of a very raw OF with a high ceiling that won't be helping any time soon.

      Need has to be considered, espeically given the fact that after the first round, your likelihood of finding that special player that fills the need drops too.
    1. birdwatcher's Avatar
      birdwatcher -
      I don't know what you guys are talking about. The Twins are completely clueless. Hell, they don't even own laptops.
    1. TwinsTakes-RD's Avatar
      TwinsTakes-RD -
      Great article, Jeremy! I love the incite into the scouting by professional sports teams.

      Does anyone else think it's crazy that the scouts only "turn in 900" guys when 1500 guys are drafted? That's 40% of the draft! Did they see those guys and just didn't like them so they don't waste time ranking them for their room? Or are there players they never see?
    1. cmb0252's Avatar
      cmb0252 -
      While sickles graded gausman higher law, mayo, and BA graded Buxton higher. Does this mean sickles was wrong? Of Course not. Only time will tell.

      Everyone, especially the front office, knows we need pitching NOW. Everyone, especially the front office again, knows we have outfield depth on all levels from low A to the bigs. Even knowing the depth the front office still takes a toolsy HS outfielder over a college arm. What does that tell you about how they, not sickles or law or mayo or BA, sees Buxton?

      The twins spent a ton of time/money scouting and in the end Buxton was the guy. I'm perfectly fine with that. I'm not sure why so many of you aren't.
    1. diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
      diehardtwinsfan -
      I don't have a problem with them scouting Buxton, my point was that BPA is a rather fluid argument that is very much in the eye of the beholder. They weren't passing up on a no-brainer like Strassburg to get Buxton, and I'd add that had they taken Gausman, they weren't passing up the next Bryce Harper in Buxton... Both have nice ceilings, one was A LOT closer to it than the other (i.e. much less risk), filled a position of desparate need, and would have been on a timeline that would have corresponded with the next wave of prospects...
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