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  • Seth's 2013 Twins Hitting Projections

    Since completing the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook a month ago, I have managed to find a little extra time in my life. So, what did I do? I am so cool that I started making my Minnesota Twins Roster Projections (which can be found here and here). Today, another piece to that fun, preseason puzzle is presented for you today. It is my attempt to predict how the Twins hitters will fare in 2013.

    I'm sure you've reviewed several such projections, such as Bill James and PECOTA and others. However, those are all just done with a computer and with stats and all those things that seem to make a lot of sense based on several factors like the players' history, age and more.

    My projections are fairly similar, in nature, yet likely different in results. I admit that I used my computer and I looked at players' stats from previous seasons. I considered the players' ages and career trajectories. I also made some assumptions based on intangibles, either previously chronicled or developed on my own. In other words, I look at the numbers and then use my gut to determine what the player will do in 2013.

    You're certainly free to disagree with them, if you like. Frankly, I just enjoy doing it because it helps me get ready for the upcoming season. I'm not going to claim that my projections are in any way better than the others you've read (even those other ones will be pretty close on some and not even a little close on others), but I am certainly willing to stand behind them. And, hopefully someone will remind me at the end of the season to look at them and see how close I was.

    I encourage all of you to do something similar and/or post your projections for the players below as well. Obviously we can't predict injury or trades and easier than we can predict who will break out and who will bust. But again, these are solely my projections for the 2012 seasons for the Twins hitters. It is not meant to be used in your fantasy league drafts or anything. If you do so, do so at your own risk.

    Please note that I projected player by player, and at the end, I compared my projected 2013 numbers to the actual 2012 numbers to see if I was completely off. I do show some small improvement by the offense overall. Note also that I have about 250 more plate appearances to reach those 2012 numbers, but I would say those are for other players who come up for brief stints, or to account for the unexpected.

    With that, I'm going to split the projections into two charts, in hopes that it will fit better onto your screen.


    C Joe Mauer 143 626 532 0.325 0.406 0.483 0.889
    C Ryan Doumit 127 505 470 0.257 0.305 0.430 0.735
    C Drew Butera 31 91 84 0.202 0.231 0.286 0.516
    C Chris Herrmann 43 123 108 0.259 0.325 0.361 0.686
    1B Justin Morneau 142 607 521 0.292 0.381 0.536 0.916
    2B Brian Dozier 113 458 412 0.267 0.330 0.391 0.720
    3B Trevor Plouffe 154 598 536 0.252 0.311 0.451 0.763
    SS Pedro Florimon 62 179 164 0.189 0.218 0.262 0.480
    UIF Jamey Carroll 129 335 281 0.274 0.343 0.342 0.685
    UIF Eduardo Escobar 108 237 212 0.259 0.312 0.349 0.661
    LF Josh Willingham 151 626 534 0.253 0.355 0.489 0.843
    CF Aaron Hicks 91 397 336 0.265 0.348 0.399 0.746
    RF Chris Parmelee 119 433 382 0.259 0.335 0.440 0.775
    OF Darin Mastroianni 115 387 337 0.246 0.313 0.335 0.648
    OF Oswaldo Arcia 33 128 115 0.322 0.367 0.487 0.854
    OF Joe Benson 67 210 184 0.250 0.305 0.375 0.680
    2013 Predictions 162 5940 5208 0.267 0.337 0.426 0.763
    2012 Totals 162 6209 5562 0.260 0.325 0.390 0.715

    Here are more of the projected counting numbers:

    C Joe Mauer 78 173 38 2 14 78 3 81 92
    C Ryan Doumit 49 121 31 1 16 63 0 33 92
    C Drew Butera 5 17 4 0 1 7 0 4 19
    C Chris Herrmann 12 28 6 1 1 13 1 12 18
    1B Justin Morneau 77 152 32 1 31 86 0 79 99
    2B Brian Dozier 49 110 27 3 6 41 13 41 52
    3B Trevor Plouffe 78 135 30 1 25 68 1 51 121
    SS Pedro Florimon 20 31 7 1 1 13 3 8 47
    UIF Jamey Carroll 41 77 14 1 1 25 7 38 43
    UIF Eduardo Escobar 18 55 11 1 2 23 3 19 38
    LF Josh Willingham 71 135 27 0 33 104 1 87 141
    CF Aaron Hicks 64 89 14 5 7 33 13 49 75
    RF Chris Parmelee 42 99 20 2 15 41 1 46 88
    OF Darin Mastroianni 44 83 12 3 4 31 29 38 94
    OF Oswaldo Arcia 16 37 7 0 4 21 0 10 25
    OF Joe Benson 24 46 8 3 3 22 8 18 51
    2013 Predictions 688 1388 288 25 164 669 83 614 1095
    2012 Totals 701 1448 270 30 131 667 135 505 1069

    That's a lot of numbers to digest, so take your time... Are there some you agree with? Others that you disagree with? Which are the most egregious? And again, be sure to post your projections for some of all of the players as well!
    This article was originally published in blog: Seth's 2013 Twins Hitting Projections started by Seth Stohs
    Comments 34 Comments
    1. sorney's Avatar
      sorney -
      Two 30 HR's guys on the same team?!?!?! Is that allowed in baseball?!?!?

      Nice work overall. It'll be fun to see how close you get
    1. beckmt's Avatar
      beckmt -
      Seem to be missing some MI AB's. That would probably drag the numbers down. Or believing the Twins will pick up a middle infielder somewhere along the line. Good job and very interesting though.
    1. MWLFan's Avatar
      MWLFan -
      One of the more interesting battles during the season will be to see whose BA can go lower...Florimon or Butera. Seth is putting Pedro as the early season favorite. But only 62 games of that kind of offensive output. Guess he is counting on a lot of Jamey Carroll and Escobar. Either way it looks like Pedro's best bet is to just launch himself at any ball on the inside of the plate in hopes it grazes his body somewhere that will not hurt so much. Maybe he can amass more HBP then actual hits.
    1. johnnydakota's Avatar
      johnnydakota -
      yes i to noticed about 250 missing at bats for the middle infield , along with great pleasure seeing very limited playing time for Drew,but still have 1300 plate apperences for catcher and dh spot
    1. Oldgoat_MN's Avatar
      Oldgoat_MN -
      If Jamey Carroll plays both SS and 2B does he only bat once?
      Fun stuff Seth. Thank you.

      Really like the Mauer, Morneau & Willingham numbers. Some pop in the lineup would be great.
    1. mike wants wins's Avatar
      mike wants wins -
      Great writeup Seth, thanks.
    1. jay's Avatar
      jay -
      Great stuff, Seth. It's always fun to add a little of the 'gut' dimension back in from some of the heartless computer projections. I'd love to see those seasons out of Mauer and Morneau... and even Plouffe.

      The number that catches my eye is the overall OPS vs runs scored. OPS has correlated higher than almost any other stat to runs scored for a while now and .763 would have been top 5 last year. http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/po...gument-for-ops If we assume the other ABs mentioned (300 or so) are closer to .600, they'd still be top 10 at around .755 and 740 runs.

      At the end of the day, I think both the OBP and SLG will be a few ticks lower, but I love it overall.
    1. ericchri's Avatar
      ericchri -
      Wow, I'm expecting Florimon to (not) hit his way out of the SS job, but even I couldn't predict that pathetic a season. I'm curious how much of that is just gut feeling and how much actual projection. I'd have pegged him for around .210/.260/.300 which is still pathetic and a fair bit better than this projection.

      I hope you're right about Morneau and Dozier. I expect Plouffe to be very streaky and Parmelee to be a fairly consistent decent hitter (similar to Doumit), so having another slugger in the lineup in Morneau to pair with Willingham would be fantastic, and we'll need one of the guys from the bottom of the order to hit better than expected, and Dozier seem like our best chance. Honestly, if you get a .685 OPS season from Carroll and a .720 OPS season from Dozier, you have to be pretty happy. Of course Florimon is gonna suck up a bunch of those at-bats to start the season off...
    1. Boom Boom's Avatar
      Boom Boom -
      I think you're being more bullish than I'd be on Dozier and Benson. If Florimon hits like you're projecting him, the Twins can't seriously justify keeping him as the starting shortstop all season.
    1. TheLeviathan's Avatar
      TheLeviathan -
      I think there are a few people too bullish (Doumit and Willingham come to mind) but I do think if Plouffe manages to hit 25 homeruns, I expect his RBI total to be closer to 80.
    1. tjsyam921's Avatar
      tjsyam921 -
      I think Morneau's homers will be a little lower, Doziers a little higher, and all Parmelee's numbers will be higher.
    1. mcrow's Avatar
      mcrow -
      I have to say I think you're a bit overly positive on several players. I appreciate the positivity though.
    1. jmlease1's Avatar
      jmlease1 -
      can we DH for our SS instead of our pitcher? It might work better than letting Florimon swing the bat the way things are starting to look.
    1. Steve Lein's Avatar
      Steve Lein -
      I'd be extremely happy with these projections, as the OBP and OPS numbers put this as one of the top offenses in the league, like top 5 for sure, both well above league average. But you also project fewer runs scored (below league avg., and which are a good margin lower than what those OBP/OPS numbers would project), which is logical considering they are replacing two guys who hit at the top of the order last year and scored 141 runs between them (Span, Revere).
    1. ThePuck's Avatar
      ThePuck -
      Nice job Seth. There are some things I disagree with...for example I don't think Mauer will have a career high in strikeouts...but overall, it was pretty nice to see you put it all out there. I'd give it a 'like' but that feature seems to be missing...at least in my view.
    1. spycake's Avatar
      spycake -
      Actually, not as bullish as I expected from Seth, but still a bit bullish. For example, that team HR total would easily be a Target Field record, and almost match the Twins 2009 Metrodome power surge. Someday, it will probably happen, but I don't see that happening this year.

      Also, there are no predictions here for anyone to "crater" -- every year recently the Twins have had several players, even regulars, see significant performance drops (or fail to establish an acceptable performance level, in the case of rookies). I don't see that trend completely disappearing in one year. Dozier, Escobar, Parmelee, Mastroianni, and Benson are likely candidates for this in 2013. So is Plouffe, after his second-half collapse in 2012, plus rookies (Hicks, Arcia) and old guys (Carroll), of course.
    1. jimbo92107's Avatar
      jimbo92107 -
      Florimon .189 vs. Escobar .259? That's pretty much saying Escobar should be the regular SS.

      With that arm, maybe Florimon could try out for closer.
    1. Nick Nelson's Avatar
      Nick Nelson -
      These numbers all seem very plausible and reasonable to me. Nice job.
    1. mcrow's Avatar
      mcrow -
      Quote Originally Posted by Nick Nelson View Post
      These numbers all seem very plausible and reasonable to me. Nice job.
      I agree, but do think that it is possible to plausible (It could happen) and reasonable (not without reason) but some of these are unlikely at the same time.
    1. DAM DC Twins Fans's Avatar
      DAM DC Twins Fans -
      Seth very interesting article and set of offensive numbers--overly bullish to say the least. I disagree with most people and say they are not reasonable at all because you forgot to factor in time on the DL. You have Mauer playing 143 games, Doumit 127, Plouffe 154, Morneau 142 and Willingham 151. It is possible that one or two of these guys will avoid the DL--but all 5--given their history no way. (Yes, Doumit could spend time on the DL and get 127 appearances but not likely.) I gather you have Hicks coming up sometime around memorial day and displacing Mastro--if he is on team all year--he plays 120plus--Gardy and Ryan wont keep him on MLB roster to keep him on bench,.
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