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  • The Blizzard of Oz

    As I look out any window, I am blinded by the results of several recent blizzards that have left Dakota Territory with an ultra-reflective blanket of glaring white snow. Nothing makes me miss Minnesota Twins baseball more. I close my eyes, but it’s not blackness. An orange-ish haze is all see, due to the sunlight attempting to breach my lightly-closed eyelids.

    Despite the overflow of natural light, I am able to envision big things for the Twins in my mind’s eye. A Venezuelan outfielder, Oswaldo Arcia, appears to be a mighty storm of a player. He will be ready to blow through the American League soon. Just how intense will the “Blizzard of Oz” be?


    The Twins signed Arcia as a 16-year-old back in 2007. His numbers as a 17-year-old in the GCL were very similar to Miguel Sano’s at the same age. He has sustained that production successfully up to the AA level. He really has nothing left to prove at any level but AAA.

    He has slow-cooked to perfection and will start his sixth year with the organization on the cusp of forcing a big-league call-up. Please take a look at the things he was doing in New Britain last year.

    Arcia’s accomplishments label him as a pure baller, and he will be a nice addition to the big club very soon. There is no need to rush him to the Major Leagues. But we could see a path cleared for Oswaldo mid-summer in 2013. His arrival would feel like a “Coors Light Blizzard” during the swelter of July and August (refreshing). And that will feel like Venezuela in February.

    This ain't HD, but listen to the wonderful sound Arcia's bat speed creates.


    This article was originally published in blog: The Blizzard of Oz started by mnfanforlife
    Comments 103 Comments
    1. mnfanforlife's Avatar
      mnfanforlife -
      Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
      Continue to cling to the player development exception instead of the norm.

      And again Torii Hunter isn't a .300 hitter because he did it (almost did it) twice in a 15 yr career. Players have lucky seasons all the time and Hunter had a .389 BAPIP (really lucky) last year. Do you also consider Kubel a .300 hitter?
      You mean a "career-.300-hitter" right?...and No. Kubel nor Hunter qualify for that since both are under .280 for their respective MLB careers. But Hicks could have a said "lucky" season in MLB where he finishes the year over .290...pretty reasonable statement as I think the original was taken out of context. My bad for not clarifying.

      I will probably cling to the hope that Hicks will resemble Hunter statistically until I am proven wrong. This year in AAA will be very telling. I honestly wouldn't be shocked if Hicks duplicated his numbers from AA. Would you be? If Hicks accomplishes this, what would you project his career-year stat-line to look like? (which is what my Hicks projection was intended to be)
    1. kab21's Avatar
      kab21 -
      I don't even bother trying to predict lucky or unlucky seasons. Pretty much every hitter in the MLB aside butera, Dunn, Uggla and similar is capable of hitting .290. I see Hicks as a .260's hitter and would allow for a +/- 30-40 pt swing in peak lucky/unlucky BA's making it possible for him to hit anywhere from .230-.300 in any given season. Because that huge range I dislike bothering with peak projections. I'm significantly more interested in what a hitter is going to do each season.
    1. mnfanforlife's Avatar
      mnfanforlife -
      Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
      I don't even bother trying to predict lucky or unlucky seasons. Pretty much every hitter in the MLB aside butera, Dunn, Uggla and similar is capable of hitting .290. I see Hicks as a .260's hitter and would allow for a +/- 30-40 pt swing in peak lucky/unlucky BA's making it possible for him to hit anywhere from .230-.300 in any given season. Because that huge range I dislike bothering with peak projections. I'm significantly more interested in what a hitter is going to do each season.
      So, you're more interested in what their "average" season may look like? I am more interested in what their "best" season may look like. Nothing wrong with either interest, is there?
    1. CDog's Avatar
      CDog -
      Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
      Huh? Again, you went after kab's very rational, factually-backed approach to a poorly articulated, overzealous projection. And then backpeddled to state you had no idea what he meant. As is clear from this thread, the poster in question cannot be interpreted rationally. kab gave his argument far more credit than it deserves. As I'm doing to your "thoughts" now.
      I'm curious how many times you'll be willing to reply to my posts in this thread with a self-righteous tone while being completely wrong. We're up to three now. I gotta say, it takes some balls to continue to get high-handed even after you've been proven unequivacolly wrong. Good for you.

      As long as I'm here, my pointing out how embarrassed you should be about just how wrong you were wasn't my biggest moment. Sometimes softballs right down the middle are too tempting to pass up. I apologize for that, especially given the multiple threads recently about improving the tone. Those threads led to my attempt at a light, concilliatory response to your first post. I won't make that mistake again, but I was probably a little (or a lot) too gleeful and snarky when things took the predictable turn they did. Again, my apologies to the forum.
    1. TheLeviathan's Avatar
      TheLeviathan -
      Congrats, you are making less sense than the guy with the Hicks-Rodman comp.
    1. mnfanforlife's Avatar
      mnfanforlife -
      Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
      Congrats, you are making less sense than the guy with the Hicks-Rodman comp.
      It takes a nimble mind to wrap your head around that one! But if you read the entire post, it makes perfect sense. The other comp was Torii Hunter....Did you even catch that? Or was your "reading" too selective?
      What problems do you have with comparing Hunter to Hicks?
    1. John Bonnes's Avatar
      John Bonnes -
      I'm sorry I didn't check in on this thread before today.

      The Twins Daily community prides itself on the respectful way it treats fellow members of the community. Starting on the second page of this thread, a few condescending comments violated that statndard of behavior, and it's led to increasingly personal attacks. I suspect some of these comment are meant to help police the site, but you can't attack other members, even if it's not vulgar.

      We can't have the board operate like that. It only leads to additional attacks, both by the attacked and by others who view it as the way the board works. If, instead, you want to flag the initial post for the moderators, please do so.

      If you can't trust yourself to comment in that way, then please remove yourself from the conversation. (There are plenty of other threads and topics which you can enjoy.) I've already sent out a few warnings, and bans are next. Thank you for your understanding.
    1. FrodaddyG's Avatar
      FrodaddyG -
      Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post
      I'm sorry I didn't check in on this thread before today.

      The Twins Daily community prides itself on the respectful way it treats fellow members of the community. Starting on the second page of this thread, a few condescending comments violated that statndard of behavior, and it's led to increasingly personal attacks. I suspect some of these comment are meant to help police the site, but you can't attack other members, even if it's not vulgar.

      We can't have the board operate like that. It only leads to additional attacks, both by the attacked and by others who view it as the way the board works. If, instead, you want to flag the initial post for the moderators, please do so.

      If you can't trust yourself to comment in that way, then please remove yourself from the conversation. (There are plenty of other threads and topics which you can enjoy.) I've already sent out a few warnings, and bans are next. Thank you for your understanding.
      If you want to tailor the site rules to exclusively the lowest common denominator, guess what you'll be left with.
    1. kab21's Avatar
      kab21 -
      Quote Originally Posted by mnfanforlife View Post
      So, you're more interested in what their "average" season may look like? I am more interested in what their "best" season may look like. Nothing wrong with either interest, is there?
      I clearly stated this in response to CDog on page 2 and yet you continued to argue.

      I now understand your comment. Ceiling doesn't equal Best season. Ceiling is what kind of player the prospect becomes for his career (or at least his 5 yr peak).
    1. mnfanforlife's Avatar
      mnfanforlife -
      Quote Originally Posted by FrodaddyG View Post
      If you want to tailor the site rules to exclusively the lowest common denominator, guess what you'll be left with.
      hundreds of decent people?
    1. mnfanforlife's Avatar
      mnfanforlife -
      Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
      I clearly stated this in response to CDog on page 2 and yet you continued to argue.
      Yeah I believe I missed that comment entirely, my fault.
    1. Badsmerf's Avatar
      Badsmerf -
      Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post
      I'm sorry I didn't check in on this thread before today.

      The Twins Daily community prides itself on the respectful way it treats fellow members of the community. Starting on the second page of this thread, a few condescending comments violated that statndard of behavior, and it's led to increasingly personal attacks. I suspect some of these comment are meant to help police the site, but you can't attack other members, even if it's not vulgar.

      We can't have the board operate like that. It only leads to additional attacks, both by the attacked and by others who view it as the way the board works. If, instead, you want to flag the initial post for the moderators, please do so.

      If you can't trust yourself to comment in that way, then please remove yourself from the conversation. (There are plenty of other threads and topics which you can enjoy.) I've already sent out a few warnings, and bans are next. Thank you for your understanding.
      With regards to this thread, I think it has been pretty civil. With as large as TD is, there is going to be quarrels. As long as it doesn't get too messy why interject? Discussions like this are how people learn the intricacies of this sport. I don't think anyone has purposefully tried to attack another with no tact. I realize that this site was not set-up to be rube-chat, but at the same time it is an internet forum and must be policed carefully.
    1. TheLeviathan's Avatar
      TheLeviathan -
      Well, I'm glad I'm not the only one utterly confused by that.
    1. mnfanforlife's Avatar
      mnfanforlife -
      TheLeviathan, could I please start a gentlemanly discussion with you?

      Do you believe the Hicks - Hunter comp to be valid? Why or why not?
    1. glunn's Avatar
      glunn -
      Quote Originally Posted by FrodaddyG View Post
      If you want to tailor the site rules to exclusively the lowest common denominator, guess what you'll be left with.
      It takes intelligence and wisdom to utterly destroy a person's position without attacking the person.

      There are plenty of boards out there where people can engage in personal attacks. If someone likes reading such attacks or feuding, there are other places to do this. Here is a link to one of such sites.

      TD was conceived as a place where you can argue as passionately as you wish. You are perfectly free to tell someone that you believe that they are "absolutely wrong" then explain why you think that. But nothing good will ever come from characterizing someone's positions as "idiotic", "ridiculous", "stupid", or "clownish". This only leads to feuds. Again, there are other sites to go to for feuding and personal insults. In my opinion, those other sites are closer to a lowest common denominator than TD.

      Frodaddy, you are clearly a very intelligent person. I urge you to give some thought to the benefit of having a place where we can disagree as much as we want, but we fight using logic instead of personal attacks. I have noticed a positive change in your posts and the posts of some other members, so I remain hopeful that you will gradually come to see the policy in a more positive light.

      If it seems like I am lecturing, I apologize. But it seems important to make it as clear as possible why we are trying to reduce the personal attacks.
    1. TheLeviathan's Avatar
      TheLeviathan -
      Quote Originally Posted by glunn View Post
      But nothing good will ever come from characterizing someone's positions as "idiotic", "ridiculous", "stupid", or "clownish".
      How about "makes no sense"? I'm now under the impression that such a reference is also not acceptable.

      As for "clownish" - it was intended as "not to be taken seriously" - a bit more harsh than that, no disagreement. But I didn't refer to the individual at all - I was clearly referencing the projection. And I made that clear multiple times. This entire post by you is lost in the fact that what is being accused of being poor discourse was in no way a personal attack.
    1. mnfanforlife's Avatar
      mnfanforlife -
      Quote Originally Posted by glunn View Post
      It takes intelligence and wisdom to utterly destroy a person's position with attacking the person.
      Change the "with" to "without" and I could not agree more. I love debating about prospects, and I have been guilty of posting instigating comments in the past. I promise to debate respectfully with anyone from now forward.
    1. glunn's Avatar
      glunn -
      Quote Originally Posted by mnfanforlife View Post
      Change the "with" to "without" and I could not agree more. I love debating about prospects, and I promise to do so respectfully with anyone on this site.
      Thanks for calling my attention to that grievous typo -- I have now fixed it.
    1. mnfanforlife's Avatar
      mnfanforlife -
      Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
      What? No one is knocking down your door to take your rights. We're explaining why your projection isn't very realistic. Like if I predict 2013 will be a 50 homerun season for Mauer. COULD it happen? Sure, but it's so unrealistic that it's clownish. If you wish to project clownish numbers, no one is taking that right from you. It's just going to be pointed out that it's clownish.

      Now, if we see some changes in his approach (ala Hunter) then we can start to alter projections. But it's going to be some major changes to reach your projection. And the thing is, he could be a DAMN good player at significantly less than your projection.
      I completely agree with the second paragraph. But my projection was not nearly as wild as your example projection.
      How can my projection not be viewed as a probable career-year for Hicks in MLB? (.290 with 25 HR's and 35 Sb's)
      I am very sorry if I did not clarify the context of my projection better. But now you know.
      It is perfectly realistic, and I require that you explain why I should not hope for this....
    1. glunn's Avatar
      glunn -
      Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
      How about "makes no sense"? I'm now under the impression that such a reference is also not acceptable.

      As for "clownish" - it was intended as "not to be taken seriously" - a bit more harsh than that, no disagreement. But I didn't refer to the individual at all - I was clearly referencing the projection. And I made that clear multiple times. This entire post by you is lost in the fact that what is being accused of being poor discourse was in no way a personal attack.
      It seems to me that telling someone that what he's saying "makes no sense" is an invitation to feud. But telling someone that what he's saying "makes no sense to me" is an invitation to engage in further discussion. And if the response is not persuasive, then you can completely disagree and explain why you still believe that they are totally wrong.

      You are clearly very articulate. I have no doubt that you can adjust enough to say all that you want to say without violating the policy. Indeed, I think that you may eventually come to love the challenge of totally destroying an idiotic position while showing the greatest possible respect for your fellow Twins fans who you believe are mistaken.
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