• The Blizzard of Oz

    As I look out any window, I am blinded by the results of several recent blizzards that have left Dakota Territory with an ultra-reflective blanket of glaring white snow. Nothing makes me miss Minnesota Twins baseball more. I close my eyes, but it’s not blackness. An orange-ish haze is all see, due to the sunlight attempting to breach my lightly-closed eyelids.

    Despite the overflow of natural light, I am able to envision big things for the Twins in my mind’s eye. A Venezuelan outfielder, Oswaldo Arcia, appears to be a mighty storm of a player. He will be ready to blow through the American League soon. Just how intense will the “Blizzard of Oz” be?


    The Twins signed Arcia as a 16-year-old back in 2007. His numbers as a 17-year-old in the GCL were very similar to Miguel Sano’s at the same age. He has sustained that production successfully up to the AA level. He really has nothing left to prove at any level but AAA.

    He has slow-cooked to perfection and will start his sixth year with the organization on the cusp of forcing a big-league call-up. Please take a look at the things he was doing in New Britain last year.

    Arcia’s accomplishments label him as a pure baller, and he will be a nice addition to the big club very soon. There is no need to rush him to the Major Leagues. But we could see a path cleared for Oswaldo mid-summer in 2013. His arrival would feel like a “Coors Light Blizzard” during the swelter of July and August (refreshing). And that will feel like Venezuela in February.

    This ain't HD, but listen to the wonderful sound Arcia's bat speed creates.


    This article was originally published in blog: The Blizzard of Oz started by mnfanforlife
    Comments 103 Comments
    1. mnfanforlife's Avatar
      mnfanforlife -
      Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
      What? No one is knocking down your door to take your rights. We're explaining why your projection isn't very realistic. Like if I predict 2013 will be a 50 homerun season for Mauer. COULD it happen? Sure, but it's so unrealistic that it's clownish. If you wish to project clownish numbers, no one is taking that right from you. It's just going to be pointed out that it's clownish.

      Now, if we see some changes in his approach (ala Hunter) then we can start to alter projections. But it's going to be some major changes to reach your projection. And the thing is, he could be a DAMN good player at significantly less than your projection.
      I don't think my projection is clownish at all. Please read: Worm Hunting - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum
    1. mnfanforlife's Avatar
      mnfanforlife -
      Quote Originally Posted by FrodaddyG View Post
      He was also two levels below MLB.
      Worm Hunting - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum
    1. FrodaddyG's Avatar
      FrodaddyG -
      If you post that link enough will the content eventually change to where it has a point?
    1. mnfanforlife's Avatar
      mnfanforlife -
      Quote Originally Posted by FrodaddyG View Post
      If you post that link enough will the content eventually change to where it has a point?
      Haha! Well, it does have a point. Its "Hope."

      Your posts also have a point. Its "Hate"
    1. CDog's Avatar
      CDog -
      Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
      So then perhaps rather than criticizing kab's reply, you should be seeking clarification from the original poster. Rationally, kab's interpretation is the only one that makes sense.
      Well that's gotta be pretty embarrassing. On the other hand, interpreting what people write has never been your strongest suit.
    1. TheLeviathan's Avatar
      TheLeviathan -
      Quote Originally Posted by CDog View Post
      Well that's gotta be pretty embarrassing. On the other hand, interpreting what people write has never been your strongest suit.
      Huh? Again, you went after kab's very rational, factually-backed approach to a poorly articulated, overzealous projection. And then backpeddled to state you had no idea what he meant. As is clear from this thread, the poster in question cannot be interpreted rationally. kab gave his argument far more credit than it deserves. As I'm doing to your "thoughts" now.
    1. mnfanforlife's Avatar
      mnfanforlife -
      Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
      Huh? Again, you went after kab's very rational, factually-backed approach to a poorly articulated, overzealous projection. And then backpeddled to state you had no idea what he meant. As is clear from this thread, the poster in question cannot be interpreted rationally. kab gave his argument far more credit than it deserves. As I'm doing to your "thoughts" now.
      Dude chill. Kab can stand up for his/herself. I know. Rosario won't play in Minnesota this year. Its in the original post/thread. I wasn't arguing anything. I was stating my opinion (would rather see Rasario struggle than the AAA guys struggle). It is a perfectly rational idea. I even disclaimed that IT WONT HAPPEN. So you can stop pretending like youre "above" anyone else on here. Because you ARE NOT
    1. TheLeviathan's Avatar
      TheLeviathan -
      Quote Originally Posted by mnfanforlife View Post
      Rosario won't play in Minnesota this year.
      This is the Hicks thread. I'm not surprised you're having trouble keeping track of your posts that are being criticized.
    1. mnfanforlife's Avatar
      mnfanforlife -
      Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
      Huh? Again, you went after kab's very rational, factually-backed approach to a poorly articulated, overzealous projection. And then backpeddled to state you had no idea what he meant. As is clear from this thread, the poster in question cannot be interpreted rationally. kab gave his argument far more credit than it deserves. As I'm doing to your "thoughts" now.
      Kab can speak for his or herself. If you hate my posts so much, just stop reading them! It really is your choice to ignore or to become involved. Kab's facts support the Hicks-Hunter comparison very well. Thank you Kab
    1. mnfanforlife's Avatar
      mnfanforlife -
      Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
      This is the Hicks thread. I'm not surprised you're having trouble keeping track of your posts that are being criticized.
      Oh yes, can hardly keep them straight! Its still fun though.

      BTW...this is actually the Oswaldo Arcia thread!!! So you CAN be wrong! Amazing
    1. ashburyjohn's Avatar
      ashburyjohn -
      Quote Originally Posted by mnfanforlife View Post
      Your posts also have a point. Its "Hate"
      It's amazing what a change in Avatar can do.
    1. Oldgoat_MN's Avatar
      Oldgoat_MN -
      I think that mnfanforlife's projection was optimistic. However...
      indeed Torii Hunter's progress, with all the raw talent he had as a kid, has been in some ways mirrored by Hicks.
      It may be useful to point out that Hicks was 22 years old at New Britian. Only Arcia was 21 years old for the season.
      Hicks is young for AA ball.
      Arcia is otherworldly.
    1. kab21's Avatar
      kab21 -
      Quote Originally Posted by mnfanforlife View Post
      Kab can speak for his or herself. If you hate my posts so much, just stop reading them! It really is your choice to ignore or to become involved. Kab's facts support the Hicks-Hunter comparison very well. Thank you Kab
      If you'll notice that Hunter's 7pt BA improvement is a far cry from the 20 pt improvement that you projected by Hicks. Additionally there are dozens of examples where BA's fell by 10-30 pts. It's not like I cherry picked these examples to make my argument. If I had I wouldn't have included Hunter even though I knew you would latch onto the Hicks-Hunter without acknowledging just how rare it is for someone to do what Hunter did. Your analysis and projections continue to focus on the very unlikely scenarios while others live in a world of reality.

      Actually I did cherry pick the examples. I only included those that succeeded at the MLB level. That list would look far worse if I included the Restovich's and other AAA flameouts.

      Nobody is defending me. they are simply agreeing that your projections, analysis and thoughts are not very good.
    1. PseudoSABR's Avatar
      PseudoSABR -
      @mnfanforlife
      Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
      they are simply agreeing that your projections, analysis and thoughts are not very good.
      kab21 is right. Look, it stinks, but no one is going to be convinced by your gut-level optimism. It defies not only Hicks track record, but it also ignores the context and history of prospect development. While everyone has a right to an opinion, not every opinion is valid--that is, not every opinion is as hard-won--some research more, can put stats in better context, have a greater familiarity with development, knows well the difference between ceiling and career year, etc.

      Rather than suggest that those who don't agree with you are haters, while it takes some humility, accept that you could probably do a better job of projection and analyst. After all, witness again how you responded to Leviathan in one post:
      Quote Originally Posted by mnfanforlife View Post
      Haha! Sprinkled them with magic dust. Love it. Yeah, its fun to imagine the best in prospects. Sorry if I am wrong. I just am not afraid to be disappointed about this kind of stuff. It really is a gamble with no consequences for losing...for me. Not for everyone.
      You can't really expect anyone to take you seriously, when an optimism without consequences underpins your point of view, can you?

      Good luck, and I hope you have the courage to refine your approach.
    1. mnfanforlife's Avatar
      mnfanforlife -
      Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
      @mnfanforlife

      kab21 is right. Look, it stinks, but no one is going to be convinced by your gut-level optimism. It defies not only Hicks track record, but it also ignores the context and history of prospect development. While everyone has a right to an opinion, not every opinion is valid--that is, not every opinion is as hard-won--some research more, can put stats in better context, have a greater familiarity with development, knows well the difference between ceiling and career year, etc.

      Rather than suggest that those who don't agree with you are haters, while it takes some humility, accept that you could probably do a better job of projection and analyst. After all, witness again how you responded to Leviathan in one post: You can't really expect anyone to take you seriously, when an optimism without consequences underpins your point of view, can you?

      Good luck, and I hope you have the courage to refine your approach.
      Wow. We will see who is right or wrong about Hicks. As for your little "group think" session. Be careful what you're all so sure about...The vast majority of people at NASA believed the Challenger mission was "good to go" that fateful day, despite one engineer that was "crazy" enough to predict an O-ring failure. Obviously, these baseball projections mean nothing compared to the loss of human life. But its a good example of everyone going along with what the group thinks, even though they were all wrong.

      Hunter is a perfect comparison for Hicks. And I continue to assert that Hicks could very well have a career year of .290 with 25 HR's and 35 Sb's. I apologize for any confusion about the intentions of my "Hicks projection."

      Individuality is a good thing. Monotony of opinion is not. Be open-minded and allow positive things to enter your life.
    1. mnfanforlife's Avatar
      mnfanforlife -
      Quote Originally Posted by Oldgoat_MN View Post
      I think that mnfanforlife's projection was optimistic. However...
      indeed Torii Hunter's progress, with all the raw talent he had as a kid, has been in some ways mirrored by Hicks.
      It may be useful to point out that Hicks was 22 years old at New Britian. Only Arcia was 21 years old for the season.
      Hicks is young for AA ball.
      Arcia is otherworldly.
      You are always a quality human being. Thank you. No emotions. Just baseball.
    1. mnfanforlife's Avatar
      mnfanforlife -
      Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
      While everyone has a right to an opinion, not every opinion is valid--that is, not every opinion is as hard-won--some research more, can put stats in better context, have a greater familiarity with development, knows well the difference between ceiling and career year, etc.
      Please teach me everything you know! I want to learn from the best - - The TD "Experts" - - they are always correct about every prospect. And they never stray from low-to-moderate projections! I can't wait for my first lecture. Its about how to squash your imagination by being overly-concerned with statistics.
    1. mnfanforlife's Avatar
      mnfanforlife -
      Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
      It defies not only Hicks track record, but it also ignores the context and history of prospect development.
      Hicks minor league career is very similar statistically to Hunter's. And Hicks has been compared to Hunter since draft day. Hicks could very well hit .300 in MLB someday..like Hunter did twice in his 30's....It is not out of the question to assert that Hicks will develop into a very similar player. So what are you talking about here?
    1. mnfanforlife's Avatar
      mnfanforlife -
      Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
      If you'll notice that Hunter's 7pt BA improvement is a far cry from the 20 pt improvement that you projected by Hicks. Additionally there are dozens of examples where BA's fell by 10-30 pts. It's not like I cherry picked these examples to make my argument. If I had I wouldn't have included Hunter even though I knew you would latch onto the Hicks-Hunter without acknowledging just how rare it is for someone to do what Hunter did. Your analysis and projections continue to focus on the very unlikely scenarios while others live in a world of reality.

      Actually I did cherry pick the examples. I only included those that succeeded at the MLB level. That list would look far worse if I included the Restovich's and other AAA flameouts.

      Nobody is defending me. they are simply agreeing that your projections, analysis and thoughts are not very good.
      Look, thank you for the statistical breakdown you provided to try and convince me that Hicks cannot ever hit .290 in MLB. But, I have the right to project whatever I want. If you don't think its good, then dont post on the thread. And yes, they were defending you. There is a little support group of posters that like to be very modest with projections and never risk any criticism. Don't be afraid to make mistakes! This is baseball...have some fun! Your stats proved absolutely nothing about Hicks. However, I do appreciate the effort.

      You cannot prove anything about Hicks' future right now. Time will prove that. I understand your thinking, but I will never think like that. I'm not afraid to make mistakes about prospects and I invite criticism. Go ahead and tell me the problems you have with this post...I promise to be respectful.
    1. kab21's Avatar
      kab21 -
      Continue to cling to the player development exception instead of the norm.

      And again Torii Hunter isn't a .300 hitter because he did it (almost did it) twice in a 15 yr career. Players have lucky seasons all the time and Hunter had a .389 BAPIP (really lucky) last year. Do you also consider Kubel a .300 hitter?
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