• Free Agent Pitching: 20/20 Hindsight

    By the end of the coming weekend, the Twins will have reached the one-quarter mark of the season with 40+ games under their belts. Itís as good a time as any to reflect upon how some of the decisions made by General Manager Terry Ryan in building the teamís roster have turned out.

    As a team, the Twins have been hovering over the .500 mark most of the season and, after Monday nightís win over the White Sox, they are one game over the break-even point. Over the weekend, Ryan told 1500ESPN that .500 wasnít what he was looking for out of this team, that he wanted them to be contenders. Itís great, of course, for your teamís GM to say that kind of thing, but I think most fans would have been pretty satisfied with the prospects of a .500 year out of this Twins team.

    This article was originally posted Tuesday, May 14 at Knuckleballsblog.com.



    Terry Ryan (Photo: Knuckleballs/Jim Crikket)

    You also have to consider that those words were coming out of the same mouth that, last November, told TwinsDailyís John Bonnes that the Twins would be pursuing one of the ďpretty darn goodĒ pitchers on the free agent market last season and then went out and made Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey the cornerstones of the teamís free agent class.

    In that same interview, Ryan also told Bonnes that he felt the free agent pitching market was, ďthin,Ē when most of us felt there was a pretty solid group of middle-to-upper-half of the rotation arms available.

    Now, looking back over the first six weeks of the season, is it possible Terry Ryan was right?

    Back on November 20, I posted an article at Knuckleballs in which I shared my wish list of free agent pitchers for Ryan and the Twins to pursue. Other fans and writers were naturally sharing their own advice for the Twins GM about the same time. Letís see how our suggestions have been panning out compared to the guys Ryan actually signed for the Twins.

    Not many of us were suggesting the Twins should (or even could) sign Zack Greinke, who eventually signed a six-year deal for $159 million with the Dodgers. Greinke was actually off to a decent start until he broke his collarbone (or rather, Carlos Quentin broke Greinkeís collarbone). Maybe Greinke will bounce back and pay dividends on his deal with the Dodgers, but Iím not sorry the Twins didnít try to outbid the Dodgers for his services.

    I argued in my post that the Twins should go ahead and pursue not one, but two of the other big dogs among the free agent pitching class, Anibal Sanchez and Edwin Jackson.

    Sanchez is one guy who is putting up the kind of numbers you would hope for, so far, as his 2.05 ERA , 1.082 WHIP and 66 strikeouts in 52.2 innings would attest. However, he eventually re-signed with the Tigers (5 years/$88 million), so thereís certainly doubt as to whether he and his agent would ever have even considered a move to Target Field.

    Jackson, on the other hand, is not exactly earning his 4 year/$52 million contract with the Cubs. Yes, heís striking out almost one batter per inning pitched, but otherwise, his 6.02 ERA and 1.569 WHIP are pretty close to what the Twins are getting out of Mike Pelfrey (6.03/1.689)Ö and Ryan is on the hook for about $48 million less than Theo Epstein owes Jackson.

    The third pitcher on my wish list was Joe Saunders. I felt the Twins needed another lefty in the rotation and while he wasnít likely to be a headliner, Saunders looked to me like a good bet to be a solid middle of the rotation pitcher for the next couple of years. When he eventually signed with the Mariners for just one year and $6.5 million, I was pretty certain the Twins would regret not outbidding the Mís for Saundersí services (though I recall there was some talk about Saunders not being interested in pitching for the Twins, regardless).

    Saunders has pieced together a 3-4 record despite a 5.51 ERA and a 1.521 WHIP. Heís struck out exactly as many hitters (20) as Correia has for the Twins, but has walked more than twice as many batters. Correiaís ERA (3.09) and WHIP (1.200) are certainly looking better than Saundersí.

    So maybe my ideas, outside of Sanchez, werenít as good as I thought they were (and apparently not as good as the ideas Ryan and his staff were having at the time).

    But what about the other pitchers on the market last off season? With all of the talent we thought was out there, surely there must have been several pitchers that have turned out to make the GMs who signed them look smart.

    Many of the best options, like Sanchez, were re-signed by their 2012 clubs or, in some cases, had options picked up by their teams. But there were still a number of pitchers generating buzz among the Twins faithful.

    There was some chatter about Dan Haren, who ended up with the Nationals on a one-year deal for $13 million. Heís put up a 5.17 ERA and a 1.487 WHIP while striking out 27 batters in 38.1 innings over seven starts. Thatís not real impressive to me, but hey, he does have a 4-3 record if thatís what youíre in to.

    Brandon McCarthy was also a hot commodity in the blogging world. He got a two-year deal from the DíBacks totaling $18 million. For that, heís accumulated a 5.63 ERA, a 1.542 WHIP, and has gone winless. Iíve read that McCarthy has been ďunlucky,Ē as reflected in a higher than average batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Thatís fine. But if you buy that, you need to also give a couple of the Twins (such as Pelfrey and, to an even greater degree, Vance Worley) pitchers the benefit of the same doubt for their ďbad luck.Ē

    Ryan Dempster got beat up a bit by the Blue Jays on Sunday, but I donít think the Red Sox are doubting their two-year/$26.5 million investment too much, so far. Heís got a 3.75 ERA, even after giving up six earned runs to the Jays in five innings of work. His 1.146 WHIP is certainly competitive, but itís his 61 strike outs in 48 innings thatís perhaps more impressive. Again, I donít think there was ever any chance Dempster would sign with the Twins since he likely had more than enough suitors from among contending teams.

    Shawn Marcum, though, was certainly a guy that a number of Twins fans thought might be obtainable by the club. Marcum signed a one-year deal with the Mets for just $4 million. It turns out the Mets may have overpaid. Marcum has put up a nasty looking 8.59 ERA to go with a 2.045 WHIP. Heís thrown only 14.2 innings covering three starts and one relief appearance.

    Were you one of the fans touting Joe Blanton as a possible Twins rotation addition? If so, you might want to keep it to yourself. Blanton signed with the Angels for $15 million over two years and has repaid them with a 0-7 record covering eight starts. His 6.46 ERA and 1.870 WHIP would indicate his record is not terribly misleading.

    Itís starting to look like Terry Ryanís assessment of the pitching market as ďthinĒ might have actually been pretty accurate, isnít it?

    But certainly there must be some success stories, right? Of course there are.

    If, while the rest of us were laughing at the absurdity of the Royals signing Jeremy Guthrie to a 3 year/$25 million contract, you were actually going on the record saying it was a shrewd move certain to pay dividends, give yourself a pat on the back.

    Guthrie is 5-0 with the Royals and while heís not striking a ton of hitters out (30 Ks in 47.1 innings), heís put up a 2.28 ERA and a 1.183 WHIP in his seven starts for the Royals. Heís gone at least six innings in every start and has one complete game shutout of the White Sox to his credit. Oh yeah, and the Royals are three games above .500 going in to Tuesday nightís games, 1 Ĺ games behind Division leading Detroit.

    Of course, Guthrie isnít the only free agent pitcher making his GM look wise.

    Carlos Villanueva and Scott Feldman were among the pitchers Epstein added to the Cubs and itís pretty clear that neither of them are primarily responsible for the Cubs being six games under .500. Villanueva sports a 3.02 ERA and a 1.007 WHIP, but has only one win in seven starts to show for his efforts. Feldmanís ERA is even lower, at 2.53 and his WHIP is a very respectable 1.148. Heís actually gotten enough support to put up a 3-3 record.

    Maybe Iím wrong, but I just donít recall a lot of wailing about Terry Ryan allowing Villanueva and Feldman to slip through his fingers. And before you credit Theo Epstein for being so much more brilliant than Terry Ryan, take a look at what Epstein and the Cubs are getting in return for outbidding Ryan for the services of Scott Baker this season. Bakerís next pitch in a Cubs uniform (if he ever makes one) will be his first.

    There are probably a few more pitchers worth checking in on that are escaping me at the moment. But from the looks of things, Iím starting to think Correia and Pelfrey werenít such bad ideas after all. Iím not convinced Correia will continue to perform at the levels of his first few starts, but I do think that as Pelfrey continues to work out the post-TJ-surgery kinks, he may actually improve as the year goes on.

    Even with the benefit of perfect hindsight, Iím not 100% sure Iíd jump for joy at those free agent signings, but I certainly like the way theyíve turned out so far a whole lot better than most of the other options.
    This article was originally published in blog: Free Agent Pitching: 20/20 Hindsight started by SD Buhr
    Comments 69 Comments
    1. Seth Stohs's Avatar
      Seth Stohs -
      Weird... the Twins front office personnel that actually has the stress and pressure of making the right moves (and more important, not making the wrong moves) may not be as inept as so many want to think. Maybe they sort of have an idea... And maybe free agency is such a crap shoot that you never know what you're going to get, so you realize that developing and acquiring young players is better... Hmmm.
    1. COtwin's Avatar
      COtwin -
      Ah. This Crow tastes delicious!
    1. SD Buhr's Avatar
      SD Buhr -
      Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
      Weird... the Twins front office personnel that actually has the stress and pressure of making the right moves (and more important, not making the wrong moves) may not be as inept as so many want to think. Maybe they sort of have an idea... And maybe free agency is such a crap shoot that you never know what you're going to get, so you realize that developing and acquiring young players is better... Hmmm.
      Whoa, there, Seth. That's just crazy talk.
    1. Willihammer's Avatar
      Willihammer -
      Way too early to judge most of last offsesaon's signings.
    1. Oxtung's Avatar
      Oxtung -
      Bah the whole premise of this article is illogical. You can't use future results to judge a past event unless those results are knowable before the event occurs. All that mattered is what Ryan knew before he signed Correia and Pelfrey. Anything that has happened since then is irrelevant.
    1. Highabove's Avatar
      Highabove -
      Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
      Weird... the Twins front office personnel that actually has the stress and pressure of making the right moves (and more important, not making the wrong moves) may not be as inept as so many want to think. Maybe they sort of have an idea... And maybe free agency is such a crap shoot that you never know what you're going to get, so you realize that developing and acquiring young players is better... Hmmm.
      A lot of Fans believe that Terry Ryan is inept?? I must have missed the memo.
    1. 70charger's Avatar
      70charger -
      So Kevin Correia, Scott Feldman, Jeremy Guthrie, and Carlos Villaneuva were the good gets while Edwin Jackson, Joe Saunders, Dan Haren, and Shaun Marcum were busts?

      There are two possible deductions. First, the job of a general manager may be very hard. On the other hand, it may just be good strategy to sign ****ty pitchers.

      I love baseball.
    1. IdahoPilgrim's Avatar
      IdahoPilgrim -
      Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
      Bah the whole premise of this article is illogical. You can't use future results to judge a past event unless those results are knowable before the event occurs. All that mattered is what Ryan knew before he signed Correia and Pelfrey. Anything that has happened since then is irrelevant.
      Huh?
    1. IdahoPilgrim's Avatar
      IdahoPilgrim -
      There was a lot of hand-wringing last year about what the Twins did and did not do in the free agent market, most of which was based upon analysis of previous statistics and predictions based on them for the coming season.

      As I'm always reminded when I invest in a mutual fund, past results are no guarantee of future performance. Any idiot with a computer can make FA decisions based merely on past results. The truly effective GMs, the ones who stand the test of time, are those who, while consulting historical numbers, are able to look beyond them and correctly anticipate future results, both positive and negative, and make decisions based on those anticipated results.

      I agree it's still too early to call this year a success (or a failure). But so far TR is looking smarter than his competitors.
    1. USAFChief's Avatar
      USAFChief -
      Quote Originally Posted by sbknudson View Post
      There was a lot of hand-wringing last year about what the Twins did and did not do in the free agent market, most of which was based upon analysis of previous statistics and predictions based on them for the coming season.

      As I'm always reminded when I invest in a mutual fund, past results are no guarantee of future performance. Any idiot with a computer can make FA decisions based merely on past results. The truly effective GMs, the ones who stand the test of time, are those who, while consulting historical numbers, are able to look beyond them and correctly anticipate future results, both positive and negative, and make decisions based on those anticipated results.

      I agree it's still too early to call this year a success (or a failure). But so far TR is looking smarter than his competitors.
      1. Those two statements seem fairly contradictory to me.

      2. TR is looking smarter if one considers only Kevin Corriea's start. Not so much if you also look at Mike Pelfrey (and include Vance Worley as a trade acquisition.) It's also a somewhat self serving argument when you rule out several pitchers ("too expensive," "wouldn't have signed here anyway") and pass off Pelfrey as "I think he'll improve as the season goes on" while ignoring the possibility those other pitchers you're glad you didn't sign might improve as well.
    1. mike wants wins's Avatar
      mike wants wins -
      Twins starters are pretty much bottom 5 in every category in the AL this year, not sure how things are really any better so far than the end of last year. Maybe someone can explain that to me. That was before Pelfrey's awesome start today.

      Not sure how you can ignore the results Pelfrey is delivering, or how you can just decide some guys would never have signed here.

      Also, not sure how drafting and developing players is not a crap shoot, I guess a higher percent of HS kids and college students come up from the minors than I thought.. Also, name the guy in the rotation this year drafted and developed by this vaunted system. Or name the best pitchers the last few years, and if they were drafted and developed by this system.
    1. ThePuck's Avatar
      ThePuck -
      Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
      Twins starters are pretty much bottom 5 in every category in the AL this year, not sure how things are really any better so far than the end of last year. Maybe someone can explain that to me. That was before Pelfrey's awesome start today.

      Not sure how you can ignore the results Pelfrey is delivering, or how you can just decide some guys would never have signed here.

      Also, not sure how drafting and developing players is not a crap shoot, I guess a higher percent of HS kids and college students come up from the minors than I thought.. Also, name the guy in the rotation this year drafted and developed by this vaunted system. Or name the best pitchers the last few years, and if they were drafted and developed by this system.
      more like bottom 5 in MLB? Going into today, tehy were 28th in rotation ERA...that just got a little bit worse today with Pelfrey doing what Pelfrey does...
    1. ThePuck's Avatar
      ThePuck -
      Kevin Correai ERA in April: 2.23. In May: 5.71.
    1. SgtSchmidt11's Avatar
      SgtSchmidt11 -
      To be fair to Dan Haren, his last few starts have been much better than the start so I could see him rebounding a bit.
    1. SD Buhr's Avatar
      SD Buhr -
      I don't think it's at all contradictory to say it's too early to call TR's dip in to FA during the offseason a success or failure AND to say that so far his decisions look better than a lot of the other GMs who went fishing for pitching. Unless, of course, you choose to ignore the words "so far".

      With the exception of Marcum, I think all of the SPs mentioned have at least 7-8 starts under their belts. I don't think it's premature to at least take a look at how the various FA options have fared thus far. 1/4 of a season is not insignificant, especially considering how many of the pitchers signed one-year contracts.

      I do, however, believe it is far too early to cast any sort of judgment on the trades Ryan made. Obviously, Worley hasn't been good, but I don't know anyone who believes he was much more than a throw-in by he Phillies. It was May that was the Twins' primary target in that deal and, as with the Span trade, we won't know how Ryan fared on that deal until we find out what kind of Major League pitcher the prospect turns out to be.

      The point, and I'll stand by it, is that SO FAR it looks like Ryan may have been right about it being a "thin" starting pitching market and he certainly could have spent a lot more money without getting any better results during the first 1/4 of the season.
    1. SD Buhr's Avatar
      SD Buhr -
      Let me just also add this as my final comment on this subject: Just as I believe 1/4 of the season is long enough to warrant a look at how all of these FAs are faring, I also believe it is long enough for Ryan and the Twins to figure out that their rotation, as currently constituted, is not good. Whether it's from internal options at AAA (or AA) or by looking for external options, there's no reason to wait much longer to try SOMETHING to improve the starting pitching.

      If Ryan truly does believe that playing .500 ball is not good enough, then it really is up to him to do his part to improve on that record by continuing to try to fix the rotation.
    1. Oxtung's Avatar
      Oxtung -
      How a FA pitches after he has signed is irrelevant to passing judgement on the signing. The signing and the subsequent season are two distinct and separate events and must be judged as such. All that matters is what Ryan knew and believed before he signed Correia and Pelfrey.

      Here is a hypothetical to help illustrate my point. A GM signs a FA pitcher. After the signing the pitcher is in a car crash and can never play baseball again. Did the GM make a bad decision by signing said pitcher? Of course not, unless you think the GM should have forseen the car accident before he signed the pitcher. If you want a slightly less abstract version think about the extension just given to the Blue Jays JA Happ. Does the GM deserve flak because Happ took a line drive to the head and may never be the same pitcher?

      Pelfrey is an example of the opposite. Ryan knew that Pelfrey was coming off of TJ surgery, knew that no one had ever come back that quickly let alone be good. On top of that Pelfrey has been a below average pitcher for his career. These are all things that were known to Ryan before Pelfrey signed. Obviously things have not worked out well for Pelfrey so far this season.

      So, it's not about what a pitcher does after the signing. It is about what the GM knewbefore the pitcher was signed that is important.
    1. Willihammer's Avatar
      Willihammer -
      Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
      Here is a hypothetical to help illustrate my point. A GM signs a FA pitcher. After the signing the pitcher is in a car crash
      Carl Pavano?
    1. jorgenswest's Avatar
      jorgenswest -
      The way out of the hole is to develop young pitching and improve the defense.

      They have a lot of work to do in both areas but acquiring Meyer and May are a step in the right direction.
    1. Twins Fan From Afar's Avatar
      Twins Fan From Afar -
      Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
      How a FA pitches after he has signed is irrelevant to passing judgement on the signing. The signing and the subsequent season are two distinct and separate events and must be judged as such. All that matters is what Ryan knew and believed before he signed Correia and Pelfrey.

      Here is a hypothetical to help illustrate my point. A GM signs a FA pitcher. After the signing the pitcher is in a car crash and can never play baseball again. Did the GM make a bad decision by signing said pitcher? Of course not, unless you think the GM should have forseen the car accident before he signed the pitcher. If you want a slightly less abstract version think about the extension just given to the Blue Jays JA Happ. Does the GM deserve flak because Happ took a line drive to the head and may never be the same pitcher?

      Pelfrey is an example of the opposite. Ryan knew that Pelfrey was coming off of TJ surgery, knew that no one had ever come back that quickly let alone be good. On top of that Pelfrey has been a below average pitcher for his career. These are all things that were known to Ryan before Pelfrey signed. Obviously things have not worked out well for Pelfrey so far this season.

      So, it's not about what a pitcher does after the signing. It is about what the GM knew before the pitcher was signed that is important.
      I respectfully disagree with just about everything here. Terry Ryan, and the Twins' front office, earn their salaries, in large part, by predicting future performance. Whether it's an 18 year-old outfielder who is eligible for the MLB Draft, or a free agent pitcher coming off a tough season or a significant injury. That's precisely the expertise that the Twins, and their fans, rely on with Ryan & Company.

      Your argument cites completely unforeseeable incidents such as car crashes and line drives to the head. Come on. There's many, many more (foreseeable) Jason Marquis stories each year than there are (unforeseeable) J.A. Happ stories.

      Of course, I agree that part of it is what the GM knew beforehand, but everyone has access to that information. The more important part is what the GM does with that information, and how he is able to use that information to predict future performance.
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