• Twins MLB Draft Profile: Ryne Stanek, RHP

    Who IS This Guy?

    Ryne Stanek (6’ 4, 190) is a right-handed pitcher for the Arkansas Razorbacks. The Mariners selected him in the 3rd round of the 2010 draft, but Stanek elected to head to SEC to face the best hitters in college baseball. After enrolling in Arkansas, there was some hope that he would be eligible for the 2012 draft, but he narrowly missed the cutoff. (Players must turn 21 within 45 days of the draft.) Stanek entered this season, his junior season, in a three-horse race to be the first overall selection in the 2013 draft. He’s closing out his season with lower expectations, but still is a dark-horse candidate to be the third collegiate pitcher selected.


    Who Could He Be?

    There are scouts out there that would point to his heavy mid-90s fastball, mid-80s slider and improving curveball and changeup and call him a definite Top 10 pick with a future as a frontline starter. There are other scouts out there that could see him as a dominant closer. Stanek has had a penchant for overthrowing his slider, which is no fault of his own as the pitch selection comes from the dugout. He’s also failed to consistently get the results that you’d expect out of a pitcher with his “stuff”. Is it a lack of deception? Is it because of his mechanics? Is it an over-reliance on his slider? Those are questions that have him all over draft boards.

    How Soon Could He Be Playing In Target Field?

    Stanek has had success in the most advanced collegiate league in the country. He led his team to the College World Series as a sophomore and has hopes of helping his team get back there again. The likelihood of whatever team drafts him is to limit his innings after signing. If he were to end up with the Twins, he would report to Fort Myers, get acclimated to the organization and likely pitch out of the bullpen in a limited role for the rest of 2013. Next year he would be shifted to starting, likely first in Fort Myers before heading to New Britain. Depending on his success in the second half, you could make a case for being in the show sometime in the summer of 2015, though the following summer would be much more likely.

    (That time-table would be very similar to the one that Alex Meyer is on; Meyer could factor in this summer, but more likely make his Target Field debut next summer.)

    If The Twins Draft This Guy, They Messed Up Because....

    …they bought into the player they saw last summer and believe that with the right instruction Stanek can be a front-of-the-rotation starter. But based on the “what have you done for me lately?” evaluation, Stanek hasn’t been great and isn’t the fourth-best player in the draft, ceiling-wise or ability-wise.

    Stanek’s Razorbacks are still active in the SEC Tournament and will also advance to the NCAA tournament, so there still is time to raise his stock. Stanek will be making his first start of the SEC Tournament on Thursday afternoon at 4:30, meeting up with #2 LSU in a game that can be watched on ESPN3.

    If the Twins Draft This Guy, They Nailed It Because….

    …they recognized their need for advanced pitchers and see that Stanek has a chance to fill that void. They might also be able to convince his advisor that he wasn’t going to go Top 10 otherwise (though there’s a chance) and be able to bank some savings for the later rounds. Others might argue that they nailed it simply because they drafted a pitcher in a position where some feel they need to take a pitcher.

    ---

    There is no doubt that Ryne Stanek would be a welcome addition to the stable of pitchers the Twins are developing. He would rank only behind Alex Meyer in terms of fastball velocity for starting pitchers and, more than likely, would factor into the Twins top 5-7 prospects. While everything remains very fluid up to and even during the draft, signs point towards Stanek coming off of the board in the 8-12 range, much later than when the Twins are on the clock.

    Previous Twins Daily Draft Profiles:
    Monday, May 20 - Sean Manaea, SP
    Tuesday, May 21 - Austin Meadows, OF
    Wednesday, May 22 - Trey Ball, SP/OF

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    This article was originally published in blog: Twins MLB Draft Profile: Ryne Stanek, RHP started by Jeremy Nygaard
    Comments 7 Comments
    1. mike wants wins's Avatar
      mike wants wins -
      I'd say it is not unreasonable for him to be the pick, but that he's about 7-10th on the list right now......
    1. Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
      Jeremy Nygaard -
      I agree. After posting last night I read something about how there are a lot of parallels between Matt Harvey coming out of UNC three years ago and Ryne Stanek today.

      Basically, Harvey struggled at times, some thought he was destined to be a reliever, there wasn't so many questions about his stuff, but how it was used and the results it was(n't) getting.

      Fast forward three years, Stanek has struggled at times, some think he's destined to be a reliever, has the stuff, but isn't getting the results (consistently) that he's capable of.

      That's the upside that Stanek potentially offers. If I were running the Twins, I ultimately think I'd go a different direction, but he'd be a name that comes in and out of the conversation. Plus, I think his initial asking price will be higher than Shipley's (though I bet their bonuses are pretty close).
    1. mike wants wins's Avatar
      mike wants wins -
      Agree with everything you just typed, Jeremy. It's one reason I wish you could trade draft picks. I'd do everything I could to get like 3 top 10 picks, and take a bunch of pitchers with upside. Stewart, Stanek, Shipley......
    1. Wanklenuts's Avatar
      Wanklenuts -
      The more I read about this draft, the more I have no idea what I want the Twins to do. Ideally, I would like them to get a front line starter, but after Gray and Appel, I'm not sure who I want. Certainly there are pitchers with top of the rotation ceilings, but they all have a ton of risk. I think I'm starting to lean towards a position player despite the lack of pitching depth in the organization.
    1. cmb0252's Avatar
      cmb0252 -
      At one point he was definitely going to be a top 5 pick and now he could fall into the teens. Has a great fastball and a chance to have three above pitches but he is way too inconsistent for my liking. Also, he has a very violent delivery which is a red flag for some teams. Does have front of the rotation stuff though.
    1. Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
      Jeremy Nygaard -
      Stanek came out dealing today... his fastball was in the low-to-mid-90s, hitting as high as 97 in the first inning. His mid-80s slider is also working. It's obviously early (after 1), but if he can make a(nother) statement against LSU, I'd have to believe his stock will be on the rise.

      I watched a full game of his earlier this year and didn't have a ton of concern about his delivery, but I'm not the trained eye of Paker Hageman. I have seen that some have "long-term durability" concerns about his delivery... but when isn't there? Parker!?
    1. Seth Stohs's Avatar
      Seth Stohs -
      Jim Callis's new mock draft has Stanek going 8th overall to the Royals... Mock Draft 2.0: Shades Of Gray - BaseballAmerica.com
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