• Twins MLB Draft Profile: Reese McGuire, C

    Who IS This Guy?

    Reese McGuire is a left-handed hitting high school catcher that is ready for the majors defensively, but will need several years to develop similar offensive skills. He has been projected to go anywhere in the draft from among the top five to 20th overall. The Minnesota Twins have been linked to him by Jim Callis of Baseball America and are definitely interested.

    Besides McGuire’s skill set, he is intriguing for another reason: by signing him at a below-slot level value, the Twins could bank that leftover money for more aggressive (and expensive) draft choices later in the draft.

    Who Could He Be?
    His floor would be Drew Butera – a poor-hitting but defensively superior backup catcher. McGuire’s “pop” time – the amount of time it takes for him to receive a throw and get it to second base – is already at a major league level.

    Offensively, he is not nearly as developed but he projects to have some left-handed power (10-15 HR) and in this video Keith Law thinks he can hit .270 or .280 in the majors. Those stats line him up to be something like AJ Pierzynski only with Yadier Molina’s glove. That's a very valuable player.

    How Soon Could He Be Playing In Target Field?

    The last first round catcher the Twins drafted moved up in two-and-a-half years – but that was Joe Mauer. Four years is a much more realistic timetable, so he would debut in 2017, when Mauer is 34 years old, and a year before Mauer’s contract expires.

    If the Twins Draft This Guy, They Messed Up Because...

    If the Twins draft McGuire they are likely going to be widely criticized, some of which will be fair and some not. The widely held sense is that the Twins need to add pitching, that they are too enamored with defensive catchers and that they are unwilling to spend money. Drafting McGuire would reinforce these perceptions.

    But beyond the public relations problem this would cause, there are some real concerns. They will have passed on three college-age arms – Braden Shipley, Ryne Stanek and Sean Manaea - each of which could help alleviate a desperate need in the organization. They would also then have passed on a high school pitcher with as much upside as any arm in the draft – Kohl Stewart – and several other high-upside talents.

    Finally, high school catchers are inherently very risky draft picks. In last night’s Gleeman And The Geek podcast, Jeremy Nygaard listed the high school catchers drafted in the first round since Mauer in 2001. The only one who has made any kind of mark is Neil Walker – and he had to move from catcher.

    If the Twins Draft This Guy, They Nailed It Because...

    The Twins are in the unpleasant position of drafting fourth in what is widely considered to be a three-player draft. In any other sport, the wise strategy would be to move down in the draft, but MLB draft picks can’t be traded. However, if they sign McGuire for #7 money instead of someone else for #4 money, they can use the money they saved for “overdrafting” in later rounds, essentially adding two first round picks.

    For instance, if the Twins draft McGuire and sign him for #7 money, they would have an extra $1.3M to add to their budget for their 2nd round (43rd overall) pick, which is slotted at $1.3M. So they would have $2.6M to offer to the player they chose, who will be the 34th player chosen, which is as much as the 14th overall pick.

    That’s important in the MLB draft, because players drafted in high school or as juniors in college don’t need to sign. For instance, Manaea’s stock has been dropping as he has dealt with injuries. Once he falls into the second round, he’s unlikely to sign with whoever drafts him and teams know this, so he just keeps dropping. But the Twins could grab him there, offer him close to the money he originally thought he might get and end up with (essentially) two first round picks. Or, if the Twins feel like the value in this draft is in later rounds, they could use similar tactics in rounds three through ten.

    That’s the best case scenario, but the Twins would be taking a big risk that a player like Manaea falls to them and is willing to sign. This also requires a lot of preparation – you don’t want to draft a player if you’re not SURE he'll sign.

    MLB Draft Player Profiles:


    For MLB Draft Day Coverage, make sure you follow
    @TwinsDaily on Twitter!
    This article was originally published in blog: Twins MLB Draft Profile: Reese McGuire, C started by John Bonnes
    Comments 26 Comments
    1. cmathewson's Avatar
      cmathewson -
      No high school catcher is "ready for the majors defensively". Maybe he's good at catching 80 MPH fastballs and 70 MPH slurves. Maybe he's got a strong arm. But that does not mean he can call a game, manage an at bat, or set the defense. There's a lot more to catching than having tools.
    1. jokin's Avatar
      jokin -
      If they Twins draft McGuire the Twins are likely going to be widely criticized, some of which is fair and some of which is not. Perception is that the Twins need to add pitching, that they are too enamored with defensive catchers and that they are unwilling to spend money. Drafting McGuire would reinforce all of those paradigms.
      I concur with Christy above, what catcher in HS is ready for the majors, this is an absurd scouting report if that's what they're trying to sell to the public.

      I think the criticism is more likely to revolve around the incredibly risky madness of not drafting the best player available, and instead going for a guy with tons of questions surrounding him- getting the #4 overall pick- a guy who has a chance to be mentioned in the same breath as "the next Drew Butera" as the downside consolation prize??? WT???- and surrounding the history of the remote likelihood of a HS catcher in recent years without a certified hitting tool ever making a mark in the big leagues at the plate would be foolhardy.

      Simply put, Risks taken with this high of a pick must have incredible upside reward. I don't see it from this guy, and so what if you get Manea later on and he has the sore-armed history already on his resume to realistically project as just another breakdown candidate, a la, Alex Wimmers?
    1. jokin's Avatar
      jokin -
      And what if you're "sure" that Manea will sign, but 3 clubs ahead of you also got that same assurance from his agent? Can TR win a real-time in-draft bidding battle with 3 or more other clubs who also are thinking along these lines? Very sketchy.
    1. Seth Stohs's Avatar
      Seth Stohs -
      Manae a May be available when the Twins make their 2nd round (maybe 3rd round!) pick.
    1. beckmt's Avatar
      beckmt -
      Far too risky a move for me. Would rather take Stewart on a flyer, may be able to get him for slightly under slot, and still work on getting a better pick later
    1. Rick Niedermann's Avatar
      Rick Niedermann -
      To risky for me too. Although Butch Wynegar was starting at 19 for the Twins and hit .260. If there were some way to project this kid to hit .260 in 4 years this scenario might be worth the risk. I am not sold on Kohl Stewert either. His videos show him all over the place. Control looks to be an issue. Shipley or Stanek would be much better picks. I guess we can always hope that Houston or Colorado try this scenario and one of the Big 3 drops to us.
    1. Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
      Jeremy Nygaard -
      Reese McGuire did catch Kohl Stewart in the Pefect Game All-American Classic and if Stewart was only throwing 80 mph fastballs with 70 mph slurves then I wouldn't Stewart either.

      McGuire is advanced behind the plate. In all facets of the defensive aspect of the game. Obviously he'll have work to do. There aren't a lot (or any?) amateur catchers that get the "he's going to make pitchers so much better like Yadi does", that's the type of defensive talent McGuire is. Are there questions? Absofreakinlutely. But defensive backstops are guys that Twins value way too high anyway, so when you have one that is a consensus Top 15 talent, I'd be surprised if the Twins brass didn't get a chubby talking about him and consider him at #4.
    1. cmathewson's Avatar
      cmathewson -
      Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
      Reese McGuire did catch Kohl Stewart in the Pefect Game All-American Classic and if Stewart was only throwing 80 mph fastballs with 70 mph slurves then I wouldn't Stewart either.

      McGuire is advanced behind the plate. In all facets of the defensive aspect of the game. Obviously he'll have work to do. There aren't a lot (or any?) amateur catchers that get the "he's going to make pitchers so much better like Yadi does", that's the type of defensive talent McGuire is. Are there questions? Absofreakinlutely. But defensive backstops are guys that Twins value way too high anyway, so when you have one that is a consensus Top 15 talent, I'd be surprised if the Twins brass didn't get a chubby talking about him and consider him at #4.
      You don't spend your #4 overall pick on the future Drew Butera (his floor).
    1. Pitz's Avatar
      Pitz -
      Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
      Maybe he's good at catching 80 MPH fastballs and 70 MPH slurves.

      Well then he's perfectly suited for catching the Twins staff.
    1. mike wants wins's Avatar
      mike wants wins -
      Awful idea, just awful. What happens if they take this guy, and there is no good underslot guy available in round 2? You've passed on much, much higher upside players, and ended up with a HS catcher.....ugh. Just. Don't. Do. It.
    1. grover738's Avatar
      grover738 -
      No. You don't use the 4th overall pick on a player with limited upside, not with Kohl Stewart on the board. If they want to take the safe route, take Shipley. Plus, things are lining up for the Twins to have a real talent influx in 2014/15/16. This guy would not be ready by 2016, but a college arm or very talented HS pitcher (Stewart) probably would be.

      Plus, they have Hermann, Josmil Pinto at AA, and Koch at Hi-A. Not loaded at catcher by any means, but it's nowhere near as big of a need as starting pitching or middle infield.
    1. Seth Stohs's Avatar
      Seth Stohs -
      Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
      You don't spend your #4 overall pick on the future Drew Butera (his floor).
      Is that the Twins scouting report on him, or is it the scouting industry's report on him? Maybe the Twins love his defense (which does matter) and believe that he has the size, swing, strength, power, approach to be better than average at an important position?

      I'm definitely not advocating taking McGuire... But he is a consensus Top 10 guy which means he isn't terrible.
    1. mike wants wins's Avatar
      mike wants wins -
      I guess that's a rhetorical question, Seth......they have 1 SP in their minors we are pretty sure will be in the majors next year....take a pitcher. Sure would be nice to have a rotation of Appel, Gibson, Diamond, guy taken this year, Worley/Meyer......
    1. Siehbiscuit's Avatar
      Siehbiscuit -
      BPA...if its McGuire, take him. If it's not (and its not), move on and take BPA!
    1. nicksaviking's Avatar
      nicksaviking -
      Any team that makes a first round pick based on defense needs a new front office. As much as some may like to think defense is the most important part of baseball, it isn't. At least not any longer. It's about pitching and driving the ball.

      Stay away, not a safe pick, not a smart pick, it's just wrong. I agree with Grover, if the Twins want to go underslot pick Shipley. Though I would not be happy if they went underslot.
    1. Seth Stohs's Avatar
      Seth Stohs -
      Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
      I guess that's a rhetorical question, Seth......they have 1 SP in their minors we are pretty sure will be in the majors next year....take a pitcher. Sure would be nice to have a rotation of Appel, Gibson, Diamond, guy taken this year, Worley/Meyer......
      Whoever they draft at #4 likely won't be ready next year either.
    1. mike wants wins's Avatar
      mike wants wins -
      Well, Wacha and Gausman are already up from this last draft....and there are players from 2011 and 2010 that other teams have drafted that are up.....more than a few, actually. But I agree, this is the Twins, and that player will not be up next year either, but that wasn't the whole point of the post, not even the key part really.
    1. diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
      diehardtwinsfan -
      If the Twins were confident that this ankle/hip thing with Manaea is a fluke and that they knew he'd be there in round 2, I could see this, but truth be told, I doubt Manaea drops that far, nor do I feel comfortable with this pick.
    1. Twins Twerp's Avatar
      Twins Twerp -
      Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
      Any team that makes a first round pick based on defense needs a new front office. As much as some may like to think defense is the most important part of baseball, it isn't. At least not any longer. It's about pitching and driving the ball.

      Stay away, not a safe pick, not a smart pick, it's just wrong. I agree with Grover, if the Twins want to go underslot pick Shipley. Though I would not be happy if they went underslot.
      Isn't pitching part of defense?
    1. jokin's Avatar
      jokin -
      Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
      Any team that makes a first round pick based on defense needs a new front office. As much as some may like to think defense is the most important part of baseball, it isn't. At least not any longer. It's about pitching and driving the ball.

      Stay away, not a safe pick, not a smart pick, it's just wrong.
      I agree with Grover, if the Twins want to go underslot pick Shipley. Though I would not be happy if they went underslot.
      Hear, here! There can't be many clubs left in baseball that adhere to such archaic thinking about prioritizations. Though the baseball draft isn't like football or basketball, there would still be yet more brewing of discontent among the Twin fanbase paying public should the FO choose to take such a foolhardy path with a very, very valuable #4 pick. There are FA options for proven catchers....why?? why?? why??
©2014 TwinsCentric, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Interested in advertising with Twins Daily? Click here.