• Twins MLB Draft Profile: Braden Shipley, RHP

    Who IS This Guy?
    Braden Shipley is a former shortstop that only moved to the mound full-time last year. He is still among the top 10 talents in the draft because of his low-effort delivery and the effectiveness of some of his pitches. His recent performances for Nevada have him moving quickly up the draft boards.

    In the past, he has hit 99 mph with his fastball but he is more consistently in the 92-95 mph range. His best pitch is his changeup, which counters his fastball nicely. His change sits at 83-86 mph and he uses great arm speed to deceive the batter. He does have a curveball but he doesn't have a feel for this pitch yet, probably because of his inexperience. Overall, he can throw strikes and this is a trait the Twins have coveted in the past.

    One NL scout recently said, "When he is firing on all cylinders, he's as good as any pitcher not named Appel in this class." That's high praise and it could be tough for teams to pass him by.

    Who Could He Be?
    His arm strength and athleticism make him an intriguing pitching option especially since he is so new to the position. He had a great start to the spring season and some hiccups in the middle. More recent starts have been better and this could help his draft stock.

    Shipley will need to work on his curveball if he is going to develop into a top of the rotation pitcher. He doesn't have much feel for this pitch and this is evident in the type of break he gets while throwing it. With more repetition, this pitch could move from the below average range and help to make him more effective.

    He might not be in the elite class of college arms in this draft but he isn't far behind. The ceiling for him might be a number two pitcher on most teams. With the Twins, he could end up being a front of the rotation hurler for multiple seasons.

    How Soon Could He Be Playing In Target Field?
    Out of all of the college pitchers taken early in the draft, Shipley might need the most development time in the minors. His fastball and change-up are great but he is going to need time to work on his curveball. This will only come with repetition in the minors.

    If he signed right away, the Twins would likely send him to the rookie leagues for the end of the 2013 season to pitch out of the bullpen. Next season, he would get the chance to be a starter for Cedar Rapids. After spending the entire season with the Kernels, he could move to Fort Myers for 2015.

    In 2016, he would make his way to New Britain with a shot at going to Rochester. Because of his inexperience, it would seem that 2017 would be the earliest he could make an appearance with the Twins.

    If the Twins Draft This Guy, They Messed Up Because...
    There are more experienced college pitchers in this draft. Shipley could be a wild card especially if his secondary pitches aren't honed in the minors.

    His fastball and change-up combination could make him a deadly bullpen weapon. With the fourth pick in the draft, but a team doesn't necessarily want a good relief pitcher. The front office and the fans want a front of the line starter and Shipley might not have all of the tools to reach this lofty goal.

    It would also take some time for him to develop in the minor leagues and the Twins might be back in contention before he is ready to take over a rotation spot.

    If the Twins Draft This Guy, They Nailed It Because...
    The Twins need pitchers with upside. With Mark Appel and Jonathan Gray likely off the board, Shipley is the next best collegiate option. Other prep arms like Kohl Stewart could take even more time to develop in the minor leagues. Some members of this organization might lose their jobs before a younger arm makes it to the big leagues.

    Shipley's upper 90s velocity makes him a power arm this organization has been lacking. In recent weeks, he has shown more control over his curveball and this could make him a devastating pitcher.

    At the beginning of the spring season, there were other collegiate pitchers in front of him. But by draft day, he could be the third college arm off of the board.

    Twins Daily MLB Draft Player Profiles:




    For MLB Draft Day Coverage, make sure you follow
    @TwinsDaily on Twitter!
    This article was originally published in blog: Twins MLB Draft Profile: Brandon Shipley, RHP started by Cody Christie
    Comments 35 Comments
    1. mike wants wins's Avatar
      mike wants wins -
      Only the Twins would take that many years for a college arm to make the majors from the 4th overall pick. KLAW and others who have worked in real baseball have ripped them for putting college pitchers at such low levels, it isn't just me. BTW, how's that working? How many good pitchers have they developed in the last 10 years?

      I'd be ok with this pick, but start him in A ball this year, not rookie ball. Why take him over Stewart?
    1. Brad Swanson's Avatar
      Brad Swanson -
      Great profile! I'm not opposed to Shipley for the Twins, but the fact that he needs more development than the average college pitcher does take some of the shine off of him. I'd prefer Stewart and possibly even Ball, but Shipley looks promising too. This "weak" draft might end up being stronger than everyone thinks.
    1. nicksaviking's Avatar
      nicksaviking -
      Agree with Mike. A collegiate pitcher picked number four overall has no business in Rookie League. Probably not even low A. To me it seems guys who have yet to develop a change up have the most development time, that doesn't seem to be the case here.

      Still, if the Twins agree with the above time table and development issues, there really is no reason not to draft Stewart instead.
    1. birdwatcher's Avatar
      birdwatcher -
      mike, you DO realize that this is Cody's estimated timetable, don't you? It's amazing that you automatically go into your standard nitpicking mode. So predictable.
    1. birdwatcher's Avatar
      birdwatcher -
      mike, remind us about where Gibson started his time in the minors. He was the 22nd pick, right? I'm sure you believe that only the Twins would have started him in high A ball, whereas every other organization, because they're well-run and know what they're doing, would have placed Gibson in AA ball.
    1. Seth Stohs's Avatar
      Seth Stohs -
      Yeah, if there's any chance that he takes that long to get to the big leagues, just take Stewart and give him that time table. I think he would report to Ft. Myers after signing. They would likely have him work 2-3 games out of the bullpen in E-Town before pushing him to Cedar Rapids. I'd have no problem with him spending the rest of the summer with the Kernels since he is more raw. The fact that he's only pitched for a couple of years would cause me to be a little more conservative this year. But no matter what, I think he starts 2014 in Ft. Myers and spends a half year there before moving up to New Britain. Like other top pitchers taken, he would then get a spring training invite in 2015 and be up sometime during the middle of that season.

      This is, of course, assuming he stays healthy. I have a concern about guys that play a lot of an offensive position in college. I just think that they have a higher injury risk. I think I'd prefer Stanek to this guy. Velocity isn't everything.
    1. Seth Stohs's Avatar
      Seth Stohs -
      The Twins have highly-drafted college pitchers fly through the lower levels.

      Matt Garza went to ETown for a little bit to keep his innings down after signing, but he went from Ft. Myers to New Britain to Rochester to the Twins in his first full season.

      Kevin Slowey went two levels. Duensing moved quickly. Logan Darnell got to AA in a hurry. Alex Wimmers was about to move quickly. Kyle Gibson went from Ft. Myers to Rochester. It's a myth that the Twins don't promote top pitching prospects up pretty quickly.

      Shipley sounds more raw than even Alex Meyer. The Nationals started Meyer in Low A and only got him 9 starts in High A. The Twins pushed him to New Britain this spring.
    1. gunnarthor's Avatar
      gunnarthor -
      Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
      How many good pitchers have they developed in the last 10 years?
      12? 13? Liriano, Boof, Baker, Garza, Slowey, Blackburn, Duensing, Crain, Neshek, Perkins, Diamond, Mijares, Guerrier. All those guys had at least one 2 WAR year.
    1. Wanklenuts's Avatar
      Wanklenuts -
      Seth, why are you concerned about college position players being more injury prone? I kind of like the fact that his arm should have less wear on it than someone who has been pitching through high school and college. I'm really intrigued by Shipley especially since he hasn't been pitching for very long. Since he has only pitched 1 year, there should be a lot of room for improvement. And with his fastball-change up combination, his absolute floor should be solid reliever. I know that isn't what you want from the number 4 pick, but I like that better than the floor of Stewart, which is probably AA. Not that I don't like Stewart, but Shipley seems like he has a higher floor with a probably slightly lower ceiling.
    1. birdwatcher's Avatar
      birdwatcher -
      Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
      12? 13? Liriano, Boof, Baker, Garza, Slowey, Blackburn, Duensing, Crain, Neshek, Perkins, Diamond, Mijares, Guerrier. All those guys had at least one 2 WAR year.
      mike wants wins presents the same rhetorical question all the time. He never refutes this answer. He either ignores it or rejects it.

      AJ Pierzynski was a product of the farm system who was exchanged for Nathan and Santana, but of course, these guys don't count in the eyes of mike wants wins because it would render his argument completely mute.
    1. mike wants wins's Avatar
      mike wants wins -
      Liriano, Boof - not drafted. Sorry, should have read "drafted and developed" and "starting pitchers".....that's the issue for this team, they have no starting pitching. Blackburn was good for 2 years, that's not enough. Slowey was an odd case to me. I still think he is better than what he showed here. Garza, no idea why they traded him. I count 2, Baker and Garza that were good for any period of time. That's not enough, not when you need 5, and you will not sign good free agents.

      It just isn't.

      Btw, looks like Seth mostly agrees with me on the timeline.....

      As for Garza starting down low, that was a different time, with a totally different signing deadline. Also, note that Gibson was the 22nd pick, not 4th pick. Big difference. Also, they are holding Gibson back now, even though he is clearly ready, and clearly one of the 5 best pitchers in the organization. Pretty sure I did not say start Gibson in AA, did I? I said that it should not take that long for a college pitcher to come up tot he majors, moving one level at a time. IF that is his likely path, then he's at least as raw as Stewart, and Stewart is more advanced and younger, take Stewart.

      And, as I pointed out KLAW and others who have actually worked in FOs have not been complimentary of the Twins approach to college pitchers.

      But, you are right, this is someone's path that does not work for the Twins, so it is certainly possible they would draft Shipley and move him faster. Seth is right, when they have a good college pitcher, they do tend to move him faster than any other type of player they draft. So I stand corrected on that statement.
    1. nicksaviking's Avatar
      nicksaviking -
      Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
      12? 13? Liriano, Boof, Baker, Garza, Slowey, Blackburn, Duensing, Crain, Neshek, Perkins, Diamond, Mijares, Guerrier. All those guys had at least one 2 WAR year.
      Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
      mike wants wins presents the same rhetorical question all the time. He never refutes this answer. He either ignores it or rejects it.

      AJ Pierzynski was a product of the farm system who was exchanged for Nathan and Santana, but of course, these guys don't count in the eyes of mike wants wins because it would render his argument completely mute.
      Well not to get in the middle of anything, but none of the guys Gunnar listed had sustained success at the top of the Twins rotation. Perhaps you could argue Garza would have, though if he is actually a #1 or #2 may be debatable. Ryan nailed Santana as a great Rule V pick but he's the only ace caliber pitcher the Twins have had sustained success with since Frank Viola.

      If you refuse to pay an ace in free agency, you need to need to find them in the draft or through trades. This club has not been doing that. Mike may be incorrect as there have been some good pitchers developed, however this team is lacking great pitchers and you need those to win championships.
    1. mike wants wins's Avatar
      mike wants wins -
      Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
      mike wants wins presents the same rhetorical question all the time. He never refutes this answer. He either ignores it or rejects it.

      AJ Pierzynski was a product of the farm system who was exchanged for Nathan and Santana, but of course, these guys don't count in the eyes of mike wants wins because it would render his argument completely mute.

      Not true at all.......I usually say "drafted and developed" I left that off this time. Sorry. Look, if they are so good at it, name the starting pitcher on the roster this year they drafted? Name the good one on last year's roster they drafted. Explain why they have the worst ERA they've ever had the last two years. Explain why they felt the need to trade two starting OFers this year for pitchers.

      Blackburn had a very limited run of effectiveness. To me, he's a failure of the system, but I guess if a guy is good for 2-3 year, that's good enough.

      Liriano and Boof were traded for, not drafted.

      Garza and Baker are successes to me, though they strangely traded one, and the other was hurt.

      Duensing, Crain, Neshek, Perkins, Mijares, Guerrier are relievers, or ineffective starters.

      Diamond was a trade also. And, I'd say the jury is still out on him.

      So, in review, they have zero starting pitchers on the roster this year they drafted, or even traded for and developed. They had no good pitchers last year on the roster they drafted (though the Baker thing is the killer there). This year and last are two of the worst years in starting pitching history.

      Fangraph WAR rankings for starting pitching for the Twins:
      2013: 3rd worst in the AL (thanks for swiching leagues, Hous), 25th overall
      2012: last in all of MLB
      2011: 5th worst in AL, 19th overall, with 1/4th of the WAR coming from Pavano, not drafted or developed by MN

      So, how am I wrong, that they are bad at developing pitchers, given the results the last three years? And, they have 1 guy in the minors that looks ready for next year right now for sure. Meyer and May might be, might. But neither is tearing up AA right now, and both came over with question marks (most online experts stating that May is a future reliever). So, what is the likelihood they are much better next year, from internally drafted and developed players?
    1. mike wants wins's Avatar
      mike wants wins -
      It's not empty rhetoric to me, maybe you all draw a different conclusion from the last three years, and the likely internally driven results next year for starting pitching. But to me, this is bad, very, very bad.
    1. gunnarthor's Avatar
      gunnarthor -
      Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
      Liriano, Boof - not drafted. Sorry, should have read "drafted and developed" and "starting pitchers".....that's the issue for this team, they have no starting pitching. Blackburn was good for 2 years, that's not enough. Slowey was an odd case to me. I still think he is better than what he showed here. Garza, no idea why they traded him. I count 2, Baker and Garza that were good for any period of time. That's not enough, not when you need 5, and you will not sign good free agents.
      Why does it have to be either drafted or signed by free agency? Their are many ways to acquire good starting pitching, as the Twins have shown. Ignoring trades, waiver claims and rule V pick ups to then make the claim that the Twins can't create a good rotation ignores the reality of how baseball teams are made and ignores the reality that, during most of 2000s, the Twins strength was pitching behind a strong rotation and great bullpen. How those arms were acquired showed that Ryan knew how to create a rotation. He is doing those same things now.

      And why are we now expecting that the rotation has to be 5 guys who are sustainable for at least 3 years or longer? Starting pitchers break down all the time. A few years ago it looked like Atlanta was going to have a rotation built around Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens. The two combined for 2 200ip seasons.

      Ryan was able to build a good rotation behind Santana (rule v) and Radke (drafted) by plugging in guys like Milton (Knoblauch trade), Mays (Roberto Kelly trade), Lohse (part of the Aguilera trade), Silva (Milton trade), Liriano (AJ trade), Boof (AJ trade), Baker (drafted), Slowey (drafted), Perkins (drafted), Garza (drafted), Blackburn (drafted), Duensing (drafted) etc. That's what he's trying to do now.
    1. mike wants wins's Avatar
      mike wants wins -
      How's it worked the last three years, or looking next year? I provided a ton of data about the outcomes the last three years, of his approach.

      It is cool with me to disagree, but claiming I use rhetoric w/o data is not fair at all.
    1. gunnarthor's Avatar
      gunnarthor -
      Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
      Ryan nailed Santana as a great Rule V pick but he's the only ace caliber pitcher the Twins have had sustained success with since Frank Viola.
      Radke was a better pitcher than Viola.
    1. nicksaviking's Avatar
      nicksaviking -
      Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
      Radke was a better pitcher than Viola.
      Well then I can change my stance to Santana was the only ace caliber pitcher the Twins had sustained success with since Bert Blyleven in the 1970's because while I loved Brad Radke, he was no ace.
    1. fairweather's Avatar
      fairweather -
      Couple other things 1) Even when Blackburn was "good" he allowed more hits than any other pitcher in the league. So should he be counted? 2) What's wrong with a little rhetoric and banter? The pitchers have to be acquired via FA or draft because the Twins have shown a irrational and continued reluctance to pay for strike outs on any level. They don't draft the power arms because they demand to be paid above slot. They don't sign strike out pitchers because they demand long contracts. Ultimately they're saying that they want the used Honda Civics of the pitching world but they want us fans to pay new Cadillac prices for their product. Sure it's nice that the Twins seem to be one of the better teams in the league at finding the hidden gems through the rule 5 and waiver wire but the only reason they concentrate so hard on that stuff is because it's cheap. Maybe if they put that much time and effort into figuring out which power arm that is going to want to be paid over slot is actually worth gambling on the team would be going in a better direction, but NO that would be spending time figuring out a way to spend money rather than throwing another few million in old Pohlads money bin.
    1. diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
      diehardtwinsfan -
      Ignoring trades when looking at the Twins success with pitching is like Terry Ryan ignoring free agency when filling holes... It matters. The Twins have shown quite a bit of success of finding good pitching prospects in other systems.

      What they haven't done of late is develop an ace, and they are hardly alone in that. Of course picking late in the first round for most of the decade is part of the reason, as is the fact that they've spent most of their high picks in recent memory on position players.
©2014 TwinsCentric, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Interested in advertising with Twins Daily? Click here.