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  • Rochester Recap: Kyle Gibson - The Good & The Bad

    After going 5-3 on a recent eight game road trip against the Charlotte Knights (White Sox) and Gwinnett Braves (Braves), the Rochester Red Wings returned home this weekend to play four games against the Toledo Mud Hens (Tigers). After dropping the opener 8-1 last night, the Wings were hoping Kyle Gibson would be able to get them back to their winning ways.

    Entering today’s game with a record of 5-5 in 12 starts this season, Gibson has won three of his last four games and has pitched six plus innings in all four of those starts.
    Per Terry Ryan, the only thing keeping Gibson in Rochester is a lack of consistency. Since Samuel Deduno, P.J. Walters, Pedro Hernandez and several others have been promoted to the Twins, opportunities to play in Minnesota have been available. However, the biggest name in the Red Wings' rotation remains in Rochester.

    In today’s start, the overall numbers are mostly good. Gibson pitched seven innings giving up four hits, allowing one run, striking out six but also walking five. Thanks to a Brian Dinkelman home run and a Drew Butera sacrifice fly, Rochester went on to win the game 3-1; this gave Gibson his 6th win of the season, improved his record to 6-5 and lowered his ERA to 3.16.

    However the number that looms large in this start is the five walks. While the free passes didn't result in runs, they are still something you hate to see. It’s hardly going to be considered a bad start, but if you’re looking for an imminent promotion those walks might be an obstacle. Today, the Twins lead the league in fewest walks allowed with just over 2.6 per game and are tied for fewest in all MLB. Yielding walks is something Minnesota tends not to do.

    The stats' splits between wins and losses are mind-blowing for Gibson. In his seven starts ending in a no-decision or loss, Gibson has pitched 34 innings, giving up 45 hits, 25 earned runs, 10 walks and 29 strikeouts, compiling a 6.62 ERA.

    Compare this to the stats in the six wins Gibson has, and the numbers are jaw dropping: In those six winning starts, he’s pitched 45.2 IP with 22 H, 3 ER, 16 BB, and 40 strikeouts, producing a 0.60 ERA. When Gibson is on track he’s proven to be almost unhittable; when he struggles, it’s as though he’s a completely different pitcher.

    While there is definitely an opportunity for Gibson to make his mark in Minnesota this year, it’s going to take a few more of the good outings and fewer of the mediocre to poor outings if he’s going to get the call to the Twins.
    This article was originally published in blog: Rochester Recap: Kyle Gibson - The Good & The Bad started by Christopher Fee
    Comments 23 Comments
    1. tjsyam921's Avatar
      tjsyam921 -
      It is mind blowing the difference in his w/l outings. Twins definitely don't need another inconsistent pitcher. Hopefully he can string some strong starts together before he hits his innings limit.
    1. mike wants wins's Avatar
      mike wants wins -
      Always an excuse. Next year we will read how he did not pitch much in the majors in 2013, and we just need to he patient and wait for 2015 to see the real Gibson.
    1. Chance's Avatar
      Chance -
      He is averaging more walks in his wins than in his losses...? Correct? maybe he is trying to pitch to contact to much in his bad starts and trying to miss bads and get some swing and misses in his good starts? I don't know but it's interesting.
    1. spycake's Avatar
      spycake -
      Quote Originally Posted by Chance View Post
      He is averaging more walks in his wins than in his losses...? Correct?
      Actually, according to the numbers in the article, he has a slightly HIGHER walk rate in his wins than in his losses/no-decisions. Strikeout rate is similar too. And he's only allowed 3 HR all year. Hit rate is the only real difference, which obviously leads to more runs and losses.

      And you will see similar splits for just about any player -- for example, Justin Verlander this year has a 2.82 ERA in his wins and a 6.55 ERA is his losses. Joe Mauer hits a lot better in Twins wins than Twins losses too. It's a pretty meaningless split when viewed in the aggregate.

      I guess the frequency of wins (or win-quality games) is probably more important, and to Gibson's credit, 4 of his last 5 starts have been wins, with 2 or fewer runs allowed in each win. Not sure what happened with the 5 walks, but his BB/9 rate is still just 2.9.
    1. RJ Parallax's Avatar
      RJ Parallax -
      I was at the Red Wings game and watched him pitch. He had a easy 1-2-3 first, struggled in the 2nd to find his command but was average the rest of the game. Needs a bit more fine tuning before he comes up....
    1. PseudoSABR's Avatar
      PseudoSABR -
      Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
      Always an excuse. Next year we will read how he did not pitch much in the majors in 2013, and we just need to he patient and wait for 2015 to see the real Gibson.
      Seriously? The implication of these types of posts aren't just that the Twins are incompetent in their player development, but that they are self-sabotaging. Which is utterly ridiculous.
    1. mike wants wins's Avatar
      mike wants wins -
      I never mentioned the Twins in that post.....no place did I mention the Twins. That post was about people on this board.....not sure why you assumed I was talking about the Twins.
    1. TwinsFanInPhilly's Avatar
      TwinsFanInPhilly -
      More meaningless drivel from the most negative individuals
    1. mike wants wins's Avatar
      mike wants wins -
      More name calling, rather than discussing the actual post.......
    1. TwinsFanInPhilly's Avatar
      TwinsFanInPhilly -
      I never mentioned the you in that post.....no place did I mention you. That post was about people on this board.....not sure why you assumed I was talking about you

      And by the way, you were talking about people on the board with your excuses comment, and not about the actual post, so maybe you should do some self reflection rather than pointing fingers.
    1. mike wants wins's Avatar
      mike wants wins -
      I make more positive than negative comments, some people are just obsessed with the ones they view as negative.

      We hear, every day, that certain players need time in MLB, then to be sent down, then to come back up to succeed. Or, that it helps players to get exposure to MLB games, that the 2nd year they are more comfortable. We've heard it on player after player the last couple of years. so maybe I'm just jaded on this topic, maybe I am being a bit negative here, but do you really think it won't come up next year? We won't be reading here that "he only got 5 starts last year, we need to show patience"?

      Maybe I'm wrong, maybe we won't read that. Maybe I should not have assumed that. But every week we read a new reason why people here don't think he should be up yet. And, for those of us that want him up, it's tiresome for a new thread to be created every week explaining why he should not be up.
    1. PseudoSABR's Avatar
      PseudoSABR -
      Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
      I never mentioned the Twins in that post.....no place did I mention the Twins. That post was about people on this board.....not sure why you assumed I was talking about the Twins.
      It's why I used the word "implication."
    1. mike wants wins's Avatar
      mike wants wins -
      But I was mot implying anything about the twins, that post was about this site, and how every week there is an article, or post, about why Gibson should not be up. It had zero to do with the twins.
    1. Winston Smith's Avatar
      Winston Smith -
      Gibson is at 80 innings pitched. With the Twins stated limit of 130 +/- he has about 8 starts left. If they really want him to see some action at "major league level" time is running out.
    1. h2oface's Avatar
      h2oface -
      Half good and half bad............ sounds like he would be perfect for the rotation right now....... sure beats mostly bad........ and with a total ERA just over 3, how can that be worse than the 5 and 6's the Twins now sport? Time is running out with the innings limit. This is hard to understand.
    1. troyhobbs's Avatar
      troyhobbs -
      I think Gibson is MLB ready and should've been called up instead of Walters. However, Walters has been decent so I think once the Twinkies are officially out of it they can release Pelfry and finally give Gibson a shot.
    1. cmathewson's Avatar
      cmathewson -
      He has been very good to excellent in four out of the last five starts. No Twin starter has been as consistent over the last month. All other measures they can cite constitute double standards. Walks? Look at Deduno.
    1. Riverbrian's Avatar
      Riverbrian -
      Quote Originally Posted by twins twerp View Post
      some twins fans need to get laid...might change your whole perspective on things. Yes i am implying that some are negative even when it doesnt make sense to be. She doesnt have to be hot...just hot enough to keep you from being such a$$h0les all the time. The bickering and twins hating is obnoxious and i for one am getting tired of it.
      lol
    1. amjgt's Avatar
      amjgt -
      On the G&TG Weekly podcast they mentioned that this is the same team that Gibson recently shutout. I think that worth noting, but for a different reason that Gleeman was. Gleeman was implying that since he recently shut them out, this outing is a relative disappoinment (maybe that's too strong of a word).

      I take a different stance. We've been hearing this year, as our super-prospects were tearing up their respective A-ball leagues that it's important for their development to have the pitchers see them for the second time and make adjustments. Only then will we get a true feel for their development.

      Why can't the same go for pitchers? This Toledo team has recently faced Gibson, presumably developed their scouting report on him, more fully, and Gibson was still able to hold them to 1 run over 7 innings. Perhaps Gibson was able to get the Mud Hens to chase outside the zone on the first go-around. This game Toledo laid off those pitches and drew some walks, but ultimately Gibson was able to work around those walks and give his team a great chance to win.
    1. jokin's Avatar
      jokin -
      Quote Originally Posted by amjgt View Post
      On the G&TG Weekly podcast they mentioned that this is the same team that Gibson recently shutout. I think that worth noting, but for a different reason that Gleeman was. Gleeman was implying that since he recently shut them out, this outing is a relative disappoinment (maybe that's too strong of a word).

      I take a different stance. We've been hearing this year, as our super-prospects were tearing up their respective A-ball leagues that it's important for their development to have the pitchers see them for the second time and make adjustments. Only then will we get a true feel for their development.

      Why can't the same go for pitchers? This Toledo team has recently faced Gibson, presumably developed their scouting report on him, more fully, and Gibson was still able to hold them to 1 run over 7 innings. Perhaps Gibson was able to get the Mud Hens to chase outside the zone on the first go-around. This game Toledo laid off those pitches and drew some walks, but ultimately Gibson was able to work around those walks and give his team a great chance to win.
      Well-stated. If Gleeman said anything like this (which I'm sure he did), he's guilty of overanalysis and ridiculous expectations. What did he expect from Gibson for an encore? A no-hitter with 19 Ks?

      Gibson is in his first full year coming off of TJ, it is a given that his performances should be somewhat uneven. Given that, I'm not sure if he's more uneven than the next "average" pitcher who never had the surgery- and Gibson's numbers aren't average- he's overall the #2 pitcher in FIP in the IL- even with the uneven performances.
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