• Trade Rumors Breakdown: The Market Ceiling

    Here's today's top three trade deadline stories of the last couple days and how it might impact the Minnesota Twins:

    #3 - The Reliever Market

    Ken Rosenthal breaks down the "supply" side of MLB relievers for the trade deadline - and the Twins are completely omitted. That's a little surprising considering the Twins' seller status and the presence of Glen Perkins on the roster, but maybe Terry Ryan's protests about the subject are actually being heard. But there could be some other candidates too.

    Lost in the recent slumps of Jared Burton and Brian Duensing is that they were both probably the most tradeable commodities in the Twins bullpen. Burton, prior to his groin injury, had been fantastic - a true closer candidate for a contending team looking to solidify it's late-inning strategy. And Duensing would work well with any of number of teams that are short on left-handed relief help, such as the Nationals, who we profiled this week.


    #2 - Yankees Could Use Catching

    It was revealed that Yankees starting backstop to start the year, Francisco Cervelli, is being shut down for two weeks before beginning his rehab again. The bulk of New York's playing time at catcher this year has gone to Chris Davis, who is sporting a .614 OPS. His backup has been Austin Romine, who has an OPS of .331 in his 31 games. Yikes. Even Drew Butera would be an upgrade on that.

    And now I notice that Ryan Doumit, after playing catcher just once the week before, started at catcher two times in the four games of the Yankees series. I don't know if that was planned - you'll recall Joe Mauer was out of the lineup completely on Monday - but we'll see how much time Doumit gets behind the plate in Yankee Stadium if he winds up in Gotham. There is a real fit there. I wonder how Yankees manager (and former catcher) Joe Girardi will feel about Doumit's defense.

    I suppose one could also speculate about moving a $23 million contract off the books, if one so desired.


    #1 - The Price Of Garza (and Perkins?)

    By far, the most talked about and valuable player on the trade market right now is Cubs starting pitcher Matt Garza, and there is quite a bit of speculation that he might be moved soon, with several teams pursuing him. But one of those teams will not be the Orioles, because they traded for Scott Feldman earlier this week.

    Yesterday we learned why. The Cubs were asking for Jonathan Schoop, a 21-year-old shortstop in AAA who ranked #50 nationally in Keith Law's preseason prospect list and Eduardo Rodriguez, a 20-year-old starter who was just moved up to AA and was #100 on Law's preseason list. From their stats this year, it doesn't look like either one is due for any major moves on the prospect lists.

    By comparison, here are how the Twins ranked on Law's list last offseason:

    • Miguel Sano - 11 (moved up to 6 in an midseason Top 25 update)
    • Byron Buxton - 22 (moved up to 2 in a midseason Top 25 update)
    • Kyle Gibson - 41
    • Aaron Hicks - 49
    • Oswlado Arcia - 59
    • Alex Meyer - 61
    • Eddie Rosario - 65


    The best equivalant trade I can come up with in the Twins system would be Aaron Hicks and JO Berrios.

    So now we know what the ceiling is for acquiring top prospects in this trade market. This was the premier guy, a starter, on the market a month before the deadline, and it was turned down by the other team. And it still wasn't anywhere near a Top 20 prospect.

    If you're looking to speculate on what it would require to pry Glen Perkins away, keep this in mind.
    This article was originally published in blog: Trade Rumors Breakdown: The Market Ceiling started by John Bonnes
    Comments 25 Comments
    1. tjsyam921's Avatar
      tjsyam921 -
      If the Twins could get a short stop that can catch the ball AND hit it and a starting pitching candidate I would say make the trade. If TR could pull off a Aj type trade it would be worth it. 2-3 years from now Perkins most likely won't be as good as he is now when we are contenders.
    1. jorgenswest's Avatar
      jorgenswest -
      The Yankees have shown they value framing pitches more than any other organization. They have shown it with all of their catching decisions since Girardi took over. Jose Molina credits Girardi and the Yankees for helping him refine this skill.

      Unless they have decided that they have been wrong about the importance of managing the strike zone, they are not going to seek Doumit in a trade. They can improve their offense in other spots and without impacting their pitching staff.

      http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...-molina-others
    1. beckmt's Avatar
      beckmt -
      Interesting note, but a closer can really effect a team more than a starter. Twins should expect at least 1 major talent for moving Perkins, but he is under club control for another 3 years. That also has an effect on price. Still would like to see an AJ type trade, but do not expect it.
    1. Old Twins Cap's Avatar
      Old Twins Cap -
      Don't think the Yankees catcher is named Chris Davis. Stewart much more likely. If it was Davis, that would be quite something, with all the home runs and RBIs, I think the Yankees would be set.
    1. diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
      diehardtwinsfan -
      I'd imagine Garza and Perkins would fetch a similar haul. I'd certainly trade Perkins for those guys. I'm somewhat curious what Baltimore was supposedly willing to send over for Pelf. I highly doubt it was either of them.
    1. diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
      diehardtwinsfan -
      Thinking about this a bit more... What if the Twins offered Pelfrey to Baltimore plus some of their international bonus money... Does anyone think that this would net one of those two prospects? That might not be a bad way to bring in a higher ceiling guy closer to the show... Just speculating a bit, but it fills a need and gives the other team an immediate way to add another high ceiling guy into their system.
    1. SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
      SpiritofVodkaDave -
      I don't like the idea of the twins giving away ANY international money. They have been doing pretty damn good in the international market.

      The orioles or anyone else isn't going to give up anything more than a third tier prospect for pelfrey (unless he turns some huge corner)

      If Pelf can come back somewhat "strong" id almost prefer the twins keep him around and try to sign him to a team friendly deal for 2014 (maybe a 2 year deal) this team needs arms.
    1. Rick Blaine's Avatar
      Rick Blaine -
      Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
      If Pelf can come back somewhat "strong" id almost prefer the twins keep him around and try to sign him to a team friendly deal for 2014 (maybe a 2 year deal) this team needs arms.
      Pelfrey signed a one year contract for a reason--- so he can sign a "pelfrey friendly deal" for 2014. There is no way he comes back to Minnesota next year. If he isn't traded before the deadline-- he will find someone who will offer more than the Twins will this winter. He is already improving.
    1. SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
      SpiritofVodkaDave -
      Quote Originally Posted by Rick Blaine View Post
      Pelfrey signed a one year contract for a reason--- so he can sign a "pelfrey friendly deal" for 2014. There is no way he comes back to Minnesota next year. If he isn't traded before the deadline-- he will find someone who will offer more than the Twins will this winter. He is already improving.
      He wanted to come to Minnesota as he has family in the area, why wouldn't he want to stick around? Also, lets not pretend he is going to command 100 million....the Twins can afford what he will cost... I doubt he gets anything more than 2 years and 6-8 mil a year from ANYONE
    1. Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
      Brock Beauchamp -
      Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
      He wanted to come to Minnesota as he has family in the area, why wouldn't he want to stick around? Also, lets not pretend he is going to command 100 million....the Twins can afford what he will cost... I doubt he gets anything more than 2 years and 6-8 mil a year from ANYONE
      On top of that, the Twins rarely have problems retaining players. It seems that while it may be tricky to get them here in the first place, once a player is here, they seem to like the area and team and stick around if offered market value (Pavano, Doumit, etc.).
    1. Forever34's Avatar
      Forever34 -
      I hope the FO dangles Perkins but only at a king's ransom. Given his age, ability, and great contract there is no reason he shouldn't be part of the rebuilding process and still there when it is done.

      Wonder if packaging players together would net better prospects. For instance sending Morneau, Doumit, plus a reliever or someone to the Yankees in exchange for one of their better prospects.
    1. Rick Blaine's Avatar
      Rick Blaine -
      The Twins won't pay Pelfrey $ 6-8 million and isn't he a Boras client? I think Scott Baker had the same idea but its not working out for him. Jack Morris has relatives in the area and in 1991 he signed a one year contract with the Twins with no intention of returning in 1992. World Series hero or not. It happens.
    1. Rick Blaine's Avatar
      Rick Blaine -
      Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
      On top of that, the Twins rarely have problems retaining players. It seems that while it may be tricky to get them here in the first place, once a player is here, they seem to like the area and team and stick around if offered market value (Pavano, Doumit, etc.).
      Not to argue, just a comment on retaining players-- Hunter, Nathan, Crain, Guerrier, Cuddyer and Kubel all left pretty much as soon as they could.

      If Pelfrey strings a few more good starts together he likely will be a candidate to be traded later this month.
    1. Red Holstein's Avatar
      Red Holstein -
      I think Mauer would wave his no-trade clause to Boston. What kind of offer would the Redsox have to make? It's an intriguing thought. They could patch up a few holes by trading Mauer, and add those players to the incoming group of Hicks, Buxton, Arcia, Sano, Rosario, Pinto, etc.

      Mauer's prime years are being wasted. Him and Fenway are the perfect match. Ryan should make the phone call, and do it if he can get a king's ransom.
    1. old nurse's Avatar
      old nurse -
      Quote Originally Posted by Rick Blaine View Post
      Not to argue, just a comment on retaining players-- Hunter, Nathan, Crain, Guerrier, Cuddyer and Kubel all left pretty much as soon as they could.

      If Pelfrey strings a few more good starts together he likely will be a candidate to be traded later this month.
      Hunter was here for 9 years, hardly leaving as soon as he could. Most of the others were here longer than the minimum 6 years. Crain wanted to close, the Twins did not use him in that role with Nathan's injury. He did not win the job in Chicago either.
    1. Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
      Brock Beauchamp -
      Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
      I'd imagine Garza and Perkins would fetch a similar haul. I'd certainly trade Perkins for those guys. I'm somewhat curious what Baltimore was supposedly willing to send over for Pelf. I highly doubt it was either of them.
      Perkins is way more valuable than Garza. Perkins is locked up for several years at a ridiculously cheap rate and Garza hits free agency in four months.

      Perkins is attractive to the mid-market teams of MLB while none of them can afford to give up a prospect haul for a guy who will demand a 5-6 year deal worth $80m+ after the season.
    1. Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
      Brock Beauchamp -
      Quote Originally Posted by Rick Blaine View Post
      Not to argue, just a comment on retaining players-- Hunter, Nathan, Crain, Guerrier, Cuddyer and Kubel all left pretty much as soon as they could.

      If Pelfrey strings a few more good starts together he likely will be a candidate to be traded later this month.
      Hunter is the only guy on that list that the Twins made even a cursory attempt to keep.
    1. jay's Avatar
      jay -
      Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
      Hunter is the only guy on that list that the Twins made even a cursory attempt to keep.
      My impression was they did with Cuddy and Nathan also, but as with Hunter, pastures were much greener elsewhere.
    1. Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
      Brock Beauchamp -
      Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
      My impression was they did with Cuddy and Nathan also, but as with Hunter, pastures were much greener elsewhere.
      Nathan, maybe... But the Twins signed Willingham the day before Cuddyer went to the Rockies. They couldn't have been too interested in retaining ol' Dimples.
    1. SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
      SpiritofVodkaDave -
      Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
      Nathan, maybe... But the Twins signed Willingham the day before Cuddyer went to the Rockies. They couldn't have been too interested in retaining ol' Dimples.
      Cuddyer was out of their price range, they got Willingham and Doumit for less than Cuddyer.
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