• Trade Rumors Breakdown: The Market Ceiling

    Here's today's top three trade deadline stories of the last couple days and how it might impact the Minnesota Twins:

    #3 - The Reliever Market

    Ken Rosenthal breaks down the "supply" side of MLB relievers for the trade deadline - and the Twins are completely omitted. That's a little surprising considering the Twins' seller status and the presence of Glen Perkins on the roster, but maybe Terry Ryan's protests about the subject are actually being heard. But there could be some other candidates too.

    Lost in the recent slumps of Jared Burton and Brian Duensing is that they were both probably the most tradeable commodities in the Twins bullpen. Burton, prior to his groin injury, had been fantastic - a true closer candidate for a contending team looking to solidify it's late-inning strategy. And Duensing would work well with any of number of teams that are short on left-handed relief help, such as the Nationals, who we profiled this week.


    #2 - Yankees Could Use Catching

    It was revealed that Yankees starting backstop to start the year, Francisco Cervelli, is being shut down for two weeks before beginning his rehab again. The bulk of New York's playing time at catcher this year has gone to Chris Davis, who is sporting a .614 OPS. His backup has been Austin Romine, who has an OPS of .331 in his 31 games. Yikes. Even Drew Butera would be an upgrade on that.

    And now I notice that Ryan Doumit, after playing catcher just once the week before, started at catcher two times in the four games of the Yankees series. I don't know if that was planned - you'll recall Joe Mauer was out of the lineup completely on Monday - but we'll see how much time Doumit gets behind the plate in Yankee Stadium if he winds up in Gotham. There is a real fit there. I wonder how Yankees manager (and former catcher) Joe Girardi will feel about Doumit's defense.

    I suppose one could also speculate about moving a $23 million contract off the books, if one so desired.


    #1 - The Price Of Garza (and Perkins?)

    By far, the most talked about and valuable player on the trade market right now is Cubs starting pitcher Matt Garza, and there is quite a bit of speculation that he might be moved soon, with several teams pursuing him. But one of those teams will not be the Orioles, because they traded for Scott Feldman earlier this week.

    Yesterday we learned why. The Cubs were asking for Jonathan Schoop, a 21-year-old shortstop in AAA who ranked #50 nationally in Keith Law's preseason prospect list and Eduardo Rodriguez, a 20-year-old starter who was just moved up to AA and was #100 on Law's preseason list. From their stats this year, it doesn't look like either one is due for any major moves on the prospect lists.

    By comparison, here are how the Twins ranked on Law's list last offseason:

    • Miguel Sano - 11 (moved up to 6 in an midseason Top 25 update)
    • Byron Buxton - 22 (moved up to 2 in a midseason Top 25 update)
    • Kyle Gibson - 41
    • Aaron Hicks - 49
    • Oswlado Arcia - 59
    • Alex Meyer - 61
    • Eddie Rosario - 65


    The best equivalant trade I can come up with in the Twins system would be Aaron Hicks and JO Berrios.

    So now we know what the ceiling is for acquiring top prospects in this trade market. This was the premier guy, a starter, on the market a month before the deadline, and it was turned down by the other team. And it still wasn't anywhere near a Top 20 prospect.

    If you're looking to speculate on what it would require to pry Glen Perkins away, keep this in mind.
    This article was originally published in blog: Trade Rumors Breakdown: The Market Ceiling started by John Bonnes
    Comments 25 Comments
    1. beckmt's Avatar
      beckmt -
      Most clubs now, even the Yankees are very reluctant to give up their higher level, close to major league ready prospects. That is why Terry Ryan and his scouts have done well at identifying undervalued prospects at the A level and getting them to the Twins. Perkins or Mauer if he would waive his no trade would have to bring a huge ransom back to the Twins to make a deal. In Perkins case he could be making a difference between making the playoffs and going home at the end of the regular season. I would expect a prospect in the clubs top 10, probably between 6 and 8 and a couple of lower 15 - 30 prospects at least(I may be high). Mauer would need even more. Most clubs would not be willing to pay the price. That is why you see the majority of the deals for lower end prospects are salary dumps more than baseball trades. That is what the majority of the contenders want and why most of the deals go down in the last week of July.
    1. jay's Avatar
      jay -
      Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
      Cuddyer was out of their price range, they got Willingham and Doumit for less than Cuddyer.
      Right. I think once they heard what kind of offers he was getting, they went ahead with Hammer.
    1. Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
      Brock Beauchamp -
      Quote Originally Posted by beckmt View Post
      In Perkins case he could be making a difference between making the playoffs and going home at the end of the regular season. I would expect a prospect in the clubs top 10, probably between 6 and 8 and a couple of lower 15 - 30 prospects at least(I may be high).
      You're waaaaaaaayyy too low on Perkins.

      In most farm systems, Perkins would command the #1 prospect and maybe the #5 prospect (assuming that #1 prospect isn't in the top 15 of all MLB prospects). He's a dominant reliever locked up for 3 1/2 more seasons at a just-above-arbitration price.

      Prospects are nice but they're just that, prospects. Perkins is a dominant MLB pitcher closing games and under contract for several seasons.
    1. jay's Avatar
      jay -
      Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
      You're waaaaaaaayyy too low on Perkins.

      In most farm systems, Perkins would command the #1 prospect and maybe the #5 prospect (assuming that #1 prospect isn't in the top 15 of all MLB prospects). He's a dominant reliever locked up for 3 1/2 more seasons at a just-above-arbitration price.

      Prospects are nice but they're just that, prospects. Perkins is a dominant MLB pitcher closing games and under contract for several seasons.
      I'd have to agree. The guys that have been moved recently are FAs at the end of the year, so the return is meh. Perk provides a crap-ton of surplus value over multiple seasons... which is exactly why the Twins shouldn't (and, I think, won't) trade him.
    1. howieramone's Avatar
      howieramone -
      Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
      I'd have to agree. The guys that have been moved recently are FAs at the end of the year, so the return is meh. Perk provides a crap-ton of surplus value over multiple seasons... which is exactly why the Twins shouldn't (and, I think, won't) trade him.
      Jay, respectfully disagree. I hate to see a Gopher leave, but IMO the only thing that can stop the parade is the lack of starting pitching. If we can get the haul you and Brock believe is possible, I feel we should take it.
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