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  • Comparing Rosario to Top 2B Prospects

    Heading into the 2013 season, there were five 2B prospects that were generally considered to be among the top 100 in baseball: Jedd Gyorko of the San Diego Padres, Nick Franklin of the Seattle Mariners, Kolten Wong of the St. Louis Cardinals, Jonathan Schoop of the Baltimore Orioles, and Delino DeShields Jr. of the Houston Astros.

    My question is this: how does Eddie Rosario stack-up statistically against these more heavily hyped prospects?

    Rankings


    • Baseball America
      • Jedd Gyorko (2B)- 71
      • Nick Franklin (SS/2B)- 79
      • Kolten Wong (2B)- 84
      • Delino DeShields Jr. (2B)- 99
      • Jonathan Schoop- NR
      • Eddie Rosario- NR

    • Baseball Prospectus
      • Nick Franklin (2B)- 72
      • Jonathan Schoop (2B)- 80
      • Jedd Gyorko (3B)- 84
      • Kolten Wong (2B)- 90
      • Delino DeShields Jr. (2B)- 101
      • Eddie Rosario- NR

    • Sickels
      • Jedd Gyorko (2B/3B)- 38
      • Nick Franklin (SS)- 40
      • Delino DeShields Jr. (2B)- 77
      • Kolten Wong (2B)- 85
      • Jonathan Schoop (INF)- 102

    • Fangraphs
      • Delino DeShields Jr. (2B)- 52
      • Jonathan Schoop (INF)- 57
      • Kolten Wong (2B)- 58
      • Jedd Gyorko (2B/3B)- 67
      • Nick Franklin (SS)- 74
      • Eddie Rosario (2B)- 79


    Stats
    A

    1. Kolten Wong: Age 20 47 games .335/.401/.510 .911 OPS
    2. Johnathon Schoop: Age 19 51 games .316/.376/.514 .890 OPS
    3. Nick Franklin: Age 19 129 games .281/.351/.485 .837 OPS
    4. Eddie Rosario: Age 20 95 games .296/.345/.490 .835 OPS
    5. Jedd Gyorko: Age 21 42 games, .284/.366/.389 .755 OPS
    6. Delino DeShields Jr: Age 18,19 230 games .257/.352/.378 .731 OPS

    A+

    1. Gyorko: Age 22 81 games .365/.429/.638 1.068 OPS
    2. Rosario: Age 21 52 games .329/.377/.527 .903 OPS
    3. Franklin: Age 20 64 games .275/.356/.411 .767 OPS
    4. DeShields: Age 19,20 95 games .276/.375/.395 .769 OPS
    5. Schoop: Age 19 77 games .271/.329/.375 .704 OPS
    6. Wong: DNP

    AA

    1. Franklin: Age 20,21 78 games .323/.375/.497 .871 OPS
    2. Gyorko: Age 22,23 93 games .279/.357/.429 .786 OPS
    3. Rosario: Age 21 28 games .290/.356/.421 .776 OPS
    4. Wong: Age 21 126 games .287/.348/.405 .754 OPS
    5. Schoop: Age 20 124 games .245/.324/.386 .710 OPS

    AAA

    1. Gyorko: Age 23 92 games .328/.380/.588 .968 OPS
    2. Wong: Age 22 83 games .298/.360/.455 .815 OPS
    3. Franklin: Age 21,22 103 games .271/.358/.435 .793 OPS
    4. Schoop: Age 21 34 games .268/.331/.386 .717 OPS


    A Few Caveats

    • Kolten Wong: skipped A+, making his .754 OPS at AA quite impressive. Drafted by the Twins out of high school.
    • Delino Deshields: in his 2nd year of A ball, posted a .839 OPS in 111 games (would have placed him 3rd). Speed is a significant part of his value, stole 101 bases in 2012.


    Conclusion:
    Although Rosario has always been a year or two older per level than Schoop and DeShields, he has been a significantly better hitter. In this situation I would take Rosario’s vastly superior production over Schoop's and DeShields’s relative youth. This is especially true with Schoop, who despite being a 21 year old in AAA, failed to post an OPS over .710 in A+ or AA.

    Gyorko, Franklin, and Wong, on the other hand, have produced at a similar rate to Rosario. Here are their stats combined for A, A+, and AA:

    1. Gyorko: Ages 21-23 .315/.388/.505 .894 OPS
    2. Rosario: Ages 20-21 .305/.355/.490 .845 OPS
    3. Franklin: Ages 19-21 .291/.357/.470 .827 OPS
    4. Wong: Ages 20-21 .300/.362/.434 .796 OPS


    This shows Rosario in a very positive light. He has out-produced Franklin and Wong, while being the same age upon reaching AA, and although Gyorko has posted better numbers (driven by a higher walk-rate), he has done so while being much older than any of the other prospects.

    While this information does not prove that Rosario is the best 2B prospect in baseball—I have not considered important factors such as defense, speed, or what their ceiling looks like going forward—it does suggest that he has been just as productive in the batter’s box, if not more so, than any other 2B prospect.

    This article was originally published in blog: Comparing Rosario to Top 2B Prospects started by Boone
    Comments 7 Comments
    1. TheLeviathan's Avatar
      TheLeviathan -
      Awesome blog - really cool to compare especially with Franklin up and having some success in Seattle already.
    1. iastfan112's Avatar
      iastfan112 -
      One minor thing I'd like to see included in addition to level, what league they played in at that level. California League and Florida State league, for instance, are completely different animals when it comes to hitting.
    1. twinstalker's Avatar
      twinstalker -
      Thanks. There is no doubt the Rosario stands with the best of them bat-wise. Unfortunately, defense is a difference-maker, and we don't know where Rosario stands there, yet. The other guys have all shown they'll handle 2B in the majors (well, Gyorko might be a 3B, but his bat is that good). If Rosario can't play 2B, his value to the Twins declines immensely.
    1. nicksaviking's Avatar
      nicksaviking -
      Rosario has been very good at 2B this year, there is no reason to think he won't stay. I'd wager had Rosario cemented his status as a 2B when the prospect rankings came out, he would have been on each and every one of them.
    1. jorgenswest's Avatar
      jorgenswest -
      Rosario just moved to AA. Hopefully they will keep him in AAA most of next year. He needs to be solid with the glove. He is certain to struggle at the plate as he transitions to the majors. He doesn't need to compound that with struggle in the field.
    1. jimbo92107's Avatar
      jimbo92107 -
      Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
      Rosario just moved to AA. Hopefully they will keep him in AAA most of next year. He needs to be solid with the glove. He is certain to struggle at the plate as he transitions to the majors. He doesn't need to compound that with struggle in the field.
      Good points. Also, with Dozier hitting better and playing superlative 2B, why rush Rosario? Right now the Twins middle infield is about the last thing that needs to be fixed. Both Florimon and Dozier are hitting, and they're one of the best SS/2B combos in the league.
    1. MichiganTwins's Avatar
      MichiganTwins -
      The middle infield might be one of the few positives this season so far.
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