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  • Which Twins are most likely to be traded?

    There are Top 10 lists for everything: prospect lists, all-time greatest Philly cheese steaks. Today, I thought I’d work on a similar theme, but instead, I’m going to make it a Top 11 list. Below, I will post, in order, the Top 11 Minnesota Twins players that could be traded in the next 23 hours. Number 11 is the one I would say is least likely (as of right now), and the Number 1 player is the one I would assume is most likely to be traded.

    Of course, guessing what will happen is a lot of fun. Twins GM Terry Ryan and his staff will actually have to make real-life decisions on these players, considering what the team can get in return from various teams. So, put yourself in the GM’s seat. Who would be your Top 11 (or 10, or 6, or whatever) players that you think the Twins will trade? If you want, who are the Top 10 or 11 that you think the Twins should trade?

    I have included a “Percent-Likelihood” for each player. Although I have 11 players listed, the odds of most of them being traded is pretty small.

    Let’s start with a drum roll, please… (Disclaimer: These are the thoughts of Seth Stohs and not necessarily representative of the thoughts of other Twins Daily writers, the Twins themselves, or any other parties.)

    #11 – Kevin Correia – 1.9% –
    Yes, his April was terrific, as it has been in the past, but Correia has come back down to earth each month since then. When he signed with the Twins, I was comfortable with bringing him in, even though no one (myself included) understood the need for a second year. To Correia’s credit, he has been a workhorse. Even with his short start last weekend, he is on pace for over 190 innings. Innings may be very important to the Twins the next two months.

    #10 – Trevor Plouffe – 2.4% –
    He had a tremendous 4-6 week stretch for the Twins last season. He’s been more consistent this year. There is a certain Dominican third base prospect chomping at the bit for big league playing time as early as next year (Miguel Sano, not Deibinson Romero). I’d be surprised if there is a lot of interest in Plouffe, and the Twins would be silly to trade him right now. Who knows? He could be the team’s first baseman from June, 2014 forward.

    #9 – Casey Fien – 6.7% –
    The Twins signed Fien to a minor league deal before the 2012 season. Since he was promoted to the Twins halfway through last season, he has been one of baseball’s best relief pitchers. Should the Twins trade him while he’s pitching at his peak, or should they plan on him being an 8th (or 9th) inning guy for the next few years?

    #8 – Josh Roenicke – 8.4% –
    The Twins claimed Roenicke in the offseason when the Rockies did not tender him a contract. He has been solid, for the most part, with the Twins this year. Listen, he may not have a lot of value, but teams want reliever depth at this time of the year. The Twins have Michael Tonkin waiting in Rochester for an opportunity.

    #7 – Glen Perkins – 9.1% –
    Perkins is clearly the big fish. There are a lot of great reasons to trade him, the most important being that he is the one player they could demand a premium for. However, he is also under contract for a few more years at a very reasonable dollar value. He is from Minnesota. He has been quite dominant since moving to the bullpen. How quickly can the Twins contend? That is the question. Will anyone be willing to overwhelm the Twins' GM?

    #6 – Brian Duensing – 15.8% –
    When teams call and they can’t (or say they can’t) give up what the Twins want for Perkins, they may still be interested in this veteran Twins reliever. It’s been a frustrating season for Duensing, and for some reason his best trait, his ability to get left-handed hitters out, has disappeared. But, he’s got too much of a track record of success against lefties not to garner some interest.

    #5 – Drew Butera – 17.4% –
    This one may come as a surprise to many, but Drew Butera has value in the industry. Don’t get me wrong, he’s not going to fetch a top prospect. It likely would be a prospect few of us have even heard of. However, teams love having a great defensive catcher as their backup. Drew Butera is elite, and there may be a team out there willing to part with a little something to have him as their #2 or #3 catcher.

    #4 – Justin Morneau – 20.3% –
    Sentimentality may win with this one. Terry Ryan likely knows that he won’t get much for Morneau in the trade market. Morneau has had a terrific career with the Twins and has long been a fan favorite. So, the little bit that they may receive for two months of his service has to be weighed against what he can bring to the Twins for those two months. The casual fan will not be happy if the Twins trade Morneau for a couple non-prospects, but it may be the right thing to do.

    #3 – Jared Burton – 22.9% –
    With a hat tip to 1500 ESPN’s Brandon Warne, it should be pointed out that after a bad stretch, Burton has again become very good. As Warne tweeted earlier, in his “last 11 outings (9.1 IP) - .393 OPS allowed, 0 ER). That is much more reminiscent of what he did in 2012, and what he has done throughout his career… when healthy. He’s signed for one more season at a reasonable rate, which could entice some.

    #2 – Mike Pelfrey – 24.8% -
    Pelfrey is set to pitch for the Twins tonight when they open a series with the Kansas City Royals. The right-hander really struggled the first two months, but as Nick Nelson showed us last Friday, he has been terrific since the beginning of June. In seven starts, he has posted a 3.35 ERA and a 29/9 K/BB rate. He isn’t striking out many, but he’s gaining velocity, movement and command. The Twins signed him for just this season. He has the makings of a great mentor for the young pitchers coming up through the minors, but if the Twins can get something for him now, they should shop the Boras client who could be in line for a decent pay raise next year.

    #1 – Jamey Carroll – 52.1% –
    There’s little question in my mind that Jamey Carroll will (or at least should) get traded. He is the consummate professional and is a leader on any team. He has played in fewer than half the Twins games this year and because of that, his offensive numbers don’t look very good. But, he is what he is. He puts together solid plate appearances, works pitchers, and he plays terrific defense anywhere around the infield. There has to be a contender looking for some infield depth, and a guy who understands his role. His role on a contender would likely be similar to what it is with the Twins. It wouldn’t cost much for a team to acquire Carroll. In fact, maybe it would just be a Low A reliever, or cash, but it would be good to put Carroll on a team with a chance to win. I can see Cleveland being a realistic landing spot by the end of the day tomorrow.

    So, there you have it. My Top 11 most-likely-to-be-traded-in-the-next-23-hours Minnesota Twins ranking. It is, of course, subject to change tonight and throughout the day Wednesday as new rumors and opinions present themselves. I’d love to see your thoughts, and your rankings. As you can see, my percent-likelihood of most of these guys being traded is pretty small.
    This article was originally published in blog: Which Twins are most likely to be traded? started by Seth Stohs
    Comments 65 Comments
    1. drjim's Avatar
      drjim -
      I personally think they should replace Gardy after the season. But that is a little off topic.
    1. Shane Wahl's Avatar
      Shane Wahl -
      Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
      Is there proof somewhere that Drew Butera's damn defense is still "elite"? That word is bandied about left and right around here about his current defense. I do not buy it. NO team is going to trade anything for Drew Butera.
      Given that a PTBNL is something, I will put the smack down on myself here!
    1. jay's Avatar
      jay -
      Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
      i expect you will dog any former top talents that have struggled in their initial call ups. I personally find those types of moves wise gambles in these situations.
      Initial call up doesn't quite fit Arrieta, but I do agree with the strategy. Post-hype kids win me a fantasy baseball league just about every year.
    1. TheLeviathan's Avatar
      TheLeviathan -
      Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
      Initial call up doesn't quite fit Arrieta, but I do agree with the strategy. Post-hype kids win me a fantasy baseball league just about every year.
      Yeah I struggled for an apt description, but looks like you got the jist. I dothe same thing in fantasy ball - hawk for mid 20s guys with a new opportunity.

      Its borderline criminal how much room for opportunity the Twins have and the non-talents or aging no-values they are using it on.
    1. jay's Avatar
      jay -
      Paging Terry, Terry Ryan and Jamey, Jamey Carroll. Please make a phone call on line 1.

      From MLBTR: The Braves still want to add another infielder and a left-handed bat to their bench, and GM Frank Wren told Carroll Rogers of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that there's a good chance of an August trade for Atlanta to address those needs.
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