• Which Twins are most likely to be traded?

    There are Top 10 lists for everything: prospect lists, all-time greatest Philly cheese steaks. Today, I thought I’d work on a similar theme, but instead, I’m going to make it a Top 11 list. Below, I will post, in order, the Top 11 Minnesota Twins players that could be traded in the next 23 hours. Number 11 is the one I would say is least likely (as of right now), and the Number 1 player is the one I would assume is most likely to be traded.

    Of course, guessing what will happen is a lot of fun. Twins GM Terry Ryan and his staff will actually have to make real-life decisions on these players, considering what the team can get in return from various teams. So, put yourself in the GM’s seat. Who would be your Top 11 (or 10, or 6, or whatever) players that you think the Twins will trade? If you want, who are the Top 10 or 11 that you think the Twins should trade?

    I have included a “Percent-Likelihood” for each player. Although I have 11 players listed, the odds of most of them being traded is pretty small.



    Let’s start with a drum roll, please… (Disclaimer: These are the thoughts of Seth Stohs and not necessarily representative of the thoughts of other Twins Daily writers, the Twins themselves, or any other parties.)

    #11 – Kevin Correia – 1.9% –
    Yes, his April was terrific, as it has been in the past, but Correia has come back down to earth each month since then. When he signed with the Twins, I was comfortable with bringing him in, even though no one (myself included) understood the need for a second year. To Correia’s credit, he has been a workhorse. Even with his short start last weekend, he is on pace for over 190 innings. Innings may be very important to the Twins the next two months.

    #10 – Trevor Plouffe – 2.4% –
    He had a tremendous 4-6 week stretch for the Twins last season. He’s been more consistent this year. There is a certain Dominican third base prospect chomping at the bit for big league playing time as early as next year (Miguel Sano, not Deibinson Romero). I’d be surprised if there is a lot of interest in Plouffe, and the Twins would be silly to trade him right now. Who knows? He could be the team’s first baseman from June, 2014 forward.

    #9 – Casey Fien – 6.7% –
    The Twins signed Fien to a minor league deal before the 2012 season. Since he was promoted to the Twins halfway through last season, he has been one of baseball’s best relief pitchers. Should the Twins trade him while he’s pitching at his peak, or should they plan on him being an 8th (or 9th) inning guy for the next few years?

    #8 – Josh Roenicke – 8.4% –
    The Twins claimed Roenicke in the offseason when the Rockies did not tender him a contract. He has been solid, for the most part, with the Twins this year. Listen, he may not have a lot of value, but teams want reliever depth at this time of the year. The Twins have Michael Tonkin waiting in Rochester for an opportunity.

    #7 – Glen Perkins – 9.1% –
    Perkins is clearly the big fish. There are a lot of great reasons to trade him, the most important being that he is the one player they could demand a premium for. However, he is also under contract for a few more years at a very reasonable dollar value. He is from Minnesota. He has been quite dominant since moving to the bullpen. How quickly can the Twins contend? That is the question. Will anyone be willing to overwhelm the Twins' GM?

    #6 – Brian Duensing – 15.8% –
    When teams call and they can’t (or say they can’t) give up what the Twins want for Perkins, they may still be interested in this veteran Twins reliever. It’s been a frustrating season for Duensing, and for some reason his best trait, his ability to get left-handed hitters out, has disappeared. But, he’s got too much of a track record of success against lefties not to garner some interest.

    #5 – Drew Butera – 17.4% –
    This one may come as a surprise to many, but Drew Butera has value in the industry. Don’t get me wrong, he’s not going to fetch a top prospect. It likely would be a prospect few of us have even heard of. However, teams love having a great defensive catcher as their backup. Drew Butera is elite, and there may be a team out there willing to part with a little something to have him as their #2 or #3 catcher.

    #4 – Justin Morneau – 20.3% –
    Sentimentality may win with this one. Terry Ryan likely knows that he won’t get much for Morneau in the trade market. Morneau has had a terrific career with the Twins and has long been a fan favorite. So, the little bit that they may receive for two months of his service has to be weighed against what he can bring to the Twins for those two months. The casual fan will not be happy if the Twins trade Morneau for a couple non-prospects, but it may be the right thing to do.

    #3 – Jared Burton – 22.9% –
    With a hat tip to 1500 ESPN’s Brandon Warne, it should be pointed out that after a bad stretch, Burton has again become very good. As Warne tweeted earlier, in his “last 11 outings (9.1 IP) - .393 OPS allowed, 0 ER). That is much more reminiscent of what he did in 2012, and what he has done throughout his career… when healthy. He’s signed for one more season at a reasonable rate, which could entice some.

    #2 – Mike Pelfrey – 24.8% -
    Pelfrey is set to pitch for the Twins tonight when they open a series with the Kansas City Royals. The right-hander really struggled the first two months, but as Nick Nelson showed us last Friday, he has been terrific since the beginning of June. In seven starts, he has posted a 3.35 ERA and a 29/9 K/BB rate. He isn’t striking out many, but he’s gaining velocity, movement and command. The Twins signed him for just this season. He has the makings of a great mentor for the young pitchers coming up through the minors, but if the Twins can get something for him now, they should shop the Boras client who could be in line for a decent pay raise next year.

    #1 – Jamey Carroll – 52.1% –
    There’s little question in my mind that Jamey Carroll will (or at least should) get traded. He is the consummate professional and is a leader on any team. He has played in fewer than half the Twins games this year and because of that, his offensive numbers don’t look very good. But, he is what he is. He puts together solid plate appearances, works pitchers, and he plays terrific defense anywhere around the infield. There has to be a contender looking for some infield depth, and a guy who understands his role. His role on a contender would likely be similar to what it is with the Twins. It wouldn’t cost much for a team to acquire Carroll. In fact, maybe it would just be a Low A reliever, or cash, but it would be good to put Carroll on a team with a chance to win. I can see Cleveland being a realistic landing spot by the end of the day tomorrow.


    So, there you have it. My Top 11 most-likely-to-be-traded-in-the-next-23-hours Minnesota Twins ranking. It is, of course, subject to change tonight and throughout the day Wednesday as new rumors and opinions present themselves. I’d love to see your thoughts, and your rankings. As you can see, my percent-likelihood of most of these guys being traded is pretty small.
    This article was originally published in blog: Which Twins are most likely to be traded? started by Seth Stohs
    Comments 65 Comments
    1. nicksaviking's Avatar
      nicksaviking -
      Nice write up. Surprised Doumit isn't in the top 11 though, guys with some pop and some, cough, versatility usually interest multiple teams. I'm also surprised Carroll was atop the list. He seems like the kind of guy who gets moved in August, but his versatility likely will be appealing.

      For what it's worth, sources are telling Beradino that Morneau is 50-50 to be moved, though I think it's less. I don't think the Twins ship him off for a Liriano-esque package and I don't think they'll get offered much more. I think they have a little bit of awareness of what a straight salary dump for a still fan favorite would mean.
    1. TwinsFanInPhilly's Avatar
      TwinsFanInPhilly -
      Most likely to pass waivers and be traded in August - Willingham?
    1. Halsey Hall's Avatar
      Halsey Hall -
      I'd rate Duensing as the most likely to go. Never thought of Butera, but that's a very good choice. I can see Burton, then Plouffe, Parmalee being dealt too. It would probably be good for Carroll to be traded. He should be playing more, and plays the game the right way. Swarzak is around an even bet to move too.

      I wouldn't be trading Perkins, Fien, Pelfrey or Morneau.
    1. Kwak's Avatar
      Kwak -
      I think the "Morneau as fan favorite" negative response is way overblown. The games I have attended or those watched at a bar, no one even mentions Morneau. Those at the game are soaking-up the atmosphere, the actual game, the food/beverages, and those in their party. Mauer--is an entirely different story--but Morneau, just not seeing the "fan love".
    1. SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
      SpiritofVodkaDave -
      Quote Originally Posted by TwinsFanInPhilly View Post
      Most likely to pass waivers and be traded in August - Willingham?
      Willingham wouldn't pass waivers, he is still a big bat with a favorable contract.
    1. jorgenswest's Avatar
      jorgenswest -
      Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
      Willingham wouldn't pass waivers, he is still a big bat with a favorable contract.
      So let him leave.

      There is a reasonable chance he will spend a significant part of next year injured. His skills are declining. He is a significant liability LF. His value is power and walks. However, the walks need to be discounted because he doesn't run well.
    1. SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
      SpiritofVodkaDave -
      Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
      So let him leave.

      There is a reasonable chance he will spend a significant part of next year injured. His skills are declining. He is a significant liability LF. His value is power and walks. However, the walks need to be discounted because he doesn't run well.
      Give me a break. Why is there such a great risk of injury with him? His prior four years he averaged 132 games a year and in 3 of the 4 had more than 130 games.

      Yes his defense is bad, but you can DH him, and there is no reason why he cant still give you a .800-.840 OPS and 25 or so HR. If he is a DH you are probably looking at a guy who is a 2.7-3.3 WAR player next year, which makes him a relative steal at 7 mil.

      Plus you can always hold onto him, wait for the rebound and trade him when his value is a bit higher.

      This team needs bats heading into next year, instead of dumping one of our cheap internal ones and bringing in another FA we should certainly keep him around at this point (unless a good offer is made in the off-season)
    1. LaBombo's Avatar
      LaBombo -
      Good summary, and while it's difficult to find fault with Morneau being only a 1 in 5 chance of being moved, it would probably be a mistake not to take a Liriano-ish return for him, especially if the primary or even sole justification for hanging on to him is the fear of fan backlash after a trade.

      It's hard for me to think of a time when the Twins were less appealing to even casual fans than in the mid-to-late 90's, when fan favorites Paul Molitor and Terry Steinbach were still being trotted out as everyday players to distract fans from the appalling white-dwarf collapse of what had been regarded in 1995 as the shiny, happy nucleus of the next wave of competitiveness.

      And I think you could argue that both Molitor and Steinbach contributed more on field than Morneau is at this point, and even that they were selling more tickets as a percent of the overall box office.

      Some casual fans and some season ticket holders of the 'wins and RBIs' variety may grumble, and a few may even walk. But the cat is already out of the bag for most fans; they know the Twins stink even with Morneauzie in the lineup every day, and that he is unfortunately nowhere near the player he used to be.

      Send him to Texas, and play up the 'Justin will get another chance to play for a contender' and 'reunited with Joe Nathan' angles. Justin was one of the three most popular and productive players of the competitive run in the past decade. But it's over. Move on. The draw of the park and the emerging kids' storyline far exceed Morneau's at this point.
    1. LaBombo's Avatar
      LaBombo -
      Quote Originally Posted by TwinsFanInPhilly View Post
      Most likely to pass waivers and be traded in August - Willingham?
      They'll dangle him, but they'll just end up pulling him back before they even make it very far into the nuisance claim stage.
    1. jorgenswest's Avatar
      jorgenswest -
      Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
      Give me a break. Why is there such a great risk of injury with him? His prior four years he averaged 132 games a year and in 3 of the 4 had more than 130 games.

      Yes his defense is bad, but you can DH him, and there is no reason why he cant still give you a .800-.840 OPS and 25 or so HR. If he is a DH you are probably looking at a guy who is a 2.7-3.3 WAR player next year, which makes him a relative steal at 7 mil.

      Plus you can always hold onto him, wait for the rebound and trade him when his value is a bit higher.

      This team needs bats heading into next year, instead of dumping one of our cheap internal ones and bringing in another FA we should certainly keep him around at this point (unless a good offer is made in the off-season)
      OK. He can DH as long as they find someone to take Doumit. Neither should be in anything more than a Jim Thome role. The pitchers deserve and need better.

      As a DH, Thome earned 1.5 and 3 million with the Twins.
    1. E. Andrew's Avatar
      E. Andrew -
      Great write-up.
    1. Danchat's Avatar
      Danchat -
      I liked the article. I would add in Ryan Doumit at 10% and Sam Deduno at 7.5%.
      And Nick Blackburn at .00001%.
    1. SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
      SpiritofVodkaDave -
      Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
      OK. He can DH as long as they find someone to take Doumit. Neither should be in anything more than a Jim Thome role. The pitchers deserve and need better.

      As a DH, Thome earned 1.5 and 3 million with the Twins.
      First off, Thome was a freaking steal that first year and in even part time work (100 games) he still posted a 3 WAR.

      Not sure what Thome has to do with anything in this convo, Willingham can DH and play a little LF when it makes sense. Doumit can play some back up catcher and some 1st base. Hell Willingham maybe will have to play some first base next year at this point as well.
    1. jimbo92107's Avatar
      jimbo92107 -
      It would be nuts to trade Pelfrey right now. First, the Twins wouldn't get much for him, because the buyer can still point at his season ERA and his TJ surgery. Second, Pelfrey when healthy would be an excellent mid-rotation starter and innings eater. Third, Pelfrey does so many things mechanically right and is such a solid pro that his leadership role could be huge for Gibson and other young pitchers.
    1. Thrylos's Avatar
      Thrylos -
      Good stuff, other that Butera's alleged "elite" defense. He played enough in the bigs for all us to see throws at 2B going to CF and passed balls, to bust that suburban legend...

      Agreed about Carroll, but his .216/.270/.247 line does not make him very desirable to a contender.
    1. jorgenswest's Avatar
      jorgenswest -
      Butera's pop to pop time throwing out runners is very good. His numbers in pitch framing have been average at best. In his weekly show, Gardenhire praised his ability to go out to the mound and get Diamond back on track. Does he see something mechanical to adjust or is he just getting him refocused? Not sure. It is a skill that would be difficult to measure.

      If a catcher has influence on anything that could be measured it would be the defense independent stats like strike outs and walks. In 2012, Twin pitchers had a better K/BB ratio with Butera (2.53). Doumit was 1.67. In that sense, Doumit makes him look elite.
    1. Thrylos's Avatar
      Thrylos -
      Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
      If a cacher has influence on anything that could be measured it would be the defense independent stats like strike outs and walks. In 2012, Twin pitchers had a better K/BB ratio with Butera (2.53). Doumit was 1.67. In that sense, Doumit makes him look elite.
      "Elite" is in comparison to the rest of the league and he has to be on top 2 or 3 to be "elite". Being better than Doumit, does not "elite" make...
    1. nicksaviking's Avatar
      nicksaviking -
      Quote Originally Posted by LaBombo View Post
      Good summary, and while it's difficult to find fault with Morneau being only a 1 in 5 chance of being moved, it would probably be a mistake not to take a Liriano-ish return for him, especially if the primary or even sole justification for hanging on to him is the fear of fan backlash after a trade.
      I have no interest in a Liriano-ish return for Morneau. The Twins don't have room for more career AAAA players on the 40-man. I'd rather let him play out the year even if there was only a 1% chance of Morneau turning it around enough to earn a qualifying offer.
    1. YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
      YourHouseIsMyHouse -
      Quote Originally Posted by jimbo92107 View Post
      It would be nuts to trade Pelfrey right now. First, the Twins wouldn't get much for him, because the buyer can still point at his season ERA and his TJ surgery. Second, Pelfrey when healthy would be an excellent mid-rotation starter and innings eater. Third, Pelfrey does so many things mechanically right and is such a solid pro that his leadership role could be huge for Gibson and other young pitchers.
      I think the reason is because his deal (realistically) expires at the end of this season. Perhaps there is more leverage in a re-signing than a signing, but I'm not sure Pelfrey has been enjoying his stay here. Although, I agree with you on that he would be good for this team.
    1. Kwak's Avatar
      Kwak -
      Probability of trading Pelfrey revised to 0.1%
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