• Which Twins are most likely to be traded?

    There are Top 10 lists for everything: prospect lists, all-time greatest Philly cheese steaks. Today, I thought I’d work on a similar theme, but instead, I’m going to make it a Top 11 list. Below, I will post, in order, the Top 11 Minnesota Twins players that could be traded in the next 23 hours. Number 11 is the one I would say is least likely (as of right now), and the Number 1 player is the one I would assume is most likely to be traded.

    Of course, guessing what will happen is a lot of fun. Twins GM Terry Ryan and his staff will actually have to make real-life decisions on these players, considering what the team can get in return from various teams. So, put yourself in the GM’s seat. Who would be your Top 11 (or 10, or 6, or whatever) players that you think the Twins will trade? If you want, who are the Top 10 or 11 that you think the Twins should trade?

    I have included a “Percent-Likelihood” for each player. Although I have 11 players listed, the odds of most of them being traded is pretty small.



    Let’s start with a drum roll, please… (Disclaimer: These are the thoughts of Seth Stohs and not necessarily representative of the thoughts of other Twins Daily writers, the Twins themselves, or any other parties.)

    #11 – Kevin Correia – 1.9% –
    Yes, his April was terrific, as it has been in the past, but Correia has come back down to earth each month since then. When he signed with the Twins, I was comfortable with bringing him in, even though no one (myself included) understood the need for a second year. To Correia’s credit, he has been a workhorse. Even with his short start last weekend, he is on pace for over 190 innings. Innings may be very important to the Twins the next two months.

    #10 – Trevor Plouffe – 2.4% –
    He had a tremendous 4-6 week stretch for the Twins last season. He’s been more consistent this year. There is a certain Dominican third base prospect chomping at the bit for big league playing time as early as next year (Miguel Sano, not Deibinson Romero). I’d be surprised if there is a lot of interest in Plouffe, and the Twins would be silly to trade him right now. Who knows? He could be the team’s first baseman from June, 2014 forward.

    #9 – Casey Fien – 6.7% –
    The Twins signed Fien to a minor league deal before the 2012 season. Since he was promoted to the Twins halfway through last season, he has been one of baseball’s best relief pitchers. Should the Twins trade him while he’s pitching at his peak, or should they plan on him being an 8th (or 9th) inning guy for the next few years?

    #8 – Josh Roenicke – 8.4% –
    The Twins claimed Roenicke in the offseason when the Rockies did not tender him a contract. He has been solid, for the most part, with the Twins this year. Listen, he may not have a lot of value, but teams want reliever depth at this time of the year. The Twins have Michael Tonkin waiting in Rochester for an opportunity.

    #7 – Glen Perkins – 9.1% –
    Perkins is clearly the big fish. There are a lot of great reasons to trade him, the most important being that he is the one player they could demand a premium for. However, he is also under contract for a few more years at a very reasonable dollar value. He is from Minnesota. He has been quite dominant since moving to the bullpen. How quickly can the Twins contend? That is the question. Will anyone be willing to overwhelm the Twins' GM?

    #6 – Brian Duensing – 15.8% –
    When teams call and they can’t (or say they can’t) give up what the Twins want for Perkins, they may still be interested in this veteran Twins reliever. It’s been a frustrating season for Duensing, and for some reason his best trait, his ability to get left-handed hitters out, has disappeared. But, he’s got too much of a track record of success against lefties not to garner some interest.

    #5 – Drew Butera – 17.4% –
    This one may come as a surprise to many, but Drew Butera has value in the industry. Don’t get me wrong, he’s not going to fetch a top prospect. It likely would be a prospect few of us have even heard of. However, teams love having a great defensive catcher as their backup. Drew Butera is elite, and there may be a team out there willing to part with a little something to have him as their #2 or #3 catcher.

    #4 – Justin Morneau – 20.3% –
    Sentimentality may win with this one. Terry Ryan likely knows that he won’t get much for Morneau in the trade market. Morneau has had a terrific career with the Twins and has long been a fan favorite. So, the little bit that they may receive for two months of his service has to be weighed against what he can bring to the Twins for those two months. The casual fan will not be happy if the Twins trade Morneau for a couple non-prospects, but it may be the right thing to do.

    #3 – Jared Burton – 22.9% –
    With a hat tip to 1500 ESPN’s Brandon Warne, it should be pointed out that after a bad stretch, Burton has again become very good. As Warne tweeted earlier, in his “last 11 outings (9.1 IP) - .393 OPS allowed, 0 ER). That is much more reminiscent of what he did in 2012, and what he has done throughout his career… when healthy. He’s signed for one more season at a reasonable rate, which could entice some.

    #2 – Mike Pelfrey – 24.8% -
    Pelfrey is set to pitch for the Twins tonight when they open a series with the Kansas City Royals. The right-hander really struggled the first two months, but as Nick Nelson showed us last Friday, he has been terrific since the beginning of June. In seven starts, he has posted a 3.35 ERA and a 29/9 K/BB rate. He isn’t striking out many, but he’s gaining velocity, movement and command. The Twins signed him for just this season. He has the makings of a great mentor for the young pitchers coming up through the minors, but if the Twins can get something for him now, they should shop the Boras client who could be in line for a decent pay raise next year.

    #1 – Jamey Carroll – 52.1% –
    There’s little question in my mind that Jamey Carroll will (or at least should) get traded. He is the consummate professional and is a leader on any team. He has played in fewer than half the Twins games this year and because of that, his offensive numbers don’t look very good. But, he is what he is. He puts together solid plate appearances, works pitchers, and he plays terrific defense anywhere around the infield. There has to be a contender looking for some infield depth, and a guy who understands his role. His role on a contender would likely be similar to what it is with the Twins. It wouldn’t cost much for a team to acquire Carroll. In fact, maybe it would just be a Low A reliever, or cash, but it would be good to put Carroll on a team with a chance to win. I can see Cleveland being a realistic landing spot by the end of the day tomorrow.


    So, there you have it. My Top 11 most-likely-to-be-traded-in-the-next-23-hours Minnesota Twins ranking. It is, of course, subject to change tonight and throughout the day Wednesday as new rumors and opinions present themselves. I’d love to see your thoughts, and your rankings. As you can see, my percent-likelihood of most of these guys being traded is pretty small.
    This article was originally published in blog: Which Twins are most likely to be traded? started by Seth Stohs
    Comments 65 Comments
    1. TheLeviathan's Avatar
      TheLeviathan -
      Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
      The Cubs and the White Sox had top of the rotation starters to trade. Now they don't
      I'll keep saying it, Jake Arrieta may end up being significantly better tahn anything we land. And getting him didn't require any top prospects or a top of the rotation guy.

      The problem is, even our mid-tier talent is value-less for a variety of reasons. The hard part is being in a rebuild, playing a lot of 30 year olds, and none of them possessing any trade value. Even the awful mid-90s teams managed that much.
    1. nicksaviking's Avatar
      nicksaviking -
      Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
      The Cubs and the White Sox had top of the rotation starters to trade. Now they don't
      Yeah, those are nice to have at the trade deadline, but I'd also take a Feldman, Schierholtz, DeJusus, Gregg, Crain, Rios or Rameriz at this point too. Not all are getting moved, but all seem to have some value. The Twins only have Perkins, who's value likely tops them all, but he doesn't look to be on the table.

      As Jim said, the bullpen is the Twins saving grace this year, alas, generally only closers or elite set-up men bring a return of any excitement.
    1. wagwan's Avatar
      wagwan -
      Let's face it. Morneau has been gone since 2010
    1. Dman's Avatar
      Dman -
      Add me to the list of people who like what the Cubs have done this year. They bought guys in FA and got rid of them for prospects. They hit International FA really hard this year taking a lot of top players. They played fairly well early in the year to keep their fans interested and can now safely tank for high draft picks in a deep draft. It just doesn't get any better than that if you are in rebuilding mode.

      The Twins so far no FA's traded. 1 top 10 international FA. played well and awful for various stretches and with an easy schedule on the horizon will likely start winning enough games to keep them out of the top 10 for draft picks. It just doesn't get much worse than that.
    1. Danchat's Avatar
      Danchat -
      and with an easy schedule on the horizon will likely start winning enough games to keep them out of the top 10 for draft picks.
      I agree with everything except this part... methinks we go on another downward spiral. Look at the lineup and the batting averages. I would rather bomb for a higher pick.

      But we should really trade someone. If there's a player we know isn't going to re-sign, send them out for a bag of balls! The Liriano trade was a good example, and I actually still like the trade. We need to trade... because there's nothing else better to do.
    1. old nurse's Avatar
      old nurse -
      Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
      I'll keep saying it, Jake Arrieta may end up being significantly better tahn anything we land. And getting him didn't require any top prospects or a top of the rotation guy.

      The problem is, even our mid-tier talent is value-less for a variety of reasons. The hard part is being in a rebuild, playing a lot of 30 year olds, and none of them possessing any trade value. Even the awful mid-90s teams managed that much.
      He may be better than anything the Twins land. He also is no better than most of what the Twins have. Shuffling back of the rotation guys does not get you significantly any better.
    1. old nurse's Avatar
      old nurse -
      Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
      Yeah, those are nice to have at the trade deadline, but I'd also take a Feldman, Schierholtz, DeJusus, Gregg, Crain, Rios or Rameriz at this point too. Not all are getting moved, but all seem to have some value. The Twins only have Perkins, who's value likely tops them all, but he doesn't look to be on the table.

      As Jim said, the bullpen is the Twins saving grace this year, alas, generally only closers or elite set-up men bring a return of any excitement.
      For the short term I would rather be wrong and have the upside of Arcia and Hicks than Shierholtz and DeJusus and what, if anything significant, their trade value is.
    1. TheLeviathan's Avatar
      TheLeviathan -
      Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
      He may be better than anything the Twins land. He also is no better than most of what the Twins have. Shuffling back of the rotation guys does not get you significantly any better.
      That would be true if you were willing to fairly evaluate him and his value and that was your conclusion. You appear to be in the vast minority of baseball writers and analysts, so it's not true. I hope we land someone like him for anyone we have available and I will be consistent praising that sort of move if we make it.

      i expect you will dog any former top talents that have struggled in their initial call ups. I personally find those types of moves wise gambles in these situations.
    1. Winston Smith's Avatar
      Winston Smith -
      I love this one we have the 4th worst record in baseball but somehow that means Gardy is doing a great job because we aren't in the worst 3?
    1. old nurse's Avatar
      old nurse -
      Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
      That would be true if you were willing to fairly evaluate him and his value and that was your conclusion. You appear to be in the vast minority of baseball writers and analysts, so it's not true. I hope we land someone like him for anyone we have available and I will be consistent praising that sort of move if we make it.

      i expect you will dog any former top talents that have struggled in their initial call ups. I personally find those types of moves wise gambles in these situations.
      Arietta's initial call up was in 2010 and 69 major league games ago. The baseball GM and talent evaluators in Baltimore thought so much of him they dealt him for a middle of the rotation rental player. It took another player to make the deal. A contending team dealt him in an effort to get someone better than him even for the short term. What more needs to be said of evaluating his talents.
    1. Winston Smith's Avatar
      Winston Smith -
      Live from the Twins front office:
    1. nicksaviking's Avatar
      nicksaviking -
      Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
      For the short term I would rather be wrong and have the upside of Arcia and Hicks than Shierholtz and DeJusus and what, if anything significant, their trade value is.
      I'd rather the youngsters play also, but the Twins also have vets taking away playing time. Unfortunately Willingham, Doumit, Morneau, Correia, Pelfrey and Carroll likely have next to no value at the moment.
    1. TheLeviathan's Avatar
      TheLeviathan -
      Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
      Arietta's initial call up was in 2010 and 69 major league games ago. The baseball GM and talent evaluators in Baltimore thought so much of him they dealt him for a middle of the rotation rental player. It took another player to make the deal. A contending team dealt him in an effort to get someone better than him even for the short term. What more needs to be said of evaluating his talents.
      Good thing no one on the Orioles consulted you on Chris Davis. Or the Twins with Glen Perkins. Or any of dozens of other examples out there.

      Sometimes guys in their mid 20s find a way later if you give their talent a change of scenery and opportunity. He may never pull it all together but baseball is full of examples to the contrary and the Twins have plenty of room to offer opportunity.
    1. nicksaviking's Avatar
      nicksaviking -
      Quote Originally Posted by Winston Smith View Post
      Terry is still hard at work! Don't give up yet.

      Can we get an extension on that deadline? We had some technical difficulties.

    1. nicksaviking's Avatar
      nicksaviking -
      Quote Originally Posted by Winston Smith View Post
      I love this one we have the 4th worst record in baseball but somehow that means Gardy is doing a great job because we aren't in the worst 3?
      No, just better than Ventura and Sveum.
    1. nicksaviking's Avatar
      nicksaviking -
      Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
      Can we get an extension on that deadline? We had some technical difficulties.

      Extension granted!
    1. jay's Avatar
      jay -
      Well played, Seth.

      "#5 – Drew Butera – 17.4% – This one may come as a surprise to many, but Drew Butera has value in the industry. Don’t get me wrong, he’s not going to fetch a top prospect. It likely would be a prospect few of us have even heard of. However, teams love having a great defensive catcher as their backup. Drew Butera is elite, and there may be a team out there willing to part with a little something to have him as their #2 or #3 catcher."

      I wouldn't be surprised in the least if that #1 guy on the list (Carroll) goes in August.
    1. drjim's Avatar
      drjim -
      Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
      That would be true if you were willing to fairly evaluate him and his value and that was your conclusion. You appear to be in the vast minority of baseball writers and analysts, so it's not true. I hope we land someone like him for anyone we have available and I will be consistent praising that sort of move if we make it.

      i expect you will dog any former top talents that have struggled in their initial call ups. I personally find those types of moves wise gambles in these situations.
      He would be in the minority if it was 2010. Alas it no longer is.
    1. drjim's Avatar
      drjim -
      Quote Originally Posted by Winston Smith View Post
      I love this one we have the 4th worst record in baseball but somehow that means Gardy is doing a great job because we aren't in the worst 3?
      I know you aren't one to hold back hyperbole in your negativity, but I don't think anyone said Gardy was doing a "great" job. He's probably doing more or less what any manager would do with this collection of talent.
    1. Mr. Brooks's Avatar
      Mr. Brooks -
      Quote Originally Posted by drjim View Post
      I know you aren't one to hold back hyperbole in your negativity, but I don't think anyone said Gardy was doing a "great" job. He's probably doing more or less what any manager would do with this collection of talent.
      I agree. I don't think his managing has caused this collection of talent to lose more games than its talent level suggests it should.
      But, I also don't think he's caused it to win any more games than it should either.
      To me that sounds like the description of, average, mediocre, replacement level, whatever term you want to use for it.
      Is that really what we should be striving for?
      Just as we would with any position player, or pitcher, shouldn't our goal be to have the best manager we can find, not just one who is "good enough"?
      If he still had a year(s) left under contract, I would say you don't fire him necessarily, because it's not his fault he has no talent. But since his contract is up after this year anyway, I don't see him as being good enough to justify giving him an extension. Is being just as good as they should be a good reason to do so?
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