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  • Which Twins are most likely to be traded?

    There are Top 10 lists for everything: prospect lists, all-time greatest Philly cheese steaks. Today, I thought I’d work on a similar theme, but instead, I’m going to make it a Top 11 list. Below, I will post, in order, the Top 11 Minnesota Twins players that could be traded in the next 23 hours. Number 11 is the one I would say is least likely (as of right now), and the Number 1 player is the one I would assume is most likely to be traded.

    Of course, guessing what will happen is a lot of fun. Twins GM Terry Ryan and his staff will actually have to make real-life decisions on these players, considering what the team can get in return from various teams. So, put yourself in the GM’s seat. Who would be your Top 11 (or 10, or 6, or whatever) players that you think the Twins will trade? If you want, who are the Top 10 or 11 that you think the Twins should trade?

    I have included a “Percent-Likelihood” for each player. Although I have 11 players listed, the odds of most of them being traded is pretty small.



    Let’s start with a drum roll, please… (Disclaimer: These are the thoughts of Seth Stohs and not necessarily representative of the thoughts of other Twins Daily writers, the Twins themselves, or any other parties.)

    #11 – Kevin Correia – 1.9% –
    Yes, his April was terrific, as it has been in the past, but Correia has come back down to earth each month since then. When he signed with the Twins, I was comfortable with bringing him in, even though no one (myself included) understood the need for a second year. To Correia’s credit, he has been a workhorse. Even with his short start last weekend, he is on pace for over 190 innings. Innings may be very important to the Twins the next two months.

    #10 – Trevor Plouffe – 2.4% –
    He had a tremendous 4-6 week stretch for the Twins last season. He’s been more consistent this year. There is a certain Dominican third base prospect chomping at the bit for big league playing time as early as next year (Miguel Sano, not Deibinson Romero). I’d be surprised if there is a lot of interest in Plouffe, and the Twins would be silly to trade him right now. Who knows? He could be the team’s first baseman from June, 2014 forward.

    #9 – Casey Fien – 6.7% –
    The Twins signed Fien to a minor league deal before the 2012 season. Since he was promoted to the Twins halfway through last season, he has been one of baseball’s best relief pitchers. Should the Twins trade him while he’s pitching at his peak, or should they plan on him being an 8th (or 9th) inning guy for the next few years?

    #8 – Josh Roenicke – 8.4% –
    The Twins claimed Roenicke in the offseason when the Rockies did not tender him a contract. He has been solid, for the most part, with the Twins this year. Listen, he may not have a lot of value, but teams want reliever depth at this time of the year. The Twins have Michael Tonkin waiting in Rochester for an opportunity.

    #7 – Glen Perkins – 9.1% –
    Perkins is clearly the big fish. There are a lot of great reasons to trade him, the most important being that he is the one player they could demand a premium for. However, he is also under contract for a few more years at a very reasonable dollar value. He is from Minnesota. He has been quite dominant since moving to the bullpen. How quickly can the Twins contend? That is the question. Will anyone be willing to overwhelm the Twins' GM?

    #6 – Brian Duensing – 15.8% –
    When teams call and they can’t (or say they can’t) give up what the Twins want for Perkins, they may still be interested in this veteran Twins reliever. It’s been a frustrating season for Duensing, and for some reason his best trait, his ability to get left-handed hitters out, has disappeared. But, he’s got too much of a track record of success against lefties not to garner some interest.

    #5 – Drew Butera – 17.4% –
    This one may come as a surprise to many, but Drew Butera has value in the industry. Don’t get me wrong, he’s not going to fetch a top prospect. It likely would be a prospect few of us have even heard of. However, teams love having a great defensive catcher as their backup. Drew Butera is elite, and there may be a team out there willing to part with a little something to have him as their #2 or #3 catcher.

    #4 – Justin Morneau – 20.3% –
    Sentimentality may win with this one. Terry Ryan likely knows that he won’t get much for Morneau in the trade market. Morneau has had a terrific career with the Twins and has long been a fan favorite. So, the little bit that they may receive for two months of his service has to be weighed against what he can bring to the Twins for those two months. The casual fan will not be happy if the Twins trade Morneau for a couple non-prospects, but it may be the right thing to do.

    #3 – Jared Burton – 22.9% –
    With a hat tip to 1500 ESPN’s Brandon Warne, it should be pointed out that after a bad stretch, Burton has again become very good. As Warne tweeted earlier, in his “last 11 outings (9.1 IP) - .393 OPS allowed, 0 ER). That is much more reminiscent of what he did in 2012, and what he has done throughout his career… when healthy. He’s signed for one more season at a reasonable rate, which could entice some.

    #2 – Mike Pelfrey – 24.8% -
    Pelfrey is set to pitch for the Twins tonight when they open a series with the Kansas City Royals. The right-hander really struggled the first two months, but as Nick Nelson showed us last Friday, he has been terrific since the beginning of June. In seven starts, he has posted a 3.35 ERA and a 29/9 K/BB rate. He isn’t striking out many, but he’s gaining velocity, movement and command. The Twins signed him for just this season. He has the makings of a great mentor for the young pitchers coming up through the minors, but if the Twins can get something for him now, they should shop the Boras client who could be in line for a decent pay raise next year.

    #1 – Jamey Carroll – 52.1% –
    There’s little question in my mind that Jamey Carroll will (or at least should) get traded. He is the consummate professional and is a leader on any team. He has played in fewer than half the Twins games this year and because of that, his offensive numbers don’t look very good. But, he is what he is. He puts together solid plate appearances, works pitchers, and he plays terrific defense anywhere around the infield. There has to be a contender looking for some infield depth, and a guy who understands his role. His role on a contender would likely be similar to what it is with the Twins. It wouldn’t cost much for a team to acquire Carroll. In fact, maybe it would just be a Low A reliever, or cash, but it would be good to put Carroll on a team with a chance to win. I can see Cleveland being a realistic landing spot by the end of the day tomorrow.


    So, there you have it. My Top 11 most-likely-to-be-traded-in-the-next-23-hours Minnesota Twins ranking. It is, of course, subject to change tonight and throughout the day Wednesday as new rumors and opinions present themselves. I’d love to see your thoughts, and your rankings. As you can see, my percent-likelihood of most of these guys being traded is pretty small.
    This article was originally published in blog: Which Twins are most likely to be traded? started by Seth Stohs
    Comments 65 Comments
    1. shs_59's Avatar
      shs_59 -
      Morneau and Duensing to Yankeees

      For Michael Pineda and Rafael De Paula (or is it Jorgel de paula?)

      option #2

      Justin Morneau and Jared Burton to Pirates

      for Allen Hanson

      or even Better Dillson Herrera and Nick Kingham
    1. TheLeviathan's Avatar
      TheLeviathan -
      Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
      Not sure what Thome has to do with anything in this convo, Willingham can DH and play a little LF when it makes sense. Doumit can play some back up catcher and some 1st base. Hell Willingham maybe will have to play some first base next year at this point as well.
      Since when does Doumit play first?

      Reviewing the options in this thread makes me, as a Twins fan, a very sad panda.
    1. drjim's Avatar
      drjim -
      Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
      I have no interest in a Liriano-ish return for Morneau. The Twins don't have room for more career AAAA players on the 40-man. I'd rather let him play out the year even if there was only a 1% chance of Morneau turning it around enough to earn a qualifying offer.
      The other option is to pass him through waivers in early August (assuming no one claims the contract) and hope he rebounds enough to get a little more value sometime later in the month.
    1. Otwins's Avatar
      Otwins -
      After looking at the list what is the odds of "No Deal"
    1. OldManWinter's Avatar
      OldManWinter -
      Itchy Trigger Fingers Here. What Does A Career AAAA HR Hitter Bring?
    1. beckmt's Avatar
      beckmt -
      Do not see the Twins making a trade. Maybe if something happened tonight, but unlikely. Carroll would be a good trade at this time, he is just taking AB's away from players we need to find out about. May have to bundle players to get a return, TR should try.
    1. old nurse's Avatar
      old nurse -
      A few thousand posts about trading players leads me to believe personal likes and dislikes cloud a lot of judgement here.
    1. drjim's Avatar
      drjim -
      Quote Originally Posted by twinswon1991 View Post
      Is there a worse GM in the league that Good Ole Boy Terry Ryan? Absolutely NOT!!!

      His inaction is embarrassing.
      His lack of statistical understanding is sad.
      His pitching philosophy is from the 1980's.
      He is the worst GM by far at aquiring FA talent.
      His only mode of scouting is to determine if the guy is "Nice" and/or if he will "shut up and toe the company line".

      It makes me sick seeing the Head Cheerleader Stohs and the rest of the Polad Pocket Protectors pretend that this man deserves to be employed.

      Terrry has made our once somewhat respectable organization and absolute laughingstock!
      Analysis
    1. NC-Twins's Avatar
      NC-Twins -
      Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
      So let him leave.

      There is a reasonable chance he will spend a significant part of next year injured. His skills are declining. He is a significant liability LF. His value is power and walks. However, the walks need to be discounted because he doesn't run well.
      He is the closest thing we have to a DH.
    1. NC-Twins's Avatar
      NC-Twins -
      Quote Originally Posted by drjim View Post
      The other option is to pass him through waivers in early August (assuming no one claims the contract) and hope he rebounds enough to get a little more value sometime later in the month.
      Infinitely small chance of Mornie making it through waivers without a claim.
    1. Major Leauge Ready's Avatar
      Major Leauge Ready -
      Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
      A few thousand posts about trading players leads me to believe personal likes and dislikes cloud a lot of judgement here.
      I am with you here. There is a lot of complaining about building a contender and then an unwillingness to let players go who might actually bring something in return. Perk is my favorite player on this team but I am sitting here hoping someone offers us a return TR can't refuse.

      It would be nice to just let Morneau play out his contract and have a nice send-off. On the other hand, we need a 1B next year and it would be nice to give Colabello a 50 game audition. Maybe even give Romero a look at 3rd and experiment with Plouffe at 1st. Romero's numbers in the past 10 games are 351/442/595 in his last 10 games.
    1. Shane Wahl's Avatar
      Shane Wahl -
      Is there proof somewhere that Drew Butera's damn defense is still "elite"? That word is bandied about left and right around here about his current defense. I do not buy it. NO team is going to trade anything for Drew Butera.
    1. Winston Smith's Avatar
      Winston Smith -
      Terry is still hard at work! Don't give up yet.

    1. jorgenswest's Avatar
      jorgenswest -
      Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
      Is there proof somewhere that Drew Butera's damn defense is still "elite"? That word is bandied about left and right around here about his current defense. I do not buy it. NO team is going to trade anything for Drew Butera.
      The Yankees and Rays play poor hitting catchers who are very good at framing pitches.
      Butera is at best average at framing pitches. He has very good pop to pop times on his throws. Those teams that value defense at catcher would start him over Doumit, but that doesn't make him elite. He is just way better than Doumit behind the plate. Neither guy would play catcher for a good team.
    1. nicksaviking's Avatar
      nicksaviking -
      Quote Originally Posted by NC-Twins View Post
      Infinitely small chance of Mornie making it through waivers without a claim.
      I'd say less than 50% but I don't know that it's out of the realm of possibility. At this time of year $4.5 million seems like a lot of money to teams, we've seen smaller contracts sneak through attached to guys just as (un?)productive as Morneau. Plus a non-contender likely isn't going to claim him, he's a rental. There's a good chance the team that claims him will actually want him and make an offer.
    1. nicksaviking's Avatar
      nicksaviking -
      Watching teams like the Cubs and White Sox swing deals makes me jealous that those teams actually have valuable and expendable pieces to move. Hard to believe the Twins have a better record but have nearly no useful trade chips. I'm not a staunch Gardenhire supporter, but logic says that if the Twins are still playing better than the Chicago teams, who have more valuable players, he's at least squeezing more out of the bums on his squad.
    1. Willihammer's Avatar
      Willihammer -
      I wonder if the Red Sox would entertain a Doumit for Ross swap, straight up? Contracts are about identical. Doumit is younger, might have the better bat. Ross is the better receiver.
    1. drjim's Avatar
      drjim -
      Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
      Watching teams like the Cubs and White Sox swing deals makes me jealous that those teams actually have valuable and expendable pieces to move. Hard to believe the Twins have a better record but have nearly no useful trade chips. I'm not a staunch Gardenhire supporter, but logic says that if the Twins are still playing better than the Chicago teams, who have more valuable players, he's at least squeezing more out of the bums on his squad.
      I was thinking this too. I think a main reason is what they have squeezed out of this bullpen. Despite many criticisms of hid bullpen management I also found it to be a strength. Improved defense is a big factor too.
    1. old nurse's Avatar
      old nurse -
      Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
      Watching teams like the Cubs and White Sox swing deals makes me jealous that those teams actually have valuable and expendable pieces to move. Hard to believe the Twins have a better record but have nearly no useful trade chips. I'm not a staunch Gardenhire supporter, but logic says that if the Twins are still playing better than the Chicago teams, who have more valuable players, he's at least squeezing more out of the bums on his squad.
      The Cubs and the White Sox had top of the rotation starters to trade. Now they don't
    1. SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
      SpiritofVodkaDave -
      Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
      The Cubs and the White Sox had top of the rotation starters to trade. Now they don't
      The Cubs and White Sox also had those top of rotation starters to trade because they gave up many top prospects to acquire them in the first place! Frankly, I would rather have our current best farm system in baseball and no "big trade deadline guy" then the bare cubbard the White Sox are working with via farm system and having Peavy avail in a trade.
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