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  • In Memoriam: Nick Blackburn

    The Twins have announced that starting pitcher Nick Blackburn will have surgery on Friday to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee, likely ending both his season and his career in Minnesota. This will be Blackburn’s third procedure in the past calendar year, and he has been limited to just six minor league starts this season as a result. With the Twins holding an $8M club option for 2014, this will surely mark the end of his time with the organization.

    Blackburn debuted with the Twins in 2007, appearing in six games out of the bullpen as a September call-up that season. He cracked the starting rotation out of spring training the following year, and put together remarkably similar back-to-back solid campaigns in 2008-09.

    W-L GS IP K% BB% HR/FB ERA FIP fWAR rWAR
    2008 11-11 33 193.1 11.7 4.7 10.0 4.05 4.40 2.4 2.3
    2009 11-11 33 205.2 11.1 4.7 9.4 4.03 4.37 2.9 3.2

    Blackburn parlayed those two years into a four-year contract worth $14M dollars, a deal that bought out all of his arbitration-eligible seasons with the Twins. Unfortunately for both parties, he was never the same pitcher after 2009 – put another way, he was awful. Over the next three years, Blackburn’s miniscule walk rates regressed, his already terrible strikeout rates got even worse, and his HR/FB rates skyrocketed. Factor in a lost 2013 season, and he has been worth a total of 0.1 WAR over the life of the deal via FanGraphs, and an even sadder -1.7 WAR according to Baseball Reference (!!!).

    For the Twins, the Blackburn contract represents one of the worst in a series of bad moves made by then general manager Bill Smith in his four stellar years at the helm. (Hat tip to Tsuyoshi Nishioka.) Though it seemed defensible at the time given his numbers over the previous two seasons, the deal was essentially a premature long-term investment in a starter incapable of striking batters out. (Blackburn’s 11.4% strikeout rate was 5th worst in MLB in that span, among a top 25 that also included future Twins fireballers Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Correia. … Just wow).

    It came at a time when smart front offices were increasingly valuing strikeout pitchers, and was a bad harbinger of things to come regarding the team’s approach to targeting and developing starting pitching. Indeed, perhaps no other pitcher epitomizes the “pitching to contact” philosophy that has so haunted the organization in recent years more than Nick Blackburn.

    For all of the hate that I have (perhaps wrongfully) directed at Blackburn over the past four seasons, part of me wanted to see him pitch at Target Field one last time this season. I hope that he bounces back from his most recent surgery and gets a chance to start for another organization next year – preferably in the AL Central, for obvious reasons. Regardless, his legend will live on in this blog and elsewhere throughout Twins territory as a symbol of the dark times, and his exit as a sign of better days ahead. Deuces Blackie. #p2c

    Originally published at pitching2contact
    This article was originally published in blog: In Memoriam: Nick Blackburn started by jdotmcmahon
    Comments 23 Comments
    1. drjim's Avatar
      drjim -
      Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
      This is purely speculation, but I've always laid the blame for Hardy on Gardy. I don't think Gardy wanted anything to do with him and that precipitated the trade.
      I remember this too and it seemed so bizarre for Gardy. One of Gardy's things is for his fielders to catch the ball and make the plays that they should. Hardy has his weaknesses, but he is very surehanded and will make all plays expected of a SS (if not many more due to relatively limited range).

      I know speed was always cited as a reason, but I wonder if the injuries frustrated Gardy as well.
    1. drjim's Avatar
      drjim -
      Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Brooks View Post
      So you are saying they sold at his lowest possible value? Shocking.
      IMO, there is no spin that can justify this move, although I respect your attempt to do so.
      Bill Smith was in way over his head, but the scariest part is that by the Twins own admission, Terry Ryan was still heavily involved in the Bill Smith era, which makes it confusing when I hear people try to give Ryan a pass for "the mess that Bill Smith left him". (Not saying you are doing that, just going a bit off topic.)
      I think this is the worst move of the Bill Smith era. And there are several competitors.
    1. TheLeviathan's Avatar
      TheLeviathan -
      Quote Originally Posted by drjim View Post
      I know speed was always cited as a reason, but I wonder if the injuries frustrated Gardy as well.
      The injuries were my basis for suspicion.
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