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  • Putting Sano's Power In Perspective

    Since 2006, 851 players have logged at least 200 PAs in the Florida State League (High A). This is a sample of players that includes guys like Giancarlo Stanton (age 19), Jay Bruce (20), JP Arencibia (22), Allen Craig (22), and Domonic Brown (21).

    Another 746 have logged at least 200 PAs in the Eastern League (AA) since 2006. Players include Brandon Belt (22), Matt Wieters (22), Pedro Alvarez (22), Ike Davis (22), Kevin Kouzmanoff (24), Josh Reddick (22), Carlos Santana (23), Brennan Boesch (24), and Adam Lind (22).

    Miguel Sano has logged 200 PAs in both leagues. He's also put up the single highest ISO since fangraphs started tracking these statistics in 2006. In BOTH leagues.

    (ISO, or Isolated Power, is Slugging Percentage minus batting average. So it measures pure power - how good a player is at accumulating "extra" bases in the form of doubles, triples and home runs.) Here's a quick look at the top 50 performances, by ISO:



    Five players posted .250 or better ISO seasons at age 20 or younger in the Florida State League. Of these, only Giancarlo Stanton went on to post a better ISO in AA as a 20-year-old in the Southern League (although Javier Baez is holding a .352 ISO through 194 PAs, also in the Southern league).

    As stated above, the sample includes all players with a minimum of 200 PAs in either league. If a player hit a lot of gap triples and bloop doubles, ISO could be measuring speed more than power (ISO is Slg%-Avg, or total bases, not including 1st base, divided by ABs). In order to eliminate that possibility, we can just look at home run rate, expressed as AB/HR.



    Sano ranks 2nd and 4th in home run rates (tops for the EL) since 2006. If you have been following Sano's year, this shouldn't be a surprise - he has 31 bombs after all. And look at the ages at the top of that list. One of these things is not like the other.

    So there you have it. Sano's 2013 ranks among the top power seasons in both the Eastern League and the Florida State League dating back to 2006, in just about any way you care to measure power. And he's done it at a younger age than anyone except Giancarlo Stanton.
    This article was originally published in blog: Putting Sano's power in perspective started by Willihammer
    Comments 16 Comments
    1. amjgt's Avatar
      amjgt -
      Honestly, I'm fairly familiar with advanced stats, but ISO is one I had never really looked into. Seems like a perfect pair with OBP, to create OPS+ISO, rather than OPS+SLG (which double-counts hits).

      Now that I think about it, isn't ISO just (SLG%-BA)?
    1. Danchat's Avatar
      Danchat -
      I spotted Wilkin Ramirez on that list.
      Wow, Sano is good. Hope this guy will be our cleanup hitter for the next 10 years.
    1. The Wise One's Avatar
      The Wise One -
      That is nice you did that list. The problem with ISO though is as follows per fangraphs

      It takes a long time for a player’s ISO to have predictive power going forward; a sample size of 550 plate appearances is recommended to draw any conclusions. In other words, if Albert Pujols has a .550 ISO two weeks into the season, it’s way too early to expect that to continue.

      There are a quite a few players on the list who only made it up for a cup of coffee.
    1. kab21's Avatar
      kab21 -
      Quote Originally Posted by The Wise One View Post
      That is nice you did that list. The problem with ISO though is as follows per fangraphs

      It takes a long time for a player’s ISO to have predictive power going forward; a sample size of 550 plate appearances is recommended to draw any conclusions. In other words, if Albert Pujols has a .550 ISO two weeks into the season, it’s way too early to expect that to continue.

      There are a quite a few players on the list who only made it up for a cup of coffee.
      Sano has 1284 MiLB AB's and a .287 isoP. And his isoP is trending upward so I'm not concerned.
    1. mudcat14's Avatar
      mudcat14 -
      The problem that I have with this list/stat is, what does it matter? In fairness many of the 40 or so names on that list are still working their way up, but many others haven't and won't ever play in a MLB game.
    1. kab21's Avatar
      kab21 -
      Quote Originally Posted by mudcat14 View Post
      The problem that I have with this list/stat is, what does it matter? In fairness many of the 40 or so names on that list are still working their way up, but many others haven't and won't ever play in a MLB game.
      How is this a problem?

      I see Sano having a historical season when compared vs anyone and everyone that has played in the FSL and EL. It doesn't matter if they are much older, incredibly lucky compared to their careers or one of the best young players in the game.
    1. mudcat14's Avatar
      mudcat14 -
      Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
      How is this a problem?

      I see Sano having a historical season when compared vs anyone and everyone that has played in the FSL and EL. It doesn't matter if they are much older, incredibly lucky compared to their careers or one of the best young players in the game.
      Sorry. Problem was a poor choice of words. My point is the list and stat don't portend any tendency for future success. Ten of the 18 players who are on that list from prior to 2010 have yet to make their MLB debut. Don't get me wrong, I'd much rather Miguel be at the top of that list than the bottom. I'm just not convinced that it's a very meaningful stat.
    1. The Wise One's Avatar
      The Wise One -
      Quote Originally Posted by mudcat14 View Post
      Sorry. Problem was a poor choice of words. My point is the list and stat don't portend any tendency for future success. Ten of the 18 players who are on that list from prior to 2010 have yet to make their MLB debut. Don't get me wrong, I'd much rather Miguel be at the top of that list than the bottom. I'm just not convinced that it's a very meaningful stat.
      ISO means when someone hits the ball the player runs a lot of bases in that at bat. Nothing more, nothing less.
    1. Oxtung's Avatar
      Oxtung -
      Quote Originally Posted by The Wise One View Post
      ISO means when someone hits the ball the player runs a lot of bases in that at bat. Nothing more, nothing less.
      Or stand and admire their handy work before making the long, slow trot around the bases.
    1. jokin's Avatar
      jokin -
      Quote Originally Posted by mudcat14 View Post
      The problem that I have with this list/stat is, what does it matter? In fairness many of the 40 or so names on that list are still working their way up, but many others haven't and won't ever play in a MLB game.
      How many compiled their stats in a single season, and at age 20?
    1. jokin's Avatar
      jokin -
      Quote Originally Posted by The Wise One View Post

      There are a quite a few players on the list who only made it up for a cup of coffee.
      Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
      Sano has 1284 MiLB AB's and a .287 isoP. And his isoP is trending upward so I'm not concerned.
      Not only "not concerned" in the least, I'm incredibly excited about a kid who has only just started to scratch his full potential; barring injury, Sano's career will profoundly impact, and possibly forever change, the Twins landscape- for far, far longer than a single cup of coffee. I still can't believe that there are some out there that don't recognize this.
    1. The Wise One's Avatar
      The Wise One -
      Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
      . I still can't believe that there are some out there that don't recognize this.
      Fans are to be excited about the players for their team. All to soon it spirals down. Expectations will be placed so high that the kid will never be able to match that.
      The list was put out. I saw a lot of older players that never went anywhere. I can't believe you would take a comment on the older players as a rip on Sano. Clearly there is a difference there.
    1. Willihammer's Avatar
      Willihammer -
      Quote Originally Posted by mudcat14 View Post
      The problem that I have with this list/stat is, what does it matter? In fairness many of the 40 or so names on that list are still working their way up, but many others haven't and won't ever play in a MLB game.
      That's a fair question and I agree that the leaderboard here, sorted by ISO without respect to age, isn't all that impressive. I guess I was a little fixated on the fact that Sano's ISO ranked first but that doesn't provide a lot of context.

      Here is a top-50 sorted first by age and then by descending ISO. It also brings Buxton into the picture:



      Maybe that's a better way to look at it.
    1. jokin's Avatar
      jokin -
      Quote Originally Posted by The Wise One View Post
      Fans are to be excited about the players for their team. All to soon it spirals down. Expectations will be placed so high that the kid will never be able to match that.
      The list was put out. I saw a lot of older players that never went anywhere. I can't believe you would take a comment on the older players as a rip on Sano. Clearly there is a difference there.
      I'm sorry, but I'm not following your line of thinking here. Please check on the fine, hard work that Willihammer is doing in the post previous to mine, which brings this whole discussion into the proper focus and context. These guys are not only matching, surpassing and/or completely outclassing their competitive peers, they are doing it against "peer" players who are generally 4-5 years older than they are.
    1. mudcat14's Avatar
      mudcat14 -
      In case I failed to make it clear, my ho-hum attitude towards the list that launched this thread in no way dampens my enthusiasm over the future of Miguel Sano. I've been closely following the Twins since the late sixties, and can't remember ever being so excited about ANY prospects as I am with Sano & Buxton. Mauer was close, but he never projected the all-around talents of Buxton, or the power of Sano. Let's face it. Not only do chicks dig the long ball, but so do long-suffering, middle-aged Twins fans.
    1. kab21's Avatar
      kab21 -
      Quote Originally Posted by mudcat14 View Post
      Sorry. Problem was a poor choice of words. My point is the list and stat don't portend any tendency for future success. Ten of the 18 players who are on that list from prior to 2010 have yet to make their MLB debut. Don't get me wrong, I'd much rather Miguel be at the top of that list than the bottom. I'm just not convinced that it's a very meaningful stat.
      I think it's incredibly meaningful. It shows just how incredible Sano's season is. He is tops on the list that includes anyone and everyone.

      Maybe you don't like isoP but a similar list of pretty much any stat that included all players (including older players) would show a similar list of flameouts and AAAA all-stars.
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