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  • Acquiring Talent The Twins Way: Pitchers (part 2 of 3)

    In Part 1, we looked at the Twins history of acquiring positional talent via the Amateur Draft, Amateur Free Agency, the Rule 5 Draft, Trades, Waivers, and Free Agency, during the Terry Ryan era (1995-2013). Here we will do the same for pitchers.

    PITCHERS

    1. Amateur Draft

    Since 1995, the Twins trail only the Toronto Blue Jays in their reliance on the Amateur Draft for pitching talent, getting 136 player-seasons from 39 pitchers, good for 120 WAR. Notably, Brad Radke owns a full third (45.5 WAR) of that total.
    Overall, the average Twins Amateur Draftee has pitched to a .88 WAR season. But take Radke out of the equation, and the average drops to .60 WAR.






    2. Amateur Free Agency

    The Twins have given 24 player-seasons to Amateur FA pitchers since 1995. Juan Rincon and Jose Mijares share the top 7 highest WAR seasons. Others in this category include Liam Hendriks, Grant Balfour, Michael Nakamura, Rob Delaney, and Cole DeVries. Together they average a 0.29 WAR season.




    3. Rule 5 Draft

    The five Rule 5 Twins player-seasons since 1995 are owned by Scott Diamond (3), Ryan Pressly (1) and Travis Baptist (1). Together they have pitched 432.1 innings for a WAR of 1.9.





    4. Trades

    Trades account for 90 (pitcher) player-seasons since 1995. Of all other AL teams to have existed for the period 1995-2013, only the Angels have been less-reliant on trades to fill their pitching staffs. But, the Twins own the best WAR-average at 1.36, boosted by the acquisitions of Johan Santana (35.4 WAR over 8 seasons), Eric Milton (14.7/6), Joe Nathan (18.3/7), Joe Mays (10.6/6) and Francisco Liriano (9.9/6).




    5. Waivers

    Jeremy Guthrie owns the distinction of most productive pitcher acquired by Waivers since 1995. He was worth 16.5 WARs for the Orioles from 2007-2011. The next closest is Darren O'Day at under 10 WAR. For the Twins, 13 waiver-wire pitchers have been worth 7.6 WAR over 25 player-seasons. Matt Guerrier (7.5 WAR) has been the most productive pickup, with the other 12 players producing just 0.1 WAR.




    6. Free Agency

    Bob Tewksbury remains the best free agent pickup for the Twins. He produced 6.5 WAR at a price of 3.75 million over the 1997-1998 seasons. Overall, Twins FA pitchers average .47 WAR per season, good for 8th in the AL





    So, in order of average WAR, the Twins most successful means of acquiring pitching talent since 1995 are:

    1. Trades (1.36)
    2. The Amateur Draft (.88)
    3. Free Agency (.47)
    4. The Rule 5 Draft (.38)
    5. Waivers (.30)
    6. Amateur Free Agency (.29)
    This article was originally published in blog: Acquiring talent the Twins Way: pitchers (part 2 of 3) started by Willihammer
    Comments 7 Comments
    1. Badsmerf's Avatar
      Badsmerf -
      I still believe Santana should be considered a Rule 5 pick-up, regardless of the trade on draft day. The most disgusting stat that doesn't surprise me is out of the 855 total WAR accumulated during this time, the Twins only account for 28 of it, or just 3.2%. That is just in the AL. This percentage would be much lower if all teams were taken into consideration.

      P.S. Why did you do just the AL? The Twins compete against every team to acquire talent. Doing the entire league would be a much better representation.
    1. Forever34's Avatar
      Forever34 -
      Wasn't Pavano a waiver claim? Couldn't tell you his WAR for the life of me, but he had a couple solid seasons.
    1. Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
      Brock Beauchamp -
      Quote Originally Posted by Forever34 View Post
      Wasn't Pavano a waiver claim? Couldn't tell you his WAR for the life of me, but he had a couple solid seasons.
      Waiver claim and then trade before the waiver trade deadline. Pretty sure the Twins gave up a go-nowhere prospect to get Carl from the Indians.
    1. old nurse's Avatar
      old nurse -
      Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
      Waiver claim and then trade before the waiver trade deadline. Pretty sure the Twins gave up a go-nowhere prospect to get Carl from the Indians.
      Yohan Pino
    1. Badsmerf's Avatar
      Badsmerf -
      Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
      Waiver claim and then trade before the waiver trade deadline. Pretty sure the Twins gave up a go-nowhere prospect to get Carl from the Indians.
      I liked Pino! Well, kinda liked him... at least compared to other Twins prospects at the time. His problem was an 88 MPH fastball if I remember right lol.
    1. gunnarthor's Avatar
      gunnarthor -
      Out of curiosity, do you split up a guy if he was picked up in a trade like Pavano and then resigned here as a FA? Or was all his value put in the trade category?

      Good list. One small point, you wrote "Overall, the average Twins Amateur Draftee has pitched to a .88 WAR season. But take Radke out of the equation, and the average drops to .60 WAR." I think a person could read that and then say Radke skews the results and the Twins real return is .60 WAR, among the worst in the AL. But I would imagine every team has one player who skews high.

      And a follow up question, if I'm reading the chart right, it says the Brewers got 20 seasons from the draft and 20 WAR from them. Ben Sheets was drafted by them and amassed about 25 WAR in 8 seasons. So, did they get -5 WAR in those other 12 seasons or is something amiss?
    1. Badsmerf's Avatar
      Badsmerf -
      Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
      Out of curiosity, do you split up a guy if he was picked up in a trade like Pavano and then resigned here as a FA? Or was all his value put in the trade category?

      Good list. One small point, you wrote "Overall, the average Twins Amateur Draftee has pitched to a .88 WAR season. But take Radke out of the equation, and the average drops to .60 WAR." I think a person could read that and then say Radke skews the results and the Twins real return is .60 WAR, among the worst in the AL. But I would imagine every team has one player who skews high.

      And a follow up question, if I'm reading the chart right, it says the Brewers got 20 seasons from the draft and 20 WAR from them. Ben Sheets was drafted by them and amassed about 25 WAR in 8 seasons. So, did they get -5 WAR in those other 12 seasons or is something amiss?
      That was in the NL, the Brewers were only included for the time they were in the AL.
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