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  • Free Agent Pitcher Profile: Ubaldo Jimenez

    The Indians made a bold move at the trade deadline in 2011, trading away multiple top prospects to acquire Ubaldo Jimenez, a 27-year-old right-hander who was viewed at the time as one of the premier pitching talents in the National League. An imposing presence with a mid-90s fastball, Jimenez had steadily improved in the seasons leading up to 2010, when he went 19-8 with a 2.88 ERA to finish third in the Cy Young voting.

    Jimenez wasn't been the same guy over the first half of the 2011 season in Colorado, posting a 4.46 ERA with significantly diminished velocity, but Cleveland still jumped at the opportunity to add a potential ace in his physical prime. As it turned out, the righty's troubles only worsened after the trade. He put up a 5.10 ERA in 11 starts down the stretch while the Indians rapidly faded from contention, and then trudged through a tumultuous 2012 campaign in which he lost 17 games with a 5.40 ERA, adding a career-high 4.8 BB/9 and a career-low 7.3 K/9. In two years, Jimenez had gone from superstar to liability.

    He bounced back in a major way this season, and the timing could hardly have been better for him. In his final year under contract, Jimenez went 13-9 with a 3.30 ERA, pushing his K-rate all the way back up 9.6 while showing dramatically improved control. Although his velocity dropped for a third consecutive year, his secondary stuff was as good as ever, and in the second half Jimenez looked every bit the part of a No. 1 starter, posting a 1.82 ERA and 100/27 K/BB ratio while holding opponents to a .606 OPS. He notched double-digit strikeouts in four of his last eight starts.

    Why Does He Fit?

    His performance this season, especially toward the end, is awfully tantalizing. That's a guy that could legitimately be called an ace -- something the Twins have mostly lacked since Johan Santana's departure. He also doesn't turn 30 until January, so in theory you're not looking at any imminent decline.

    While he's had his ups and downs in terms of performance and there are questions about the condition of his arm based on draining gas, he's been able to take the mound every five days throughout his career up to this point. Jimenez has made 31-plus starts in each of his six seasons since becoming a full-time big-leaguer. Only six pitchers have made more starts since 2008.

    Why Doesn't He Fit?

    There are no two ways about it: Jimenez is a massive risk. Even though he was able to succeed with a 91 MPH fastball this year, his steadily declining velocity is clearly a red flag, and he's still only a year removed from being one of the worst pitchers in the league.

    Considering his age, his recent performance and the state of the market, Jimenez will surely require a sizable long-term deal. The Twins might have to go above and beyond what others are offering in order to lure him to a current non-contender. As enticing as his upside is, the downside may simply be too great to justify an unprecedented financial commitment. Beyond the money, signing Jimenez would also probably cost the Twins a high draft pick, as Cleveland seems likely to make a qualifying offer.

    What Will He Cost?

    The Offseason Handbook pegs his estimated contract at four years and $64 million, which coincidentally is the same guess we made on Tim Lincecum, who was profiled here on Tuesday. Lincecum ended up inking an extension with the Giants later that day at two years and $35 million. What does that tell us about Jimenez, who is similar to Lincecum in that his velocity has declined as he's approached 30? Compared to The Freak, Jimenez would seem to offer a lower ceiling and deeper floor, but he's also coming off a much better year. Sixty-four million still looks like a reasonable guess to me.

    Would you pay that for a 30-year-old who was an ace this season, but mostly a disaster in the two years preceding?
    This article was originally published in blog: Free Agent Pitcher Profile: Ubaldo Jimenez started by Nick Nelson
    Comments 47 Comments
    1. Paul Pleiss's Avatar
      Paul Pleiss -
      Mostly I want Ubaldo on the Twins so I can get a shirt that says "U-ballin w/ Ubaldo" or something to that extent, as long as it has "U-ballin" somewhere. I'd be quite pleased if the Twins signed Ubaldo. 4/64 seems solid, obviously I'd prefer to see a 2/3 year deal, even a 2/35 like Timmy. The Twins May have some pitching coming up through their system, and inking questionable "stars" to long term deals is something I'd avoid, however, the lack of high-minors pitching talent puts me squarely in the Ubaldo territory. Sign him. Give up the 2nd round draft pick.
    1. Dave T's Avatar
      Dave T -
      I'd rather overpay for Jimenez than Correia.
    1. Heimer's Avatar
      Heimer -
      Jimenez is close to the wrong side of thirty with his continue decrease of velocity, the twins might get two more good years out of him. Id rather try to get lucky in the second round and get a guy that can help us for TEN years.

      But if the twins were expected to contend in two years, I would say yes.
    1. kab21's Avatar
      kab21 -
      Quote Originally Posted by Heimer View Post
      Jimenez is close to the wrong side of thirty with his continue decrease of velocity, the twins might get two more good years out of him. Id rather try to get lucky in the second round and get a guy that can help us for TEN years.

      But if the twins were expected to contend in two years, I would say yes.
      The Twins won't be held back by lack of prospects. They will be held back by never having enough effective MLB'ers to add prospects to. Ubaldo only costs money and a what likely amounts to a marginal prospect. Adding an above average arm is exactly what this team needs (now and 3 years from now).

      I already showed draft results for the Twins (and the entire MLB) is really sketchy once you get close to the 2nd rd. And even if that pick turned out it will probably take 3-4 years to even make the majors.

      I think you are also prematurely jumping the gun by saying that someone won't be effective at age 32.
    1. Willihammer's Avatar
      Willihammer -
      The Offseason Handbook pegs his estimated contract at four years and $64 million
      This would please everyone wouldn't it? Those of us who'd like to watch a better product would get a front of the rotation talent. Those concerned about the profitability of the product and breaking minor league talent into the rotation would have a starter coming off the books in each of the next 5 years. Everybody wins.

      I guess there is the question of - would Ubaldo go for 4/64. At this point, I think most of us would be surprised if he could do better than that anywhere else.
    1. Otwins's Avatar
      Otwins -
      I don't think he will get near 4/64. The teams that make the most sense to me are Toronto and the Yanks- I still do not see him as a fit for the Twins
    1. oldguy10's Avatar
      oldguy10 -
      I agree 100% with Kab21's comment way back in October about adding the right pieces in MLB right now to augment the good prospects coming along. If management does not do that there is little or no success to look forward to in regards to moving up in the standings.
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