• Three-Bagger: Arroyo, Guerrier & Albers

    * We've reached the end of January and Bronson Arroyo still hasn't found a home. In fact, according to the veteran right-hander, he still hasn't even received an official offer. As Jayson Stark notes in his column, that's rather surprising considering that Arroyo is one of only two MLB pitchers (along with Mark Buehrle) to log 199 or more innings in each of the last nine seasons.

    When baseball teams are committing huge sums of guaranteed money to pitchers, durability is a primary consideration, and few hurlers in the game can boast a track record that compares to Arroyo's. On top of that, he wasn't offered arbitration by the Reds so signing him would not require the forfeiture of a draft pick.

    And yet, there he sits. There were reports earlier in the offseason that the Twins were gaining momentum in talks with the righty, but apparently no contract was actually offered. There has been no recent buzz connecting the two sides.

    I've felt pretty firmly that the Twins were done adding pitchers after they signed with Mike Pelfrey (with the exception of a possible minor-league contract for someone like Johan Santana), so even if Arroyo's price keeps dropping, I can't see him ending up here.

    However, it's starting to look like some club is going to end up getting a reasonable deal on this proven veteran workhorse. I never would have guessed that at the outset of the offseason.

    * Ryan and the Twins continue to take fliers on former players who -- at least based on recent history -- appear to be washed up. The latest is Matt Guerrier, who joins Jason Bartlett and Jason Kubel as players to rejoin the organization in the wake of seasons that were marred by injury, poor performance or (in Bartlett's case) not actually playing.

    I've got no problem with the strategy. How could you? There's no risk here. The Twins are guaranteeing essentially nothing to these players -- not even a spot on the 40-man roster -- and each has shown at some point within the past few years that he can play at a high level.

    The Twins are already a little crowded in the bullpen, giving Guerrier a much tougher path to making the roster than Bartlett, who's trying to catch on in a shaky infield, or Kubel, who looks like the odds-on favorite to be regular DH despite his brutal 2013 campaign.

    Guerrier is presently rehabbing from flexor tendon surgery in his elbow last August. That's a fairly significant operation, especially for a 35-year-old, so he's not exactly a great bet to come back and make an impact. With that said, he has remained largely effective when on the mound, so if he can indeed make a full recovery, he could end up being a great depth grab.

    * The Twins announced on Thursday the unconditional release of Andrew Albers, officially clearing way for the left-hander to head to Korea and continue his career.

    The deal was held up a bit by some procedural complications, but it has been apparent for a while now that Albers was on his way out and -- as I wrote last week -- that's the right move for both him and the Twins. His departure leaves a spot open on the 40-man roster, but I wouldn't expect it to be filled very quickly.

    With just a couple weeks remaining until spring training, the Twins now have flexibility to make any late additions; a bench bat for the infield would seem to be the most likely.

    There is also a good chance they'll need space on the 40-man in order to add Kubel and/or any other non-roster invitees who emerge in spring training. Albers could have very well been the odd man out in such a scenario anyway.
    This article was originally published in blog: Three-Bagger: Arroyo, Guerrier & Albers started by Nick Nelson
    Comments 23 Comments
    1. Knotholemike's Avatar
      Knotholemike -
      The fact that Arroyo "has not received an offer" is a little misleading. If his agent said the minimum we'll take is "$x" million per year and/or "x" number of years a team is not going to make an offer if their offer would be less than that minimum. This is why agents/teams "circle back" with one another as the off-season progresses to see if either side has changed their stance. Arroyo is probably still holding out for more dollars/years than anyone wants to offer at this point.
    1. Heimer's Avatar
      Heimer -
      How many spots are currently open on the 40 man roster?
    1. pierre75275's Avatar
      pierre75275 -
      Quote Originally Posted by Heimer View Post
      How many spots are currently open on the 40 man roster?
      Just one.
    1. tobi0040's Avatar
      tobi0040 -
      Quote Originally Posted by Knotholemike View Post
      The fact that Arroyo "has not received an offer" is a little misleading. If his agent said the minimum we'll take is "$x" million per year and/or "x" number of years a team is not going to make an offer if their offer would be less than that minimum. This is why agents/teams "circle back" with one another as the off-season progresses to see if either side has changed their stance. Arroyo is probably still holding out for more dollars/years than anyone wants to offer at this point.
      If Arroyo's price falls into the 2/16 to 2/18 range I could see Terry signing him and selling high on Correa. You don't want five veterans blocking Meyer and Gibson, on a team that is unlikely to compete.
    1. Shane Wahl's Avatar
      Shane Wahl -
      Arroyo is going to end up signing a one-year, $10 million contract.

      I honestly am not being whine-tastic here, but looking back, that Nolasco deal is not nearly as good as it seemed at the time (and I didn't like it that much at the time either). That said, I would rather the Twins be aggressive and get out ahead of other teams than wait on the whims of the market. It just turned out to kinda go south.
    1. troyhobbs's Avatar
      troyhobbs -
      I'd be fine with signing Arroyo so at least they have some respectable options at SP. I only see them winning about 70 games this year and I don't think Arroyo would do much to change that but still would be an improvement to the rotation.
    1. nicksaviking's Avatar
      nicksaviking -
      Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
      Arroyo is going to end up signing a one-year, $10 million contract.

      I honestly am not being whine-tastic here, but looking back, that Nolasco deal is not nearly as good as it seemed at the time (and I didn't like it that much at the time either). That said, I would rather the Twins be aggressive and get out ahead of other teams than wait on the whims of the market. It just turned out to kinda go south.
      I agree that the Nolasco deal isn't as good as first percieved, but I'm still happy the Twins showed some agression. Still, it could be worse, the Twins could have given Jason Vargas a 4 year deal instead. The Royals are probably the team that's kicking themselves right now.
    1. tobi0040's Avatar
      tobi0040 -
      Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
      I agree that the Nolasco deal isn't as good as first percieved, but I'm still happy the Twins showed some agression. Still, it could be worse, the Twins could have given Jason Vargas a 4 year deal instead. The Royals are probably the team that's kicking themselves right now.
      I agree completely. Every other year we wait for the prices to fall and they don't. At least we improved our staff this year.
    1. h2oface's Avatar
      h2oface -
      Arroyo brings his demand down for a 1 yr deal with a mutual option for a second and he is signed right away. At 38, it is time to bet on yourself year to year and get paid what you deserve year by year. A player should only want to be paid for the work they do, and not sitting around injured. Bet on yourself, and earn the highest money you can year by year.
    1. Wookiee of the Year's Avatar
      Wookiee of the Year -
      Quote Originally Posted by Nick Nelson View Post
      I've got no problem with the strategy. How could you? There's no risk here. The Twins are guaranteeing essentially nothing to these players -- not even a spot on the 40-man roster -- and each has shown at some point within the past few years that he can play at a high level.
      It also offers some reassurance that players like and respect the Twins organization. We hear Kubel passed up a major league contract to sign with the Twins; even for the others, I'm sure they could've found minor league deals elsewhere. You're doing something right when former players choose you as the club with which to sign their minor league deals, and it's an advantage I hope we can continue to hold in future years. (...Or maybe even this year, with a Johan signing?)


      Quote Originally Posted by Nick Nelson View Post
      [Albers'] departure leaves a spot open on the 40-man roster, but I wouldn't expect it to be filled very quickly.
      That spot's got Kubel's name written all over it.
    1. tobi0040's Avatar
      tobi0040 -
      Quote Originally Posted by h2oface View Post
      Arroyo brings his demand down for a 1 yr deal with a mutual option for a second and he is signed right away. At 38, it is time to bet on yourself year to year and get paid what you deserve year by year. A player should only want to be paid for the work they do, and not sitting around injured. Bet on yourself, and earn the highest money you can year by year.
      Here is a good article about Arroyo. They think he will eventually get 2/20 with an option. I would do that and move Correa as I think last year he out-performed. You get a better pitcher for another year for a little more. I am guessing we wished we signed Arroyo instead of Pelfrey.


      http://espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/s...oyo-unemployed
    1. Rosterman's Avatar
      Rosterman -
      There is no need to keep a roster spot open because of an add come the end of spring training. Someone either makes the roster or doesn't. If Kubel pushes aside Colabello or Parmelee, so be it. If Guerrier seems a better choice than Diamond or Worley, let it happen. Plus, you always get at least one guy that you can 60-day (Deduno, perhaps).
    1. johnnydakota's Avatar
      johnnydakota -
      Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
      Here is a good article about Arroyo. They think he will eventually get 2/20 with an option. I would do that and move Correa as I think last year he out-performed. You get a better pitcher for another year for a little more. I am guessing we wished we signed Arroyo instead of Pelfrey.


      http://espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/s...oyo-unemployed
      Not so thrilled about Bronson , even if he is an upgrade, but completely agree,about moving Correia, he might be at his all time high in trade value.
    1. TheLeviathan's Avatar
      TheLeviathan -
      Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
      Arroyo is going to end up signing a one-year, $10 million contract.

      I honestly am not being whine-tastic here, but looking back, that Nolasco deal is not nearly as good as it seemed at the time (and I didn't like it that much at the time either). That said, I would rather the Twins be aggressive and get out ahead of other teams than wait on the whims of the market. It just turned out to kinda go south.
      It's too bad for the Twins. The offseason they finally realize "hey, we can't sleep on addressing our needs" is the offseason that falling asleep at the wheel for a few months might have really paid off.

      In the long run, what they did this year was the right thing. Let's hope that belief hasn't wavered with some of the other signings that are going down.
    1. jcphitman's Avatar
      jcphitman -
      I'd much rather have what the Twins did this year than them waiting for nothing but the bargain bin in previous years. Last year it was tough to find pitchers to take their money. This year they found some good enough pitchers who will hopefully help. I hope they don't think waiting is now the norm. Tanaka really stalled the market. Had he not been around, I think the market would have went much quicker than it did.
    1. Jim H's Avatar
      Jim H -
      I have a hard time understanding why everyone wants to get rid of Correia. Of all the pitchers on the Twins roster this spring, he was the 2nd best pitcher(next to Nolasco) in 2013 at the major league level. On top of that, does anybody really think he will back a haul in trade? Finally, I expect that the chances of him being one of the 5 best major league pitchers of the available options, is probably better than just about anyone not named Nolasco. So why really, do so many of you want to get rid of him?
    1. tobi0040's Avatar
      tobi0040 -
      Quote Originally Posted by Jim H View Post
      I have a hard time understanding why everyone wants to get rid of Correia. Of all the pitchers on the Twins roster this spring, he was the 2nd best pitcher(next to Nolasco) in 2013 at the major league level. On top of that, does anybody really think he will back a haul in trade? Finally, I expect that the chances of him being one of the 5 best major league pitchers of the available options, is probably better than just about anyone not named Nolasco. So why really, do so many of you want to get rid of him?
      From my perspective, he is a career 4.45 guy, mainly in the NL. His last year in Pittsburgh he was moved to the bullpen. Then he comes to the AL and has a 4.20. This would be a great time to sell high. I would not want to give him an extension based on last year because I don't think we will see a repeat.
    1. Jim H's Avatar
      Jim H -
      Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
      From my perspective, he is a career 4.45 guy, mainly in the NL. His last year in Pittsburgh he was moved to the bullpen. Then he comes to the AL and has a 4.20. This would be a great time to sell high. I would not want to give him an extension based on last year because I don't think we will see a repeat.
      Oh, I don't expect anything all that great from Correia, I just don't expect much of anything from most of the other candidates either. At least until Gibson, Meyer and perhaps others from the farm system get established. Also, I don't believe there is any "sell high" on Correia. All big league clubs are as aware of his track record as we are. There are somewhat comparable guys still available as free agents. Why would anyone trade for Correia at this time? I am certainly not advocating an extention for Correia either. Just keep him around until you are sure you have 5 better starters and some minor league guys trending upward.
    1. TheLeviathan's Avatar
      TheLeviathan -
      Quote Originally Posted by Jim H View Post
      So why really, do so many of you want to get rid of him?
      Correia may be better than Gibson in 2014. Gibson learning to be better in the majors for 2015-2020 is vastly more important, however. As is the potential contribution of anyone that might be with the team long term. Wasting those opportunities to invest in the future in the name of a pitcher (who had his best year in recent memory and still was "meh") - is a poor choice for a rebuilding team.
    1. Oxtung's Avatar
      Oxtung -
      I agree with Jim H, Correia wouldn't bring back much of value currently. There are other options out there that could be had for just money instead of money and prospects. The trade deadline will be when Correia could bring back something useful. Perhaps a future bullpen piece, a young guy at A ball the Twins like, or perhaps a guy like Gilmartin who is talented but has been injured or just couldn't put it all together.
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