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  • Jason Kubel Off To A Fast Start

    Letís just say Jason Kubelís return to Minnesota was not exactly met with wild enthusiasm from Twins fandom.

    Based on the previous seasonís production -- a stomach-turning batting line of .216/.293/.317 (avg/obp/slg) with just five home runs in 290 plate appearances -- you could not fault anyone on the outside looking in for faulting the acquisition. Nevertheless Kubel and those close to him maintained that, at 31-years-old, the left-handed outfielder-slash-designated hitter was not over the hill. After all, Iím 33 and if I can still dress myself, cook my own meals and wipe my own bottom, surely Jason Kubel, a finely tuned athlete, could still hit a sphere thrown at him.

    When he departed the Twins, he may not have thrown kerosene on the club but in his exit interview he criticized the home ballpark, suggesting it was frustrating to hit in the left-handed power suppressing stadium. To make matters worse, Kubel groaned to the Phoenix media of his displeasure at having been a designated hitter -- suggesting it was ďboringĒ.

    [Writerís Note: Oh, really? You know what I find boring, Jason? Working at an office for nine hours a day.]

    On his return to his original organization, he insisted he was just stymied by a quad injury that lingered throughout the 2013 season, and not aging or anything affiliated with that. His quad was now healed. Oh, and that whole Target Field configuration thing? He was fine with that now too.

    Except all spring training, it didnít seem fine. He went nine-for-fifty-two. A .196 average with two extra base hits and 17 strikeouts. Certainly some of those plate appearances were against real, honest-to-goodness, major league starters and others were against OH-MY-GAWD-THATíS-JASON-KUBEL-type pitchers with a tight endís number on their jersey. While the spring training numbers are meaningless, the performance just reduced the overall confidence in the decision to bring him back.

    Still, the Twins brass continued to insist they saw a noticeable improvement out of Kubel despite what the numbers said. He was squaring up balls better in the latter portion of the spring and taking better at-bats. That, and the lack of outfield-slash-bench options, made him a prime candidate to head north despite not being on the 40-man roster.

    Perhaps he needed to be above the Mason-Dixon line in order to hit because, once there, he put on a show. As the current American League batting average leader, Kubel has begun the season 13-for-29 (.448) with five extra base hits including one long blast at Target Field, a stadium which now canít hold him.

    Kubelís biggest improvement at the plate has been his connectivity. Last year his swing was holier than the Pope. In his contact rate heat map from ESPN/trumedia, you see that his swings were often empty -- he swung and missed on nearly 33% of his swings, well above the league average rate of 22%. This season, while still above average, he has reined in the errant swings to a more manageable rate (25%).

    Here is a side-by-side of his contact heat map with 2013 on the left and 2014 on the right (click to embiggen):



    Whatís more is that when Kubel did make contact last year, it was not only weak, it was often late. His pull rate dropped considerably.



    Where this really stands out is against the fastball, a pitch Kubel used to flourish against. As I wrote at the time of the Kubel acquisition:

    ďOne of Kubel's biggest issues in 2013 was his inability to handle fastballs. According to ESPN Stats & Info, in 2012 Kubel hit .298/.368/.616 with 20 home runs and a whopping .309 well-hit average. That dropped considerably in 2013 when he finished the year hitting .261/.315/.400 with just 3 home runs and a well-hit average of .171 off of fastballs.Ē

    Yes, the production was bad against the cheese but it was not until an comparison of his (fastball) spray charts of last year and this year when facing that it is clear Kubel may be fully healed as he and the coaching staff insisted. Last season, he was unable to get around on the heat, often hitting lazy fly balls. This year he is once again yanking that pitch into and over the right field wall.



    All standard small sample size warnings apply. However, Kubelís early season production in addition to these indicators are reassuring that he is in good health. If he can remain in the lineup, the Twins could wind up with a solid bargain out of a minor league signing.

    There still is, of course, a lot of baseball left but, so far, the signs are good for Jason Kubel.
    Comments 9 Comments
    1. Dman's Avatar
      Dman -
      I was a flip flopper on Kubel. At first I thought it was a good idea for the Twins to get him and then after spring training I thought keeping him was an extremely bad idea. Luckily I don't run the Twins front office. I never imagined him having this kind of success this early in the season. I hope he can keep it up and make me eat even more crow.
    1. BigTrane's Avatar
      BigTrane -
      "Mason-Dixie" line?
      Is that the line north of which you can't find a Winn-Dixie?

      Maybe you mean Mason-Dixon line...

      Anyway, great article, and fingers crossed on Kube.
    1. Parker Hageman's Avatar
      Parker Hageman -
      "Mason-Dixie" line?
      Is that the line north of which you can't find a Winn-Dixie?

      Maybe you mean Mason-Dixon line...
      What can I say? I was out late rioting over the Gophers big win.
    1. USAFChief's Avatar
      USAFChief -
      Quote Originally Posted by Parker Hageman View Post
      What can I say? I was out late rioting over the Gophers big win.
      I know the NIT championship is a big moment in Gopher Nation history, but I had no idea the party was still going on!
    1. crarko's Avatar
      crarko -
      Quote Originally Posted by Parker Hageman View Post
      What can I say? I was out late rioting over the Gophers big win.
      Oh, that was you jumping up and down on the cop car.
    1. lukingood's Avatar
      lukingood -
      The major thing I notice about Kubel is that it looks like he has lost weight. He has never been a player blessed with speed, but at the game yesterday there were a couple plays into the left field corner that he moved very well and un-Kubel like towards. A person might even say he looked graceful out there yesterday. I was doubtful about the signing of Kubel, but he has looked great. A platoon with he and Mastrionni might make a lot of sense.
    1. Parker Hageman's Avatar
      Parker Hageman -
      This comment was posted over at the Strib's TwinsCentric blog on this topic:

      Hopefully he stays hot and they can trade him for some prospects before the deadline.
      Yeah, that's about right, right?
    1. Don't Feed the Greed Guy's Avatar
      Don't Feed the Greed Guy -
      Great writing, Parker. Indeed, at 31 you can dress yourself, cook, clean, and write like hell. Holy Pope!!
    1. Jim H's Avatar
      Jim H -
      Quote Originally Posted by Parker Hageman View Post
      This comment was posted over at the Strib's TwinsCentric blog on this topic:



      Yeah, that's about right, right?
      Or, alternatively, you keep him around until you actually have someone who can replace his production. It isn't like he is all that old. It is entirely possible that he can be a productive DH for a few years, at least.
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