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  • Twins Draft Preview: Mock Draft v.3.0

    This is the third and final (as of now) mock draft in advance of this weekend's MLB draft. You can view the first mock and second mock as well.

    Before I get into it, I'm going to post what I believe is the Twins draft board (explanation to follow):

    1) Brady Aiken, LHP, California prep
    2) Nick Gordon, SS, Florida prep
    3) Alex Jackson, C/OF, California prep
    4) Tyler Kolek, RHP, Texas prep
    5) Sean Newcomb, LHP, Hartford

    I think, talent-wise, that Carlos Rodon, LHP, NC State should be included, but I don't get the feeling that the Twins are confident they could fit Rodon into their budget. While Boras represents Rodon, I don't think that really matters; Rodon doesn't appear to be willing to settle for anything less than Top 2 money.

    I'm also not entirely confident that Kolek, Newcomb and Aaron Nola, RHP, LSU (who would be #6) are in the correct order. In essence, any one of those guys could be #4 on their board. As it is, if the Top 3 (plus Rodon) are off the board when the Twins go on the clock, they might just pull the trigger on Newcomb, who could be #1 on their board and immediately know they'll be able to aim higher for the rest of the draft.

    But enough about the Twins (even though that's why you're here). There are four other teams ahead of them that could really mess things up. Let's get right into it...

    1. Houston - Brady Aiken, LPH, California prep - I'm going to leave this one alone, for the simple fact that I have no reason to change it. My mind says Aiken; but my body, my body is telling me Alex Jackson. I think this will be debated in the Houston draft room until the clock starts ticking. (Last week: No change)

    2. Miami - Alex Jackson, C/OF, California prep - I actually switched this to Rodon, did the write-up and talked myself out of it. The deciding factor for me - and it may mean nothing - is giving up that Comp pick last weekend (and the money attached to it). If they knew it was going to take extra money to get Rodon done, wouldn't they have used some of that money on Rodon, if that's what it took? Yeah, plus the Marlins owners are dumb. So who really knows. (Last week: No change)

    3. Chicago White Sox - Carlos Rodon, LHP, NC State - I've had Kolek in this place the previous two times, but it sounds like teams are getting cold feet when it comes to drafting a guy that, essentially, only has big velo. Unprecedented really, but a big risk. If they roll with Kolek, the Rodon drop could get long. (Last week: Tyler Kolek, RHP, Texas prep)

    4. Chicago Cubs - Kyle Schwarber, C, Indiana - Not necessarily the first, second or third direction I'd go here, but I can't ignore the late buzz despite my better judgment telling me it's a smokescreen to drive down the money demand from Nick Gordon. (Last week - Carlos Rodon, LHP, NC State)

    5. Minnesota - Nick Gordon, SS, Florida prep - Gordon goes here because he's the top-ranked player left according to the board above. Honestly, the Twins would love for it to play out this way. People are going to hate on passing on Kolek. Not this guy. (Last week: Aaron Nola, RHP, LSU)

    6. Seattle - Sean Newcomb, LHP, Hartford - (Last week: Nick Gordon, SS, Florida prep)

    7. Philadelphia - Aaron Nola, RHP, LSU - (Last week: Sean Newcomb, LHP, Hartford)

    8. Colorado - Kyle Freeland, LHP, Evansville - (Last week: No change)

    9. Toronto - Trea Turner, SS, NC State - (Last week: No change)

    10. New York Mets - Tyler Kolek, RHP, Texas prep - Once the tumble starts, there's no telling where it will stop. While I could see Kolek going to Colorado, the drop could continue to at least San Diego at 13. If it's Rodon that falls - with Kolek going at #3 - this should also be his floor. (Last week: Michael Conforto, OF, Oregon State)

    11. Toronto - Touki Toussaint, RHP, Florida prep - (Last week: Jeff Hoffman, RHP, East Carolina)

    12. Milwaukee - Grant Holmes, RHP, South Carolina prep - (Last week: No change)

    13. San Diego - Michael Conforto, OF, Oregon State - (Last week: Touki Toussaint, RHP, Florida prep)

    14. San Francisco - Luis Ortiz, RHP, California prep - (Last week: Tyler Beede, RHP, Vanderbilt)

    15. LA Angels - Tyler Beede, RHP, Vanderbilt - (Last week: Max Pentecost, C, Kennesaw State)

    16. Arizona - Max Pentecost, C, Kennesaw State - (Last week: Monte Harrison, OF, Missouri prep)

    17. Kansas City - Kodi Medeiros, LHP, Hawaii prep - (Last week: Sean Reid-Foley, RHP, Florida prep)

    18. Washington - Jeff Hoffman, RHP, East Carolina - (Last week: Bradley Zimmer, OF, San Francisco)

    19. Cincinnati - Brandon Finnegan, LHP, TCU - (Last week: Kyle Schwarber, C, Indiana)

    20. Tampa Bay - Bradley Zimmer, OF, San Francisco - (Last week: AJ Reed, 1B, Kentucky)

    21. Cleveland - Casey Gillaspie, 1B, Wichita State - (Last week: Erick Fedde, RHP, UNLV)

    22. LA Dodgers - Sean Reid-Foley, RHP, Florida prep - (Last week: Derek Hill, OF, California prep)

    23. Detroit - Nick Howard, RHP, Virginia - (Last week: Nick Burdi, RHP, Louisville)

    24. Pittsburgh - Monte Harrison, OF, Missouri prep - (Last week: Brandon Finnegan, LHP, TCU)

    25. Oakland - Ti’quan Forbes, SS, Mississippi prep - (Last week: No changes)

    26. Boston - Derek Fisher, OF, Virginia - (Last week: No change)

    27. St. Louis - Jacob Gatewood, 3B, California prep - (Last week: Kodi Medeiros, LHP, Hawaii prep)

    28. Kansas City - Erick Fedde, RHP, UNLV - (Last week: Jacob Gatewood, 3B, California prep)

    29. Cincinnati - Michael Kopech, RHP, Texas prep - (Last week: Spencer Adams, RHP, Georgia prep)

    30. Texas - Michael Chavis, 3B, Georgia prep - (Last week: Jack Flaherty, RHP, California prep)

    31. Cleveland - Derek Hill, OF, California prep - (Last week: Jacob Lindgren, LHP, Mississippi State)

    32. Atlanta - Michael Gettys, OF, Georgia prep - (Last week: No change)

    33. Boston - Spencer Adams, RHP, Georgia prep - (Last week: Luis Ortiz, RHP, California prep)

    34. St. Louis - Forrest Wall, 2B, Florida prep (Last week: Justus Sheffield, LHP, Tennessee prep)

    35. Colorado - A.J. Reed, 1B, Kentucky

    36. Miami - Luke Weaver, RHP, Florida State

    37. Houston - Nick Burdi, RHP, Louisville

    38. Cleveland - Justus Sheffield, LHP, Tennessee prep

    39. Pittsburgh - Foster Griffin, LHP, Florida prep

    40. Kansas City - Mike Papi, LF, Virginia

    41. Milwaukee - Alex Blandino, 2B, Stanford

    42. Houston - Jacob Bukauskas, RHP, Virginia prep

    43. Miami - Josh Morgan, SS, Florida prep

    44. Chicago White Sox - Matt Chapman, 3B, Fullerton

    45. Chicago Cubs - Brian Anderson, OF, Arkansas

    46. Minnesota - Cody Reed, LHP, Alabama prep


    Thanks to the Twins win over the Brewers Wednesday, it means that on Thursday you can get 50% off a Large of Extra Large pizza when you use the “TWINSWIN” promotion code at PapaJohns.com.
    Comments 17 Comments
    1. Seth Stohs's Avatar
      Seth Stohs -
      I wonder if the Twins would be willing to draft Nick Burdi again if they fell to them at 46. Part of me thinks so, and part of me just wonders if they would go for a non-reliever.
    1. curt1965's Avatar
      curt1965 -
      Jeremy- who was the Indiana kid who didn't sign with the Twins last year, and how high to you think he'll go this year?
    1. Jonathan Drayer's Avatar
      Jonathan Drayer -
      If it came down to either Kolek or Gordon at #5, I would take Kolek. Of course we all know that he has a great fastball that can reach 100 mph, but I really like his curveball and his sharp slider. I'm okay with taking Gordon at #5, but only if Kolek is off the board by then because I think Kolek is the better prospect.
    1. Buxtano Meywart's Avatar
      Buxtano Meywart -
      Quote Originally Posted by curt1965 View Post
      Jeremy- who was the Indiana kid who didn't sign with the Twins last year, and how high to you think he'll go this year?
      Dustin DeMuth. Been wondering where he may end up going as well. Hope the Twins can end up grabbing him again.
    1. nicksaviking's Avatar
      nicksaviking -
      Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
      I wonder if the Twins would be willing to draft Nick Burdi again if they fell to them at 46. Part of me thinks so, and part of me just wonders if they would go for a non-reliever.
      The Twins had a bunch of scouts at Louisville's regionals last week.
    1. Otwins's Avatar
      Otwins -
      Thanks for all your work on these articles. Very enjoyable. Schwarber hit two out at TD Ameritrade park (the home of the college world series) during the big 10 tournament. Very difficult park to hit the ball out of. The second one was a blast. I have not seen any ball leave that park quicker. Not suprised to see him moving up. MLB had Monte Harrison at 10- very athlectic player - I think he will go before 24.
    1. themattsonian's Avatar
      themattsonian -
      I really hope they don't pass on Kolek at 5. Just seems to have the highest upside to me. Gordon would be fine if Kolek is off the board.
    1. tarheeltwinsfan's Avatar
      tarheeltwinsfan -
      Jeremy, Thank you for your draft articles. They are enjoyable and informative.
    1. crarko's Avatar
      crarko -
      I'm perhaps being a sentimental fop, but I hope Sam Hentges goes with the Twins.
    1. Seth Stohs's Avatar
      Seth Stohs -
      Quote Originally Posted by crarko View Post
      I'm perhaps being a sentimental fop, but I hope Sam Hentges goes with the Twins.
      Agreed, but he may just be planning on going to college, or he'll sign for way over slot. However, the Twins are definitely not afraid to take local players.
    1. tobi0040's Avatar
      tobi0040 -
      Quote Originally Posted by crarko View Post
      I'm perhaps being a sentimental fop, but I hope Sam Hentges goes with the Twins.
      This draft has a lot of moving parts.

      I think the Cubs are pulling the ultimate smoke screen as you note. Nothing in Theo's history in Chicago or Boston suggests he is not going to draft the best player available and he doesn't care about taking the 10th best player to save money. I expect Aiken, Rodon, Jackson, or Kolek at #4.

      I don't get why all the mocks have Touki 10-13th. He is 17 years old, his fastball is in the 94 range and he has the best curve in the draft, that is almost unanimous. Sure command worries, etc. but my gut says someone in the 7-10 range won't be able to look past that.

      Then you have the Rodon thing. I personally don't think he goes back to school if he is taken 3-5. Appel going #1 was a huge coup for Boras and he will absolutely play that card, but #4 for example has a value of $4.6M and that team can pay more than that. So the risk/reward doesn't seem like it is there.

      Getting to the Twins. I hope Aiken, Rodon, Jackson, or Kolek fall and we take whoever does. But I don't expect that to happen. I think we are picking between Newcomb and Gordon. I was looking up more information on Newcomb and I stumbled on his perfect game profile from 2011 as a senior in high school. It was interesting because his fastball sat at only 86 mph. Then when I read his profile now they say he sits mid 90's and can hit 96-97 and could add velocity (guessing because he has seen it jump). I hope if we are picking between those two, we take Newcomb.

      6-5 lefty. fastball 50-65. Slider 55-70. Change 40-50. Command 40-50.
    1. mike wants wins's Avatar
      mike wants wins -
      Why Newcomb over Touki? That makes zero sense to me. If it is really to save money, how is that going to work, with more than a half dozen teams having multiple picks in front of them.

      IF it played out the way you suggest, I'd take Rodon, Gordon, Touki, ? in that order.
    1. tobi0040's Avatar
      tobi0040 -
      Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
      Why Newcomb over Touki? That makes zero sense to me. If it is really to save money, how is that going to work, with more than a half dozen teams having multiple picks in front of them.

      IF it played out the way you suggest, I'd take Rodon, Gordon, Touki, ? in that order.
      For me I prefer Newcomb because he is a lefty, 3 inches taller, and has 2-3 more mph on the fastball. Touki's curve is rated slightly higher than Newcomb's slider, but those other things are key.
    1. LewFordLives's Avatar
      LewFordLives -
      Jeremy: Is there anything you can say about why you believe that's the Twins draft board? Is it your own analysis based on various bits and pieces leaked from the front office, open media sources, or do you have an "inside source"?
    1. jed54767's Avatar
      jed54767 -
      No way they take Toukki at 5. Too much risk and his price tag has been reported to be very high (most likely because of his Vandy commitment). Has upside but I wouldn't like that pick.

      Newcomb should and needs to be our guy. We lack LHP and if we can add one who resembles Jon Lester then why not? He would sign for slot money and we could come back round 2 and grab the prep pitcher if we want.

      I think the only 3 I would take before Newcomb are Jackson, Aiken, and Rodon. But I don't see them falling. My personal fave in this draft is Schwarber but he just doesn't fit the Twins needs.

      I see Theo sitting at #4 waiting for Rodon to fall in his lap.

      Let's go Twins!! Happy Draft Day!
    1. twinsfan34's Avatar
      twinsfan34 -
      Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
      I wonder if the Twins would be willing to draft Nick Burdi again if they fell to them at 46. Part of me thinks so, and part of me just wonders if they would go for a non-reliever.

      I would side (and hope) for a non-reliever. JT Chargois and Luke Bard were similar pick. Throws hard, but never would amount to a starter. I think most people (you included) tend to say, go with the hard throwing starter, if he can't develop a 3rd pitch, he can throw 2 pitches as a reliever or one if it's a plus-plus cutter, e.g. Jansen (LAD) and Rivera (NYY).

      Hoping for high upside HS player who fell or a college SP who fell (a la Sean Manaea circa 2013).
    1. twinsfan34's Avatar
      twinsfan34 -
      Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
      This draft has a lot of moving parts.

      Then you have the Rodon thing. I personally don't think he goes back to school if he is taken 3-5. Appel going #1 was a huge coup for Boras and he will absolutely play that card, but #4 for example has a value of $4.6M and that team can pay more than that. So the risk/reward doesn't seem like it is there.
      Yeah, I can't see Rodon not signing. He has some leverage this year...but wouldn't have much next year. Teams don't lose their pick anymore like the Twins did with Travis Lee...so teams aren't quite forced like they had been in the past, either.

      I hope the Twins take the guy they like, signability concerns out the window, they can always draft #6 next year.
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