• Gleeman & the Geek Ep 50: Waving the White Flag

    Aaron and John talk about once again rooting for the worst team in the league, why Francisco Liriano is like religion, what defines an "A" or "B" prospect in trade talks, how passing on Mark Appel makes even more sense now, celebrating our 50th episode, Matt Capps' return, Carl Pavano's non-return, Aaron's refined drinking habits, and a whole bunch of mailbag questions from listeners via Twitter. Here are:



    This article was originally published in blog: Gleeman & the Geek Ep 50: Waving the White Flag started by John Bonnes
    Comments 14 Comments
    1. @_2244's Avatar
      @_2244 -
      Did I hear correctly that Liriano is not a headcase?
    1. Seth Stohs's Avatar
      Seth Stohs -
      I think there was a `10-12 minute discussion on that very topic.
    1. @_2244's Avatar
      @_2244 -
      After listening to this podcast again, I guess I can conclude that I am a non-analytical person. I couldn't disagree more with the notion that Liriano is not a headcase.
    1. jeffk's Avatar
      jeffk -
      Yeah, I think Aaron was arguing that the variation in Lirano's performance is normal. It's probably a question that could be answered quantitatively, for example, what does the run distribution by inning for a typical starting pitcher look like? Perhaps for a guy with a ~5 ERA it's something like 0 1 0 2 0 1 0, for example (specifically, you'd be looking at the standard deviation of runs by inning). For Liriano, every time it seems to be 0 0 0 0 0 0 5. It's hard to say for sure, but I would guess that either he's a head case or there's something about his pitching style that makes huge innings more likely.
    1. Boom Boom's Avatar
      Boom Boom -
      Quote Originally Posted by jeffk View Post
      Yeah, I think Aaron was arguing that the variation in Lirano's performance is normal. It's probably a question that could be answered quantitatively, for example, what does the run distribution by inning for a typical starting pitcher look like? Perhaps for a guy with a ~5 ERA it's something like 0 1 0 2 0 1 0, for example (specifically, you'd be looking at the standard deviation of runs by inning). For Liriano, every time it seems to be 0 0 0 0 0 0 5. It's hard to say for sure, but I would guess that either he's a head case or there's something about his pitching style that makes huge innings more likely.
      Part of it might be that he's struggling with his mechanics more when pitching out of the stretch.

      For his career, hitters' OPS against Liriano improves from .659 to .761 when there are runners on.
    1. snepp's Avatar
      snepp -
      Quote Originally Posted by Boom Boom View Post
      For his career, hitters' OPS against Liriano improves from .659 to .761 when there are runners on.
      Compared to the league average increase, which is only 30-ish points.
    1. Boom Boom's Avatar
      Boom Boom -
      Quote Originally Posted by snepp View Post
      Compared to the league average increase, which is only 30-ish points.
      Right, just about every pitcher is somewhat worse with runners on. But the difference with bases empty and with runners on for Liriano would indicate that either having runners on gets in his head, or pitching out of the stretch makes it more difficult for him to locate his pitches. Or, most likely, some of both.
    1. @_2244's Avatar
      @_2244 -
      Liriano has a UHR of 96.8 out of a scale of 100. League average is 21.4 for pitchers, so he is wayyyy ahead of the curve here.
    1. John Bonnes's Avatar
      John Bonnes -
      Quote Originally Posted by @_2244 View Post
      Liriano has a UHR of 96.8 out of a scale of 100. League average is 21.4 for pitchers, so he is wayyyy ahead of the curve here.
      What is UHR? Ultimate Headcase Rating?
    1. Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
      Brock Beauchamp -
      Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post
      What is UHR? Ultimate Headcase Rating?
      Meh, everybody knows that Ultimate Headcase Rating numbers aren't reliable until the player has played at least three consecutive seasons with a live chicken strapped to his head.

      edit: Son of a bitch...

      Attachment 1570
    1. @_2244's Avatar
      @_2244 -
      Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post
      What is UHR? Ultimate Headcase Rating?
      Bingo.
    1. BrentMpls's Avatar
      BrentMpls -
      Quote Originally Posted by rocketpig View Post
      Meh, everybody knows that Ultimate Headcase Rating numbers aren't reliable until the player has played at least three consecutive seasons with a live chicken strapped to his head.

      edit: Son of a bitch...

      Attachment 1570
      Will the chicken help him keep his balance, reducing the chance of falling over?
    1. mike wants wins's Avatar
      mike wants wins -
      The point isn't that Liriano isn't a headcase, the point is that giving up a HR in that game is not PROOF that he is a headcase. That when he gives up runs, it is not necessarily because he is a headcase. That was the point.....

      Either way, another good episode.
    1. diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
      diehardtwinsfan -
      the occasional HR isn't the reason, it's the sudden inability to find the strike zone.
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