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mnfireman

2013 Payroll

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There have been alot of posts on here about all the money coming off the books next year. Let's take a look at the real numbers, as I have done on a couple off occassions this year.

The team currently has 8 players under contract for next year and they will earn $63.8 M

The team team has 4 arbitration eligible players that are estimated to receive $20 M. We are at 12 players and $83.8 M.

The team has 2 players, Matt Capps and Scott Baker, with team options totalling $15.25 M. The smart thing to do would be to decline these, meaning we need to fill 13 spots. Using players that are in the system at the pre-arbitration average we get $9.43 M. We are at 25 players and $93.2 M.

The team loses Pavano, Liriano, Doumit & Marquis (already DFA'd). Declining the Capps and Baker options means the team needs 3 SP's, a closer, and a DH/C. Remember also that Blackburn receives (not earns) $5.5 M and Nishioka $3 M. Removing Burroughs, Thomas and Hughes frees up about $1.6 M, pushing payroll back to about $91.6 M.

I can see the logic that people are using to dream about Greinke, Hamels, Sanchez, etc... but unless payroll goes up to $120 M - $125 M, I only see about $8.4 M to sign FA's.

Beginning to look like they are "Target"ing 2014 when estimated payroll drops to about $75 M, but Morneau, Blackburn, Nishioka, Casilla and Carroll become free agents.

EDIT: I used Baseball-Reference's payroll tool. It estimated the Twins arbitration total at $20 M using 3 year averages. However, Casilla, Duensing, Burton and Burroughs will not get $20 M, closer to $6M. Also I missed Gray being arb. eligible and he probably won't get an offer. These new numbers make me feel that the team picks up Capps $6 M option, putting payroll around $82 M, which leaves $18 M to get to $100 M. I apologize for not being thorough the first time through.

Updated 06-16-2012 at 08:19 AM by mnfireman

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Comments

  1. clutterheart's Avatar
    Where do you get your arbitration estimate from?
    I think Their finial arbitration number could be under 6 million not 20.
    I doubt they tender Casilla
    No way Butera gets more than minimum
    Duensing Burton and Burnett will get raises but not much more than 1 -2 mil a year.
  2. greengoblinrulz's Avatar
    severely disagree with the numbers. Casilla wont get more than 2m...Duensing/Burton 1.5...Burnett/Butera 900k....that's 6.8m NOT 20m.
    There will massive amounts of money to spend IF they want to. AGAIN, its not about spending money....but rather to spend it wisely.
  3. roger's Avatar
    Who are the four arbitration eligible players who will get $20mm?
  4. mnfireman's Avatar
    I was using baseball-reference's payroll tool. It gives a rough estimate using 3 year averages. Going back and lookingnat the players, it will not be $20 M. Casilla and Duensing will get the biggest amounts, Burton will get a contract and Burroughs will be released. I will amend that to $5 M, putting payroll down around $76.5 M. I threw this together quickly last night and didn't check the actual arb. eiligible players. That being said, with this new $76.5 M number I think the team exercises Capps option because he's a guy who "battles his tail off", plus I missed Gray probably not getting offered arbitration. That puts total payroll around $82 M, leaving $18 M to get to $100 M. This assumes no qualifying offers to Pavano and Liriano, because that would screw things up if either accepted, and no trades this season. I apologize for not doing my full homework on this assignment.
  5. Brandon's Avatar
    Why doesn't someone post players list and their correspoding salaries or estimates for next year so we can all see all of the calculations and discuss from there.
  6. Brandon's Avatar
    If Capps continues to pich the way he has so far this year. The Twins will pick up his option. Management likes him and he has been effective and 6 million isn't necessarily that much for a closer.
  7. mnfireman's Avatar
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/te...ool#payroll::8

    I couldn't get the table too paste with just 2013 salary.
  8. twinslover's Avatar
    The payroll for '13 is to about 70 million if you assume 8 or so players not yet eligible for arbitration are on the team opening day and the twins don't offer arbitration to anyone or pick up any options. The non arb eligible players I would think make it are dozier, plouffe, revere, swarzak, burnett, gray, hendriks, parmelee and gibson probably will be if healthy. I'm really not sure about valencia, waldrop, butera, manship, or slama so I'll leave them off. The pre arbitration average used by baseball reference isn't accurate for the guys I've listed either, so with 8 - 10 pre arb players on the roster the team is around 70mil in payroll and would have 8 - 10 roster spots open. Of the 4 arbitration eligible players, I'd guess they offer to Duensing and Burton if they don't just sign them. I don't think they'll offer to casilla or burroughs. The only free agent I can see them maybe bringing back is doumit at the right price. I'm guessing they will pick up Capps option if he is still here. If you add in capps and the two arb players I think they'll bring back the payroll is going to be around 80 mil at that point and there will still be 5 -7 roster spots open. My guess is they fill most of those with cheap free agents and non arb eligible players and the payroll ends up around 85 - 90 mil.
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