by, 06-15-2012 at 11:56 PM (1629 Views)
There have been alot of posts on here about all the money coming off the books next year. Let's take a look at the real numbers, as I have done on a couple off occassions this year.
The team currently has 8 players under contract for next year and they will earn $63.8 M
The team team has 4 arbitration eligible players that are estimated to receive $20 M. We are at 12 players and $83.8 M.
The team has 2 players, Matt Capps and Scott Baker, with team options totalling $15.25 M. The smart thing to do would be to decline these, meaning we need to fill 13 spots. Using players that are in the system at the pre-arbitration average we get $9.43 M. We are at 25 players and $93.2 M.
The team loses Pavano, Liriano, Doumit & Marquis (already DFA'd). Declining the Capps and Baker options means the team needs 3 SP's, a closer, and a DH/C. Remember also that Blackburn receives (not earns) $5.5 M and Nishioka $3 M. Removing Burroughs, Thomas and Hughes frees up about $1.6 M, pushing payroll back to about $91.6 M.
I can see the logic that people are using to dream about Greinke, Hamels, Sanchez, etc... but unless payroll goes up to $120 M - $125 M, I only see about $8.4 M to sign FA's.
Beginning to look like they are "Target"ing 2014 when estimated payroll drops to about $75 M, but Morneau, Blackburn, Nishioka, Casilla and Carroll become free agents.
EDIT: I used Baseball-Reference's payroll tool. It estimated the Twins arbitration total at $20 M using 3 year averages. However, Casilla, Duensing, Burton and Burroughs will not get $20 M, closer to $6M. Also I missed Gray being arb. eligible and he probably won't get an offer. These new numbers make me feel that the team picks up Capps $6 M option, putting payroll around $82 M, which leaves $18 M to get to $100 M. I apologize for not being thorough the first time through.